The Relegation Battle 2023

[Honey Honey]

There are many more twists and turns to come. I don't think you can call it to be honest. 

[OrangeKhrush]

16 minutes ago, Honey Honey said:

There are many more twists and turns to come. I don't think you can call it to be honest. 

this is an incredible season top and bottom

[Michael]

39 minutes ago, OrangeKhrush said:

this is an incredible season top and bottom

It certainly is, it's one of the most exciting seasons that we have had in a while.

[Dr. Gonzo]

Last year I did not want Everton to get relegated because I thought it would be sad for some of my friends and family, and be bad for Liverpool as a city and be bad for Merseyside generally.

This year I want Everton to go get relegated because I think it would be very funny.

[Dan+]

I actually think Forest have a decent chance of getting out of this. They're 17th for starters but their run in at one point looked cruel - they're facing a load of teams with nothing to play for and Southampton.

As for Leicester - put it this way if our last three games had all happened in January / February sort of time I'd have no concerns at all, we've looked probably about par for the league, nothing special, but not bad either. Certainly not one of the three worst teams. But the margin for error is tiny and that's the scary thing. There are only five games left. If we blow it on Monday I think all belief will vanish again.

We're going to need some points off Fulham / Liverpool.

[RandoEFC+]

On 23/04/2023 at 12:15, RandoEFC said:

Southampton 88.9% (-2.9%)

Nottm Forest 81.8% (+5.0%)

Everton 52.4% (+4.8%)

Leicester 30.8% (-21.6%)

Leeds 30.8% (+2.2%)

Bournemouth 5.9% (n/c)

West Ham 3.8% (-1.0%)

Wolves 2.9% (+0.9%)

New perceived chances:

Southampton 95.2% (+6.3%)

Everton 66.7% (+14.3%)

Nottm Forest 57.1% (-24.7%)

Leeds 47.6% (+16.8%)

Leicester 38.1% (+7.3%)

West Ham 2.4% (-1.4%)

Bournemouth 1.5% (-4.4%)

 

Midweek wins for Forest and Bournemouth see the probabilities shift away from them and toward Everton, Leeds and Leicester. It's all over for Southampton and Wolves have reached the <1% threshold and been removed from the list.

[Dan+]

There are so many angles to look at this but I think West Ham's role in this could be quite interesting. They're not mathematically out of this and their next three games are Manchester City away, Manchester United home and Brentford away.

Then they play Leeds and Leicester. I think it's quite plausible that they could need to beat Leeds to confirm survival. That would be the perfect scenario for us - have them saved by beating Leeds and being on the beach by the time they play us, with the quite likely possibility that they have an eye on the Conference League as well.

[Lucas]

9 minutes ago, Dan said:

There are so many angles to look at this but I think West Ham's role in this could be quite interesting. They're not mathematically out of this and their next three games are Manchester City away, Manchester United home and Brentford away.

Then they play Leeds and Leicester. I think it's quite plausible that they could need to beat Leeds to confirm survival. That would be the perfect scenario for us - have them saved by beating Leeds and being on the beach by the time they play us, with the quite likely possibility that they have an eye on the Conference League as well.

Well, let's hope they beat Man Utd at home next week and shoot that idea to shreads.

[Dan+]

56 minutes ago, Lucas said:

Well, let's hope they beat Man Utd at home next week and shoot that idea to shreads.

What result do you want from Leicester v Everton?

[Michael]

Well Brentford did the teams down at the bottom of the table a huge favour by beating Forest today. The Leicester City v Everton and the Bournemouth v Leeds matches over the next couple of days could go a long way in deciding who is likely going to get relegated this season. I fully expect Newcastle to beat Southampton tomorrow, but Southampton's next fixture against Notts Forest should be very intriguing indeed.

[Dan+]

Southampton probably need to win at Newcastle and I just can't see it. But then they really made Arsenal sweat.

I think the week of the Southampton fan from 85 minutes at the Emirates onwards must be amongst the most crushing ever. They probably thought they could do it at that point. Absolutely no hope now.

[Lucas]

13 hours ago, Dan said:

What result do you want from Leicester v Everton?

I have no idea whats best. It's a weird one.

One side I feel like a draw to keep you both with us, but then I firmly believe you get out of it anyway. I think you can beat Fulham and West Ham no worries.

So partly feel Everton losing will benefit us, and hope it's them and Forest that sink with Saints.

I think @RandoEFC probably thinks the same too, it'll boil down to us, them and Forest, two drop, one survives.

If Everton win we are done for.

[RandoEFC+]

I'm so knackered by last year's and this year's relegation battle than I'm doing my best to retire from the second guessing and obsessing over other results. It's not good for your health. Everton deserve to get relegated if we're honest and even if we stay up one more time we're only headed in one direction with this ownership, eventual relegation and the very real prospect of financial oblivion. The only advantage of it not being this season is it gives us one more year to hope someone competent bizarrely decides to buy the club off Moshiri and sort things out. 

