UK Politics

[Fairy In Boots]

Weren't the Labour Party gearing up to change their rules so the could get rid of Corbyn anyway? Smart move from May grab a majority now while the opponent is weak. If she had to fight an election in 3 years time after she'd no doubt given the EU something it's not a vote grabber

[Fairy In Boots]

[Spike]

The UK has been shit since the economic bubble of the 90s, come now.

[Kowabunga]

3 hours ago, HoneyNUFC said:

I'm from a traditional Labour safe seat on Tyneside but I am currently an economic migrant in a Tory safe seat in London.

Voted for the Animal Welfare Party in the London Mayoral elections. Sadiq Khan is about as left wing as his great uncle Genghis.

 

Not sure. Voter turnout in my home town in 2015 was the same as where I live now, back home the Labour candidate won with 48.2% of the vote, here in London where I am now the Conservative candidate won with 62.2%

If that helps at all?

It is a limited sample and with one more degree of freedom than expected.  I meant more in the lines of the analysis of the residuals of the turnout % for a specific  constituency relative to the average national turnout in that particular election vs the difference between the first and the second candidate in the constituency in those elections (the polling ensemble would be better, but actual results are a decent proxy).

I wonder if the mechanism of causality that follows: "in constituencies where the candidate is expected to sweep the ballots, why you would care to vote, in constrast to being motivated to vote in a constituency where the result is uncertain" could be reflected in turnout data.

[Fairy In Boots]

1 hour ago, Spike said:

The UK has been shit since the economic bubble of the 90s, come now.

If In relation to my hat post, it's a joke not a serious point.

[Spike]

Just now, Fairy In Boots said:

If In relation to my hat post, it's a joke not a serious point.

So was mine.

[Kowabunga]

4 hours ago, Cure said:

Which electoral system do you have in Spain?

Closed lists in the Congress with a proportional system of plurinominal fixed electoral districts you can't gerrymander: the provinces (ranging from circa 35 mps in Madrid to 3 in the least populated provinces)**. It gives a subtle edge to the conservative forces as the sparsely populated provinces have a better members of parliament elected/population ratio, and by default conservative are strong in the countryside, the least populated districts.

Open lists for the Senate. You vote for 3 candidates and the 4 candidates with the most votes in the electoral district (the province)** are elected.

*Ceuta and Melilla are different. They are de facto FTPT districts.

**Ceuta and Melilla and the islands are different. They elect less senators.

[Honey Honey]

41 minutes ago, Kowabunga said:

It is a limited sample and with one more degree of freedom than expected.  I meant more in the lines of the analysis of the residuals of the turnout % for a specific  constituency relative to the average national turnout in that particular election vs the difference between the first and the second candidate in the constituency in those elections (the polling ensemble would be better, but actual results are a decent proxy).

I wonder if the mechanism of causality that follows: "in constituencies where the candidate is expected to sweep the ballots, why you would care to vote, in constrast to being motivated to vote in a constituency where the result is uncertain" could be reflected in turnout data.

I've just done a quick scan of a couple of low turnout seats to see if voting intention could be related to an election not being much of a contest but I'm not seeing any consistency. 

Demographic research commonly find's young people, the poorest in society and black and minority ethnic groups all have a lower voter turnout than the national average. The older the population the higher the turnout. 

That might not be consistent at a constituency level though.

There might be some other minor factors like proximity to a voting station, intentions to use postal voting etc

[Bluebird Hewitt]

5 hours ago, Fairy In Boots said:

Plaid Cymru just fuck off as relevant as Cornish independence, same goes for Northern Ireland really.

Why so harsh on Cornish Independence? 

[Honey Honey]

I would like to resurrect the kingdom of Northumbria, our land was stolen to the North by the Scots tribe and to the south by the settling Vikings, then our final home was forced under the boot of the Norman aristocracy by occupation and genocide.

This is no union we agreed to. Independence now. 

 

[RandoEFC+]

Really hoping for the miracle Labour victory as the Tories have done untold damage to the Education sector (teacher here, remember) since coming into power no matter what spin they try and put on how effective their free schools have been.

Can't stand the Tories and can't stand Theresa May. Anyone who believes the tripe about 'uniting parliament to concentrate on Brexit' needs taking outside and shooting. This is a tactical move to exploit the weakness of the Labour party and it would be utterly hilarious if it backfires.

