Russia and Ukraine

[Waylander]

I picked this up from a US forum I visit, not saying it is true just a perspective from the Russian POV, I think the split going forward is probably how it is going to play out, unfortunately.

The Ukrainians also have a sad and grim future until the dust settles and probably forced to stay within the Russian sphere.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/03/disarming-ukraine-day-7.html#more

Mark Sleboda has served as nuclear engineer in the U.S. Navy. He has studied at the London School of Economics. He has married a woman from Crimea and now lives in Moscow as a Russian citizen. He is a frequent commentator in Russian media. Sleboda has previously criticized president Putin for being too soft with the 'west'.

His analyses and predictions are more dire than mine but he is probably right (thread edited for readability):

Mark Sleboda @MarkSleboda1 - 8:53 UTC · Mar 2, 2022

This is #theGreatDecoupling between the West and Russia. Economic linkages will be cut down to only energy and a few other commodities & chemicals that Europe is dependent on Russia for. The West controls and has weaponized their entire economy in their war to break Russia. 

Political, social and cultural linkages will also be severed to a high degree. Weaning Russia off this dependence will be hard and immiserating. But with Chinese and some other Eurasian support, Russia may just weather it. The entire global economy will suffer as well.

But once the dust has settled and new domestic and import substitution formed - Russia will at least be economically & financially independent from the West. They will never again be able to weaponize their economic hegemony to coerce, blackmail, or wage war on Russia.

The same weaponized economic war too will also soon be turned on China and the Rest of the world's holdouts from US-led Western Hegemony. The Unipolar world will truly be over, but the Multipolar world will be stillborn by US attempts to hang on to their hegemony. Instead US/Western pressure will directly result in the formation of an anti-Western bloc led by China and Russia for survival and independence. Neutrality will be difficult to maintain. A new Bipolar world is coming into being, just decades after the last ended.

The Golden Age of the Global Internet is also now over resulting not from Russia closing itself off, but by censorship and exclusion by Western and the social media platforms and the internet fixtures they control - because they don't trust their own people to hear alternative perspectives and narratives and judge on their own. The world's internet will now break down into regional spheres with limited connectivity. It will be a new, much smaller, less connected, more localized and divisive world.

We are of course already seeing the physical connections around the world break down - with closures of entire swathes of the globe's surface to each others' airlines and global shipping connections being severed one by one as we speak. Global distribution networks will be disrupted & chaos result for months. Because Russia & Ukraine are primary sources of so many of the world's commodities - energy & food costs around the world will skyrocket. In the First world prices will go up, in the Third - starvation.

Ultimately the cause was the US-led West trying to maintain and extend their Hegemony, while they can and Russia resisting it. NATO expansion east in waves, US meddling and hybrid warfare to bring into power pro-Western/anti-Russian governments in formerly neutral, unaligned, national identity-divided post Soviet states was the endgame of this NATO expansion to geopolitically consolidate all of Europe under US-led Western Hegemony up to Russia's borders.

Russia resisted this geopolitical flipping by color revolution in Georgia, Belarus & Ukraine. And now the ultimate target of this economic war on Russia is forcing regime change in Russia itself for having the temerity to resist the Hegemon's geopolitical expansion right on her very borders.

The great Realist IR scholar Mearsheimer foresaw all of this. As did Kissinger, George Kennan, US Ambassador John Matlock and many others. They tried to warn what the consequences of the US trying to geopolitically flip Ukraine would be, but to no avail.

For Russia the only path forward, the goal to survive is, must be - separation, autarky (self-sufficiency), 

[6666]

11 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/03/2/7327539/

Dunno how good of a source Pravda is - looks like it's currently owned by the Communist Party of the Russian Federation which makes me feel like this: 

But according to this report, "Ukraine has seized Russian military plans concerning the war against Ukraine from the 810th Brigade of the battalion tactical group of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet Marines. These documents were approved on 18 January."

These plans indicate that the war is (or was) meant to last just 15 days and they anticipated they'd have control of Ukraine by now. I think considering the slow progress the Russian army has made, with the high casualties due to Ukraine's stronger than anticipated resistance to invasion... coupled with the western backing Ukraine will be receiving for the entirety of the conflict & the implosion of Russia's economy post-invasion... there's no way this war just lasts 15 days unless Putin gives the order to pack it all in.

Putin is nearly into his 70s. I can see him being reluctant to retreat and just might escalate things even further and go nuclear.