I've come to terms with what the club has become over the past week or so. Whatever happens now, happens. I'm expecting nothing from the Leicester game or the rest of the season.

[Stan]

36 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

I'm so knackered by last year's and this year's relegation battle than I'm doing my best to retire from the second guessing and obsessing over other results. It's not good for your health

I do this at the start of the week, but by the time the next round of fixtures comes about, I'm always super-invested and obsessed into it. I hate it with a passion!

[RandoEFC+]

10 minutes ago, Stan said:

I do this at the start of the week, but by the time the next round of fixtures comes about, I'm always super-invested and obsessed into it. I hate it with a passion!

Nah, I know what you mean but it really feels different to me this time. Don't get me wrong, I was still happy to hear that Forest had lost yesterday, but there's something at stake for Leicester, you could stay up and push for top half again next season. Everton have been in terminal decline for anything between 5 and 40 years depending on which generation of fan you ask. Avoiding relegation this season actually means relatively little in the grand scheme of things when the club is run the way it is. I would take the guarantee of a new owner and board from this summer if the price was relegation this season without even thinking twice.

[Stan]

54 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

Nah, I know what you mean but it really feels different to me this time. Don't get me wrong, I was still happy to hear that Forest had lost yesterday, but there's something at stake for Leicester, you could stay up and push for top half again next season. Everton have been in terminal decline for anything between 5 and 40 years depending on which generation of fan you ask. Avoiding relegation this season actually means relatively little in the grand scheme of things when the club is run the way it is. I would take the guarantee of a new owner and board from this summer if the price was relegation this season without even thinking twice.

Sounds like other clubs.

Like those that have hovered above the relegation zone and just about survived, only to drop eventually.

Villa the prime example about 10 years ago. If I remember correctly, they survived in 15-17th a couple of seasons, then eventually went.

Newcastle as well shortly before that, but their ownership is obviously well documented.

You definitely need new owners - that statement I read during the week that Kenwright wrote was downright embarrassing. A vanity statement, if anything, as opposed to trying to give confidence to anyone associated with the club. He's becoming a cancer on the club like Ashley was for Newcastle.

[OrangeKhrush]

This season is one of the best in modern memory,  top and bottom has been fascinating.   It is not a good time to be playing teams at the bottom,  I would rather play teams on the beach at this stage of the season. 

[RandoEFC+]

42 minutes ago, Stan said:

Sounds like other clubs.

Like those that have hovered above the relegation zone and just about survived, only to drop eventually.

Villa the prime example about 10 years ago. If I remember correctly, they survived in 15-17th a couple of seasons, then eventually went.

Newcastle as well shortly before that, but their ownership is obviously well documented.

You definitely need new owners - that statement I read during the week that Kenwright wrote was downright embarrassing. A vanity statement, if anything, as opposed to trying to give confidence to anyone associated with the club. He's becoming a cancer on the club like Ashley was for Newcastle.

Yeah, it's optimistic to think we can do what Villa or Newcastle did though when the current clowns are running the show. More likely to become a Leeds or Sunderland.

There is nothing to be hopeful about at the moment.

[Dan+]

I can't help it with us, especially when the pricks have moved four games in a row to Monday so we're playing after everybody. Becomes impossible to ignore.

[Lucas]

Well that's that. Southampton, us and one other. What a parody this club is and a result that sums up our season perfectly. We've had enough chances to get out this mess and we refuse to take them. We don't deserve survival.

Enough's enough.

Gracia out. Victor Orta, out. Radrizzani out. 90% of the squad, out. 

The club's an absolute car crash and after everything Bielsa did in turning this circus back into a proper functioning model that imprinted itself not only on our fans, but others in the game, the board have shat all over it, sprinkled it in glitter and here's where we are.

I said we've been going down for a large part of this season, I could see it happening, but I must admit, after beating Forest and due to the poor performances of others, it's kept us alive and you begin to think maybe there are three worse sides.

But those Palace and Liverpool results has triggered a complete collapse of confidence that's destroyed our players and created a pressure they've never looked like conquering. Tyler Adams has been such a big miss but you can't pin it just on one player.

That's us done for sure now after today. There's no coming back from that one and you could see it in their faces at Full Time. They knew.

I don't really blame Gracia, even though he is pretty useless. He was the only one that answered the call after four or five other targets before him wouldn't take it. They pulled the trigger too late on Jesse Marsch because of a spunky win at Liverpool and in retrospect, you have to question if we have been better off for it. Probably not.

The imbeciles at the top, predominantly Victor Orta, have made terrible business decisions that have cost this club and Radrizzani has allowed it to happen. Why?  

