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3 minutes ago, SirBalon said:

There's a lot of hypocrisy flying around at the moment and there's even more stupidity than hypocrisy.  There's only one social class that's going to suffer at the end of this and the rest will either move away or get a backhanded fix.

It's not just personal hypocrisy - the anti-EU, low-regulation, anti-welfare, anti-cosmopolitan side of the debate is winning the propaganda campaign effortlessly.

They're winning over working people with identity politics, suspicion against foreigners, and by painting bourgeois intellectuals as their opppressors, rather than the long-entrenched British upper class who have a stranglehold on the traditional media and on politics. 

People's hate for the EU, academics and for middle-class socialists is very carefully cultivated because it suits people like Lord Rothermere, who come from families that have made fortunes out of manipulating our basest, most negative emotions for generations. 

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21 minutes ago, Inverted said:

It's not just personal hypocrisy - the anti-EU, low-regulation, anti-welfare, anti-cosmopolitan side of the debate is winning the propaganda campaign effortlessly.

They're winning over working people with identity politics, suspicion against foreigners, and by painting bourgeois intellectuals as their opppressors, rather than the long-entrenched British upper class who have a stranglehold on the traditional media and on politics. 

People's hate for the EU, academics and for middle-class socialists is very carefully cultivated because it suits people like Lord Rothermere, who come from families that have made fortunes out of manipulating our basest, most negative emotions for generations. 

I am also culpable of this as I voted out and soon saw the errors I committed to he honest. I wouldn't have voted out now at all although there are many things I continue to dislike about the EU that I maintain. The problem is that now we are totally powerless and the country is going in a direction I am even more against. 

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5 hours ago, SirBalon said:

I am also culpable of this as I voted out and soon saw the errors I committed to he honest. I wouldn't have voted out now at all although there are many things I continue to dislike about the EU that I maintain. The problem is that now we are totally powerless and the country is going in a direction I am even more against. 

We hold huge power at the negotiating table, Europe needs cash. This is probably the most clout we've had in Europe for a long time. 

6 hours ago, Inverted said:

I love how English right-wingers believe it's better to give up some economic stability to regain their pride and sovereignty, but it's not worth an economic risk to restore dignity to the disabled, feed kids and care for the sick. 

Pure ideology.

Most Brexit voters knew it would be short term loss for potential long term gain.

8 hours ago, HoneyNUFC said:

For the last 9 years the conservatives have been telling us we can't afford anything and in 7 years of them in power we've somehow managed to afford a large deficit, tax cuts and added a trillion to the debt.

The Labour plan isn't anywhere near as unaffordable as the Tories claim, they are just reverting back to their old message that they know still sticks.

Oh it is, it's huge borrowing coupled with no control and full on surrender at the negotiating table to Brussels its fucking madness. Ideological it's a lovely idea, in practice it's like getting a wonga loan and not taking steps to ensure you can control repayment's. Uncontrolled immigration and health as well as already showing your hand to Brussels before the negotiations start, your not dumb Harv. Corbyn's a nice principled bloke they get fucked in real life, I have no desire to see us get fucked with him. 

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3 hours ago, Fairy In Boots said:

Most Brexit voters knew it would be short term loss for potential long term gain.

More like the hope of potential long term gain - but there's not a lot of evidence potential for real long term gain. For us to enjoy many of the popular benefits of the EU while not being in the EU, we'll likely be like Norway - subject to EU regulations but having no power to influence them ourselves. The other option is doing a Switzerland - but I don't think the British public is equipped for the amount of referendums held in Switzerland to determine which EU regulations apply & which ones don't, although I say that without any knowledge of the Swiss voters whatsoever. It's one of those options... or we'll see our financial sector (and most of our GDP) decimated.

The only real long-term benefit I see is to be able to unilaterally have trade agreements with the commonwealth tailored for Britain & the commonwealth, rather than the EU and the commonwealth nations. But on the whole, short term loss for long term loss. Especially if we follow in Norway's footsteps, which is the least economically damaging, but the most utterly frustrating way Brexit could turn out. All of that talk about national sovereignty and we'd still be beholden to EU regulations & open borders... with none of the ability to influence any EU policy.

If that happens, Farage should be fucking hung. The dumb cunt bitching about shite EU representation for the UK... while he acted as our representative and thought it was in our best interests to do fuck all on behalf of the UK other than trolling the other MEPs.

