The Relegation Battle 2023

[Devil]

Southampton, Everton, Leeds.

That's my final three. Everton actually were the worst side I think we've faced this season. Leeds are all out attack and don't possess the players capable of playing defensive and Southampton are already gone.

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

I think it'll be Southampton, Leeds and Leicester now tbh.

[Dan+]

Any hope I had on us died about 5 minutes in today when it was clear that a Fulham side who have absolutely nothing to play for, missing three of their best players were far more up for it than us. These players are dead to me. We won't even hit Everton in 17ths 32 let alone any more. We're done. It was a great ride. But it's over. And if what I read about the complacency still plaguing the club is true then it'll be a long time until we're back.

[RandoEFC+]

That's it for Southampton if it wasn't already.

Forest have the points advantage on 33 after their win tonight, but they have Chelsea away, Arsenal home and Palace away remaining. There's a decent chance they won't win another game.

Everton are next up on 32 points. After tonight's surprise win, they're 2 points clear of the drop zone. City at home next is tempting to write off with Wolves away and Bournemouth at home in the last two, but with that game taking place between City's two Champions League semi final matches and them knowing they can afford to drop points once without losing the title, Everton might not be so quick to rule themselves out.

Leicester are on 30 points with a comfortable goal difference advantage over the other teams so let's call it 30.5 points. Liverpool at home and Newcastle away next are not what you want to see on your schedule though, especially now that the race for top four is potentially open again and both teams still have a job to do. West Ham at home on the last day should be favourable with a potential European final on the cards for the Hammers but Leicester look likely to need favours from elsewhere by then even if they win that one.

Leeds have 30 points and a bad goal difference but they showed some fight against Man City, only losing 2-1. With Newcastle at home, West Ham away and Spurs at home remaining, they won't be favourites in any of those games but you also wouldn't bet against Big Sam finding a way to win one of them.

On balance, I think we have the best combination of points tally and remaining fixtures but we've upset the odds tonight at Brighton and the same could quite easily happen in another team's favour between now and the end of the season.

[Stan]

38 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

Leicester are on 30 points with a comfortable goal difference advantage over the other teams so let's call it 30.5 points.

I understand why GD is brought up in these arguments but it's totally irrelevant if we're not going to be level on points with two of yourselves, Leeds or Forest. 

The advantage counts for nothing really at this point. 

It'll probably be too late even if we were too win against West Ham (we're not beating Liverpool or Newcastle before then). 

West Ham's final is 10 days after the game with us if they make it. Plenty of time to recover. 

[Dan+]

Nobody who watched that Fulham game would give us a chance. We're done. We will be gone before the final day.

It's between Leeds and Forest to join us. Sadly, I think it'll be Leeds. And the lucky vermin will survive.

[Dan+]

I'll tell you what'll happen. We'll finish on 33.

We will get relegated at Newcastle, after being beaten heavily both there and against Liverpool.

We'll then rub everyone's nose in it by beating West Ham with nothing to play for. It'll sum them up.

[Devil-Dick Willie]

I want a fucking undertaker style rise from the grave from Southampton to win all their remaining games, and send Leeds, Leicester and Everton down the hole for maximum psychic shock to the forum. 

[OrangeKhrush]

outside Southampton it is to close to call

[Stan]

1 hour ago, OrangeKhrush said:

outside Southampton it is to close to call

Is it though? 

Leeds and ourselves can't defend for shit. Everton and Forest appear to have enough fight in them. 

[RandoEFC+]

On 02/05/2023 at 10:57, RandoEFC said:

Updated odds anyway:

Southampton 97.6% (+2.4%)

Leeds 63.6% (+16.0%)

Everton 57.9% (-8.8%)

Nottm Forest 52.4% (-4.7%)

Leicester 34.8% (-3.3%)

West Ham 2.9% (+0.5%)

West Ham's win this weekend leaves them all but mathematically safe, and the latest team to reduce their probability of relegation to below 1%, leaving five teams on the chopping block.

According to "Oddschecker", who admittedly look to find you the best odds and therefore result in the lowest likelihoods when I convert them to percentages here, these are the latest probabilities.

Southampton 99.0% (+1.4%)

Leeds 71.4% (+7.8%)

Leicester 69.2% (+34.4%)

Nottm Forest 36.4% (-16.0%)

Everton 25.0% (-32.9%)

 

The only surprise here really is that anyone is still giving Southampton a 1% chance of survival. Wins for Everton and Forest shift the odds in their favour and against Leeds and Leicester. The rates vary though, Leeds taking minimal damage, partly because their chances were already so bleak, but also because nobody was expecting anything for them from Man City, while Leicester were beaten convincingly in one of their two most winnable remaining fixtures. Forest put themselves on the right side of 50% with their somewhat expected victory at home to Southampton but Everton's 7/1 win at Brighton slashed their likelihood of relegation to less than half of what it was.

