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Dan's Tipping Game


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On 23/08/2023 at 00:16, Lucas said:

Gillingham to beat Colchester 5/6

Norwich to beat Huddersfield 5/4

£10 on @ 3.13-1 wins £41.25

(Skybet)

 

On 23/08/2023 at 15:18, Dan said:

Gillingham with 100% wins and Colchester with 100% defeats. I'm braced.

 

25 minutes ago, Lucas said:

First placed Gillingham, nil...

...Twenty fourth placed Colchester, three...

Remind me, why are we playing this game again?

@Dan saw it coming to be fair...

 

@Pyfish it's all on you mate for this week... 

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I've seen it far too many times in the EFL with games like that Gillingham one. Gillingham hadn't been all that convincing apparently - sounds obvious but they aren't scoring enough.

Another absolutely muck weekend in here. This is turning into a disaster!

Unsure what you're entering this week @CaaC (John) I had the two scores (Rangers & Spurs games) for you but were the horses just general bets?

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4 hours ago, Dan said:

 

Unsure what you're entering this week @CaaC (John) I had the two scores (Rangers & Spurs games) for you but were the horses just general bets?

Forget about that post, I think I should have put that in the betting thread, I will put my selection for this week in here later.

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On 21/08/2023 at 23:54, Dan said:

image.thumb.png.7359701c43d31e8729588f778623180e.png

I think nothing is quite as telling about the performance levels being demonstrated here as the fact the two risers of the week were the ones who either forgot to bet or wisely chose to not bother (@Storts @CaaC (John)) as once again we have 100% of predictions falling. Not quite as bad as last week, but ultimately it's damage limitation.

Starting from the top, and the only profitable member is no more as @Stan is inches away from a second victory that would've taken him around £40 up. Wrexham v Swindon was so chaotic that it's even forced the Wrexham goalkeeper into retirement, I think it's safe to say you won't get a price as big as that on the same market for a Wrexham game for a long time, as their four games have averaged an astonishing 6.5 goals each. Crewe produced their third comeback from 0-2 down in four matches to get a 2-2 draw, the corners sailing in but the cards unfortunately not. Very unlucky this week.

@...Dan has also come close. My old Football Manager icons FC Andorra produced a 3-2 win over Cartagena, but Antwerp blew it late at Leuven to deny him a steady £21.50 win. He wasn't the only one done by Antwerp as I had them to win with over 1.5 goals in the game. Leuven's equaliser of course sealing one leg of the bet and breaking the other. Harry Kane naturally scored just the one.

@RandoEFClanded one of his selections but was let down by Chelsea in the other. I had Chelsea myself on Sunday as I'd been quite encouraged by their opener, but they folded similarly to last season. @Lucasonce again manages to pick two favourites who both go on to lose their game, while @Pyfishalso fails to land either of his selections after Man City come up short in the super cup in normal time, while Salah naturally scores, but neither the first or last goal, such is the way of the tipping game.

Onto the next week. We've got to start landing something soon surely. The stats make for grim reading!

 

WEEK 3 STATS
Winning bets: 0/6 (0%)
Winning selections: 3/12 (25%)
Weekly forum position: -£60.00

OVERALL STATS
Winning bets: 1/21 (4.8%)
Winning selections: 9/41 (22%)
Total forum position: -£189.60

image.thumb.png.33aac15da7538bef698db7d187c65259.png

WEEK 4 - THE CASE FOR SINGLES

No this isn't Tinders latest advert, but a mere observation made that I'll post later on.

Quite comfortably the forum's collective best effort yet, although disappointingly we do still post a loss overall, however we've almost doubled our entirety of winning selections so far so we're definitely picking up a little bit.

@Storts lands the games biggest win yet with his double. Aston Villa paying out quite comfortably in their win at Burnley, although Man City made things a lot more tense than many expected with their 1-2 win at Bramall Lane. This game, and the late flurry of goals killed two birds with one stone as @Pyfish scraped his first victory of the season, taking him straight up to 2nd place from joint bottom. Chelsea's 3-0 win over Luton completed the double, for a nice win to get things going.

@Stan can once again be deemed very unlucky as the chaos at Wrexham was tempered somewhat, though the stats paint quite the onslaught and Wrexham once again conceded out of very little against them - winning the xG battle quite considerably. His other game at Gateshead sailed in with a 1-3 victory for Woking.

@CaaC (John)'s shot for the stars didn't really come close, and he was the only one of the eight to predict who didn't land a selection this week. This again is progress.

We move on to my picks. This double I think totally sums up my betting life - I have far more success on foreign football and leagues I never really watch than ones that I follow a bit closer. I had no idea at all how Botafogo were so short to win this game, it appears to me the bookies really don't rate them like they should do as they sailed to a 3-0 victory. Bolton however didn't bounce back and could only draw 1-1 at Burton, infuriatingly, as a Bolton winner would've left me top of the league.

@Lucas fell into what I deem the first huge trap of the season, totally understandably and with the form being shown I think it was a fairly generous price offered, but we have seen this sort of thing pan out in these ridiculous leagues way too many times now. It's a shame because his Norwich pick to win at Huddersfield absolutely rocketed in, in what was the best priced single to win this weekend. @RandoEFC again can be deemed unlucky, saved somewhat in unlikely circumstances in the Newcastle Liverpool game, but Arsenal had a rare off day at home to Fulham and both of their goals came in the second half.

It's a loss overall, but if you had backed singles on every selection, the forum would've done slightly better, albeit still not quite in profit either.

Plenty to play with this week coming up, which starts from now.

 

WEEK 4 STATS
Winning bets: 2/7 (28.5%)
Winning selections: 8/14 (57.14%)
Weekly forum position: -£23.01

OVERALL STATS
Winning bets: 3/28 (10.7%)
Winning selections: 17/55 (30.9%)
Total forum position: -£212.61

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This weekends choice, a slightly more ambitious...

Leicester v Hull - Leicester win and both teams to score @  2/1 (3.00): This is quite a generous price in my opinion for something that all the form tells you will happen. Leicester have won both of our home games 2-1 (in-fact if you include last season and away games, 4 of our last 5 league games have ended in 2-1 wins) whilst not keeping a clean sheet at home in 11 months. Hull let plenty in but are partial to pinching a goal themselves. I have done this on Bet365, so should Leicester go 2-0 up and then Hull get a goal, the bet wins even if Leicester don't go on to win the game.

Arsenal v Manchester United - Arsenal win and both teams to score @ 21/10 (3.10): This is a very similar rationale but Arsenal are good at home, score plenty but hardly ever seem to keep a clean sheet. The Emirates is very goal friendly and Arsenal with with BTTS paid out in 11 of their 19 home games last season, including a 3-2 win in this fixture. As per the Leicester game, as I've done it as a bet builder, an Arsenal 2 goal lead with any Manchester United goal means a bet win even if Arsenal go on to not win the game.

£10 returns £93.

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19 minutes ago, ...Dan said:

I'm not sure John knows you don't have to go for correct scores. Maybe he thinks this is the prediction league.

I dunno, if you've seen the rest of our picks you'd know. I'll leave with him to decide.

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