The Big Middle Eastern Thread

[OrangeKhrush]

3 hours ago, Beelzebub said:

Visuals of famine now coming out of Gaza.

It's now also time the term fundamentalist West or something like that is also used. The unsheltering US support for Israel and things like Iraq war before that are not just for strictly geopolitical reasons or for natural resources etc it goes beyond that. Western power circles are the same colonial fundamentalist that they were centuries ago. That EU guy even saying rest of the world is a jungle and Europe is a garden a while back speaks that they deep down still hold the ideas of racial superiority. 

Would Syria be one of the many examples of Islamic Universalism,  Bashar Al Assad has killed more Arabs than anyone at any point,  he is up their at Charles Taylor levels yet we don't get many protests about that.   There is a deep rooted obsession with Jews by people of the muslim world,  the existence of Jews strikes at the core.   

When 3000 people were killed on 9/11 America went and destroyed a lot and killed a lot and nobody said a thing,  it was called righteous and the west joined in,  it seems like Israel fighting a constant state of terror surrounded by Iranian Islamist militants who are hell bent on killing as many Israeli's and Palestinians as possible,  but the standard is not the same.  Hamas knew that it is not a war they can win on Military capability,  it is a war they need to win by fracturing the west and its failing alliances.   Western Universalism is a pipe dream,  the west is falling and the wolves are circling. 

 

 

[Rucksackfranzose]

48 minutes ago, OrangeKhrush said:

CNN: reporting that it is under review,  most of the deaths were caused by the trucks trying to get away,   there is no official confirmation on numbers resulting from gunfire and from stampeding.   

 

The deads from the trucks are IDF victims as well, since the stampeding wouldn't have happen without the gunfire. That's an analogy to the persons dying from typhus and other diseases in concentration camps rightfully also being counted as Nazi victims.

[Dr. Gonzo]

8 hours ago, OrangeKhrush said:

If I recall you are a Apostate atheist, if you went just about anywhere in the middle east or north Africa, you will be killed, the Qur'an demands it

I've been to the Middle East before 

[Tommy]

19 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I've been to the Middle East before 

Did you die?

[Dr. Gonzo]

46 minutes ago, OrangeKhrush said:

Hamas knew that it is not a war they can win on Military capability,  it is a war they need to win by fracturing the west and its failing alliances.   Western Universalism is a pipe dream,  the west is falling and the wolves are circling. 

Hamas absolutely knew what they were doing when they attacked on October 7th - they knew they were provoking Israel into a reaction that would be horrific for Palestine. And their masters in Tehran got a call from Moscow saying they had a plan to bolster their efforts in the war in Ukraine, and the IRI is going to jump as high as Putin tells them to when they're now so economically and militarily linked & the mullahs quite literally depend on Russian support.

They're just a pawn in trying to distract NATO from being able to fully support Ukraine, which has stopped Russia from its plan to have taken control over Ukraine in 3-5 days pretty successfully. It's only really working because half of US politicians are craven Trump & Putin bootlickers, who see Russia's shitty dictatorship as an ally in their culture war against "wokeness" - even though they can't define wokeness.

But ultimately they're just appeasing an expansionist dictator because apparently they don't teach modern history anymore.

[Dr. Gonzo]

Just now, Tommy said:

Did you die?

Yes but I came back 3 days later.

[MUFC]

18 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Yes but I came back 3 days later.

Prior to the 3 days, did Hamas get blamed for your death?

[OrangeKhrush]

2 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Hamas absolutely knew what they were doing when they attacked on October 7th - they knew they were provoking Israel into a reaction that would be horrific for Palestine. And their masters in Tehran got a call from Moscow saying they had a plan to bolster their efforts in the war in Ukraine, and the IRI is going to jump as high as Putin tells them to when they're now so economically and militarily linked & the mullahs quite literally depend on Russian support.