[OrangeKhrush]

2 hours ago, Stan said:

Is it though? 

Leeds and ourselves can't defend for shit. Everton and Forest appear to have enough fight in them. 

I think so, admittedly you and Leeds chose a shit time to be really shit but Everton and Forest aren't exactly blowing it down.  Everton may have destroyed Brighton against expectations, but they have been so poor lately.

I do fear for Leicester though and I really don't want to be the team that relegates them, but business needs to be done still.

[Stan]

7 minutes ago, OrangeKhrush said:

I think so, admittedly you and Leeds chose a shit time to be really shit but Everton and Forest aren't exactly blowing it down.  Everton may have destroyed Brighton against expectations, but they have been so poor lately.

I do fear for Leicester though and I really don't want to be the team that relegates them, but business needs to be done still.

Oh of course, I wouldn't envy Newcastle going for the absolute kill against us. Well within their rights. You'd imagine they'd have seen yesterday's game and easily identified where to attack us (if not, they're blind or stupid ). 

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if it was another 9-0. Or more. Fulham were missing the spine of their team and still tucked away 5 incredibly easy goals. 

You just think that Everton playing like they did yesterday gives them enough momentum and motivation to get 1 win out of their next 3. And same for Forest, is it really out of the realms of possibility for them to get 1 more win against any of their next 3?

I think it's just too late now. The malaise is well and truly set in across all areas of the club. The worst thing is that it's out of our hands now, when before this weekends games we put ourselves in a better position. 

2 points from Leeds, Everton and Fulham is not acceptable really. 

[OrangeKhrush]

6 minutes ago, Stan said:

Oh of course, I wouldn't envy Newcastle going for the absolute kill against us. Well within their rights. You'd imagine they'd have seen yesterday's game and easily identified where to attack us (if not, they're blind or stupid ). 

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if it was another 9-0. Or more. Fulham were missing the spine of their team and still tucked away 5 incredibly easy goals. 

You just think that Everton playing like they did yesterday gives them enough momentum and motivation to get 1 win out of their next 3. And same for Forest, is it really out of the realms of possibility for them to get 1 more win against any of their next 3?

I think it's just too late now. The malaise is well and truly set in across all areas of the club. The worst thing is that it's out of our hands now, when before this weekends games we put ourselves in a better position. 

2 points from Leeds, Everton and Fulham is not acceptable really. 

we need a clean sheet I'd be happy with a professional 2-0.

we are without Longstaff for the rest of the season, apparently he matters a lot more than seemed obvious before

seeing the fall of Leicester has been a sobering reminder of the cutthroat nature of the premier league and how important it is to plan in advance.

[Dan+]

I think it's quite clear it's us and Leeds now. Basically as expected it's the outcome I didn't want. Coventry will win the play-offs too. This season is basically your worst nightmare if you're us.

[Dan+]

I'm glad we got this forum back online, means I've still got some of the receipts:

On 20/08/2022 at 22:30, Dan said:

As for what really matters. It really is hard to know where to start with us now. I think we're really in danger of having a season like Everton did last year - and I'm not convinced this lot have the same fight to get themselves out of it. They might discover it within them if things get genuinely precarious but the direction of travel is actually quite worrying to me at this point. It's beyond thinking we've pissed a top 4 chance up the wall but it's more that we really are sleepwalking into a relegation battle. We could be bottom of the league on Monday and we've played Brentford and Southampton at home. That's as bad a start as I can remember from us.

The majority of our games in the last year weren't actually all that dissimilar to today. I think we've taken the mental weakness up further a notch and we're clearly absolutely shot to bits to a point there's zero belief to see a game out. Even when we scored today we just dropped unbelievably deep. There was a point not all that long ago that we'd have pushed and probably got 2/3 against a very inexperienced Southampton side. But we just stood off and waited for the inevitable collapse.

Brentford at home. 2-0 up. Bottled.

Arsenal away. 2-0 down, brought back to 2-1, conceded within a minute. Brought back to 3-2, conceded within a minute AGAIN.

Southampton at home. 1-0 up. Lost.

It's absolutely disgraceful. It's indefensible. If Fulham or Bournemouth produced that they would be getting written off as heading off back to the Championship and there wouldn't be too many arguments.

Rodgers is obviously finished here. There is absolutely no way on this planet he turns this round. Suit all parties and wish him good luck. It's getting sour now. He isn't liked by the fans (which is mental when you think what's actually happened under him and yet it's true, and that isn't by accident) and I don't think he's too keen on the fans himself. We've been playing appalling football for ages now. We are time and time again having dreadful displays patched over by a Maddison wondergoal or a defensive howler gifting us a chance rather than any cohesive football that opens up the oppposition. There's only so long you can sustain it.

This is before you even get onto the players. Our number of players who I think you can rely on to pull us through these tricky times are dwindling. Fofana's done here. Tielemans looks similar. Schmeichel has gone. Soyuncu isn't going to play again under this manager.