[Waylander]

Boris was questioned today by a Ukrainian women clearly upset saying her country had been betrayed and should have been supported with Western armies and instead asked for a no-fly zone.

Boris although frequently coming across as bumbling clown actually came out with something I have recently read,  he said we could not enforce a no-fly zone against a nuclear power like Russia as the risk of serious conflict was just too high.

Of course little comfort for the woman yet explains why the West largely stays out of Syrian airspace.

[RandoEFC+]

The more this goes on and the more I read about it, the more I believe in the theory that Putin has thrown rational thought out of the window and just pursued what his ego and 'Mother Russia' worldview demands. We talk about him as if he's some invincible mastermind, but he's only a man. It's hard to see how the decision to pursue this war is supposed to actually help him. All he's achieved is isolation internationally and a loss of many the benefits that keep his oligarchs happy, with no evidence of it boosting his domestic support. Instead the Russian people now face the consequences of economic hardship, lifestyle benefits like Western social media and sport, not to mention the much less trivial loss of thousands of lives already. All he gets out of this invasion is scratching the itch he's always had about Ukraine.

Don't see how this ends well for him in any way. If it does spell the eventual end for him, Russia can choose between a new leader who is willing to disown Putin and rebuild bridges with Europe, or continuing down the path of total isolation that Putin has set them off on, and hope that China are willing to make themselves an ally to help ensure that the economic hardships are at least only temporary.

[Dr. Gonzo]

4 minutes ago, 6666 said:

Putin is nearly into his 70s. I can see him being reluctant to retreat and just might escalate things even further and go nuclear.

I can see him being reluctant to retreat as well. I don't think he's got an exit strategy if the war didn't pan out the way he was wanting to.

He can't really retreat and claim a victory for Russians back home. And a sudden end to the war doesn't really do much to remove the sanctions imposed on Russia either - I think much of these sanctions that are going to cause internal pressure on him are probably going to last until he's no longer in power.

Imo, sanctions don't really work at forcing citizens to rebel against their government. If we look at the most sanctioned nations on the planet: Cuba and Iran, they've just been cut off from being normal participants in the global economy and their respective governments have responded by just being incredibly brutal towards protestors. I think there's a big misconception that sanctions work well against autocrats because sooner or later they'll have to answer to their own people... but in the west we often forget that in these types of governments ordinary people are the biggest victims of their government.

But putting faith in Putin to put the interests of ordinary Russians over his own interests I think is really misguided.

And people do hope that causing billionaire oligarchs having their net worth crumble each day that passes will lead them to turn on Putin... but I think it's been shown that Putin's sort of isolated his government from many of the oligarchs that had sway over him before by targeting the oligarchs that don't stay quiet.

Being a strongman dictator means if he's to retreat, he needs to be able to claim some sort of victory to save face among his domestic supporters. At this point, I just don't see any reasonable exit for him. Either Ukraine falls, and then he's got a lengthy and costly occupation to handle... or this war keeps escalating. I know I'm not a foreign policy expert, or especially an expert on Russian culture, but I just can't see a reasonable path to peace from Putin's perspective.

[Dr. Gonzo]

10 minutes ago, Waylander said:

Boris was questioned today by a Ukrainian women clearly upset saying her country had been betrayed and should have been supported with Western armies and instead asked for a no-fly zone.

Boris although frequently coming across as bumbling clown actually came out with something I have recently read,  he said we could not enforce a no-fly zone against a nuclear power like Russia as the risk of serious conflict was just too high.

Of course little comfort for the woman yet explains why the West largely stays out of Syrian airspace.

The calls for any NATO country to enforce a no-fly zone are insane. The implication of taking on Russian aircraft and AA in the area to establish a no-fly zone means another world war, there's no way of avoiding that. And in 2022 that likely means nuclear weapons flying all around the world.

I feel for this woman and every Ukrainian that's impacted by this war (so likely, every Ukrainian), but we don't need to test out the theory of mutually assured destruction at any point in our history.

Although a part of me finds it amusing that the US and UK were very quick to invade Iraq on the pretext that Iraq had WMDs... but they absolutely won't risk openly getting into conflict with Russia because we all know Russia has WMDs.

[Waylander]

29 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

The calls for any NATO country to enforce a no-fly zone are insane. The implication of taking on Russian aircraft and AA in the area to establish a no-fly zone means another world war, there's no way of avoiding that. And in 2022 that likely means nuclear weapons flying all around the world.