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4 hours ago, Fairy In Boots said:

We hold huge power at the negotiating table, Europe needs cash. This is probably the most clout we've had in Europe for a long time. 

May and the extremists have cost us power. The EU had one card, a bastard card, they played it straight away. I'm talking about the the decision to refuse to negotiate a future agreement now. This is going to lead to lost investment and a prolonged squeeze that will put this country at risk on the basis simply of a unnecessary period of uncertainty. The economic downside of Brexit is the period of uncertainty, the actual deal is unlikely to be suicidal, the longer uncertainty goes on the more damage that can be done, the EU knows dragging this out is the only way they can inflict damage on the UK without damaging themselves. 

To not bother with a transitional period is a gamble. Something needs sorting by the end of this year. We can partially trump the card they have played by going transition and I know many in the City are begging the government to do that. 

There is no opposition to May's approach at this general election because the Labour party bullied its Brexiteers to the back or out of the party completely, leaving insincere remainers to fumble around and give inconsistent statements about what should happen. There are also frequent Labour party badge wearers who go around disrespecting and trying to undermine the leave voters which is dumb as fuck when that is the majority of the population. The Lib Dems under Farron decided they would turn themselves into a dicky dance protest party and not a party of opposition, all that has happened is they've replaced a chunk of their usual liberal voters with people who want to block Brexit. Tonight's forecast poll has them on just 6 seats, they'll be hoping the pollsters have a mare again otherwise that is a shockingly bad performance. If it comes true then far right Christian supremacist Tim Farron has absolutely trashed the Lib Dems.

No opposition party tried to marry moderate leavers with moderate remainers which is the majority of the electorate. The limelight was given solely to the sort of people whose opinions and delivery push swing voters into the arms of May.

 

4 hours ago, Fairy In Boots said:

Oh it is, it's huge borrowing coupled with no control and full on surrender at the negotiating table to Brussels its fucking madness. Ideological it's a lovely idea, in practice it's like getting a wonga loan and not taking steps to ensure you can control repayment's. Uncontrolled immigration and health as well as already showing your hand to Brussels before the negotiations start, your not dumb Harv. Corbyn's a nice principled bloke they get fucked in real life, I have no desire to see us get fucked with him. 

Most of what you're saying isn't about the budget. I was just solely referring to increasing spending. The UK had about a £65bn deficit last year and AAA credit rating, there is plenty of room for manoeuvre if we choose to. I'm not saying I agree with the Labour spending plans, I am saying that I don't agree with the general reaction that it isn't affordable. 

I think Labour are useless at putting economic points across. They actually think that just saying "help the vulnerable" is enough, that just saying "anti-austerity" is enough. That might be enough among Guardian readers but this approach is a muddled mix of sentiments, it is missing the actual substance to go with it. It is an absence that makes it look like they are not credible on the economy, that they are putting ideology before evidence. To be quite frank they probably are just leading with ideology. 

With all the radical left leaning economic ideas that are out in the academic world since 2008 I find it unbelievable that this brand of the Labour party ignores them and opts for issuing interest paying bonds to super rich people from all over the planet.

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May is a freedom hater as I have regularly warned on here and the other place from day one of her becoming Prime Minister. Always has been. Lots of freedom hating whilst Home Secretary. Classic conservative, not the libertarian branch.

 

Elsewhere I'm slightly confused by the Labour and SNP attacks on the Tory plans to scrap the winter fuel allowance for pensioners whose pension pays them more than £45k a year. 

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Have been impressed by Corbyn so far while May is coming across as an absolute robot and looks terrified in almost every picture I've seen of her on the campaign trail. Literally the least charismatic 'leader' I've ever seen and I'm just about old enough to remember Gordon Brown.

All parties and the media coverage of the election is absolute shite as always, all of them as bad as each other, papers spouting bollocks about whichever party they don't like, and as always Labour and Conservatives spending 95% of their time bashing each other and the rest actually putting themselves forward as capable of running the country. Nobody will hold the politicians or media to account for not actually doing their job and educating the public on what they're voting for so this process will be as much of a nonsense as the Brexit vote. We've got to be one of the least educated voting public in the Western world.

