American Politics Discussion

[RandoEFC+]

Biden is favourite now in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia and Arizona. Winning all of those would leave him on 306 electoral college votes, a victory of 306-234. Fairly convincing at the end and not leaving Trump much of a leg to stand on. On one hand I want to see it finish, on the other I want it to be stretched out as long as possible to see how far Trump's twitter feed descends further into madness.

[Stan]

Nevada is pretty much his given they're now just counting the blue counties. 

Apparently only 50,000 votes left to count in Georgia with about 15,000 votes in it? 

[RandoEFC+]

Pennsylvania - 550k ballots left, pretty much all mail-in votes where Biden has been taking 70-80% of the votes. Means that Biden will probably beat Trump by 300k or so over the course of these votes. Trump's lead is only just over 100k. Pennsylvania alone is enough to finish the job.

Georgia - 50k ballots left, again pretty much all mail-in votes. Biden needs to win about 65% of them. He has been winning about 70-75% of them so far. Biden looks likely to overtake and win the state by the slimmest of margins.

Nevada - about 50k ballots left, Biden's lead is slim here but the remaining votes are absentee (mail-in) votes and mostly in Clark County which is heavily Democratic. Also bear in mind that the mail-in demographic are likely to make it more blue still, so he should be fine. Although in Nevada they think the mail-in votes won't be quite so dominantly Democrat than other states.

Arizona - I'm not really across the detail here. Most people seem to think Biden will survive but some of the mail-in votes favour Trump. Probably not by enough for him to catch up but he might.

Alaska and the second district in Maine will be called for Trump at some point and the probability of North Carolina also staying red is very high but not certain.

[6666]

I don't think the electoral college is actually that bad of an idea.... what needs to change though is the share of seats a candidate gets from a state should be determined by the share of the votes they got in that state rather than getting all of the seats for winning by 2% or so.

[Bluewolf]

4 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Nevada is where Las Vegas is. Why the fuck are they so slow at counting?

[Dr. Gonzo]

Every time I check, Georgia gets closer and closer.

[Burning Gold]

Nevada's state senate actually passed a bill that would award all of the state's electoral college votes to the winner of the popular vote, only to see it vetoed by the governor. They could've avoided all this

[Stan]

9 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Every time I check, Georgia gets closer and closer.

What site do you use to check the voting figures?

[Dr. Gonzo]

Just now, Stan said:

What site do you use to check the voting figures?

I've just been googling "US Election" and it's got a pretty good thing keeping track. But New York Times has a slightly different one that's been free (at least in the US) for people without subscriptions. I've been flipping between both.

It's important to note though, Google is using Associated Press for it's results - Associated Press & Fox called Arizona for Biden on day one - even though it's pretty tight in Arizona. Most of the media in the US (other than Fox news) is using a hybrid of AP & Edison Research (which hasn't called Arizona yet) - so if you go to New York Times or Washington Post.

If we go with AP though, Nevada would be enough to decide it for Biden. But it's looking unlikely that we'll get the final results from Nevada today (although Biden widened the slight gap... a bit).

[Stan]

6 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I've just been googling "US Election" and it's got a pretty good thing keeping track. But New York Times has a slightly different one that's been free (at least in the US) for people without subscriptions. I've been flipping between both.

It's important to note though, Google is using Associated Press for it's results - Associated Press & Fox called Arizona for Biden on day one - even though it's pretty tight in Arizona. Most of the media in the US (other than Fox news) is using a hybrid of AP & Edison Research (which hasn't called Arizona yet) - so if you go to New York Times or Washington Post.

If we go with AP though, Nevada would be enough to decide it for Biden. But it's looking unlikely that we'll get the final results from Nevada today (although Biden widened the slight gap... a bit).

Cheers. I'll stick with BBC as they're using the AP & Edison Research as well albeit not including the projected results even if it is pretty much nailed on either way.

[MUFC]

Trump just wants to save face with all this court nonsense going on because he can't accept a loss. He's always believed he's a winner. I think once the dust settles, Donny Trump is going to wake up each morning, go to the bathroom, look in the mirror and see a loser. It will hurt, especially knowing he lost to a shot-to-shit, over-the-hill, crap-in-his-prime-anyway ''sleepy'' Joe Biden.

[RandoEFC+]

39 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Every time I check, Georgia gets closer and closer.

#COYB

[Bluewolf]

Crazy to think we are all pinning our hopes on a bloke with senile dementia.... 

[Bluewolf]

[Burning Gold]

It's going to be so close in Georgia. Trump leads by ~12,000 with just under 48,000 left to count. If my maths is correct, that means Biden needs to win about two-thirds of the remaining votes to take it. I know postal votes lean Democrat, but that seems a lot to me in a state as close as that

[Harry]

6 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

As an English in America, all I can really say is both US and UK politics depress the shit out of me.

Murdoch is the common denominator. 1. Using biased and poor quality newsmedia to erode impressionable minds instead or expanding them. 

2. Fomenting a solid audiencew who are so poisoned in their views of the left that they will never switch sides

3. Getting the politicians to then do whatever he wants them to

[Bluewolf]

The way they do it in Russia is so much more efficient than the US.. Over there they normally get the result before the polls are even open... 

Edited November 5, 2020 by Bluewolf

[Harry]

6 hours ago, Eco said:

I'm not sure, but it has never made a lick of since to me. If we went to popular vote though, Trump would have never been elected...

Biden likely to win the popular vote by more than 4% to win a nail-biter election. 

In Australia that would be an enormous victory and result in a very lopsided house of representatives

Every future Democrat will need to do the same if they're to win.

