UK Politics & Brexit Discussion

[Dr. Gonzo]

What I don’t understand about wanting a No Deal Brexit is... we will eventually have to make a trade deal with the EU, they’re our biggest trading partner. So it just seems to me that step 1 for the government would be... negotiating a fucking deal with Europe. And to me, hobbling our economy right from the off doesn’t really put us in a strong negotiation position.

Granted, May’s deal is shit. And I don’t think we should be taking that. But I don’t think No Deal and the aftermath of that will be particularly great for the UK in the short term, in that I think the EU can play nice on the one hand with things like their finance sector “equivalence” scheme; but I fear their end goal will be to poach our financial services sector away from London. And obviously that will have long term effects, losing the industry that makes up most of the GDP. And then there’s been the EU, which this whole time has had most of the leverage in Brexit negotiations, saying they’re not going to negotiate beyond May’s shite deal.

So we’ve got two bad leave options. And that’s what most voters voted for, to leave. So to go back on that and you’ve got just over half the country pissed off that politicians shat on their votes.

I think no matter how you slice it, overall most people won’t be happy with the end result. At this point we just need it to happen, stumble through the aftermath - which is guaranteed to be a shitshow - and then we can move on.

[SirBalon]

7 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

What I don’t understand about wanting a No Deal Brexit is... we will eventually have to make a trade deal with the EU, they’re our biggest trading partner. So it just seems to me that step 1 for the government would be... negotiating a fucking deal with Europe. And to me, hobbling our economy right from the off doesn’t really put us in a strong negotiation position.

Granted, May’s deal is shit. And I don’t think we should be taking that. But I don’t think No Deal and the aftermath of that will be particularly great for the UK in the short term, in that I think the EU can play nice on the one hand with things like their finance sector “equivalence” scheme; but I fear their end goal will be to poach our financial services sector away from London. And obviously that will have long term effects, losing the industry that makes up most of the GDP. And then there’s been the EU, which this whole time has had most of the leverage in Brexit negotiations, saying they’re not going to negotiate beyond May’s shite deal.

So we’ve got two bad leave options. And that’s what most voters voted for, to leave. So to go back on that and you’ve got just over half the country pissed off that politicians shat on their votes.

I think no matter how you slice it, overall most people won’t be happy with the end result. At this point we just need it to happen, stumble through the aftermath - which is guaranteed to be a shitshow - and then we can move on.

I know we've been through this already (this very week I think) where I told you that May's Deal is THE ONLY deal available considering her red lines (something you responded to me with "why not take away the red lines" and I told you that one of them was abolishing FOM and that one is non-negotiable due to the fact it's what most Brexit voters that comtinue to maintain the status quo voted for)... There is no other deal, the EU said there would be no more negotiations and they proved it by letting bypass two seperate departure dates without flinching.

Now let me add one more fact... There will be NO MORE NEGOTIATIONS for any other deal with the EU no matter who wins the Tory leadership for two seperate factors. 1, they said there would be no more negotiations and they've proved that and 2, we've just had the EU Elections which means the EU are due to select their new setup in September while the date set for our departure in now on the 31st of October which comes before September... Who are Boris or Jeremy going to negotiate with? More fabrications, more rhetoric from the Tories due to their leadership challenge which holds this sort of rhetoric so as to appeal to the 170k or so Tory Members that will be selecting their new leader. They're selling thmeselves and they're selling more Unicorns like the ones they've been selling for over three years now.

I just can't believe anyone still thinks or believes there could ever have been any other outcome to negotiations for a departure from the EU. Negotiations will ALWAYS offer only one outcome with any agreement if we are to gain access to the Single Market or the Customs Union without actually being members of either and that outcome is to offer control to the EU without (emphasis on WITHOUT) the benefits of being a member state and having a say in the confectioning and implementation of regulations. We would be an orphan nation that belongs to the continent where the biggest and most powerful trading block on the planet resides.