They're just a pawn in trying to distract NATO from being able to fully support Ukraine, which has stopped Russia from its plan to have taken control over Ukraine in 3-5 days pretty successfully. It's only really working because half of US politicians are craven Trump & Putin bootlickers, who see Russia's shitty dictatorship as an ally in their culture war against "wokeness" - even though they can't define wokeness.

But ultimately they're just appeasing an expansionist dictator because apparently they don't teach modern history anymore.

I would say their is a axis of power that levitates from China and Russia, Iran, Venezuela all in.   The Venezuela/Guyana dispute will blow up soon distracting America from a European war.  

The EU should be strong enough to Repel Russia, it is not a strong military.  The question is whether Europe has the stomach for a fight.

Putin wants Biden to win, he wants it because Biden is easy to toy along

Edited February 29 by OrangeKhrush

[OrangeKhrush]

The conflicts are in a stalemate, Russia has suffered 300000 war casualties 130 000 dead and 180 000 wounded, that's over a third of their capability.

4000 tanks and vehicles destroyed and over 1000 artillery pieces have cut them off.   The Donbas is Putins frontier, he has little to no expansion chances outside proxies like Moldova.

China may have a force to take Taiwan but Taiwan's value is staying intact. Taiwan is the semiconductor hotbed, memory PCBs are the gold nuggets, flattening Taiwan is a bad idea.

Iran have a crippling economy that is constantly well below month to month turnover needed to maintain a crippling deficit.   Afghanistan and Pakistan are their to take but Iran is politically unstable and broke.

[El Profesor]

The impression I have looking from afar is that after the events from October 7th, the israeli government settled on solving their "Gaza Strip problem" once and for all.

 In other words, ethnic cleansing Gaza.

Netanyahu and co. probably calculated that the Hamas terrorist attacks had generated a wave of sympathy towards Israel from the international community, and that they could push an extremely tough strategy without much public condemnation in the West. 

More, they probably counted that Europe, sooner or later, considering the humanitarian tragedy in Gaza, would end up accepting thousands of palestinian refugees, in a repeat of 2015. 

Obviously, all their forecast failed miserably and know they don´t really seem to really a plan. It seems that they´re killing innocent people due to a strange state of inertia.

As the Vietnam War shows, even if one of the combatants kills a large number of enemies, it´s impossible to win a war if one doesn´t have a clear objective.  

This is a terrible tragedy, and the worst part of it is that only an intervention from the americans can bring it to an end. Unfortunately, it seems that one of the few bipartisan consensus in Washington is supporting Israel no matter what.

 

 

 

 

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

1 hour ago, El Profesor said:

This is a terrible tragedy, and the worst part of it is that only an intervention from the americans can bring it to an end. Unfortunately, it seems that one of the few bipartisan consensus in Washington is supporting Israel no matter what.

I agree with everything you've said - except the bit about only intervention from the Americans can bring it to an end. Obviously America has to get involved, because it's the superpower and they're a big part of the reason Israel is the way it is. But I don't think any sort of peace process that's just involving Israel, the US, and Palestine is going to be seen as legitimate in the eyes of many Palestinians who view Israel as an imperialistic project by the US, UK, and Europe to have a foothold in the Middle East.

The Arab world needs to be involved as well. This is obviously made more complicated by the fact that the most influential Arab nation does not have diplomatic relations with Israel. But I can't see any sort of US-only intervention in the region being seen as anything more than furthering the notion that Israel is a western colony in the Middle East. Arab leadership needs to be involved in bringing about peace - especially when for decades the plight of the Palestinian people has been a rallying cry to unify "the Arab world." If not the Saudis, because of their lack of diplomatic relations, I think Egypt, Jordan and Oman all need to be involved.

And they need to be involved in something more than their recent ceasefire deal which just calls for an immediate ceasefire without meeting Israel's pretty reasonable requirement for the ceasefire: releasing the hostages. Of the remaining hostages, I really do wonder how many are still alive and being used as human shields to prevent Hamas leadership from being bombed.