However the bigger obstacle is the rural bias in the senate. Two senators each for California and Wyoming, etc. A higher qty conservative states than liberal ones add up to push the median elected senator to being a fair bit more conservative than the average American. Only real way to fix that is to balance it a little better by making DC and Puerto Rico official US states. 

[RandoEFC+]

13 minutes ago, Burning Gold said:

It's going to be so close in Georgia. Trump leads by ~12,000 with just under 48,000 left to count. If my maths is correct, that means Biden needs to win about two-thirds of the remaining votes to take it. I know postal votes lean Democrat, but that seems a lot to me in a state as close as that

It's going to be close but a while ago they said he needed 68-70% and he's been achieving more than that on the mail in ballots, which is why he now needs more like 64% of what's left. 

[Carnivore Chris]

I hope Trump wins.

1. Because it rattles people who care far more than they should about issues that occur in a country that is 1,000s of miles away. One which don't give two fucks about anyone else at that.

2. If we are honest, all American presidents are clowns(just like all ours are toff gimps) full stop. The US presidential election is aload of over dramatised, hyped up, wwe-like nonsense where it becomes a competition in who can make the biggest clown out of themselves. Trump surely makes a clown of himself and that makes him the perfect fit for that country.

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

4 minutes ago, Carnivore Chris said:

I hope Trump wins.

1. Because it rattles people who care far more than they should about issues that occur in a country that is 1,000s of miles away. One which don't give two fucks about anyone else at that.

2. If we are honest, all American presidents are clowns(just like all ours are toff gimps) full stop. The US presidential election is aload of over dramatised, hyped up, wwe-like nonsense where it becomes a competition in who can make the biggest clown out of themselves. Trump surely makes a clown of himself and that makes him the perfect fit for that country.

 

#1 is a bit fucked up. All of my family in Iran are probably more impacted by who is the US President than most actual Americans. Americans might not realise the scope of their vote (sadly), but they're a super power so who their leader is makes a big difference to the rest of the world.

The sentiment from #2 is all fine and dandy, until you consider the arsehole's going to be demanding we accept meat that would be considered substandard in the UK currently in any trade deal and are wanting to NHS in jeopardy over a future trade deal.

I think there's a question on whether America deserves to be as important as it is to the global economy based off the views of their voters... but there's no question this decision is going to make a huge impact on a lot of people around the world outside the US. Arguably, a bigger impact than it will for a ton of people living in the US.

[Stan]

26 minutes ago, Bluewolf said:

The way they do it in Russia is so much more efficient than the US.. Over there they normally get the result before the polls are even open... 

And North Korea where they don't even need polls! (or Poles if you're Donald) 

[Stan]

20 minutes ago, Carnivore Chris said:

I hope Trump wins.

1. Because it rattles people who care far more than they should about issues that occur in a country that is 1,000s of miles away. One which don't give two fucks about anyone else at that.

2. If we are honest, all American presidents are clowns(just like all ours are toff gimps) full stop. The US presidential election is aload of over dramatised, hyped up, wwe-like nonsense where it becomes a competition in who can make the biggest clown out of themselves. Trump surely makes a clown of himself and that makes him the perfect fit for that country.

 

They might not give a fuck about us but the person in charge of such a huge country clearly does have an effect on what happens around the world. So it might rattle people purely because of the effect it has globally on individuals. A lot of people don't feel safe travelling to Trump's America because of the environment and stigma he created and the fires he fuelled. Can you blame them (well, you might but you get what I mean). 

A President like him regresses a country. Sets them back several years, if not decades. Like how government here does. 

It's a weird logic to want Trump to win for those reasons. 

[RandoEFC+]

25 minutes ago, Carnivore Chris said:

I hope Trump wins.

1. Because it rattles people who care far more than they should about issues that occur in a country that is 1,000s of miles away. One which don't give two fucks about anyone else at that.

2. If we are honest, all American presidents are clowns(just like all ours are toff gimps) full stop. The US presidential election is aload of over dramatised, hyped up, wwe-like nonsense where it becomes a competition in who can make the biggest clown out of themselves. Trump surely makes a clown of himself and that makes him the perfect fit for that country.

 

If that's your stance then fair enough but wanting people to win based on it annoying other people rather than how it might impact on millions of peoples' lives regardless of where they are geographically doesn't sit well with me. This combined with the rejection of nuance, most commonly "who cares, all politicians are liars anyway", are two of the things which pave the way to success for populist movements too.

I get the disinterest but I can't agree with wanting Trump to win just to wind people up. I've described earlier in the thread my first-hand experience of how having a charlatan like him holding such a reputable office has a ripple effect even in classrooms in England and the Isle of Man.

[Harry]

44 minutes ago, Carnivore Chris said:

I hope Trump wins.

1. Because it rattles people who care far more than they should about issues that occur in a country that is 1,000s of miles away. One which don't give two fucks about anyone else at that.

I disagree with this. The US has left the table on climate change, global trade, world health and many other matters. That has significant effects on many countries.

Australia is currently getting slayed by China in trade. They have banned imports of our beef, and thermal coal, and now wine, largely for our standing by our alliance with America, and America is an empty chair at the WTO right now.

Then there's the influence of the role of the US president. Obama was a worthy role model. Trump is the antithesis of that. The influence this has on people spouting absolute shite is enormous. The lessons of trumps success are very damaging to the motivation of those who strive to do good work and believe that facts matter, and that experts should not be dismissed out of hand with an eye roll. The world's most powerful democracy is failing right now and that is significant and alarming.