There is no happy outcome, there are no "Sunny Uplands" to experience because all of that was a fallacy, a lie, pure fabrication. The EU only just today finally signed a trade agreement with Latin America, the second most powerful trading block on the planet. That trade agreement took 20 YEARS to negotiate... Let me repeat that for those that think trade agreements with the EU are simple due to quality controls and regulations that PROTECT its 500 million citizens... IT TOOK 20 YEARS TO NEGOTIATE! and it's finally been agreed. Has anyone heard of MERCOSUR? Yeah, another one in the bag! This makes a laughing stock of that WTO crap they also continue to sell to the fools that don't get hand on book and try to learn something ignoring the bullshit they sell us. The EU has trade agreements with practically the whole planet and we want to go out on our own into the wilderness that is WTO with absolutely no trade agreements to our name (consequently we'd be the ONLY country on earth to be in that position and we would be competing against our neighbours, not that they'd see us as competition as we found out when we tested the waters with a trade agreement with Japan only a few months ago and they sent us packing with our tail between our legs when we requested similar conditions to those they have with the EU... They laughed and called us crazy if we thought they'd piss the EU off by offering a better deal to a country on its own with not even 2% of what the EU have to offer them.

Come on Gonzo mate! Don't question these things, don't think there's any secret or miraculous solution to any form of Brexit. It's impossible. Every departure possibility from the EU leaves us poorer with a No Deal being the worst of them all, a situation that would leave the UK crippled.

[Dr. Gonzo]

I think I’m resigned to the UK just being on the periphery as a world power now, there were chances to avoid it - but clearly people don’t want to avoid it. After three years and a piss poor deal that will never pass parliament to show for it, resulting in Brexit killing another PM and giving us one of two complete bellends to run the country through a tough time with a completely split electorate.

There isn’t going to be a second referendum before the deadline. May’s deal won’t be approved by the UK. The EU won’t go out of their way to devastate us economically, especially just as the dust settles. They need us, we need them. But it is now in their interest to poach our industries. The UK will still make trade deals, but without the collective economic strength of the EU with us, we’ll be making deals with other countries with less bargaining power.

There will be a recession and austerity, which I’m obviously opposed to. But it won’t be the end of the world. And both of the grifters vying for the PM job are promising tax cuts on the wealthy, setting the stage for some disaster capitalism and pushing income disparity further. Maybe that’ll wake people the fuck up to the lies they were told, maybe not.

[Fairy In Boots]

4 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

What I don’t understand about wanting a No Deal Brexit is... we will eventually have to make a trade deal with the EU, they’re our biggest trading partner. So it just seems to me that step 1 for the government would be... negotiating a fucking deal with Europe. And to me, hobbling our economy right from the off doesn’t really put us in a strong negotiation position.

Granted, May’s deal is shit. And I don’t think we should be taking that. But I don’t think No Deal and the aftermath of that will be particularly great for the UK in the short term, in that I think the EU can play nice on the one hand with things like their finance sector “equivalence” scheme; but I fear their end goal will be to poach our financial services sector away from London. And obviously that will have long term effects, losing the industry that makes up most of the GDP. And then there’s been the EU, which this whole time has had most of the leverage in Brexit negotiations, saying they’re not going to negotiate beyond May’s shite deal.

So we’ve got two bad leave options. And that’s what most voters voted for, to leave. So to go back on that and you’ve got just over half the country pissed off that politicians shat on their votes.

I think no matter how you slice it, overall most people won’t be happy with the end result. At this point we just need it to happen, stumble through the aftermath - which is guaranteed to be a shitshow - and then we can move on.

My preference for a No deal stems from the principle that the negotiations have been awful from day 1, no deal damages the EU also and they’re far more likely to offer a better deal rather than their hardball stance when it’s hitting them in the pocket. It’s essentially a political game of chicken now they don’t want to flinch and we surrendered the impetus from day one, I suspect both parties will compromise when it’s having a negative impact on them. I could be wrong but logically you would think this to be the case. 

@SirBalon

I don’t read them mate maybe the first sentence but then I zone out, save yourself the trouble, there’s another hour long rant up there probably took you well past midnight. There’s more to life

[Dr. Gonzo]

6 hours ago, Fairy In Boots said:

My preference for a No deal stems from the principle that the negotiations have been awful from day 1, no deal damages the EU also and they’re far more likely to offer a better deal rather than their hardball stance when it’s hitting them in the pocket. It’s essentially a political game of chicken now they don’t want to flinch and we surrendered the impetus from day one, I suspect both parties will compromise when it’s having a negative impact on them. I could be wrong but logically you would think this to be the case. 

