UK Politics & Brexit Discussion

[CaaC (John)+]

Think I will become a Tory MP, illegal parties and piss ups in the cabinet room, watching porn movies in the House of Commons, I can invite all you lot then to a TF365 piss up with plenty of booze, porn and a few joints.    

[RandoEFC+]

Pornhub, Cornhub, easy mistake to make.

[CaaC (John)+]

 

[RandoEFC+]

Make sure you vote in the locals tomorrow!

YouGov projecting a poor but not disastrous night for the Tories and Labour to make gains in Scotland, Wales, London but not so much the rest of England.

I've become a bit of an unashamed nerd when it comes to political polling and stuff so always interested to see how people vote and if the Tories get a kicking in any way, that's a bonus.

[Bluewolf]

[Stan]

Labour bagging Barnet, Wandsworth and Westminster is huge. 

[RandoEFC+]

Very good night for Labour in London. The rest of England a very mixed bag. Some seats that were last contested in 2018 in the likes of Nuneaton actually went from Labour to Conservative. On one hand, this is them catching up with the 2019 general election "realignment" but also can't be taken as simply accepted for Labour. Their vote held up well in some areas though, Hartlepool was expected to go worse after they got trounced in the 2020 parliamentary by-election but all of their seats there held up. They also smashed a majority in the Cumberland council which covers a jurisdiction that currently has three Conservative MPs. Also some losses to the Lib Dems in Hull and a few seats to the Greens in places like the Wirral. Largely an alright recovery for Labour but not enough to point to a majority at the next election.

Lib Dems and Greens had some pretty big gains in various areas. The Tories have very little to be positive about. Obliterated in London, mixed bag across the rest of England, but suppose they could have expected a lot worse given their scandal-ridden term in Westminster.

I think the Welsh and Scottish results are due in today. Polling appears to suggest Labour will decisively overtake the Tories and become the second party in Scotland whilst also making a few further gains in Wales where they're already the dominant party. Should give them licence to put a positive spin on the election cycle overall but digging into the detail, more is needed to get into government in a couple of years' time.

[Stan]

33 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

Very good night for Labour in London. The rest of England a very mixed bag. Some seats that were last contested in 2018 in the likes of Nuneaton actually went from Labour to Conservative. On one hand, this is them catching up with the 2019 general election "realignment" but also can't be taken as simply accepted for Labour. Their vote held up well in some areas though, Hartlepool was expected to go worse after they got trounced in the 2020 parliamentary by-election but all of their seats there held up. They also smashed a majority in the Cumberland council which covers a jurisdiction that currently has three Conservative MPs. Also some losses to the Lib Dems in Hull and a few seats to the Greens in places like the Wirral. Largely an alright recovery for Labour but not enough to point to a majority at the next election.

Lib Dems and Greens had some pretty big gains in various areas. The Tories have very little to be positive about. Obliterated in London, mixed bag across the rest of England, but suppose they could have expected a lot worse given their scandal-ridden term in Westminster.

I think the Welsh and Scottish results are due in today. Polling appears to suggest Labour will decisively overtake the Tories and become the second party in Scotland whilst also making a few further gains in Wales where they're already the dominant party. Should give them licence to put a positive spin on the election cycle overall but digging into the detail, more is needed to get into government in a couple of years' time.

Despite the mixed results across England, it's a big statement to take such big names in London. It's not the be-all and end-all as there's still plenty of work, but wrestling that kind of control from the Tories plays in to Labour's hands massively. Coupled with Lib Dems making gains, the secret pact (!!!!) seems like it's taking form. It's a positive turning point on the face of it - just hope that momentum sticks with them over the next couple of years.

Surprised West Oxfordshire was taken from the Tories. That's a big loss as well in a heartland for them. 

[RandoEFC+]

35 minutes ago, Stan said:

Despite the mixed results across England, it's a big statement to take such big names in London. It's not the be-all and end-all as there's still plenty of work, but wrestling that kind of control from the Tories plays in to Labour's hands massively. Coupled with Lib Dems making gains, the secret pact (!!!!) seems like it's taking form. It's a positive turning point on the face of it - just hope that momentum sticks with them over the next couple of years.

Surprised West Oxfordshire was taken from the Tories. That's a big loss as well in a heartland for them. 

Anything that takes the majority away from the Tories has to be perceived as a positive. The pollsters seem to be suggesting results like these point toward another hung parliament rather than a Labour majority. The risk for Labour when things are in that ballpark rather than them looking at a majority, is that it opens the door for the Tories to scaremonger over the "secret pact with the EU-loving Lib Dems" (which I don't think is a very effective attack line) or the "Labour will give the SNP their second referendum" which might be more threatening. Time will tell. I was personally hoping for a bit more from Labour in the Midlands and some Northern areas given the absolute train wreck we've seen from this Conservative government. I agree though that things look largely positive and will look even better after the Scottish and Welsh results.

Also worth mentioning that Northern Ireland are electing their Stormont Assembly and Sinn Fein are likely to top the poll for the first time and have the opportunity to nominate a First Minister for Northern Ireland. Sinn Fein are also polling at their strongest level of support in the Republic of Ireland in recent years so there are more tests for the survival of the Union on the horizon as support for a united Ireland creeps up. I won't pretend to understand the constitutional implications and possibilities though. Northern Irish politics is badly under-reported in England.

