UK Politics & Brexit Discussion

[Dr. Gonzo]

So from Macron on Brexit: "Britain must understand that our interest in the medium to long term is to have clear rules. So if Britain wants to trade with Europe it has to choose a model, such as the Swiss, Norwegian or Canadian [I'm assuming grammar wasn't translated]. We have to accept that there are losses. But it's the British who will lose the most. You cannot enjoy the rights in Europe if you are not a member - otherwise it will fall apart. Europe is what has enabled us since 1945, in an unprecedented way, to preserve peace, security, freedom and prosperity in our continent. The British are making a serious mistake over the long term. Boris Johnson enjoys giving flamboyant speeches but has no strategic vision; the turmoil he created the day after Brexit proves it. Nigel Farage and Mr. Johnson are responsible for this crime: they sailed the ship into battle and jumped overboard at the moment of crisis. Theresa May has handled it but what has been happening since then? On the geopolitical level as well as on the financial, realignment and submission to the US. What is going to happen is not "taking back control": it's servitude."

So aside from his pretty scathing comments on Farage and Johnson (all accurate btw) - he's also mentioned 3 models where British trade with the EU may fit in in the future. Which of the 3 models do you lot prefer?

Norway's model (EEA): fairly free access to single market for businesses, but exceptions for farming, fishing (separate zones) and food imports (lets say, allowing import duties on French cheese to favour Norway's farmers). Free movement of people (unlike the UK, Norway is in the Schengen border area), EU citizens have the same access to health care as locals, etc. No requirements to join the Euro. New EU regulations are added to Norweigian law pretty much automatically - and unlike EU members there is no way to influence the regulation for Norway (as Norwy has no EU representation). There is flexibility in Norway's parliament can at any point not to accept a regulation... but they must then leave the EEA.

Switzerland's Model: Similar to Norway's, but each area negotiated individually. Freedom of movement has tended to be as if the Swiss were an EEA country. In some areas is closer integration than Norway (food imports) and others less. New EU regulations have to be negotiated again. This has led to the Swiss having lots of referendums, which may require that earlier deals are broken and may need to be renegotiated.

Canada model: This is completely different to the other two. It's a very comprehensive trade deal where we remove tariffs (mostly), agree on some mutual standards and a mutual recognition on the certification of standards (if you can sell paint in the EU because it doesn't have lead in the paint, you can sell it in Canada without having to get the equivalent certification to the EU certification). But this does not do anything for our services sector which relies on the freedom of movement or our financial services sector which relies on "passporting" (agreeing to recognise mutual standards in financial services and each nation's regulators).

The EEA model is a way for us to exit with minimal economic impact whatsoever - but in all honesty, it will leave both those who were for leave and remain both unhappy. Remainers will be happy that we can avoid weakening our standing economically in the aftermath of Brexit... but the EEA will also leave us beholden to EU regulations without any representation or means to have a say in what those representations for me. As someone who had to endure calls of how Brexit would give us national sovereignty and reaffirm principles of democracy - this solution seems totally lacking in giving any of that. If anything, it subverts our national sovereignty more than remaining in the EU does. And from my perspective, the biggest issue for leavers was immigration. This does not solve that. This also does not fly with the leave rhetoric of "muh national sovereignty! I suppose there is the emergency brake release from the EEA... but then we're back where we are now and left to negotiate where we stand on the continent AGAIN.

Switzerland's model is a bit intriguing. Can we count on the British public to have the stomach for regular referendums though? It would take a long time for us to have the full deal negotiated, it took a very long time for Switzerland's deal to be negotiated. Canada's model, by excluding the service industry, does not solve the issues of Britain's biggest contributors to the GDP in the face of Brexit. Ultimately, what's best for our economy is the EEA - but it does not fly in the face of the political arguments made... and is no better option than remaining in the EU (which is as unrealistic a proposition as the belief that the EU will let us wipe the floor with them in negotiations, despite having less leverage).

[RandoEFC+]

Couldn't see a topic on this so thought I'd start one now that the negotiations are underway.

Theresa May has today announced that EU nationals that have lived in the UK for five years will be granted a 'settled' status and effectively act as UK citizens. Nothing has been said about those that have lived here less than five years though. (Edit: On second reading, I'm not sure I've actually interpreted that correctly, it's been a long day - link below for the full story).

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-citizens-uk-theresa-may-settlement-europe-talks-latest-a7803736.html

I still think Europe has all the leverage in these negotiations, especially after the snap election.

Edited June 22, 2017 by RandoEFC

[RandoEFC+]

4 minutes ago, Cannabis said:

I hope she fucks off before the negotiations are concluded, I don't trust or have any faith in her to get the best deal for England and the rest of the UK.

 

I don't like her at all but our position becomes an even bigger joke if we decide halfway through that actually we want to send someone else to the table, especially when the alternatives include Boris Johnson.

[Dr. Gonzo]

20 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

I don't like her at all but our position becomes an even bigger joke if we decide halfway through that actually we want to send someone else to the table, especially when the alternatives include Boris Johnson.

