American Politics Discussion

[Dr. Gonzo]

1 hour ago, RandoEFC said:

While this remains concerning, it can be rationalised to an extent. Polarising, divisive, culture war politics was/is at its peak at the moment and Trump was at the centre of it. An environment like this where supporters of both sides are so scared of the alternative is always going to mobilise voters. Luckily for everyone (even those who wouldn't agree) he mobilised more voters against him than he did in his favour and he also had the most votes against him of any candidate ever (I believe) if you wanted to look at it that way too. 

I'm also sceptical of Trump's ability to build a bigger base over the next 4 years, and of the Republican Party's ability to build back without cutting ties with him and his wing of the party. I think they're currently scared that they'd lose more Trumpian voters than the moderates they'd win back by ditching his agenda. They might be right, but even if Trump broke off and made his own party to run in 2024, he could never win on his own without all of the automatic Republican votes that he'd lose by running as part of a different party.

It's understandable to see why Trump and the party think that sticking together is their best chance of winning the Presidency back, even if in my opinion, unless Biden and co fuck up real, real bad, that's little to no chance at all. It's a huge gamble to stick with Trumpian politics into 2024 and it's asking a lot of those followers to stay as emotionally invested as they are now for four years. Victory isn't impossible on that route I suppose but it seems better from their point of view to rip the band aid off and start to win back both moderate voters and some of those that Trump takes with him in time to have a foundation for 2024.

I think if anyone's going to fuck things up for the Democrats, it's going to be the Senate Democrats that do it more than anything Biden does. The 50-50 split of senators and the moderate democrats from deep red states (and even in some swing states) sort of creates an opportunity for Republican obstruction with support from these moderate democrats. Although I do think the word "moderate" for democrat needs to be adjusted a bit when they're against policies that 60-80% of people in the country support  - because being against stuff with big support from the public isn't really very moderate.

[Harry]

14 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I mean if they can’t win without moderate support... they should probably just do what most parties do in democracies and adapt to society changing.

Honestly think Bush v gore remains the most damaging result for sliding doors moments in US history.

For the GOP too. It was the wrong kind of success.

14 hours ago, Viva la FCB said:

See this what I dont understand. His base was at its absolute peak. There is no chance after Jan 6 that his base grows, and even at his peak he still lost the presidency, the house and the senate. Why would they support him still I dont know man. 

They lost by 50k votes in November. Electoral law changes to reduce the chance of "fraud" are being put forward in states that will be needed for Dems to win (limiting turnout), and nobody really likes Kamala Harris.

For me Trump could win in 2024 if he hasn't been neutered by business failings or legal troubles, but less likely than a more Trump friendly conservative like desantis. But the party base like Trump more.

 

 

[Devil-Dick Willie]

On 10/03/2021 at 08:45, Harry said:

Mob dogs do that.... Further evidence of the Biden crime family track record of corruption and violence.

You're an absolute whopper sometimes 

[Harry]

30 minutes ago, Devil-Dick Willie said:

You're an absolute whopper sometimes 

I was quoting Donald Trump Juniors Twitter account. 

[Viva la FCB+]

11 hours ago, Harry said:

They lost by 50k votes in November. Electoral law changes to reduce the chance of "fraud" are being put forward in states that will be needed for Dems to win (limiting turnout), and nobody really likes Kamala Harris.

For me Trump could win in 2024 if he hasn't been neutered by business failings or legal troubles, but less likely than a more Trump friendly conservative like desantis. But the party base like Trump more.

 

 

Where did he lose by 50k votes? He lost the electoral college by the same margin he refered to as a "landslide" in 2016 like 302 to 2xx whatever it was and the popular vote by nearly 8 million total? I also think Kamal Harris is immensely popular I dont know where you get that from either.

Edited March 13, 2021 by Viva la FCB

[Harry]

3 hours ago, Viva la FCB said:

Where did he lose by 50k votes? He lost the electoral college by the same margin he refered to as a "landslide" in 2016 like 302 to 2xx whatever it was and the popular vote by nearly 8 million total? I also think Kamal Harris is immensely popular I dont know where you get that from either.

The combined margin in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin that delivered him the electoral college win.

If he'd lost those 50k votes he'd have won the popular election by 7m but still lost 268-270.

These states plus Michigan and Pennsylvania, which are all about 5% more conservative leaning than the nation as a whole will decide the next election. A Democrat from "radically liberal" California will usually not play well in these states.

[RandoEFC+]

2 hours ago, Harry said:

The combined margin in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin that delivered him the electoral college win.

If he'd lost those 50k votes he'd have won the popular election by 7m but still lost 268-270.

These states plus Michigan and Pennsylvania, which are all about 5% more conservative leaning than the nation as a whole will decide the next election. A Democrat from "radically liberal" California will usually not play well in these states.