[The Artful Dodger]

I don't think I'll bother voting, there's no credible left option. Corbyn has decent views on health, education but spends too much time on irrelevant issues and has been a complete wet blanket of a leader, he lacks the aggression we need. Plus he's enabled the Brexit right-wing.

As for May's logic, it's either just a straightforward power grab or it's too rid herself of the hard Br exit chain, maybe both. She wins then she won't be so beholden to the right-wing loons of her party. 

[Fairy In Boots]

1 hour ago, Bluebird Hewitt said:

Why so harsh on Cornish Independence? 

As a Cornish bloke said to me just last week, "it's a laugh that's got out of hand, they want to get jobs" 

1 hour ago, HoneyNUFC said:

I would like to resurrect the kingdom of Northumbria, our land was stolen to the North by the Scots tribe and to the south by the settling Vikings, then our final home was forced under the boot of the Norman aristocracy by occupation and genocide.

This is no union we agreed to. Independence now. 

 

I'm all for it 👍🏻 I'd happily support a Mercian national football team. 

Also as with all domestic election's the level of Tory hate is evident by the locations of folks. Back to the old labour don't need to change because of their comfy vote conundrum. They're just keep going to keep serving up shit and every cunt in a fairly large town North of Worcester is going to keep voting for them 🙄. This almost tribal voting is so damaging for us time and again. 

[Honey Honey]

It's reinforced by each party's behaviour in power towards areas they don't expect to win. From Newcastle city council having a 90% budget cut to David Cameron telling people on Teesside the great things he was doing for Tyneside.

[The Artful Dodger]

18 minutes ago, Fairy In Boots said:

As a Cornish bloke said to me just last week, "it's a laugh that's got out of hand, they want to get jobs" 

I'm all for it 👍🏻 I'd happily support a Mercian national football team. 

Also as with all domestic election's the level of Tory hate is evident by the locations of folks. Back to the old labour don't need to change because of their comfy vote conundrum. They're just keep going to keep serving up shit and every cunt in a fairly large town North of Worcester is going to keep voting for them 🙄. This almost tribal voting is so damaging for us time and again. 

There's a reason people hate the Tories and as Honey says, they aren't changing or attempting to gain votes up here either. The Tories haven't changed, they're just cleverer at hiding their more unpleasant sides and have picked up on the narrow minded interests of middle England and plenty of working class England too, where there is little sense of community you tend to find the Tories thrive. That's where we're at, there's not really much Labour can do as it stands, Corbyn isn't good enough but Labour shouldn't aim to move to Tory ground again, it's partly that which has left them in this position.

[The Artful Dodger]

Jesus, bet you go down well on the Gwladys.

[Cure]

20 minutes ago, Cannabis said:

Labour and the rest of the political parties should take a long, hard look at themselves before bashing the public or the Conservatives. 

I don't vote but if I did it would be for the Conservatives as there is nobody good enough in my view to make me want to change how things are working. The country is in pretty shit hands at the moment but would I want Corbyn in charge as an alternative? Would I fuck. Would I want Nick Clegg as an alternative? Would I fuck. 

The standard of politics and the disconnect from politicians to public is at an all time low. They're all corrupt and most of them are inept at actually making a difference to people's lives. Keep voting the Tories so that at least we've got some form of continuity rather than making things a bitter mess than they already are.

Nick Clegg isn't even standing. 

[Fairy In Boots]

9 minutes ago, The Artful Dodger said:

There's a reason people hate the Tories and as Honey says, they aren't changing or attempting to gain votes up here either. The Tories haven't changed, they're just cleverer at hiding their more unpleasant sides and have picked up on the narrow minded interests of middle England and plenty of working class England too, where there is little sense of community you tend to find the Tories thrive. That's where we're at, there's not really much Labour can do as it stands, Corbyn isn't good enough but Labour shouldn't aim to move to Tory ground again, it's partly that which has left them in this position.

Are you surprised, would you? they spent millions on Birmingham before the last election as Birmingham has huge problems with a feckless Labour council who've spent the last 30-40 years fucking themselves and the folk of Brum in the backside. The Tories have there conference here spending millions year after year, they make this overture or that overture, and come election time it's tribal voting again Labour again. It's like Stockholm syndrome we'll keep voting for ineffective complete cunts because reasons like "Thatcher stopped milk and closed the pits" the woman has been dead a few years now, it's absolutely insane.  