@SirBalon

I don’t read them mate maybe the first sentence but then I zone out, save yourself the trouble, there’s another hour long rant up there probably took you well past midnight. There’s more to life

I’d agree with you, but the EU will be hit in the pocket with deal or no deal. 

[SirBalon]

4 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I’d agree with you, but the EU will be hit in the pocket with deal or no deal. 

With a deal the EU’s hit is negligible (I read a detailed report from a US economist some months back) but with No Deal the hit would be considerably higher but our hit in the UK pays no resemblance to this as we WILL SUFFER massively. Plus the EU are totally prepared for No Deal which has reduced many problems they’ll suffer financially with a No Deal.

[Dr. Gonzo]

49 minutes ago, SirBalon said:

With a deal the EU’s hit is negligible (I read a detailed report from a US economist some months back) but with No Deal the hit would be considerably higher but our hit in the UK pays no resemblance to this as we WILL SUFFER massively. Plus the EU are totally prepared for No Deal which has reduced many problems they’ll suffer financially with a No Deal.

Well yeah, that’s the entire point of making a deal with the EU before leaving. The EU has been saying to expect no deal for over a year, so no doubt they have plans in place - like the equivalency program for our financial services sector to continue doing business with the EU (though under that plan Brussels can unilaterally end the program, so our financial services industries will be at the EU’s mercy - which is why many people are predicting the EU will keep this program in place while they entice firms to leave the UK).

And because May and her gaggle of morons that couldn’t really negotiate a deal have boxed us in with their shit deal, yet the Tories don’t want to face reality and believe we will leave with a better deal, despite the EU basically telling us to do one, I’m fairly confident we’ll be exiting with no deal. And with no plans in place for no deal, because that’s the kind of leadership we’ve got.

I feel for the young people in the UK having a hard time trying to get their lives together with these stagnant wages. When people point to improved employment statistics, I will keep pointing to the low wages in the UK. And unfortunately I think for them to improve their lives more people will do what I did, chase better wages that allow for upward mobility, for the same exact work abroad and plan to come back some other time.

[SirBalon]

7 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

And because May and her gaggle of morons

That’s “May and the ERG” mate. That gaggle of morons you mention are the ones that had her at the mercy of madness because that’s where the large proportion of Brexit Voters and extremist supporters stem from. May did the best she could with the red lines that had to be adhered to from the ERG.

[Dr. Gonzo]

14 minutes ago, SirBalon said:

That’s “May and the ERG” mate. That gaggle of morons you mention are the ones that had her at the mercy of madness because that’s where the large proportion of Brexit Voters and extremist supporters stem from. May did the best she could with the red lines that had to be adhered to from the ERG.

I just lump them in all together on this. That May couldn’t keep her party in line regarding the stability of the fucking nation, is entirely her failing, she gets no sympathy from me. She should never have been PM and she’s basically the living personification of ineptitude. How she survived a no confidence vote I will never know 

Edited July 2, 2019 by Dr. Gonzo

[Rucksackfranzose]

9 hours ago, Fairy In Boots said:

My preference for a No deal stems from the principle that the negotiations have been awful from day 1, no deal damages the EU also and they’re far more likely to offer a better deal rather than their hardball stance when it’s hitting them in the pocket. It’s essentially a political game of chicken now they don’t want to flinch and we surrendered the impetus from day one, I suspect both parties will compromise when it’s having a negative impact on them. I could be wrong but logically you would think this to be the case. 

@SirBalon

I don’t read them mate maybe the first sentence but then I zone out, save yourself the trouble, there’s another hour long rant up there probably took you well past midnight. There’s more to life

You forget something, the EU didn't want brexit, and they don't want other nations to follow their example. The positives of showing other nations they won't get a favourable deal if they decide to leave the EU outweigh the negatives of a hit pocket by the UK leaving with no deal by far. It's not like the entire world or the EU revolved around the British.

Edited July 2, 2019 by Rucksackfranzose

[SirBalon]

1 hour ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I just lump them in all together on this. That May couldn’t keep her party in line regarding the stability of the fucking nation, is entirely her failing, she gets no sympathy from me. She should never have been PM and she’s basically the living personification of ineptitude. How she survived a no confidence vote I will never know 

Far be it from me to want to defend anything about Theresa May because she is a bigot and isn’t a fan of foreigners at all. But playing Devil’s Advocate and being fair which is something that is required in these times so as to maintain credibility through honesty, then the truth has to reign.

