UK Politics & Brexit Discussion

[CaaC (John)+]

6 minutes ago, The Artful Dodger said:

Another election incoming.

I would put my money on that, too many people looked at May as another Maggie Thatcher but there was only one Iron Lady and May will never in a million years be another Maggie. 

 

[SirBalon]

1 hour ago, CaaC - John said:

I would put my money on that, too many people looked at May as another Maggie Thatcher but there was only one Iron Lady and May will never in a million years be another Maggie. 

 

Thank the lord for that!  We have nothing much to privatise to be honest, so another Thatcher existence would be pointless.

 

[SirBalon]

1 hour ago, Kowabunga said:

Raab (also Shailesh Vara) handed in his resignation!

 

Is this reckoning day?

 

That just shows all the Gammons out there that voted for the UK to have grab back sovereignty and independence...WE

ALWAYS DID HAVE SOVEREIGNTY stupid fools!

Now, now we don't with the deal.  But not to worry.  This will be voted out of parliament and will draw the political system into even more chaos than it's already in.  We have the bafoons in Davies and Boris to bumble up a revolution.

My hope is that enough to chaos is created so as we can have another referendum and I can right my personal wrong.

[The Artful Dodger]

32 minutes ago, SirBalon said:

 

My hope is that enough to chaos is created so as we can have another referendum and I can right my personal wrong. 

You voted Brexit first time round? Or the Brexit vote was a maliciously personal vote against yourself?

[SirBalon]

3 minutes ago, The Artful Dodger said:

You voted Brexit first time round? Or the Brexit vote was a maliciously personal vote against yourself?

Not that it mattered considering the outcome of the London vote and how it was always going to result.  Indeed I voted Brexit as I was duped and fell for the rhetoric.  I've mentioned it on here before... It's not the only bad decision I've made in my life (I would expect many do make erroneous moves), but it is the worst considering how for the first time I let those that try to manipulate, do so.

[SirBalon]

James O’Brien of LBC issued a recovery of UK newspaper headlines for the last 20 years showing how people have been duped into believing lies!

I can’t recover it right now.

[SirBalon]

[LFCMike]

Strong and stable...

[SirBalon]

1 minute ago, LFCMike said:

Strong and stable...

What's strong and stable?

[LFCMike]

Just now, SirBalon said:

What's strong and stable?

Not Theresa May's government, clearly. 

[SirBalon]

Just now, LFCMike said:

Not Theresa May's government, clearly. 

So it was a stab at the government and the general state of British politics?

If that's the case then the sarcastic ironic quirk is understandable but anything else is believing in unicorns.

[LFCMike]

Just now, SirBalon said:

So it was a stab at the government and the general state of British politics?

If that's the case then the sarcastic ironic quirk is understandable but anything else is believing in unicorns.

Yes

[SirBalon]

Esther de Lange (Dutch MEP) putting Nigel Farage (Plonker) to rights!

Is there any way we can ship in some Dutch Politicians to take over our own before freedom of movement is banned in the UK?

 

[CaaC (John)+]

1 hour ago, SirBalon said:

Thank the lord for that!  We have nothing much to privatise to be honest, so another Thatcher existence would be pointless.

Thank the high heavens there will never be another Thatcher (I hope not !!), she upset a lot of Scots people at the time when she introduced the Poll Tax and Scotland was the first home nation that the law was implicated then followed by Wales and she left England last on the list.

Anyway, politics & politicians do not interest me as they are all the same, they make promises they don't keep just to be elected, I never argue about politics nowadays.   

[Fairy In Boots]

I don’t know what’s funnier the fact the offices of Government now resemble the specials from “the thick of it” . 

Or Balon’s constant whining because he voted leave. It’s a full on breakdown we’re on for a here I reckon. “We were lied to” no one care outside of London we hate you all, we believe you’re mentally unhinged & we want to leave. 

This wont get through Parliament it’s completely toxic, we’re heading for No deal and a change of leadership Tory shortly after. 

I don’t think Corbyn will fight 2022, labour will knife him after we leave and probably put some utter bellend in and call it’s new new labour. 