We're relegation candidates for me.

 

I wasn't the only one saying this either. The clubs total complacency from this early on has been alarming. What truly alarms me is I genuinely think even a relegation won't quash the misplaced arrogance. They'll see what Burnley have done this season having totally overhauled their squad, knowing that we're going to be forced into similar, and assume that it'll just happen by magic. Calling it now, we won't even make the play-offs next season.

[Dan+]

Us and Leeds both 1/3 to go down after todays results. Think it's pretty clear where this is heading.

[Whiskey]

Tomorrow seems like a bit of a free hit for us tbh, I don't think we will but I think three points would see us survive.

[Dave]

I think Forest needed a win today. I'd be surprised with our relegation record if we don't add another scalp to our collection.

Everton got away last season, but I put that down to a combination of Goodison being an incredible atmosphere that night and a wound from the 4-0 quarter final for added motivation. Forest are at our ground, on our terms, when we send off a fantastic human in Roy Hodgson and possibly our best ever player in Wilfried Zaha 

[Dan+]

4 minutes ago, The Palace Fan said:

I think Forest needed a win today. I'd be surprised with our relegation record if we don't add another scalp to our collection.

Everton got away last season, but I put that down to a combination of Goodison being an incredible atmosphere that night and a wound from the 4-0 quarter final for added motivation. Forest are at our ground, on our terms, when we send off a fantastic human in Roy Hodgson and possibly our best ever player in Wilfried Zaha 

You're up against almost demonic levels of luck. I'm not quite sure it'll pay off this time. Though your services to relegating teams hasn't gone unnoticed and nor did it when I saw they had you on the final day.

I know we have a game on Leeds but our next two are revolting. We aren't hauling either of them in. Would take an extraordinary upturn and I've seen this team blow it enough times now to know it isn't happening. The constant about this team is they will let you down. I just want it flushing out and starting again to be honest.

[Dave]

8 minutes ago, Dan said:

You're up against almost demonic levels of luck. I'm not quite sure it'll pay off this time. Though your services to relegating teams hasn't gone unnoticed and nor did it when I saw they had you on the final day.

I know we have a game on Leeds but our next two are revolting. We aren't hauling either of them in. Would take an extraordinary upturn and I've seen this team blow it enough times now to know it isn't happening. The constant about this team is they will let you down. I just want it flushing out and starting again to be honest.

You're only six goals off Blackpool's insane record of 55 goals and relegated. So it's clear what needs improving for the next three games.

[Dan+]

15 minutes ago, The Palace Fan said:

You're only six goals off Blackpool's insane record of 55 goals and relegated. So it's clear what needs improving for the next three games.

I think that's very plausible. If I know this team, they will go and stick 3/4 past West Ham with nothing to play for.

[RandoEFC+]

2 hours ago, Whiskey said:

Tomorrow seems like a bit of a free hit for us tbh, I don't think we will but I think three points would see us survive.

Any three points from the last three *should* be enough for us although I'd obviously prefer not to need it on the last day. If we can get to 35 points then the other teams need to do the following to beat us:

Forest need 2 points from Arsenal at home and Palace away to overtake us because of their poor goal difference.

Leeds have West Ham away and Spurs at home. I wouldn't be surprised to see them get anything between 0 and 6 points. 4 points would be enough to get them to 35 as well with a 4 goal swing on goal difference which is very believable if they win one, we win one and lose two.

Leicester would need 5 or more points from Liverpool home, Newcastle away and West Ham home. 

We can afford one of them to finish ahead of us and stay up. If we get one more win it would seem pretty good odds for us.

[Stan]

22 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

Any three points from the last three *should* be enough for us although I'd obviously prefer not to need it on the last day. If we can get to 35 points then the other teams need to do the following to beat us:

Forest need 2 points from Arsenal at home and Palace away to overtake us because of their poor goal difference.

Leeds have West Ham away and Spurs at home. I wouldn't be surprised to see them get anything between 0 and 6 points. 4 points would be enough to get them to 35 as well with a 4 goal swing on goal difference which is very believable if they win one, we win one and lose two.

Leicester would need 5 or more points from Liverpool home, Newcastle away and West Ham home. 

We can afford one of them to finish ahead of us and stay up. If we get one more win it would seem pretty good odds for us.

You'll easily get enough points from Wolves and Bournemouth. 

I think you're pretty much safe now. That Brighton win was huge. 

[RandoEFC+]

15 minutes ago, Stan said:

You'll easily get enough points from Wolves and Bournemouth. 

I think you're pretty much safe now. That Brighton win was huge. 

Not easily. City are odds on to beat us, Wolves away could easily go against us, that Brighton win was only our second away win of the season. We could go into the last day in 18th and I would back us to beat Bournemouth if we needed but say Leeds have snuck a win at West Ham and they know beating Spurs keeps them ahead of us, that could easily be the carrot they need. Relying on the last day is a dangerous, dangerous game.