She was handed a poisoned chalice that nobody wanted. Nobody would’ve done a better job in delivering Brexit with a deal because the red lines were a must considering a decent majority of Brexit voters (not all though) wanted certain things to be delivered with one of them being the abolishment of FOM. Freedom of Movement is one of the four pillars of what the EU stands for and after understanding it fully and backed by the laws that offer governments freedom of management, I now see that freedom as one of the most amazing things that could ever have been brought about based on learning from the errors of two World Wars.

She had no escape and even though she did commit errors like listening to and letting herself be advised by those scoundrels at the ERG, then this was the only outcome for her eventually as the only success was to accept her deal, THE ONLY DEAL available.

The ERG are too powerful and anyone coming in as leader needs their blessing, even a remainer like Jeremy Hunt who is now singing to the same hymn sheet. Boris is one of them, but only because it benefits what he’s wanted all along, the top job. He doesn’t believe in anything other than himself which includes Brexit. Brexit is just a tool to get what he wants.

1 hour ago, Rucksackfranzose said:

You forget something, the EU didn't want brexit, and they don't want other nations to follow their example. The positives of showing other nations they won't get a favourable deal if they decide to leave the EU outweigh the negatives of a hit pocket by the UK leaving with no deal by far. It's not like the entire world or the EU revolved around the British.

Brexit is a British creation and with this it’s the sword it will be punished with. Membership of the EU has written rules which are there for everyone to abide by, including on the kamikaze attempt of wanting to leave. The rules and terms one must abide by when requesting to leave were actually written up by a British lawyer.

Funnily enough there have been some very important positives to come out of this UK Brexit experience. It has taught us all, especially all the other remaining EU States of how important the European Union actually is and what it actually provides. This experience has shown everyone that all those lies, fallacies about the EU weren’t true, weren’t factual. The EU isn’t perfect and the last thing Brexit has provided is that the EU wants to reform itself to become even more transparent and fair. Something that if the UK exits, it won’t participate in and will merely be subject to everything that’s occurring around it. 

This sense of imperialist superiority England suffers from will make history on its downfall. Whereas other empires fell in battle, the UK will have voted to be harmed.

[Fairy In Boots]

3 hours ago, Rucksackfranzose said:

You forget something, the EU didn't want brexit, and they don't want other nations to follow their example. The positives of showing other nations they won't get a favourable deal if they decide to leave the EU outweigh the negatives of a hit pocket by the UK leaving with no deal by far. It's not like the entire world or the EU revolved around the British.

Lol you lose your second biggest player and the billions wiped off trade will pail in insignificance to the message it sends to the likes of Slovakia about trying it. 

[God is Haaland]

3 hours ago, Fairy In Boots said:

Lol you lose your second biggest player and the billions wiped off trade will pail in insignificance to the message it sends to the likes of Slovakia about trying it. 

*3rd

[Dr. Gonzo]

Another thing about the idea that negotiating out of a No Deal scenario seems to not account for is that we're not accounting for being in a weaker position at the negotiation table. Take for instance this: https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexspence/canada-is-refusing-to-roll-over-its-eu-trade-agreement-for - British outrage that Canada won't roll over it's EU trade deal with the UK if we have a No Deal scenario on our hands.

But that position is mental because it's not taking into account what Canada will be seeing if they're to negotiate with Britain outside of the EU. They're in a position to get a better deal out of the UK than they would get from the EU, Canadian governments are going to represent Canadian interests, not British interests. Why on earth would the UK's negotiators expect Canada to roll the EU trade deal over to the UK if the UK is no longer in the EU?

It's like the notion that the EU wouldn't be negotiating with the UK on Brexit with the distinct upperhand. It only makes sense if you only consider the UK's perspective and ignore the fact they're going to be negotiating with people that have different interests. And I'm not sure how on earth we're supposed to be okay with negotiators that don't seem to understand this basic concept of negotiating and being realistic about the prospects of what other countries' positions might be.

[SirBalon]

 

[RandoEFC+]

 

Not quite Kim Jong Un levels of propaganda from the Brexit party, let's say.