But I think without Arab countries working to create some kind of solution, any intervention by the US won't be taken seriously by Palestinians (and Arabs generally) - I think it will just be seen as Israel and the US bullying an the already oppressed Palestinians.

[Dr. Gonzo]

2 hours ago, OrangeKhrush said:

Putin wants Biden to win, he wants it because Biden is easy to toy along

Yeah, I'm sure he loves Biden. Putin famously loves US presidents that have strong support for NATO, that are willing to support a nation Russia is invading and planned to take over in 3-5 days but simply can't due to that support, and would absolutely hate someone like Trump who seems to parrot much of what he says & is very anti-NATO generally.

That's probably why Putin recently did an interview with one of Biden's most fervent US supporters, Tucker Carlson, and spoke generally favourably about Biden's support for stopping Russian expansion.

2 hours ago, OrangeKhrush said:

Iran have a crippling economy that is constantly well below month to month turnover needed to maintain a crippling deficit.   Afghanistan and Pakistan are their to take but Iran is politically unstable and broke.

Iran's had a crippled economy for decades because they're prohibited from being normal participants in the global economy - ultimately the economic plight of your ordinary Iranian isn't something the leadership of the IRI give a single fuck about. The mullahs and the elite of Iran grew richer than ever despite the "maximum pressure" of unprecedented actions - the IRGC remains well funded and Iran's proxies remain armed to the teeth.

I'm not sure what your second point really is. If you're suggesting Iran should invade Afghanistan and/or Pakistan, I don't think there's a lot of appetite for that with Iran's population... nor within IRI leadership. The recent Iran-Pakistan exchanges of fire seem to mostly be targetting Kurdish militant groups that both governments hate. It looks as though both sides are doing each other a favour by taking out people they want to get rid of, but with the plausible deniability of the missile strikes coming from across a foreign border. And despite Afghanistan's Tajikis being ethnic brothers of Persians, I don't think there is any desire or appetite for any country in the world to go to war with Afghanistan. First off, Tajikis are a minority in Afghanistan. Secondly, Iran's got a refugee crisis due to the collapse of Afghanistan and the Taliban's return to power. Thirdly, war in Afghanistan ends poorly for all invaders.

If Iran was going to war with any neighbor, it would likely be Azerbaijan - who're allied with Israel, have made numerous claims to Iranian territory in propaganda speeches, and were more a part of Iran. And even in Iran's province of Azerbaijan, the majority Azeri population doesn't seem to want a thing to do with the nation the Republic of Azerbaijan. A lot of them don't even consider Azeris from the Republic of Azerbaijan Azeri, and instead refer to them as Azerbaijani. So while Aliyev, Baku's own Putin, seems to dream of Azeri reunification... I don't think there's a big desire for that within Iran. Fun fact: the former king of Iran was half-Azeri & Khamenei, the shitbag dictator in charge of Iran now, is also half-Azeri.

But ultimately mate, I think you've got to start being less confident in making statements if you're not even going to think about what you're typing up - let alone fact checking.

[El Profesor]

1 hour ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I agree with everything you've said - except the bit about only intervention from the Americans can bring it to an end. Obviously America has to get involved, because it's the superpower and they're a big part of the reason Israel is the way it is. But I don't think any sort of peace process that's just involving Israel, the US, and Palestine is going to be seen as legitimate in the eyes of many Palestinians who view Israel as an imperialistic project by the US, UK, and Europe to have a foothold in the Middle East.

The Arab world needs to be involved as well. This is obviously made more complicated by the fact that the most influential Arab nation does not have diplomatic relations with Israel. But I can't see any sort of US-only intervention in the region being seen as anything more than furthering the notion that Israel is a western colony in the Middle East. Arab leadership needs to be involved in bringing about peace - especially when for decades the plight of the Palestinian people has been a rallying cry to unify "the Arab world." If not the Saudis, because of their lack of diplomatic relations, I think Egypt, Jordan and Oman all need to be involved.

