Russia and Ukraine

[RandoEFC+]

Thought we're probably in 'dedicated thread' territory with recent events.

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

So what I don't understand is... hasn't Russia already invaded Ukraine?

Because Crimea is Ukraine's land - but Russia's annexed that. Why is that not considered an invasion? Purely because Russia sent in troops that aren't flying the Russian flag so they can be claimed as "mercenaries" and separatists?

Russia's been pretty belligerent the last 20 years imo. With Georgia, Syria, and Ukraine they've seemed to be pushing the international community to see what they're able to get away with. Having said that, Russia can certainly make the claim about certain western countries and they wouldn't really be wrong either.

I've seen a couple NYT articles that seem to be calling for open war between the US and Russia, but I hope war can be avoided and that the situation can be diffused with peace talks. Because I think the people hoping for war are really hoping for what would likely be the beginning of WW3. We should be seeking to avoid that kind of carnage.

[RandoEFC+]

I thought Crimea was still sort of disputed so there was an air of legitimacy to it, at least enough for the West to use that as an excuse to look the other way. I'm not sure about Georgia.

I'm not sure why this time, the West finds Russia's behaviour more unpalatable so I probably can't answer your overriding question but I suppose the line has to be drawn somewhere.

[Dr. Gonzo]

 

 

 

 

Sounds bad, if true

I

[Azeem]

Putin is a Soviet era romantic, he certainly has some ambitions to expand but I think US is giving him a reason to justify do whatever he is up to with Ukraine possibly joining NATO. The Canada analogy is alright, Ukraine has sentimental values for Russia other than geopolitical, with the overlapping history and culture. It joining their geopolitical rival would be like to US if Canada forms military alliance with China.

Highly skeptical of US intelligence after Afghan withdrawal so don't think any invasion would be in weeks like they're saying. 

P. S Thread title would be better like Ukraine crisis, West-Russia

[Waylander]

I think he is a front for a hidden group of Russian military figures who came together after Yeltsin as were getting concerned about Russia being taken over by foreign capital interests.

Just don't see how a middle ranked intelligence officer makes the rise to become leader of Russia, the worlds second super power.

If I am right he was chosen as someone most Russians would be able to relate to and then become attached to by the cult of personality. 

Will be interesting to see who follows him once he steps down.

 

 

[Michael]

Newspaper headlines: 'Get out' of Ukraine and Russia could invade 'any day' - BBC News

I am currently in Ukraine and despite the headlines, as well as the warnings by the British and American embassies, life goes on as usual on the streets of every city in Ukraine. I am not disputing the intel that the UK government and other major governments have as regards to the situation with Russia, but part of me feels that the US in particular, is stirring the pot to a degree. Even the Ukrainian government alluded to the fact that the US was causing alarm with their rhetoric and that people should remain calm about this situation.

It doesn't seem either that our British government has helped that much in resolving this issue. Truss's meeting with Lavrov was a disaster. I understand that we shouldn't bend over to please the Russians, but threatening them will only lead to them becoming even more antagonistic, which will push everyone away from a peaceful outcome. The fact that the Russian media has said that Moscow finds it easier to hold diplomatic talks in Kiev rather than London, I believe speaks volumes. I think Truss also needs to sharpen up on her geography, as apparently she confused lands that legitimately belong to Russia as being Ukrainian sovereign territory and she allegedly also confused the Black Sea with the Baltic Sea.

We shall see how this situation ultimately pans out in the coming days or weeks, but I personally think there is a much higher chance that Russia doesn't invade. It would be very counter productive in many ways for them and I don't think that they would be that foolish as to conduct a full on invasion of Ukraine.

[Waylander]

@Michael

Nearly all your points are on the alternative news sites in the US.

The mainstream call them conspiracy sites I think they are more objective though of course some articles are heavily biased as well.

I also can't tell how it will proceed as neither of us know if any dark actors are on the ground to provoke a reaction.

I recall a couple  of years ago Putin's driver was killed on a motorway, his car suddenly went out of control and mounted the central barrier colliding with oncoming traffic. It raised questions though was not widely reported.

 

[RandoEFC+]

 

Useful as ever from Ros Atkins on the situation, for anyone like me who has a flimsy understanding of the politics at play whilst also not knowing who to trust for better information. I trust this guy.

[Batard]

Putin simply cannot be allowed to determine the sovereignty of another county, irrespective of his views on NATO. If the West abandons to Ukraine to Russia then we have learned nothing from History. Germany used ethnic Germans as a means to destabilize countries for expansionism and control in the 1930s and Putin is using exactly the same approach. Once Ukraine becomes a vassal state, Georgia will be the next. They're actively engaging in wanting to join the EU and by flanking each side of the country in problems it prevents the country from being able to do so. 

Putin recognizes that a more democratic neighbour on its doorstep will only pull further away from their sphere of influence. Indeed by attacking now he's moving before Ukraine becomes too difficult to overcome. My concern goes out to the Baltic States, Putin will almost certainly want to extricate them from NATO. Whilst we cannot get into a nuclear exchange, Russia cannot be allowed to dictate terms of sovereignty for another nation. 