They can all burn in my eyes. I'm disgusted, heartbroken and completely disengaged with the club that if we survive just to put up with that again, I don't want it. This osn't what following your club is supposed to feel like.

We're heading back into the Championship, and the only hope for the club is that the new owners come in, wipe the board clean, we get shot of most the shit we've collected and we build a core of a team again under a new manager that carries a spirit that resonates with us fans.

[Dan+]

I just cannot believe having read the likes of Lucas and Rando on here that we can seriously go from what we were to being relegated at the expense of either of these.

I said on here a couple of weeks ago I did think Leeds would drop. The bookies incredibly still think it's neck and neck between them and Forest. What's even more mad is I think we could lose tomorrow and not be one of the three favourites.

[Dave]

I think Leeds are in real trouble. To pick up one point against Palace, Fulham, Leicester and Bournemouth ahead of a run against Man City, Newcastle, West Ham and Spurs is a pretty dire position to put yourselves in. 

I'm not writing them completely off. They need two wins, I wasn't impressed by West Ham on Saturday and Spurs look all over the place, but to stay up by winning your last two games would be some escape.

Ahead of tonight's major match, I think a draw would hurt Everton more than Leicester just because this Leicester side look like they have more goals in them. Everton need a win and a little burst of momentum to get them over the line.

The worrying thing for these three sides is Forest's run of fixtures. A Southampton at home on life support, Todd Boehly's meme club, Arsenal who could have nothing to play for and then Palace on the last game of the season. They're all fixtures they could get something from.

[RandoEFC+]

Leeds arguably look even more terminal than us now. I can't see them winning another game which means if we can beat Bournemouth on the last day and scrape a couple of draws together from somewhere else, we should be able to finish above them. Forest would still be a concern. Even if they didn't win tonight, it would be a disgrace from Leicester to go down from their current position and remaining fixtures.

[OrangeKhrush]

I think this Leicester v Everton game is going to be a blood and thunder humdinger, it is going to be a gun watchalong

[RandoEFC+]

12 hours ago, Lucas said:

Well that's that. Southampton, us and one other. What a parody this club is and a result that sums up our season perfectly. We've had enough chances to get out this mess and we refuse to take them. We don't deserve survival.

Enough's enough.

Gracia out. Victor Orta, out. Radrizzani out. 90% of the squad, out. 

The club's an absolute car crash and after everything Bielsa did in turning this circus back into a proper functioning model that imprinted itself not only on our fans, but others in the game, the board have shat all over it, sprinkled it in glitter and here's where we are.

I said we've been going down for a large part of this season, I could see it happening, but I must admit, after beating Forest and due to the poor performances of others, it's kept us alive and you begin to think maybe there are three worse sides.

But those Palace and Liverpool results has triggered a complete collapse of confidence that's destroyed our players and created a pressure they've never looked like conquering. Tyler Adams has been such a big miss but you can't pin it just on one player.

That's us done for sure now after today. There's no coming back from that one and you could see it in their faces at Full Time. They knew.

I don't really blame Gracia, even though he is pretty useless. He was the only one that answered the call after four or five other targets before him wouldn't take it. They pulled the trigger too late on Jesse Marsch because of a spunky win at Liverpool and in retrospect, you have to question if we have been better off for it. Probably not.

The imbeciles at the top, predominantly Victor Orta, have made terrible business decisions that have cost this club and Radrizzani has allowed it to happen. Why?  

They can all burn in my eyes. I'm disgusted, heartbroken and completely disengaged with the club that if we survive just to put up with that again, I don't want it. This osn't what following your club is supposed to feel like.

We're heading back into the Championship, and the only hope for the club is that the new owners come in, wipe the board clean, we get shot of most the shit we've collected and we build a core of a team again under a new manager that carries a spirit that resonates with us fans.

It's shite being in an abusive relationship with your football club isn't it?

The last two years have really made me feel like it's not worth it from a personal perspective having such a heavy emotional investment and that I'd do myself a favour if I just saw Everton as more of a hobby to enjoy when good stuff happens and not let it bother me so much when it doesn't. Easier said than done of course.

It feels even worse when you can trace the club's failings directly back to foreign owners who have no knowledge of football or any appreciation of the actual club and the area that it represents. You could take it if your club were just bang up shite but nowadays, as a fanbase you just feel like total passengers while some random billionaire(s) buy your football club as a business venture at best, and their personal plaything at worst. There's just a sense of total emptiness when the actions and arrogance of one individual who has no business making footballing decisions ruins an entire football club to the point that you don't recognise it anymore.

It just makes you realise, even a well run club like Brighton or Brentford could get bought by a Farhad Moshiri and be turned into an absolute circus overnight, rendering years of good work by the staff, players and fans of such a club a complete waste of time because one rich lunatic decided that's what they wanted to do with their money. That's modern football.