And they need to be involved in something more than their recent ceasefire deal which just calls for an immediate ceasefire without meeting Israel's pretty reasonable requirement for the ceasefire: releasing the hostages. Of the remaining hostages, I really do wonder how many are still alive and being used as human shields to prevent Hamas leadership from being bombed.

But I think without Arab countries working to create some kind of solution, any intervention by the US won't be taken seriously by Palestinians (and Arabs generally) - I think it will just be seen as Israel and the US bullying an the already oppressed Palestinians.

 

But can any arab government sit at the table with Israel at this point without losing its legitimacy before its own population?

In my opinion, restraining Israel is imperative for the americans in terms of damage control.

The notion that the Global South will unite over the palestinian cause is obviously pure fiction. But at the same time, the images coming from Gaza definitely hurt american image worldwide and, most especifically, the Biden administration. 

 

 

 

Edited March 1 by El Profesor

[Dr. Gonzo]

10 minutes ago, El Profesor said:

But can any arab government sit at the table with Israel at this point without losing its legitimacy before its own population?

I think at the end of the day, the populations of Arab countries need to come to terms with the fact that Israel isn't going anywhere - and at this point, nearly 80 years after the creation of Israel, they would be just as guilty as Israelis were of the Nakba if they were ever trying to get their goal. And that's Arab governments' jobs to get them on board with dropping the idea of Palestinians and Israelis fighting for eternity until one side is completely wiped out and getting used to the idea of having Israel as a neighbor.

But I agree with you that the US definitely needs to do more to restrain Israel. They should have been doing so for years. The practice of Israel announcing new illegal settlements every time a US president would land in Israel is something that America should have been pissed off about every time it happened - an ally doing something against international law that deliberately weakened US interests in the Middle East is something that I've always been surprised no American president has ever really cared about.

[Spike]

BREAKING NEWS Israel is entering a peace agreement with Palestine, they will pay reparations for every Palestinian harmed, killed, and displaced, but Hamas have to renounce Islam and pledge that they will be secular state with official state atheism, in agreement to this Palestine will be retuned the west bank and be given the full support of the NATO nations to  be a sovereign state in alliance with the Israeli state. 

[MUFC]

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/israeli-minister-calls-for-wiping-out-month-of-ramadan-/3152467#

[Azeem]

There is this image created of the 'West' that everything good about it material progress, law and order etc is due to some gigantic team effort where everyone from US to Australia works in shifts. 

But when it comes to bad things the blame is individualized as one off 'mistakes'. Hitler, Leopold in Belgium etc they did not come out of isolation. These are systematic things which are again being seen in Gaza. 

[Spike]

On 06/03/2024 at 00:52, Beelzebub said:

 

There is this image created of the 'West' that everything good about it material progress, law and order etc is due to some gigantic team effort where everyone from US to Australia works in shifts. 

But when it comes to bad things the blame is individualized as one of 'mistakes'. Hitler, Leopold in Belgium etc they did not come out of isolation. These are systematic things which are again being seen in Gaza. 

I partly disagree on the first point. The west is so obsessed with exceptional individualism, I don’t think anything is ever given credit due to team effort. Lincoln freed the slaves, Edison invented the lightbulb, Elon Musk invented Tesla, Jobs invented Mac, etc 

[MUFC]

Windows 98.

[Tommy]

[6666]

Israel decide to hit an aid centre. Scum of the earth.

[Dr. Gonzo]

Missed the part of the circle where they get Palestinians and Israelis to kill each other for some reason prior to cycling back to the beginning of the cycle, but fairly accurate.

[OrangeKhrush]

I have the distinct impression that nobody is really interested in stopping the war nor incentivized to do so.  The Alarming silence by the west other than moral grandstanding in an election year and the deafening silence of the middle east shows two sides of the aisle using people for gain.

The bottom line is that all three Iranian proxies need dismantling for regional stability.