[Azeem]

Do they talk like normal people in these world consequences calls !

" You withdraw troops "

" No you withdraw "

[Michael]

“The sky remains open”: Ukraine clarified the situation with air traffic over the territory of the country - Then24

I spent the earlier part of today in a bit of a panic, as I read Ukrainian online sources state the following: "️ Most likely from tomorrow, from 16:00 Kyiv time, air traffic in Ukraine will be suspended." Apparently this was a quote from one of the ministers, his name escapes me. Seeing as my flight out of Ukraine is on Wednesday, this news would have put me in a bit of a pickle. However, I was relieved to read several hours later, that Mykhailo Podolyak, Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, had announced the following: "Ukraine sees no point in closing the airspace. This is nonsense. I think that in some sense it resembles a partial blockade,”

So hopefully things stay as they are between now and the 16th of February, so that I can get my backside out of here. 

[nudge]

7 minutes ago, Michael said:

“The sky remains open”: Ukraine clarified the situation with air traffic over the territory of the country - Then24

I spent the earlier part of today in a bit of a panic, as I read Ukrainian online sources state the following: "️ Most likely from tomorrow, from 16:00 Kyiv time, air traffic in Ukraine will be suspended." Apparently this was a quote from one of the ministers, his name escapes me. Seeing as my flight out of Ukraine is on Wednesday, this news would have put me in a bit of a pickle. However, I was relieved to read several hours later, that Mykhailo Podolyak, Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, had announced the following: "Ukraine sees no point in closing the airspace. This is nonsense. I think that in some sense it resembles a partial blockade,”

So hopefully things stay as they are between now and the 16th of February, so that I can get my backside out of here. 

If you stay, you could be our own frontline reporter though... Imagine the traffic it would bring to the forum! 

[Tommy]

47 minutes ago, nudge said:

If you stay, you could be our own frontline reporter though... Imagine the traffic it would bring to the forum! 

Yea, Michael. Don't be such a chicken and take one for the team! 

[Dr. Gonzo]

On 12/02/2022 at 08:25, Batard said:

Putin simply cannot be allowed to determine the sovereignty of another county, irrespective of his views on NATO. If the West abandons to Ukraine to Russia then we have learned nothing from History. Germany used ethnic Germans as a means to destabilize countries for expansionism and control in the 1930s and Putin is using exactly the same approach. Once Ukraine becomes a vassal state, Georgia will be the next. They're actively engaging in wanting to join the EU and by flanking each side of the country in problems it prevents the country from being able to do so. 

Putin recognizes that a more democratic neighbour on its doorstep will only pull further away from their sphere of influence. Indeed by attacking now he's moving before Ukraine becomes too difficult to overcome. My concern goes out to the Baltic States, Putin will almost certainly want to extricate them from NATO. Whilst we cannot get into a nuclear exchange, Russia cannot be allowed to dictate terms of sovereignty for another nation. 

Part of me agrees with this because history shows if you appease a dictator with expansionist goals in Europe... well... we all know about WW2.

On the other hand, I do find it funny that the loudest voices talking about protecting Ukraine's sovereignty being the US and UK... probably the two countries that have not respected other countries sovereignties in the last century. And when you couple that with things like Ukraine's president telling Biden to calm down with the imminent invasion rhetoric last week, it does strike me as a bit... odd...

It's a bad position Putin is putting the EU in - they can't afford to sit by as a country actively demonstrates its expansionist intent, but the natural gas dependence the EU has on Russia might make it difficult for the EU to effectively take any meaningful stand to prevent invasion.

I think if the West really wants to take on Putin, they've got to hit him where it hurts... hit his oligarchs. Cut them off from the US SWIFT banking system so they can't access their cash reserves they have in foreign bank accounts outside Russia and I think Putin's position becomes untenable as these billionaires clambour to replace him with someone who'll get them access to their money again.

[Waylander]

Russia has already said if they are cut off from Swift they will devise their own on-line settlement platform, SWIFT is not unique just the recognised payment system.

When you see that the Baltics  and Finland as well as Ukraine were part of Imperial Russia and how since the end of the USSR have been allowed self determination think we need to be cautious before we demonise too much.

The Donbass region is heavily concentrated with Russians that have lived in Ukraine.

Crimea reminds me of Hawaii would the US allow the Hawaiians the chance of self determination outside of the US and I mean by that those of historic Hawaiin blood , I think not much too important in military affairs and I think for Russia Crimea is the same.

History is interesting too in the 1850s the French and British fought the Russians in Crimea, including the charge of the Light Brigade.

Stalin also moved around peoples including in Crimea.

So it is very difficult to judge one side vs the other.

I personally think this is about empires and who controls the fossil fuels and who buys them.

Recently Germany was buying Russian fuel which was cheaper than US$ priced fuel. Germany is now under pressure to stop buying Russian fuel as this media war increases in intensity.

[nudge]

2 minutes ago, Waylander said:

When you see that the Baltics  and Finland as well as Ukraine were part of Imperial Russia and how since the end of the USSR have been allowed self determination think we need to be cautious before we demonise too much.