This assessment relies on an assumption that everything else remains more or less unchanged politically for the best part of four years which simply isn't credible. Swinging 50,000 votes because Harris is less palatable than Biden in some key swing states isn't an unreasonable prediction but nothing else changing is unrealistic. Nobody can say with any certainty now what the permutations and coalitions will look like in 2024. We will see...

[Harry]

1 hour ago, RandoEFC said:

This assessment relies on an assumption that everything else remains more or less unchanged politically for the best part of four years which simply isn't credible. Swinging 50,000 votes because Harris is less palatable than Biden in some key swing states isn't an unreasonable prediction but nothing else changing is unrealistic. Nobody can say with any certainty now what the permutations and coalitions will look like in 2024. We will see...

Agreed. It also ignores what's changed already since November such as the Jan 6 events, and the stolen election lie, where the evidence from Georgia was significant poll movement between the two points.

However the rural (conservative) bias in both senate and electoral college, and the importance of winning battleground states should not be underestimated.

[Viva la FCB+]

7 hours ago, Harry said:

The combined margin in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin that delivered him the electoral college win.

If he'd lost those 50k votes he'd have won the popular election by 7m but still lost 268-270.

These states plus Michigan and Pennsylvania, which are all about 5% more conservative leaning than the nation as a whole will decide the next election. A Democrat from "radically liberal" California will usually not play well in these states.

I mean thats pretty hard semantics, he didnt need to win all 3 of those states to win but I dont think its nearly as fragile as your believing. The other side of this is I very much doubt Trumps base is growing at this point but that remains to be seen for sure I suppose.

[Harry]

 

[Harry]

An amazing legal defence offered by the Kraken, in the $1.3 billion defamation case launched against her by dominion voting systems....

 

[Viva la FCB+]

On 23/03/2021 at 03:33, Harry said:

An amazing legal defence offered by the Kraken, in the $1.3 billion defamation case launched against her by dominion voting systems....

 

The funny part is this is exactly how Fox's legal team defended Tucker Carlson, Ill add in the quotes. Basically saying any of his reasonable viewers know his takes are all opinion based. Crazy stuff. I dont know why its putting lines through the quotes but anyways thats them.

Quote

""Fox persuasively argues, that given Mr. Carlson's reputation, any reasonable viewer 'arrive with an appropriate amount of skepticism' about the statement he makes"

"The context of Maddow's statement shows reasonable viewers would consider the contested statement to be opinion."

The "'general tenor' of the show should then inform a viewer that [Carlson] is not 'stating actual facts' about the topics he discusses and is instead engaging in 'exaggeration' and 'non-literal commentary.' "

Edited March 24, 2021 by Viva la FCB

[Stan]

A car has rammed in to the Capitol building security barriers. One officer died sadly. 

The guy driving the vehicle got out brandishing a knife and then got shot dead. 

Literally personifying the phrase 'bringing a knife to a gun fight' and paying the price for stupidity. 

[Viva la FCB+]

God its good to hear from this man again. As usual hes absolutely 100% bang on and tapped in. I do think hes a little wrong on the crisis scale though, its without a doubt crisis time.

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

14 minutes ago, Viva la FCB said:

God its good to hear from this man again. As usual hes absolutely 100% bang on and tapped in. I do think hes a little wrong on the crisis scale though, its without a doubt crisis time.

 

I agree with him... and with you.

American politics is an absolute shitshow. Republican states are passing restrictive voting laws, with the goal of preventing ethnic minorities and poor people generally from being able to vote as easily, Biden's administration is being held up by a democrat in the senate that thinks his party should move more to the right to meet an increasingly radical GOP in the middle. And a concerning amount of democrats are doing nothing while American democracy slowly eats itself alive.

The GOP is so far away from what it was not that long ago, and it is scary how much of the party's establishment have moved more and more radical with their base. 

[Viva la FCB+]

41 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I agree with him... and with you.

American politics is an absolute shitshow. Republican states are passing restrictive voting laws, with the goal of preventing ethnic minorities and poor people generally from being able to vote as easily, Biden's administration is being held up by a democrat in the senate that thinks his party should move more to the right to meet an increasingly radical GOP in the middle. And a concerning amount of democrats are doing nothing while American democracy slowly eats itself alive.

The GOP is so far away from what it was not that long ago, and it is scary how much of the party's establishment have moved more and more radical with their base. 

Its really kinda scary man. You have Dem's like Joe Manchin literally voting down his own bill on voting rights that he cosponsored a couple years back on the grounds that the GOP doesnt like it. I focus on him because hes one of the main culprits in dieing on the hill over the filibuster and literally preventing the Dem's from getting shit done. He claims to believe in bi partisanship yet the evil fucking tortoise McConnel puiblically states he will do everything in his power to block everything the Dem's try and pass.