[God is Haaland]

31 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

 

Not quite Kim Jong Un levels of propaganda from the Brexit party, let's say.

...and then Darren Grimes completed 18 holes with just 34 strikes.

[SirBalon]

44 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

 

Not quite Kim Jong Un levels of propaganda from the Brexit party, let's say.

The kid looks upto a criminal?

Sounds about right in many cases. Him and his maaaam.

[Harry]

On 02/07/2019 at 23:30, SirBalon said:

With a deal the EU’s hit is negligible (I read a detailed report from a US economist some months back) but with No Deal the hit would be considerably higher but our hit in the UK pays no resemblance to this as we WILL SUFFER massively. Plus the EU are totally prepared for No Deal which has reduced many problems they’ll suffer financially with a No Deal.

There'd also be a danger to the EU if they caves to a deal that was sweeter to the UK... Although it will hurt the EU to lose the UK they will also consolidate their remaining nations of things go very badly for the UK in leaving.

[SirBalon]

8 hours ago, Harry said:

There'd also be a danger to the EU if they caves to a deal that was sweeter to the UK... Although it will hurt the EU to lose the UK they will also consolidate their remaining nations of things go very badly for the UK in leaving.

There's nothing to speculate with "ifs and buts" mate. There are only facts and on the other side there are beliefs.

Even the leave pushers in politics no longer say what they did at the time of campaigning with all the "sunny uplands" or it'll be the "deal of the century" etc... They even say we're going to suffer big time these days because the grooming is done and yes, trust me, there are people prepared to be poorer, abolish freedoms for their children for a "belief" something that isn't tangible or that exists... It's all about senitment now.

It hurts the EU, but the amount it hurts them isn't in the same stratosphere on the amount it's going to hurt us.

[SirBalon]

BIG NEWS if true!

The Labour Party are rumoured to be about to officially back remaining in the EU and also officially backing a 2nd Referendum.

This is massive if true and we could now say that Brexit is on its last legs. The great majority of those people that continue to believe in Brexit have moved to the Brexit Party already with very few tribalists sticking with them according to polls a couple of months back. What this will do in effect is take back Remain voters that have moved either to the Liberal Democrats, Green Party and other independent groups.

Let’s see if this is true or not because it seems Corbyn has finally got the message as his status as an MP was on the line let alone leader of the party and possible future Prime Minister.

[RandoEFC+]

5 hours ago, SirBalon said:

BIG NEWS if true!

The Labour Party are rumoured to be about to officially back remaining in the EU and also officially backing a 2nd Referendum.

This is massive if true and we could now say that Brexit is on its last legs. The great majority of those people that continue to believe in Brexit have moved to the Brexit Party already with very few tribalists sticking with them according to polls a couple of months back. What this will do in effect is take back Remain voters that have moved either to the Liberal Democrats, Green Party and other independent groups.

Let’s see if this is true or not because it seems Corbyn has finally got the message as his status as an MP was on the line let alone leader of the party and possible future Prime Minister.

Fingers crossed. Politics and the electorate have been too unpredictable in the last few years to leap straight from this situation to the end of Brexit though.

[SirBalon]

18 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

Fingers crossed. Politics and the electorate have been too unpredictable in the last few years to leap straight from this situation to the end of Brexit though.

To be honest, due to the times we’re living in recent times I will refrain from trusting Corbyn right now. The manifesto when issued has to be scrutinised.

[SirBalon]

I don’t agree with everything he’s said here because the fact is that no form of Brexit is beneficial for the UK in any shape or form. What’s true is that there are less harmful versions of Brexit all the way to No Deal Brexit which is as he says, a total catastrophe of negative epic consequences.

If we were ever to rejoin we would have to adhere to and accept policies we do not subscribe to under our current terms as an EU member like for example the Euro as a UK currency. We would have nothing to offer to convince them that we should once again be exempt. This and dozens of other “benefits” we currently “enjoy”.

All the same... Here you have a character that has been one of the biggest standards for Brexit for over 20 years. The thread he has written although myself not in total agreement with certain aspects as I have just written. It does offer those that continue to be blinded by liars and charlatans a road to atonement and defeating worthless pride. 

Click on the Tweet so as to be able to unroll the thread.

 

[SirBalon]