"Allowed self-determination"  Gee, I guess we should be thankful that we were "allowed" to restore our legitimate 980 year old state after 200 years of oppressive yet unsuccessful Russification policies.

[Waylander]

10 minutes ago, nudge said:

"Allowed self-determination"  Gee, I guess we should be thankful that we were "allowed" to restore our legitimate 980 year old state after 200 years of oppressive yet unsuccessful Russification policies.

I'm struggling with your dates, who are you referring too?

Poland?

Edited February 14, 2022 by Waylander

[nudge]

Just now, Waylander said:

I'm struggling with your dates, who are you referring too?

Lithuania. First mention of Lithuania in 1009, unified under one Duke in the 13th century, Kingdom of Lithuania founded in 1253. Grand Duchy of Lithuania was the largest country in Europe by the 14th century, then it was transformed into the Commonwealth of Poland and Lithuania in 1569, then got partitioned three times by the Russian Empire, Prussia, and the Habsburg Monarchy in the late 18th century. Two unsuccessful uprisings in the mid 19th century, and then finally regained independece in 1918, only to lose it thanks to  Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and be occupied first by the Germans and then given to the Soviets after the WWII. Then after ongoing partisan and dissident activities for over 40 years, the first Soviet-occupied state to announce the restitution of independence in 1990. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

37 minutes ago, Waylander said:

Russia has already said if they are cut off from Swift they will devise their own on-line settlement platform, SWIFT is not unique just the recognised payment system.

But that won't help their oligarchs get access to the funds they have abroad. Having their own online settlement platform is one thing - but as the EU, Iran, Russia, and China learned when they contemplated setting up their own alternate system to allow Iranian exporters/importers to participate in business while avoiding US banks... if there's sanctions involved with being cut off from SWIFT (which there would absolutely be), then any bank that does business in the US or UK (almost all of them) won't participate with an alternate payment scheme.

The biggest reason to not cut Russia off from SWIFT is Russia would likely be unable to settle any debts/obligations owed to European countries while interest accrues and while European creditors remain unpaid until Russia settles down to a point where they can be trusted to be put back into the world of global banking. And I think for a lot of people who think mostly about finances, that's probably a wholly unacceptable position to them.

However, I think that short term economic damage is probably worth it if the alternative outright warfare.

46 minutes ago, Waylander said:

Crimea reminds me of Hawaii would the US allow the Hawaiians the chance of self determination outside of the US and I mean by that those of historic Hawaiin blood , I think not much too important in military affairs and I think for Russia Crimea is the same.

I'm not sure this analogy works out too well. Afterall, Crimea had it's referendum after Russia had already invaded Crimea... and the results of the referendum were sort of in that "literally unbelievable" referendum result with something like 98% supporting Russian annexation (like an election for Bashar al Assad in Syria or Ilhan Aliyev in Azerbaijan, an election result designed to show overwhelming public support with a small percentage allocated to show "look we gave people a real choice").

I agree the US would never voluntarily give up one of it's states to allow the ethnic people to have sovereignty over what was once the Kingdom of Hawaii... but this would be more akin to a country invading Hawaii and holding a referendum... which I don't think the US would accept either. And realistically, I think only China would try that... but unlike Russia with Crimea, I don't think the Chinese could successfully claim that most people living in Hawaii are ethnically Chinese  (though there's definitely some Chinese and Japanese influence on the islands - but there's also a huge American/British influence on the islands as well... and the natives are ethnically Maori - or some other type of Polynesian I believe).

A better analogy, imo, is much closer to Russia. It would be that contested Nagorno-Karabagh area Azerbaijan and Armenia fought over not too long ago. That land contained the Republic of Artsakh, which is made up ethnically of Armenians but was in Azerbaijan's land. While Armenia provided (and still provides support) to the Armenians there, they never officially recognised Artsakh. But if Armenia were to suddenly claim that land and annex it into Armenia, that would be basically the same thing Russia have done with Crimea.

Ironically, there, Russia conceded that the land there is Azerbaijan's and maintains that Armenia - while having historic ties to the land - has no right to sovereignty of that land within Azerbaijan.

[6666]

So how much are the words of the US & UK helping matters? Putin doesn't seem like the type to back down after threats of consequences.

[Azeem]

4 hours ago, 6666 said:

So how much are the words of the US & UK helping matters? Putin doesn't seem like the type to back down after threats of consequences.

No one apart from US and allies are evacuating their embassy staff, seems are bit of warmongering from their part.

[Tommy]

How many different long tables does he have? 

[Azeem]

Some Russian troops and equipment are allegedly going back

Meanwhile 

[RandoEFC+]

The rhetoric from Johnson and Biden and the front pages in the UK at least had a markedly different tone last night/this morning, suggesting that the invasion might not be as imminent and unavoidable as people have been suggesting.

A cynic might suggest that with both Biden and Johnson under pressure domestically, Biden potentially losing control of the legislature at the US mid-terms and Johnson facing a police investigation and ongoing rumours of a leadership challenge and bracing for a difficult set of local election results this Spring, that perhaps both of them aren't ungrateful for an opportunity to make the Russia/Ukraine situation sound more perilous than it was before taking credit for a deescalation.