I like Labour's manifesto, I'd be voting for them anyway as it's a complete no brainer for me as a teacher. May's manifesto is better than most Conservative-wise, but how many promises will either of them actually keep? The way the £X billion that was promised to the NHS was pulled the day after the Brexit referendum with absolutely no consequences for the politicians in question just underlines that they can pretty much promise what they want and not deliver it without being held accountable.

Politics is dick.

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23 minutes ago, adziom said:

Have been impressed by Corbyn so far while May is coming across as an absolute robot and looks terrified in almost every picture I've seen of her on the campaign trail. Literally the least charismatic 'leader' I've ever seen and I'm just about old enough to remember Gordon Brown.

All parties and the media coverage of the election is absolute shite as always, all of them as bad as each other, papers spouting bollocks about whichever party they don't like, and as always Labour and Conservatives spending 95% of their time bashing each other and the rest actually putting themselves forward as capable of running the country. Nobody will hold the politicians or media to account for not actually doing their job and educating the public on what they're voting for so this process will be as much of a nonsense as the Brexit vote. We've got to be one of the least educated voting public in the Western world.

I like Labour's manifesto, I'd be voting for them anyway as it's a complete no brainer for me as a teacher. May's manifesto is better than most Conservative-wise, but how many promises will either of them actually keep? The way the £X billion that was promised to the NHS was pulled the day after the Brexit referendum with absolutely no consequences for the politicians in question just underlines that they can pretty much promise what they want and not deliver it without being held accountable.

Politics is dick.

Obligatory: It wasn't a promise, it didn't say all of that money would go to the NHS and, even if they were promising that, they were in no position to do so.

That said, you're right. Every election we obsess over the manifestos and every time we're dismayed months later when promises are broken. You can usually believe the big vanity projects in them, because they're the leaders' core aims, but I can't get my head around why people still treat every word as gospel. I think it's far better to judge parties on their records in government and/or the voting records of their leadership.

 

 

There's no party I can vote for this time around. I'm loosely conservative, but as Harvey keeps saying, May hates freedom, so I won't be voting for her. The Lib Dems are probably the least bad, although they've got some big promises I profoundly disagree with, like extending the franchise to 16 year-olds. If I've got nothing else on that day, I'll think of an imaginative way to spoil my ballot, but I'm just as likely to not cast one at all.

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2 minutes ago, Burning Gold said:

Obligatory: It wasn't a promise, it didn't say all of that money would go to the NHS and, even if they were promising that, they were in no position to do so.

That said, you're right. Every election we obsess over the manifestos and every time we're dismayed months later when promises are broken. You can usually believe the big vanity projects in them, because they're the leaders' core aims, but I can't get my head around why people still treat every word as gospel. I think it's far better to judge parties on their records in government and/or the voting records of their leadership.

 

 

There's no party I can vote for this time around. I'm loosely conservative, but as Harvey keeps saying, May hates freedom, so I won't be voting for her. The Lib Dems are probably the least bad, although they've got some big promises I profoundly disagree with, like extending the franchise to 16 year-olds. If I've got nothing else on that day, I'll think of an imaginative way to spoil my ballot, but I'm just as likely to not cast one at all.

I understand what you're saying - perhaps it wasn't a 'promise' but I think the suggestion that some of this money we're saving could go to the NHS was highly influential in the way a lot of people voted.

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5 minutes ago, adziom said:

I understand what you're saying - perhaps it wasn't a 'promise' but I think the suggestion that some of this money we're saving could go to the NHS was highly influential in the way a lot of people voted.

Yeah, I don't doubt that for a second. It was a clever slogan, but then it's hardly a new strategy to weaponise the NHS to win votes.

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If it mattered so much then having been exposed as a lie it would show up in the polling. Why would someone who was lied to still say they'd vote the same if it truly mattered? Voters should have swung away from Brexit in the post ref polls but they didn't. It probably didnt happen because the bus is one of those arbitrary political points where if your side says it you adopt it and if it is exposed you ignore it. 

I think the lib dems banging on about the bus (particularly a year later) has and will only act to insult a large chunk of the electorate.

We are getting a Tory Brexit because of things like this. Though primarily it is because of how unruly the Labour party have been. Lib Dems aren't polling very well, it looks like the could lose seats unless the pollsters have another mare.