I feel for this woman and every Ukrainian that's impacted by this war (so likely, every Ukrainian), but we don't need to test out the theory of mutually assured destruction at any point in our history.

Although a part of me finds it amusing that the US and UK were very quick to invade Iraq on the pretext that Iraq had WMDs... but they absolutely won't risk openly getting into conflict with Russia because we all know Russia has WMDs.

Agree totally.

[Dr. Gonzo]

sounds pretty grim

[OrangeKhrush]

I think we are going to be led down the rabbit hole again.

[nudge]

7 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/03/2/7327539/

Dunno how good of a source Pravda is - looks like it's currently owned by the Communist Party of the Russian Federation which makes me feel like this: 

You're thinking of the wrong Pravda  The original Russian Pravda is indeed owned by the Communist Party in Russia. The website you linked to is Ukrayinska Pravda though, which has nothing to do with the Russian publication. Quite on the contrary - the Ukrainian Pravda is known for it's criticial and investigative journalism as well as promotion of democracy and freedom of the press. It's original founder was murdered by Ukrainian security service after exposing high-level corruption in the government.

[OrangeKhrush]

I'm prepared to accept that beyond the western media gaslighting and white knighting of the matter, that th ere are things that go well bellow the surface that nobody knows or understands.

the holistic view is that it is wrong but it always takes two to tango

[Azeem]

Lmao 

[Fairy In Boots]

On 26/02/2022 at 23:54, Machado said:

I disagree. Unfortunately Ukraine needed NATO sooner or later. The fact that the Ukrainians have embraced their democracy and are willing to fight to protect it is what scares Putin to death and the reason for this war. He wants to squash this fledgling democracy before it spreads to Russia. NATO just meant that he couldn't meddle in Ukraine anymore, at least for a long time. It's not about the missiles.

 

This isn't about demonizing Russia either. They are different world views. However to blame this on NATO is an attempt to paint both sides with the same brush which is not accurate. There is one aggressor here and only one.

Watch this, yes I get Ukraine is a sovereign nation but the reality is big countries bully little countries in the west and the east, this is more about the conflicts to come. Watch this it does a great job of explaining the military thinking behind Moscow’s play here. 

I’m not saying Russia are justified, I’m saying this is why it’s happening he’s not some unhinged loon, this is very much a global arms chess match.

[nudge]

1 minute ago, shut up said:

I thought the communist party didn't own Pravda anymore?

They still do own the actual paper: https://gazeta-pravda.ru/ 

Журналистская организация АНО «Редакция газеты «Правда», Коммунистическая партия Российской Федерации.

[nudge]

13 minutes ago, shut up said:

hard to feel any sympathy for Russian soldiers when they're not even trying to avoid civilian casualties 

Only if you consider every single Russian soldier personally responsible for every military action resulting in civilian casualties. Personally, I find it pretty easy to sympathise with young kids who get thrown into a war not of their choosing and who just want to be home with their family, but are instead forced to kill and die for no reason at all.

[Tommy]

Jesus Christ, people are dumb. Shame he didn't catch them in the act and gave them a good ass whooping.

[nudge]

1 minute ago, shut up said:

Don't wanna go to war, don't join the army. 

All this forced/conscript bollocks lol nobody can force you to join the army, put on military equipment and travel to Ukraine to kill innocent people. you can refuse, and spend a few months in prison, like anybody with a moral compass would do 

Up to 2 years in prison or labor camp for draft dodging. 

[RandoEFC+]

Concerning behaviour and some of the comments in this thread too. Just stop and think, does Boris Johnson represent you as the leader of Great Britain? Do you agree with everything he says or does? Would you want people from other countries to think that your opinion is his opinion? And if he declared an invasion of Ireland or something and commanded the British military to start bombing and shooting the shit out of Irish people until they agreed to be a vassal state of Great Britain, would that justify other people abusing you just because you're British, even if his actions made you absolutely sick to your stomach?

I've argued with DDW in this thread but he's absolutely right about the Russian army. Some of them may be willing soldiers that share Putin's worldview and his view on Ukraine. Even from this lot, most of them have probably arrived there because they've been lied to and fed state-sponsored propaganda for much of their lives. I'm sure there are some psychopaths among them that are revelling in the power at their fingertips, bombing residential blocks and train stations full of civilians. These are still the actions of individuals, which is what we should be judging, rather than an entire nation.