If it didn't concern the future of the UK's status in the world... it would be SO FUCKING HILARIOUS to watch Boris Johnson sat at the negotiation table with the EU. The guy is out of his depth in anything other than being a massive twat.

[SirBalon]

Boris Johnson?

If there were a General Election tomorrow and Boris Johnson represented the Tories as leader, I'd be very very tempted to vote for him.  The comedy factor I'd get seeing him lead the nation far outlays pretending I've voted for something that really will change things for the better.

[God is Haaland]

Send Lord Buckethead to the negotiation table. The weight of his helmet makes up for the lack of leverage.

[Fairy In Boots]

already have a thread

[RandoEFC+]

1 hour ago, SirBalon said:

Boris Johnson?

If there were a General Election tomorrow and Boris Johnson represented the Tories as leader, I'd be very very tempted to vote for him.  The comedy factor I'd get seeing him lead the nation far outlays pretending I've voted for something that really will change things for the better.

I know you're joking but the sad truth is that many people genuinely don't care and would want to see Boris as prime minister just for a laugh. 

[SirBalon]

1 hour ago, RandoEFC said:

I know you're joking but the sad truth is that many people genuinely don't care and would want to see Boris as prime minister just for a laugh. 

I swear to you that I would LOVE to see the comedy value of Boris as Primer Minister.  I'm not joking!

Because at the end of the day it doesn't matter which government gets into power or who leads it.  It's always the same!  I know I am being cynical, but that's the way it is.

[Happy Blue]

Trump for President    ...or Nigel Farage

[LFCMike]

3 hours ago, SirBalon said:

I swear to you that I would LOVE to see the comedy value of Boris as Primer Minister.  I'm not joking!

Because at the end of the day it doesn't matter which government gets into power or who leads it.  It's always the same!  I know I am being cynical, but that's the way it is.

It's scary how many people will think like this

[SirBalon]

6 minutes ago, LFCMike said:

It's scary how many people will think like this

The thought isn't scary mate. The reality is. 

[LFCMike]

1 hour ago, SirBalon said:

The thought isn't scary mate. The reality is. 

He's a dangerous cunt, Johnson. I can't get my head around the mindset of people wanting to see him as PM 'for a laugh'.

[SirBalon]

Just now, LFCMike said:

He's a dangerous cunt, Johnson. I can't get my head around the mindset of people wanting to see him as PM 'for a laugh'.

There's absolutely no such thing as a dangerous political leader in an advanced western country.  Even Trump is all blah blah blah with a self obsessed rhetoric and no foundation to anything...  The guy's a comedy show in itself and has worked wonders for politics and highlighting it.

How is Boris a danger to anything?  How's he a more of a danger than anyone else!

People don't rule...  Those with the quorn rule!  Don't make any mistake about it.  Everyone else thinking they have some sort of understanding on what's better in the spectrum we're offered today is just a fool and ignore them.

There's nothing better in this world than being entertained because if you think for a single second there's something out there in politics that will really change your life unless they're forced to do so due to unforeseen occurrences, then you're more the fool mate!

[Fairy In Boots]

15 hours ago, LFCMike said:

He's a dangerous cunt, Johnson. I can't get my head around the mindset of people wanting to see him as PM 'for a laugh'.

Yet you championed a Marxist & his gang of hard left loons just a few weeks back 😂

15 hours ago, SirBalon said:

There's absolutely no such thing as a dangerous political leader in an advanced western country.  Even Trump is all blah blah blah with a self obsessed rhetoric and no foundation to anything...  The guy's a comedy show in itself and has worked wonders for politics and highlighting it.

How is Boris a danger to anything?  How's he a more of a danger than anyone else!

People don't rule...  Those with the quorn rule!  Don't make any mistake about it.  Everyone else thinking they have some sort of understanding on what's better in the spectrum we're offered today is just a fool and ignore them.

There's nothing better in this world than being entertained because if you think for a single second there's something out there in politics that will really change your life unless they're forced to do so due to unforeseen occurrences, then you're more the fool mate!

The first sentence is silly, I know you go on to explain it but power is still capable of dangerous results no matter how a system is constructed to guard against it. 

[RandoEFC+]

All it takes is Trump to press the big red button, probably out of desperation when his position becomes almost untenable, and the world becomes a very different place where nobody is safe.

[SirBalon]

5 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

All it takes is Trump to press the big red button, probably out of desperation when his position becomes almost untenable, and the world becomes a very different place where nobody is safe.

What RED BUTTON mate?

That's a very 80s cliché!!!

That doesn't exist and the President of the United States of America doesn't have the power to press any red button because of a whim and neither does he have a red button in the Oval Office.

[RandoEFC+]

Just now, SirBalon said:

What RED BUTTON mate?

That's a very 80s cliché!!!

That doesn't exist and the President of the United States of America doesn't have the power to press any red button because of a whim and neither does he have a red button in the Oval Office.

You know what I meant and as the commander in chief he does have that power if the situation arises. 