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39 minutes ago, HoneyNUFC said:

If it mattered so much then having been exposed as a lie it would show up in the polling. Why would someone who was lied to still say they'd vote the same if it truly mattered? Voters should have swung away from Brexit in the post ref polls but they didn't. It probably didnt happen because the bus is one of those arbitrary political points where if your side says it you adopt it and if it is exposed you ignore it. 

I think the lib dems banging on about the bus (particularly a year later) has and will only act to insult a large chunk of the electorate.

We are getting a Tory Brexit because of things like this. Though primarily it is because of how unruly the Labour party have been. Lib Dems aren't polling very well, it looks like the could lose seats unless the pollsters have another mare.

I'm not arguing with you here because I am absolutely naive on this, but how many people actually take a poll after the referendum to say what they would have voted now? Don't see why people would bother as it's a pretty pointless exercise, however I have no idea how many people would take this poll so I could be completely wrong.

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A two party poll isn't the one to look for in terms of whether people care about broken promises. More the favorable/unfabourable or approval ratings. 

If Labour are genuinely perceived as unelectable in the eyes of the majority like this site and others seem to suggest then misled Tory voters have no choice but to be pissed off yet still voting conservative. 

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That explains remain Tory's still voting Tory in a way, but it doesn't explain pissed leave voters. Its not party polls you should see that in, if they are pissed it would show up in referendum re-run polls and was it the right decision polls which take place on a weekly basis. It hasn't had any baring on them so its significance is nowhere near as large as made out. 

Polling companies ring up tens of thousands of people a month from a cross section of society or use online panel companies to ask how people would vote if it happened again and other general attitude questions. Its not sticking up a poll on a forum or newspaper and no one taking it. The sample sizes are there and the data is cut to be reasonbly accurate reflections of society give or take a little.

Pre-vote the bus had deluded some leave voters and they were running with its narrative despite the £350m number being proven wrong before the vote. Post-vote the bus false narrative is now firmly on the remain side. Particularly the lib dems and the people who took to the streets saying the result was the product of lies. 

The data supports neither.

 

Immigration has had a big baring on 2010, 2015, 2016 and what will be 2017. Never mind Jeremy, Labour weren't on the winning side in any of the previous elections. Labour eating itself will increase the Tory majority but even  if it wasn't Jez in charge they wouldn't win this election. There isn't going to be a proper powerful Blair like majority left wing government until immigration stops pulling swing voters away from the left. As soon as a controlled system is brought in the only way is down for the conservative party.

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I live in a rock solid safe Labour seat, Leeds Central, where they could put up a donkey as a candidate and still win.

If you live in a safe seat especially, first past the post is such an awful electoral system with a lot of wasted votes. That was why the referendum last year, even though I hated the final outcome of it, was refreshing from a democratic point of view with every vote counting. I will still vote though, as I do in every election, but it still feels like a waste of time. 

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4 hours ago, Hugh Jass said:

I live in a rock solid safe Labour seat, Leeds Central, where they could put up a donkey as a candidate and still win.

If you live in a safe seat especially, first past the post is such an awful electoral system with a lot of wasted votes. That was why the referendum last year, even though I hated the final outcome of it, was refreshing from a democratic point of view with every vote counting. I will still vote though, as I do in every election, but it still feels like a waste of time. 

This is true, first past the post is stupid and while I don't support UKIP in any shape or form the fact that they got 10% of votes in the last general election and ended up with no (or 1 or 2?) seats is flat out wrong.

The system benefits the two main parties though so it will never change.

For that, I admire the French in that they can have people from brand new parties competing to become leaders of the country within a year...

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It is primarily a matter of whether you believe a coalition should be on the inside of a party or on the outside between parties. If you want to be a badge wearing political philosopher then Proportionate Representation is what you'll want. If you want to vote in a glorified opinion poll on how things are being ran then FPTP is what you'll want.

First past the post gives the chance to vote for a coalition whose outcome you can see upfront (as in the coalition is inside the Labour party, inside the Conservative party and you already know what they've agreed upon). Proportionate Representation leads to the coalition coming after the vote, you don't know what the person you voted for will give away in negotiations (e.g. Lib Dems and the NHS, tuition fees etc when we had a rare coalition moment). 