People are upset and scared and angry at the Russian government and leader for what we're witnessing. It doesn't make it alright to tar all Russians with the same brush any more than it's ever alright to hold prejudice against other groups based on religion, race, nationality, gender, sexuality, etc., because that's what people who are picking on anything they see with a Russian flag on it are doing at the end of the day. Direct your anger and hatred toward those who are truly responsible, Vladimir Putin and his direct cronies. 

Edited March 3, 2022 by RondónEFC

[Dr. Gonzo]

21 minutes ago, shut up said:

Don't wanna go to war, don't join the army. 

All this forced/conscript bollocks lol nobody can force you to join the army, put on military equipment and travel to Ukraine to kill innocent people. you can refuse/ go AWOL, and spend a few months in prison, like anybody with a moral compass would do 

Easier said than done, especially in a country like Russia.

[RandoEFC+]

1 minute ago, shut up said:

grow a backbone and do the time then, rather than enter a warzone to kill innocent Ukrainians. i accept it's unfair, but ultimately anybody with any conscience would do. This isn't a difficult decision imo 

a guy a year above me at school did 10 months for going AWOL as he didn't wanna tour Afghanistan. the correct & moral thing to do. 

These kids don't have access to the same information as you and I though. They've been sent in there after being told that they're rescuing these innocent Ukrainian people from a neo-Nazi government. And their worldview is probably fucked up by all of the propaganda they've been fed throughout their lives.

There have also been plenty of reports of Russian soldiers who have deserted or surrendered easily once they realised the reality is not what they've been told. These guys are doing exactly what you suggest.

[Dr. Gonzo]

3 minutes ago, shut up said:

Nah, it's the correct thing to do. given the choice of entering a warzone as an imperialist force, there to kill or subjugate a people, or go awol - i know which I'd be choosing 

Okay but like @RondónEFC says…. these are kids who are being lied too.

It is the career military men, the high up officers, that I think deserve the condemnation. Not kids being sent to die for a dictator.

This isn’t like the US or UK we’re talking about where people sign up to go kill people in far off lands we’ve invaded for the sake of economic imperialism. Most of these troops are conscripts that are lied to about the reason they went there.

[nudge]

Just now, shut up said:

grow a backbone and do the time then, rather than enter a warzone to kill innocent Ukrainians. i accept it's unfair, but ultimately anybody with any conscience would do. This isn't a difficult decision imo 

a guy a year above me at school did 10 months for going AWOL as he didn't wanna tour Afghanistan. the correct & moral thing to do. 

They were drafted before the war though, and according to Russian law, conscripts can't be sent to active war zones, so they couldn't foresee it. If they went AWOL after conscription, then they would be facing by far more serious charges under Article 337 of the Russian criminal code (going absent without leave) which carries a sentence of up to 5 years imprisonment and Article 338 (desertion) up to 10 years.

It's very easy to make appeals to morality when it's not your life on the line. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

5 minutes ago, shut up said:

how do you know that? seems like a convenient narrative but I'd be surprised if it's true. Loads of anti war protesters in all major Russian cities. Everyone has internet there & can make up their own minds. This isn't 1960s Soviet union

They have the internet but it’s been increasingly restricted - they’ve already blocked Wikipedia pages covering the war and they’re planning on outright taking Wikipedia out.

There are anti war protests, but there are also huge numbers of people who support the war - much like the US during Vietnam and Iraq.

Russia’s even closed down non-state owned news sources that have called the war a “war” - and the “official rationale” Russia’s given for the war, that it’s a peacekeeping mission to denazify, demilitarise, and to remain as peacekeepers until a new (probably Russian puppet) government is chosen, is not a secret. It was in Putin’s unhinged speech & its what Russian state media is feeding its population.

[Dr. Gonzo]

4 minutes ago, shut up said:

You're right it is easy- don't invade , subjugate or kill people. I don't know why you're making out like it's a difficult decision, or that it's unheard of that people go AWOL or refuse conscription. It's actually quite common ,and anybody with any moral fibre would do the same. There are, and have been, thousands of conscientious objectors sent to prison for refusing to take part in war. stop making out like it's impossible or implausible.

it's good to know which posters probably think nazi soldiers were just 'following orders'.

Where was that moral fibre in the UK when we invaded Iraq on false pretenses?

We had anti war protests, but did we have soldiers refuse to follow orders en masse?

[Dr. Gonzo]

Is anyone else enjoying the usually pro-Putin Daily Mail now pretending they weren’t twerking for him just a week ago?