Goes without saying really that the Tory’s have been so poor for some time now

[CaaC (John)+]

Theresa May’s premiership has been declared dead before. After her election losses last year, the British Prime Minister appeared to be on the brink of resigning.

As she left 10 Downing Street on Thursday morning, members of her own party once again wondered: How long can she last? In the early morning hours, several British ministers resigned over May’s deal to leave the European Union, which was released on Wednesday. Theresa May likely expected some resignations, but one came unexpectedly: Dominic Raab, her second Brexit minister.

With the official who negotiated May’s Brexit deal writing that he “cannot support the proposed deal,” the British government was suddenly thrown into jeopardy.

May has come under attack from both sides of the political spectrum. Staunch Pro-Brexiteers argue that May’s deal does not go far enough and would keep Britain under the sway of the European Union while taking away all powers to shape that bloc. Pro-European MPs, meanwhile, think that Britain should stay even closer aligned with E.U. laws and within the bloc’s customs union.

When May told the British parliament on Thursday that “we will leave the E.U. in an orderly way,” her remarks were met with laughter by MPs.

So, what could be next? Here are some of the likely scenarios.

Two key choices ahead

1) MPs vote in favor of May’s deal

Even though May’s deal pleases neither pro-European nor pro-Brexit MPs, the prime minister may still have some leverage to push through her deal or a modified version of it. The most powerful argument in her favor would be that the problem might not be her, but Brexit itself.

While her deal is imperfect on many levels, it would still help Britain avoid a “no deal” Brexit that could cost jobs and trigger a recession. At the same time, there has been cross-party agreement to respect the results of the 2016 referendum to leave the European Union. Many MPs who want to uphold that promise but are scared of a no-deal Brexit will back May.

2) MPs vote against May’s deal or dump her

Still, the prime minister is currently not believed to have the necessary votes for that to happen and with every minister resignation, chances are getting slimmer.

She can’t bank on much support from the opposition, as Scotland’s SNP party is disgruntled that it was left out of the negotiations and the Liberal Democrats will vote against the deal out of principle. Most Labour Party members are expected to also reject the agreement, partially because a May defeat increases the likelihood of a future Labour prime minister.

Worse even, May is facing a rebellion among her own allies. Pro-Brexiteers will vote against her deal and the party that has kept her in power since last year — the Northern Irish DUP — might join them. The DUP leadership fears that May’s deal could create a de facto border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom. That’s a red line for a party committed to keeping Northern Ireland fully within the United Kingdom.

Labour cannot topple May by itself, but the prime minister’s own allies may help with that. Moreover, if Northern Ireland’s DUP were to withdraw from their agreement to keep the Conservative Party — led by May or any successor — in power, then new general elections would be almost inevitable. Without the DUP, the Tories lack a majority in parliament.

What it means for Brexit

A no-deal Brexit is unpopular but may be inevitable

If May’s deal is rejected, chances of a no-deal Brexit rise. While leading pro-Brexiteers have said that they would prefer this scenario over a bad deal, a no-deal Brexit would likely not be a deliberate choice but instead an accidental outcome of a government unable to obtain a majority for any better solution.

All stakeholders know very well that a no-deal Brexit could have catastrophic repercussions on the British economy. As an island, Britain is dependent on its trade with the European Union and a no-deal Brexit would disrupt all those ties overnight. The government may have to ship in goods to keep supermarkets stocked and nobody knows for sure what the impact on the millions of Europeans working in Britain would be.

Nothing really changes

Given the risks of a no-deal Brexit, parliament could theoretically reject May’s deal until Christmas and still approve a similar document next year.

But even then, it would be unclear what sort of relationship Britain would have with the European Union in the long term. How would Britain’s immigration policy look like, especially as think tanks predict that the country will face a severe labor shortage going forward? Could it stay in the customs union permanently to prevent a border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the country?

Theoretically, Britain could extend the agreed transition period — in which Britain will essentially remain part of the E.U. without having a say in it — year after year, arguing that Britain isn’t ready to fully withdraw, yet. But in that case, Britain would only be outside the E.U. on paper.