A safe seat vote is weakened by postcode lottery but it doesn't have to be wasted. Any vote for a party other than Labour and the Conservatives indicates you are not pleased with the coalition they have come up, so try again because of X subject. UKIP didn't need to win any seats to change this country, they will now be wiped out at this election, purpose served, message received. If Labour lose votes to the Green's then Labour will start proposing more Green policies. 

I worry that proportional representation allows a government to continuously ignore people in a way that ends up pushing them towards extremes like Geert Wilders and Marine Le Pen in substantially larger numbers than we see via FPTP in this country. In times of economic uncertainty you start getting erratic waves of movements based on fashion and not consideration for the wider community. You get more polarisation, you get more communists. 

I would much rather see a reform of what we've got to try and stem the tide of exploitation which comes with the absence of an external coalition. Starting with legally binding manifesto's.

 

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On 17/05/2017 at 11:36 PM, Dr. Gonzo said:

More like the hope of potential long term gain - but there's not a lot of evidence potential for real long term gain. For us to enjoy many of the popular benefits of the EU while not being in the EU, we'll likely be like Norway - subject to EU regulations but having no power to influence them ourselves. The other option is doing a Switzerland - but I don't think the British public is equipped for the amount of referendums held in Switzerland to determine which EU regulations apply & which ones don't, although I say that without any knowledge of the Swiss voters whatsoever. It's one of those options... or we'll see our financial sector (and most of our GDP) decimated.

The only real long-term benefit I see is to be able to unilaterally have trade agreements with the commonwealth tailored for Britain & the commonwealth, rather than the EU and the commonwealth nations. But on the whole, short term loss for long term loss. Especially if we follow in Norway's footsteps, which is the least economically damaging, but the most utterly frustrating way Brexit could turn out. All of that talk about national sovereignty and we'd still be beholden to EU regulations & open borders... with none of the ability to influence any EU policy.

If that happens, Farage should be fucking hung. The dumb cunt bitching about shite EU representation for the UK... while he acted as our representative and thought it was in our best interests to do fuck all on behalf of the UK other than trolling the other MEPs.

Like what a huge trade deficit? We don't need the EU market half as much as we need the others, the world has changed. 

On 18/05/2017 at 0:01 AM, HoneyNUFC said:

May and the extremists have cost us power. The EU had one card, a bastard card, they played it straight away. I'm talking about the the decision to refuse to negotiate a future agreement now. This is going to lead to lost investment and a prolonged squeeze that will put this country at risk on the basis simply of a unnecessary period of uncertainty. The economic downside of Brexit is the period of uncertainty, the actual deal is unlikely to be suicidal, the longer uncertainty goes on the more damage that can be done, the EU knows dragging this out is the only way they can inflict damage on the UK without damaging themselves. 

To not bother with a transitional period is a gamble. Something needs sorting by the end of this year. We can partially trump the card they have played by going transition and I know many in the City are begging the government to do that. 

There is no opposition to May's approach at this general election because the Labour party bullied its Brexiteers to the back or out of the party completely, leaving insincere remainers to fumble around and give inconsistent statements about what should happen. There are also frequent Labour party badge wearers who go around disrespecting and trying to undermine the leave voters which is dumb as fuck when that is the majority of the population. The Lib Dems under Farron decided they would turn themselves into a dicky dance protest party and not a party of opposition, all that has happened is they've replaced a chunk of their usual liberal voters with people who want to block Brexit. Tonight's forecast poll has them on just 6 seats, they'll be hoping the pollsters have a mare again otherwise that is a shockingly bad performance. If it comes true then far right Christian supremacist Tim Farron has absolutely trashed the Lib Dems.

No opposition party tried to marry moderate leavers with moderate remainers which is the majority of the electorate. The limelight was given solely to the sort of people whose opinions and delivery push swing voters into the arms of May.

 

Most of what you're saying isn't about the budget. I was just solely referring to increasing spending. The UK had about a £65bn deficit last year and AAA credit rating, there is plenty of room for manoeuvre if we choose to. I'm not saying I agree with the Labour spending plans, I am saying that I don't agree with the general reaction that it isn't affordable. 

I think Labour are useless at putting economic points across. They actually think that just saying "help the vulnerable" is enough, that just saying "anti-austerity" is enough. That might be enough among Guardian readers but this approach is a muddled mix of sentiments, it is missing the actual substance to go with it. It is an absence that makes it look like they are not credible on the economy, that they are putting ideology before evidence. To be quite frank they probably are just leading with ideology. 