[Dr. Gonzo]

4 hours ago, OrangeKhrush said:

I have the distinct impression that nobody is really interested in stopping the war nor incentivized to do so.

Most of the international community have been calling for a ceasefire - it's mostly been Israel and the US resistant to that. And even now the US is beginning to put pressure on Israel to stop fighting the war as though all Palestinians are enemy combatants.

The simple truth is that Netanyahu sees the war as his "stay out of jail" card - he's got no incentive to stop the war, he benefits from it going on longer. His coalition sees the war as an excuse to back the illegal settlements in the West Bank as well, so he sees supporting them as supporting his coalition and retaining his tenuous grip on the country.

It's only Palestinian leadership in Hamas and Israel that aren't interested in stopping the war at this point.

I also find it interesting, your fervent support for Russia and their foreign policy goals - yet your strong opposition to Iran's foreign policy goals. Iran and Russia at this point are allies out of necessity, being the two largest economies cut off from being normal participants in the global economy. And as a result, they see instability as the only way to even the playing field - they can't build themselves up like their allies have been able to, so their plan is to drag the whole world down with them. Meanwhile Russia's taken advantage of US politics having a 20 second attention span and used the Israel-Palestine conflict as a wedge issue to break up US support for Ukraine, and Putin's probably laughing his arse off at how easy it was to cause this wedge.

[OrangeKhrush]

3 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Most of the international community have been calling for a ceasefire - it's mostly been Israel and the US resistant to that. And even now the US is beginning to put pressure on Israel to stop fighting the war as though all Palestinians are enemy combatants.

The simple truth is that Netanyahu sees the war as his "stay out of jail" card - he's got no incentive to stop the war, he benefits from it going on longer. His coalition sees the war as an excuse to back the illegal settlements in the West Bank as well, so he sees supporting them as supporting his coalition and retaining his tenuous grip on the country.

It's only Palestinian leadership in Hamas and Israel that aren't interested in stopping the war at this point.

I also find it interesting, your fervent support for Russia and their foreign policy goals - yet your strong opposition to Iran's foreign policy goals. Iran and Russia at this point are allies out of necessity, being the two largest economies cut off from being normal participants in the global economy. And as a result, they see instability as the only way to even the playing field - they can't build themselves up like their allies have been able to, so their plan is to drag the whole world down with them. Meanwhile Russia's taken advantage of US politics having a 20 second attention span and used the Israel-Palestine conflict as a wedge issue to break up US support for Ukraine, and Putin's probably laughing his arse off at how easy it was to cause this wedge.

In Israel there is full support for total victory and growing support for a war with Hezbollah.   War has boosted Netenyahu's popularity Pre Simchat Torah.   

A ceasefire is a deliberate attempt to sabotage a war against extremism, it is a means to allow the cycle to repeat itself.   The only way a ceasefire will work is if Hamas leaves and that is not going to happen. As they have had 20 years to indoctrinate the populace, propaganda materials such as books that invoke anti semetism are found in homes and schools, it will take 20 years to reverse that level of melevolent hatred.

The west bank is an existential threat at the most petruded point it is 9 miles from Tel Aviv leaving no depth of defence.   The solution to the west bank for me is US control and military occupation, until a real palastinian government is formed.  Two state has been on the table for a century, and maybe people should start listening to what they have said all along, they don't want a two state, they want the destruction of our civilization and October 7 was only a mild showing of the utter malcontent they have for us.  How many times do we need to do the same song and dance before we realise that a new plan is needed. 

For me the only solution is a new mandate for a transitional government I would say the US and UN security council acting as overseer which if they did their job 15 years ago would have seen that Hamas were not meeting the grade, then again if the UN didn't allow membership to over 100 of its 170+ members that fail the requirements for human rights then maybe the UN wouldnt be as useless.

Will see how it plays out, Hamas should as far as possible be routed out and eliminated, I'm not sure if it can be completely flushed out but it can be weakened to the point the civilian population are no longer threatened by them.