That’s one of the reasons Labour leader Corbyn said on Thursday that he cannot accept having to choose between no deal and May’s deal.

Going back to Brussels

The question is what other choices there are. Corbyn has implied that going back to Brussels to get a better agreement could be one way out of the dilemma. But the E.U. has proven over the last year that it is bound by its own treaties and has little interest in adapting its rules to British demands.

It’s unclear why that would change under Corbyn unless he agreed to stick to staying in the single market and the customs union. This would mean that Britain would essentially still be subject to E.U. laws, which has been rejected many times by all parties. Such a solution would probably only be possible in the unlikely scenario that Corbyn’s Labour Party campaigned on that promise in general elections and won an overwhelming mandate for it — or supported a second referendum.

A second referendum

Supporters of a new vote on Britain’s E.U. membership argue that a second referendum is not only an option but a must, given that the promises pro-Brexit politicians campaigned on have largely proven to be misleading. Critics maintain that posing the same question again because MPs didn’t like the British people’s response would ruin trust in British democracy.

Amid all the confusion, there’s one certainty, though: Britain has only four more months left to figure it all out. It’s set to either leave or crash out of the E.U. by March 29 next year.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/dump-may-approve-her-plan-some-scenarios-for-what-might-be-next-for-brexit-britain/ar-BBPJV7Y?li=BBoPRmx

[The Artful Dodger]

31 minutes ago, Fairy In Boots said:

I don’t know what’s funnier the fact the offices of Government now resemble the specials from “the thick of it” . 

Or Balon’s constant whining because he voted leave. It’s a full on breakdown we’re on for a here I reckon. “We were lied to” no one care outside of London we hate you all, we believe you’re mentally unhinged & we want to leave. 

This wont get through Parliament it’s completely toxic, we’re heading for No deal and a change of leadership Tory shortly after. 

I don’t think Corbyn will fight 2022, labour will knife him after we leave and probably put some utter bellend in and call it’s new new labour. 

Goes without saying really that the Tory’s have been so poor for some time now

Not true, most of the Northern cities voted similarly to London.

May has for the first time raised the prospect of a second vote, giving it a credence it hasn't yet had. I don't actually agree with a second vote per se but the tides turning a little, there will be a general election before any final deal/no deal and the outcome will be decided on the campaign pledges. I wouldn't bet against the May surviving though.

 

Edited November 15, 2018 by The Artful Dodger

[SirBalon]

People continue to believe in the existence of unicorns and that part will never change. We were all lied to but many of those lies weren't even proper ones because nobody knew what the implications of leaving were until now and even now it's not all that clear because as strange as it may seem it's actually worse than the worse case scenario.

I laugh at the fact Farage has made sure his sons have freedom of movement within Europe for their future.  My child and possible future children will also have this with dual and triple nationality.  I have a British and Spanish Passport which means swapping at arrivals wherever I go... But that's just the mere movement part with my and my family's legal Reigate to work and move within this continent.  My lament is how people have voted to be poorer because they were told unicorns exist.

[God is Haaland]

4 hours ago, LFCMike said:

Not Theresa May's government, clearly. 

At least she can dance.

[Honey Honey]

8 hours ago, SirBalon said:

That just shows all the Gammons out there that voted for the UK to have grab back sovereignty and independence...WE

ALWAYS DID HAVE SOVEREIGNTY stupid fools!

Now, now we don't with the deal.  But not to worry.  This will be voted out of parliament and will draw the political system into even more chaos than it's already in.  We have the bafoons in Davies and Boris to bumble up a revolution.

My hope is that enough to chaos is created so as we can have another referendum and I can right my personal wrong.

It's a withdrawal agreement, they haven't actually started the negotiations of the final deal yet.

You may well have been duped into voting for Brexit. But ask yourself this, are your current expressions and hottakes any different to the behaviourial disposition that had you duped in the first place? You repeatedly sound over emotional and irrational, some of the language borders on the ridiculous. It's easy to see how someone talking like that might have got lured in by some of the similar leave campaign language. It seems like you just attach yourself to an idea then go all bonkers in without any self doubt.