[SirBalon]

Just now, RandoEFC said:

You know what I meant and as the commander in chief he does have that power if the situation arises. 

I do know what you mean mate but that's not real.  He is the commander and chief by name but he has a whole setup behind him where consensus must be met for any decision and more so on something as drastic and devastating as that.  Nobody's about to let a business man decide the fate of millions with the repercussions that it would entail.

[God is Haaland]

On 29.4.2017 at 2:05 PM, Salford Kel said:

The 27 Rothschild frontpeople in charge of the totalitarian EU dictatorship

>posted from my monarchy 

Edited June 25, 2017 by True Bender

[RandoEFC+]

3 minutes ago, SirBalon said:

I do know what you mean mate but that's not real.  He is the commander and chief by name but he has a whole setup behind him where consensus must be met for any decision and more so on something as drastic and devastating as that.  Nobody's about to let a business man decide the fate of millions with the repercussions that it would entail.

Of course he can't just wake up tomorrow morning and nuke North Korea out of the blue but if the situation arises, and sadly the way the world is now that looks likely to happen during his term, it's ultimately his call. 

[SirBalon]

22 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

it's ultimately his call. 

I get what you're saying mate, but something tells me that Mr Donald Trump (him most of all) would never be given the power to make a decision such as that one.  Even if he is the president of the US.

[Dr. Gonzo]

3 hours ago, SirBalon said:

I do know what you mean mate but that's not real.  He is the commander and chief by name but he has a whole setup behind him where consensus must be met for any decision and more so on something as drastic and devastating as that.  Nobody's about to let a business man decide the fate of millions with the repercussions that it would entail.

You say nobody is going to let him... and that's what people said about him being president. He's also got conflicts with the Constitution oath he took, but nobody is doing anything to stop him.

Saying world leaders don't have the power to exercise the power granted to them is just inaccurate. Look at Trump and the Paris Climate Agreement. That's the entire world impacted by his decision because 1.) He could make that decision; 2.) America is the biggest polluting nation.

Having Boris Johnson as PM would be a disaster for this country. Especially if he was in any way involved with the Brexit negotiations. We're going into negotiation with no leverage, we don't need a moron the EU hates for lying to get people to vote for something they didn't understand.

I don't have any faith in Maybot. Yet that's more faith I'd have in Boris the clown. I hope the Conservative and Union Negotiating Team (anyone got a good acronym??????) can prove to not be a fucking disaster for Britain.

Tell you what though, I'm not hopeful about that at all.

[SirBalon]

19 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

You say nobody is going to let him... and that's what people said about him being president. He's also got conflicts with the Constitution oath he took, but nobody is doing anything to stop him.

Saying world leaders don't have the power to exercise the power granted to them is just inaccurate. Look at Trump and the Paris Climate Agreement. That's the entire world impacted by his decision because 1.) He could make that decision; 2.) America is the biggest polluting nation.

Having Boris Johnson as PM would be a disaster for this country. Especially if he was in any way involved with the Brexit negotiations. We're going into negotiation with no leverage, we don't need a moron the EU hates for lying to get people to vote for something they didn't understand.

I don't have any faith in Maybot. Yet that's more faith I'd have in Boris the clown. I hope the Conservative and Union Negotiating Team (anyone got a good acronym??????) can prove to not be a fucking disaster for Britain.

Tell you what though, I'm not hopeful about that at all.

There's no way in hell anyone is going to convince me that one man can "push" that button we're on about just on a whim.  One thing is negating on an agreement or making speeches that on the whole are ridiculous verging on the hilarious.  But he has most of his own people against him (aside from animals... Sorry for including animals in that).

On the Brexit negotiations...  Are you really trying to tell me we have a single politician worthy of negotiating a good deal with the EU?  Come on mate!  Don't give me that!!!

The very first day of negotiations was a farce and we were made to look like idiots.  Even Theresa May's EU citizens in the UK permanence has been laughed at and told that it's not even close to satisfying.  We have no way out if we want something from the EU!  We have absolutely nothing to offer as leverage on our possible demands so as to access the free market.  It's as simple as any concessions from a country that has bunked off the EU would be seen as a precedent for future moments of dissent from other members...  We're not going to be offered anything whatsoever and anything we are offered will be made to look like a victory while in the EU they'll be laughing at us because they'll know they've got the better end of the whole deal.

We over estimate our worth!  Yeah we're powerful, but we're nowhere near as powerful as we think we are and "that lot" together make us look like shrimp in a sea of lobsters.  We taste good, but we're just a starter plate in the grand scheme of things.

Boris Johnson as much as anything else we have to offer on the political scale is worthless.  So why not have a laugh seeing a bumbling flat footed idiot lead the country.

Edited June 25, 2017 by SirBalon

[RandoEFC+]

@SirBalon nobody is arguing that Trump can just get bored one evening and decide to nuke Russia or something, this isn't a dictatorship. However, if a situation arises where North Korea prod the USA just a bit too hard or once too many, he is capable of making a call like that in a marginal situation.