Im ranting now but anyways the voting rights stuff is really, really scary. They're trying to eradicate democracy and not only that they are doing it in nearly plainsight. And your'e right not only is it in plainsight but not nearly enough Dem's are speaking out about it. The new networks such as ABC, MSNBC, CNN etc do call alot of the shit out but the biggest problem now is noone that supports or votes for these cretins see's any of these messages anymore and if they do facts are easily dismissable as "fake news" They watch Newsmax or Fox news and take everything said there as gospel as their fearless der leader speaks bullshit from Florida. Fox literally didnt cover the impeachment Im fucking flabergasted at that. And to their credit the Dem's did a fantastic job at the impeachment and I wish more of the GOP supporters actually paid any attention to that. 

You're bang on again though this GOP to borrow a phrase from Cuomo isnt that of old they are the Retrumplicans plain and simple. When Liz fucking Cheney isnt conservative enough and being forced out of their party what the actual fuck is going on. Like Obama says though its actually shocking how many of these cretins tuck their balls between their legs and go full Retrumplican to keep their jobs without a second thought. When Margarie Taylor fuckface still has a voice and isnt condemed for the verbal diarrhea thats constantly shitting out all over the public and the Country there just is no hope.

Edited June 8, 2021 by Viva la FCB

[Harry]

So many of the GOP members were bad faith actors long before this latest wave of Trump. Shills appointed by big business backers to occupy a senate position in a red state.

[Dr. Gonzo]

11 hours ago, Harry said:

So many of the GOP members were bad faith actors long before this latest wave of Trump. Shills appointed by big business backers to occupy a senate position in a red state.

Yeah but centrists like Manchin and Sinema don’t come off looking much better. They look owned by the same businesses and rich people as the GOP.

[Harry]

5 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Yeah but centrists like Manchin and Sinema don’t come off looking much better. They look owned by the same businesses and rich people as the GOP.

Yeah agreed. It's not just an overblown liberal freakout, there really is a fight for democracy. Trump might be too inept to pull it off but a more clever person who recognises that the GOP base have the strongest ideological resonance towards rebellion against democrats and rejection of expertise can harness that to much more dangerous effect. And when you consider that the majority of GOP politicians for years have worked for the big money corporations and found democracy inconvenient and something to be worked around, you see the peril that is there. 

Every forner Republican president except Trump is more politically aligned with Biden democrats than the current GOP, and the centre right college educated types have recognised that. For now the lunatics are running the asylum, and many of the politicians who are still there are just holding on for the ride.

[Cicero]

Juneteenth finally recongised as a holiday in the states. 
 

Long overdue. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

43 minutes ago, Cicero said:

Juneteenth finally recongised as a holiday in the states. 
 

Long overdue. 

Wtf is Juneteenth? I know it's meant to be tomorrow... but the name is so vague it could be anything between June 13th-19th... and that's all I know about it.

[Stan]

 

 

 

[Stan]

9 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Wtf is Juneteenth? I know it's meant to be tomorrow... but the name is so vague it could be anything between June 13th-19th... and that's all I know about it.

I'll admit I thought it was some dumb fad of a bank holiday. Genuinely never heard of it before so I'll happily hold my hands up for my ignorance.

Just seen on BBC it's to celebrate the liberation of slaves in Texas. 19th June 1865. Texas was the last state slavery was still in place and this date is seen as the end of slavery in USA as it was the final place to stop it. 

14 Republicans were against this being recognised as an official holiday. 415 votes were in favour of it .

[Dr. Gonzo]

9 hours ago, Stan said:

I'll admit I thought it was some dumb fad of a bank holiday. Genuinely never heard of it before so I'll happily hold my hands up for my ignorance.

Just seen on BBC it's to celebrate the liberation of slaves in Texas. 19th June 1865. Texas was the last state slavery was still in place and this date is seen as the end of slavery in USA as it was the final place to stop it. 

14 Republicans were against this being recognised as an official holiday. 415 votes were in favour of it .

Yeah after asking the question I just googled it... and it made me feel ignorant as fuck. But tbf, I never really learned much about US history... so I'm not surprised I'd never heard of it.

I think it's pretty shameful that even in the senate 100% of Republicans voted for it, but in the house those 14 were against it. Especially the Texans that voted against recognising it - almost as though they're proud to have been the state to cling to slavery the longest.

I do think it's funny though that they've ultimately voted to give themselves a holiday, as most people working in America aren't going to get Juneteenth off unless they're government employees. Makes me think the senate republicans, many of whom have been pretty openly racist, decided this would look good for them (it's easy to claim those that voted against it being a holiday are racist, so now they can say "look I'm not racist, I supported Juneteenth being a holiday) and figured by voting for it yesterday... they wouldn't have to bother to turn up to work today.

[Cicero]

Depends on the organization. I know some businesses let their employees off on Martin Luther King Jr. Day and other businesses don't.