As for the withdrawal agreement, a lot of the political class and commentariat seemed to make their mind up without knowing what was in the agreement. There's a real dirth of intellectual reasoning going on. We have politicians deciding how they are voting without having read a single page of a highly complex legal agreement. Certain people decided ages ago they were completely against Theresa May's approach. As soon as May came out with something, rather than examine it in its context they delivered prescripted hottakes.

As for May and Thatcher comparisons. They were initially based on character and personality. May never possessed Thatchers intellectualism and most likely could not replicate her authoritarian ruthless character due to power weaknesses. The person changes to the situation.

[Bluewolf]

2 hours ago, BartraPique1932 said:

At least she can dance.

[SirBalon]

5 minutes ago, Harvsky said:

It's a withdrawal agreement, they haven't actually started the negotiations of the final deal yet.

You may well have been duped into voting for Brexit. But ask yourself this, are your current expressions and hottakes any different to the behaviourial disposition that had you duped in the first place? You repeatedly sound over emotional and irrational, some of the language borders on the ridiculous. It's easy to see how someone talking like that might have got lured in by some of the similar leave campaign language. It seems like you just attach yourself to an idea then go all bonkers in without any self doubt.

As for the withdrawal agreement, a lot of the political class and commentariat seemed to make their mind up without knowing what was in the agreement. There's a real dirth of intellectual reasoning going on. We have politicians deciding how they are voting without having read a single page of a highly complex legal agreement. Certain people decided ages ago they were completely against Theresa May's approach. As soon as May came out with something, rather than examine it in its context they delivered prescripted hottakes.

As for May and Thatcher comparisons. They were initially based on character and personality. May never possessed Thatchers intellectualism and most likely could not replicate her authoritarian ruthless character due to power weaknesses. The person changes to the situation.

The way I see it, Theresa May’s Chequers deal which has apparently been aproved by the EU shows the referendum vote’s partioned result of almost half half. There’s a bit for everyone but without the best deal which was to be in the EU itself and have power to have a say. 

[The Artful Dodger]

She's called Rees-Mogg's bluff now, he has to get the 48 letters or he is done completely. The weasel like Gove will wait till as late as possible to see which way the wind is blowing before either resigning or publicly backing May.

May's deal being accepted means another 2 years of negotiations, it's basically a stay of execution.

[Honey Honey]

41 minutes ago, SirBalon said:

The way I see it, Theresa May’s Chequers deal which has apparently been aproved by the EU shows the referendum vote’s partioned result of almost half half. There’s a bit for everyone but without the best deal which was to be in the EU itself and have power to have a say. 

That might be over rating public power and underrating the composition of power within the political institutions. It also might be misdiagnosing what public attitudes are by forcing them into binary identities.

[RandoEFC+]

I find it hard to weigh in on this now it's become such a chore to follow what's going on and I'm a bit past caring.

There doesn't seem to be a sensible solution anymore. We will not negotiate a good deal with the EU regardless of the leadership. In this sense, that isn't May's failure, her failure is in how poorly it has been handled.

Her position looked untenable after the snap election and we're seeing now all of the reasons why.

We can all make valid points about how the public voted in favour of Brexit which is fair enough but when the new power bloc in and around number 10 found themselves there not through their belief in Brexit and desire to make it work, but through sheer opportunism and backing the right horse, you can't expect them to negotiate successfully in the interests of the public.

The only way for this to work was for May to pull a blinder. Any other option involving a change of leadership just undermines the country and our negotiating position even more whether we send Boris, Corbyn or Sonic the Hedgehog to the negotiating table halfway through the negotiation period.

I understand people's reservations with a second referendum as this again undermines the country's position. However I don't think it's unreasonable to comment now that there's a fair few people who have made a bit of a u-turn, and that a lot of the electorate are now more educated about what Brexit means for us than they were when they voted. If public opinion has swayed enough in that direction, and I personally don't think it has quite yet though it is on the way, then you could perhaps justify a second referendum which could lead to us scrapping Brexit altogether. The more this goes on the more it seems that that's the safest course of action, though I did vote to Remain all along so I'm clearly biased even if I'm trying not to be.