[RandoEFC+]

Scotland appear to be finished counting.

Tories lose about 1/5 of their seats. Gains spread across SNP, Labour, Lib Dem and Green leaving Labour as the 2nd largest party as expected. Lib Dems making serious gains across England and Scotland it has to be said.

[RandoEFC+]

An absolute dicking in Wales so far as well:

Just put into context the fact that in these seats counted, Labour were sat on 230 and the Tories on only 116. The Tories have lost almost half of what they held directly (net) to Labour. Imagine the narrative from the Mail, Telegraph, etc. if the roles were reversed.

English results have worsened for the Tories throughout the day as well including Labour comfortably winning the "Red Wall" Wakefield Council in which the Tories are defending a parliamentary by-election in the near future.

Huge gains now for the Lib Dems and, relatively speaking, even more so for the Greens.

Tories taking a net hit so far of ~450 seats in total across the UK yet the narrative this morning was that things could have gone worse for "Boris".

[Bluebird Hewitt]

22 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

An absolute dicking in Wales so far as well:

Just put into context the fact that in these seats counted, Labour were sat on 230 and the Tories on only 116. The Tories have lost almost half of what they held directly (net) to Labour. Imagine the narrative from the Mail, Telegraph, etc. if the roles were reversed.

Quite happy my mate is no longer a councillor for my area in all honesty. Would have likely lost his seat thanks to the shitheads in the UK government.

[RandoEFC+]

In the latest episode of "this country and its media is very, very normal", we bring you the Prime Minister's sister using her platform on a national radio show to criticise his main opponent.

This comes just days after a national "news"paper declared the PM as "back on track" following the local elections.

For context, here are how many seats were won and lost by each of the parties and, yes, Johnson's Conservative party is the blue bar.

Tin-pot stuff.

[Stan]

And most of the red wall didn't even have elections to vote on I think? 

[MUFC]

 

[Stan]

 

[RandoEFC+]

[RandoEFC+]

On 17/05/2022 at 18:12, Stan said:

 

 

As I said...

[RandoEFC+]

 

I'm so sick of this cunt and his party that won't get rid of him. What the fuck are they clinging on for anyway? This government literally hasn't done anything since they won their majority aside from scandals and u-turns. Being in power is enough for them and they've realised that their best option at this point is hope people have forgotten how shite they are before the next election and the incessant smear campaign their mates in the media deploy against Labour is enough to allow them to cling on for another term. Not a single member of that party has a genuine vision for the country anymore.

[RandoEFC+]

The Met genuinely needs to be fully disbanded and rebuilt from scratch on this evidence as well. Can't blame it all on Cressida Dick anymore.

[Bluewolf]

4 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

 

I'm so sick of this cunt and his party that won't get rid of him. What the fuck are they clinging on for anyway? This government literally hasn't done anything since they won their majority aside from scandals and u-turns. Being in power is enough for them and they've realised that their best option at this point is hope people have forgotten how shite they are before the next election and the incessant smear campaign their mates in the media deploy against Labour is enough to allow them to cling on for another term. Not a single member of that party has a genuine vision for the country anymore.

I was reading this morning about new pictures being released in a matter of hours showing Johnson either lied outright or that they tried to cover up the worst of it.. We are totally fucked when he can behave the way he behaves and still come out saying he is the right choice to lead the country forward and all those that could do something are only interested in self preservation... 

[Bluewolf]

Also in other news... 

Former Tory MP jailed for sexually assaulting 15-year-old boy (msn.com)

 

[RandoEFC+]

10 minutes ago, Bluewolf said:

I was reading this morning about new pictures being released in a matter of hours showing Johnson either lied outright or that they tried to cover up the worst of it.. We are totally fucked when he can behave the way he behaves and still come out saying he is the right choice to lead the country forward and all those that could do something are only interested in self preservation... 

Apparently the Met have seen this as well and decided this wasn't worthy of a fine. Absolutely disgraceful if that's true. Look at the collection of booze on that table at a time when only two people were allowed to meet indoors.

It's saying a lot that the Tories reckon their best play throughout this whole scandal (about 6 or 7 months now isn't it?) is to stick by this clearly politically untenable buffoon.

The next election really should be an open goal for Labour and the other opposing parties. They better not fuck it up.

[Waylander]

The problem as I see it, is we could have both leaders of Tories and Labour locked up for socialising during lock downs. 

Ok Boris looks worse yet the data came later on Labour as the Tories were defending themselves.

This is such a non-issue when we consider Tony Blair lied about weapons of mass destruction and we attacked Iraq.

People do not care about this,  it is more about economics, jobs and inflation caused largely by Bidenenko's desire to push Russia towards conflict. They just underestimated how seriously they would take it. They gambled sanctions would cripple Russia yet again that has not worked so far.

Currently smuggling in weapons for the Ukrainians to use so no end in sight so no fuel through the pipelines and no wheat or pesticide from two of the worlds biggest providers. The fuel price increase inacrease the cost of all manufactured goods and processed food and transported food. 

Edited May 23, 2022 by Waylander

[Bluewolf]

More pictures to emerge in the next 24-48 hours according to Dominic Cummings... 

Partygate pictures to be published within 48-hours, claims Dominic Cummings (msn.com)