If i was a Tory PM, I'd think fuck Liverpool they'll give me fuck all, fuck Manchester, fuck Newcastle, fuck Hull, fuck Sheffield and so on, you could go out there give complimentary hand jobs and hand out's and the psyche is that ingrained for hatred they'll vote to type, it's a vicious cycle. All the while Labour don't really need to do fuck all as they're guaranteed many urban industrial areas. The main thing that fucked them last time, was Scotland, because the SNP actually were proactive and have reformed themselves giving Scotland a viable alternative to Labour, as they won't vote Tory.

Secondly what community are you talking about in 2017? in most big cities it's non-existent, the only places i know of thriving communities are smaller villages and towns which almost always vote Tory. The only real city I would say has a strong community feel is Liverpool and that's in part because of the victim complex it's built for itself over the years.

I have plenty of problems with things the Tories do (i'm concerned about our borrowing, don't think they're hard enough on corporate tax avoidance, i don't like fracking etc), but since about 2000 Labour have just been on a slow descent into the shambles they're now, the really scary thing is they still genuinely think for the most part that it's not their faults. That's the main reason I have and will continue to vote Tory, I'm sympathetic to some Labour core ideals, if they had sensible leadership and credible policies I'd be a candidate for a swing vote. Instead we get gimmicks with pledges on monoliths and hypocrisy over schooling while they peddle some utter gash class war.

 

 

[HK85]

24 minutes ago, The Artful Dodger said:

Jesus, bet you go down well on the Gwladys.

Seen people get slapped necks for less. 

[The Artful Dodger]

3 minutes ago, Fairy In Boots said:

Are you surprised, would you? they spent millions on Birmingham before the last election as Birmingham has huge problems with a feckless Labour council who've spent the last 30-40 years fucking themselves and the folk of Brum in the backside. The Tories have there conference here spending millions year after year, they make this overture or that overture, and come election time it's tribal voting again Labour again. It's like Stockholm syndrome we'll keep voting for ineffective complete cunts because reasons like "Thatcher stopped milk and closed the pits" the woman has been dead a few years now, it's absolutely insane.  

If i was a Tory PM, I'd think fuck Liverpool they'll give me fuck all, fuck Manchester, fuck Newcastle, fuck Hull, fuck Sheffield and so on, you could go out there give complimentary hand jobs and hand out's and the psyche is that ingrained for hatred they'll vote to type, it's a vicious cycle. All the while Labour don't really need to do fuck all as they're guaranteed many urban industrial areas. The main thing that fucked them last time, was Scotland, because the SNP actually were proactive and have reformed themselves giving Scotland a viable alternative to Labour, as they won't vote Tory.

Secondly what community are you talking about in 2017? in most big cities it's non-existent, the only places i know of thriving communities are smaller villages and towns which almost always vote Tory. The only real city I would say has a strong community feel is Liverpool and that's in part because of the victim complex it's built for itself over the years.

I have plenty of problems with things the Tories do (i'm concerned about our borrowing, don't think they're hard enough on corporate tax avoidance, i don't like fracking etc), but since about 2000 Labour have just been on a slow descent into the shambles they're now, the really scary thing is they still genuinely think for the most part that it's not their faults. That's the main reason I have and will continue to vote Tory, I'm sympathetic to some Labour core ideals, if they had sensible leadership and credible policies I'd be a candidate for a swing vote. Instead we get gimmicks with pledges on monoliths and hypocrisy over schooling while they peddle some utter gash class war.

 

 

Exactly, yet you only a post ago you were moaning about tribal politics and you freely admit the Tories hate the northern cities. They demolished them in the 80s and don't give me that bollocks, 'it was years ago' the thatcherite creed still burns bright and burns at out great cities the hardest. The tories punish our cities the most, its tribal from them, it's a fundamental discord we now have.

You may feel that way but for me the bigger cities have a greater sense of community, part of something bigger than some fox hunting, badger baiter noncing around in tweed jackets. That's not a community that's just Tory self preservation, happy among their own kinda and afraid of th changing world. It's us V them now, the cities are so different to our small towns and rural areas, many are scared of this but not all of us are and the cities should continue their upward trajectory. 