With all the radical left leaning economic ideas that are out in the academic world since 2008 I find it unbelievable that this brand of the Labour party ignores them and opts for issuing interest paying bonds to super rich people from all over the planet.

Because of election's in Europe negotiations wouldn't have really began until October after the German and French elections had taken place. 

Agree on Farron 😂

Labour are a mess not just when they stand there twitching about Tory winter fuel policy, they've just given a mixed message on Tridemt. It just suggests what we already know Corbyn either can't control or is utterly incapable of managing his party. 

 

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On 5/20/2017 at 0:22 PM, Fairy In Boots said:

Like what a huge trade deficit? We don't need the EU market half as much as we need the others, the world has changed. 

 

If only economics were as simple as trade deficit = bad (nor are trade deficits a sign of economic weakness necessarily). And I thought Brexit was about our sovereignty... but unless we're going to have a major exonlmic crash with no plan for it aren't we going to cede control to some EU regulations without having any ability to control those regulations.

The fact we have no real choice this election is disheartening. It seems as I get older the politicians get worse. I hate Theresa May and her nanny state bullshit, but labour has been fucking in the looney bin for a while & lib dems will probably never recover from getting in bed with Cameron.

Having faith in any of these parties to lead us through Brexit is mental.

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1 hour ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

If only economics were as simple as trade deficit = bad (nor are trade deficits a sign of economic weakness necessarily). And I thought Brexit was about our sovereignty... but unless we're going to have a major exonlmic crash with no plan for it aren't we going to cede control to some EU regulations without having any ability to control those regulations.

The fact we have no real choice this election is disheartening. It seems as I get older the politicians get worse. I hate Theresa May and her nanny state bullshit, but labour has been fucking in the looney bin for a while & lib dems will probably never recover from getting in bed with Cameron.

Having faith in any of these parties to lead us through Brexit is mental.

The EU is so much more than a trade deficit but i didn't want to go wildly off topic. Brexit is about our sovereignty but as with all politics one issue impacts another.

I watched the above last night and it probably does a better explanation of what's wrong with Europe than anything I ever could, I just get all shouty like Farage.

We will get a decent selection domestically down the track, I personally don't like May nor do I trust her but she's the only Brexit option now and sadly i think it will be medium Brexit (not Hard which is what I want, insert joke here)I'll vote for her but I'm 50/50 on not bothering. Corbyn is an idiot and his party are indeed morons, but if he gets slaughtered at least we'll get a real opposition, May won't fight another she's not election winning material in normal circumstances.

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The conservative implosion is well under way, given how nailed on they were to win considering the limpness of Labour, they've really had a complete mare with the dementia tax debacle 

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They've been like this since winning in 2015. Regularly u-turning after putting forward car crash policies that are badly thought out. It's quite something that they keep doing it.

Corbyn giving gifts to the Tory media over the IRA though. Remarkable that someone can be so blind.

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1 hour ago, Batard said:

The conservative implosion is well under way, given how nailed on they were to win considering the limpness of Labour, they've really had a complete mare with the dementia tax debacle 

To be fair I thought taxing self employed and this are two of her better policies, both are problems that need long term solutions. I own a home,  I know now I won't inherit my old girls place unless she lives to a ripe old age and dies in her sleep with all her faculties. I know full well sadly the chances are she'll get dementia need 24/7 care which I won't have the ability to provide or fund and her house will go on funding that. My father in law has a mom full blown dementia she's already eaten up the value of her house and he's doing 6 days a week at 62 to pay for her care. I actually think protecting 100k is harsh but fair it allows people who've blatantly lost the ability to do so to leave something for their loved ones. I want to buy a second home specifically to leave to my kids because I know if me & the Mrs get ill the rising cost of care will wipe out our estate. It's harsh but fair and it's the only attempt to tackle the growing problem I've seen. Stupid to put it in a manifesto though unless she's doing it to circumvent the House of Lords. It's the creeping soft Brexit I don't like her for, I'll vote for her because Corbyn will very likely put us back a decades if he gets in. He's got no immigration policy and just wants to nationalise everything. As Harv said he's intelligent without sense that's more dangerous than a Tory trying to be a socialist in my opinion. 

 

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