Im in no denial about the plight of Labour, they became a business and a class apart. 

[Fairy In Boots]

10 minutes ago, The Artful Dodger said:

Exactly, yet you only a post ago you were moaning about tribal politics and you freely admit the Tories hate the northern cities. They demolished them in the 80s and don't give me that bollocks, 'it was years ago' the thatcherite creed still burns bright and burns at out great cities the hardest. The tories punish our cities the most, its tribal from them, it's a fundamental discord we now have.

You may feel that way but for me the bigger cities have a greater sense of community, part of something bigger than some fox hunting, badger baiter noncing around in tweed jackets. That's not a community that's just Tory self preservation, happy among their own kinda and afraid of th changing world. It's us V them now, the cities are so different to our small towns and rural areas, many are scared of this but not all of us are and the cities should continue their upward trajectory. 

Im in no denial about the plight of Labour, they became a business and a class apart. 

I'm being pretty consistent, I'm saying Labour strongholds are essentially tribal voting now and as a consequence the Tories seem to be abandoning all effort to court them as it's a waste of time. I think this has led to Labour being complacent and we all suffer for it because a vibrant competitive Labour party would force the Tories to compete more to, instead they're not as we've settled into voting patterns.

I don't think the Tories are willfully destroying cities out of some sort of tribal calling, what utter gash. Having a negative effect due to ill thought out policy maybe but certainly not willfully nowadays. Thatcher is a topic in her own rite but we've had 27 years since her time, 13 of which were Labour and It shouldn't still be dominating political debate in this country, we should be arguing policy going forward, the whole thing is counter productive.

Noncing around in tweed and Badger baiting  Jesus you're classist, actually you'll find that many smaller satellite communities tend to be from the big cities and they prefer that way of life, it's noticeable how former working class communities have moved to smaller towns as they've advanced in social status. The us v them stuff is straight up Rick out the young ones crap

 

[Danny]

TV debates do nothing but spread lies and a false image, you don't get anything from them other than bickering. I still remember the last election where Farage got on it and blamed "healthcare migrants" with AIDS for overloading the NHS, something that was disproved straight away by a British HIV charity, the largest in the country. But people still believed him.

Theyre absolutely pointless and just a popularity contest.

[Honey Honey]

12 hours ago, Fairy In Boots said:

I don't think the Tories are willfully destroying cities out of some sort of tribal calling, what utter gash. 

An IFS study found that local council cuts were disproportionately aimed at Labour areas. Then in last year's emergency funds for councils 83% went to Tory councils. They are total crooks. Remember Surrey council making a behind closed doors deal with the government so they didn't have to put council tax up. This happens whoever is in power.

You've also got the government changing the rules to allow local authorities to keep 100% of business rates, who benefits? The Tory shires. They get a lovely little shield from the axe the austerity mongs are taking. It's all a con to shrink the state, low tax, low welfare, all by the stealth of making the areas you need to vote for you not realise what is happening nationally.

We are on a worrying trajectory in this country towards abandoning the premise of pooling resources to help the poor areas. It's not just the Tory's either, Labour are increasingly cowering and groveling to power hungry greedy cockneys and Scot nats who threaten to dismantle the whole point of being a nation... the pooling of resources.

One of the biggest threats to the North in the next 30 years is going to be London's rich pushing for fiscal powers. People here in the arrogant city of corruption known as London are already starting to question why their taxes have to pay for infrastructure in Grimsby. They want it spent on themselves. Labour aren't even remotely fighting this because they want London MP's. It's the same in Scotland, instead of this is it or independence they pander to them. There is a real threat that the next Labour Westminster government gives Holyrood powers that can be used to mug Northern England off.

These northern poorhouse city mayors are part of a long term plan to shift the UK from resource pooling to "if you are not self sufficient then tough luck". Labour lap it up thinking they're protecting themselves from the Tory's when if the area isn't self sufficient it is going to go into decline or lose significant competitiveness against other cities that are.

Total political botch job going on in every part of this island.

[Danny]

All my family and friends getting annoyed at taxes being spent in other parts of the country...

[Kowabunga]

LOL.