UK Politics & Brexit Discussion

[Dr. Gonzo]

David Cameron back in government is bizarre

[RandoEFC+]

I haven't been paying that much attention lately but I've just seen on Twitter while I was having a shit that David Cameron has just been made Foreign Secretary.

What the fuck is going on?

How that party are allowed to burn through three horrendous prime ministers in one term and allowed to bring another one of their failed former prime ministers out of retirement to become a minister of state by putting him in the House of Lords overnight when he hasn't even been democratically elected to an actual seat, all without the public having any means to recall them for a fresh general election until they're legally forced to, really doesn't seem like a functioning democracy.

[6666]

Not sure how Suella Braverman even got the job. Thought Priti Patel was bad but then this psycho showed up. Great news that she's gone.

[RandoEFC+]

1 hour ago, 6666 said:

Not sure how Suella Braverman even got the job. Thought Priti Patel was bad but then this psycho showed up. Great news that she's gone.

Braverman also got sacked towards the end of the Liz Truss era because she broke the ministerial code and/or was responsible for some sort of leak linked to national security, then was reappointed by Sunak within a couple of weeks. Incredible that she got the job back.

[6666]

Suella Braverman with a Stan like letter to Rishi Sunak on her way out.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67416146

Edited November 14, 2023 by 6666

[Stan]

2 hours ago, 6666 said:

Suella Braverman with a Stan like letter to Rishi Sunak on her way out.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67416146

What? 

[Michael]

On 13/11/2023 at 20:01, 6666 said:

Not sure how Suella Braverman even got the job. Thought Priti Patel was bad but then this psycho showed up. Great news that she's gone.

I hate to say it, but the TFLA and Tommy's lot are probably the ones who got her the sack in the end, due to their rowdy behaviour. I was there when they were all kettled in at Parliament Square and then when they charged the police and hurled abuse at them. The riot police looked outnumbered, but they did a decent job, under the circumstances. 

[Stan]

4 hours ago, Michael said:

I hate to say it, but the TFLA and Tommy's lot are probably the ones who got her the sack in the end, due to their rowdy behaviour. I was there when they were all kettled in at Parliament Square and then when they charged the police and hurled abuse at them. The riot police looked outnumbered, but they did a decent job, under the circumstances. 

Suella brought that on herself. She stoked the fire and and then poured copious amounts of fuel on to it. 

[6666]

20 hours ago, Stan said:

What? 

How they were one and in it together but now that she feels rejected, she wants to see his downfall.

[Dr. Gonzo]

21 hours ago, Stan said:

What? 

Stan like the Eminem song, not Stan like the bloke off TF365 

[Stan]

56 minutes ago, 6666 said:

How they were one and in it together but now that she feels rejected, she wants to see his downfall.

Oh, I saw Stan and thought it was in reference to me or something I'd done 

[6666]

2 hours ago, Stan said:

Oh, I saw Stan and thought it was in reference to me or something I'd done 

[Gunnersaurus]

So the government are now targeting people with mental health issues. Saying anxiety is not an excuse. This is very personal to me. Actually almost made me cry. It seems everytime this government can't get worse they do. 

[Honey Honey]

15 hours ago, Gunnersaurus said:

So the government are now targeting people with mental health issues. Saying anxiety is not an excuse. This is very personal to me. Actually almost made me cry. It seems everytime this government can't get worse they do. 

Is this the wfh push?

If so if I can offer you any hope it's that it won't likely come in until after an election. So might not happen.

[Stan]

When does everyone think a general election will be called?

Has to be done before January 2025, but I doubt it'll be left as late as that.

Perhaps May 2024, or later in autumn perhaps Sept time?

[Bluebird Hewitt]

21 minutes ago, Stan said:

When does everyone think a general election will be called?

Has to be done before January 2025, but I doubt it'll be left as late as that.

Perhaps May 2024, or later in autumn perhaps Sept time?

Excluding the current shit fest since Cameron's resignation in 2016, previous elections have been held around the beginning of May.

[Gunnersaurus]

2 hours ago, Stan said:

When does everyone think a general election will be called?

Has to be done before January 2025, but I doubt it'll be left as late as that.

Perhaps May 2024, or later in autumn perhaps Sept time?

I think it's for the prime minister to decide. They changed the law and no one can force it apart from him unless Charlie calls one. Personally I think that law should be changed.

[Gunnersaurus]

3 hours ago, Honey Honey said:

Is this the wfh push?

If so if I can offer you any hope it's that it won't likely come in until after an election. So might not happen.

I don't think the government said that to be fair. It was some idiot on talktv saying  mental health wasn't a legitimate reason. I don't watch it but it showed up on my YouTube and being so personal to me I clicked on it. The government have encouraged people with mobility issues or mental health issues to work from home where possible. However conservatives always say they will crack down on illegitimate people claiming benefits and they never do anything. The fact is a huge majority of people claiming benifits are legitimately ill. Its debatable whether the costs of the crack down would be worth it. It doesn't affect me personally. But when you have to go very careful to make sure you are not reinforcing any stereotype that people on benifits are scroungers. I know there are some people that do. I've met people who do but most would work of they could. Even the government's own estimates said the amount claiming who could work is very low. 

[Stan]

31 minutes ago, Gunnersaurus said:

I think it's for the prime minister to decide. They changed the law and no one can force it apart from him unless Charlie calls one. Personally I think that law should be changed.

I know it's for the PM to decide. Was just wondering when everyone thinks he'll do it. 

[Gunnersaurus]

6 hours ago, Stan said:

I know it's for the PM to decide. Was just wondering when everyone thinks he'll do it. 

Wouldn't he want to do it as late as possible as its almost certain they will loose ? 

[Gunnersaurus]

@Honey Honey after reading about it seems to me that this is a plan to try to push people into work who aren't able to. From what I gather it probably won't help the economy much if at all and we won't notice the difference in the tax we pay. Obviously if we can get people into work it's better but it seems that the conservatives are trying to be seen to doing something about people claiming benefits. However trying to force people who are unable to work into work to get votes is despicable 

[Honey Honey]

2 hours ago, Gunnersaurus said:

@Honey Honey after reading about it seems to me that this is a plan to try to push people into work who aren't able to. From what I gather it probably won't help the economy much if at all and we won't notice the difference in the tax we pay. Obviously if we can get people into work it's better but it seems that the conservatives are trying to be seen to doing something about people claiming benefits. However trying to force people who are unable to work into work to get votes is despicable 

 

Don't worry mate, May 2024 election is the rumour tonight. 

Tories are playing cards designed to defend their heartlands from embarrassing electoral wipeout. Never say never in terms of whether they can win outright but there'd need to be substantial movement for that. No sign of any wind change yet.

[Gunnersaurus]

Can someone explain to me why the conservatives would call an earlier election when they will almost certainly loose? @Honey Honey you are normally good at this stuff 

[RandoEFC+]

9 minutes ago, Gunnersaurus said:

Can someone explain to me why the conservatives would call an earlier election when they will almost certainly loose? @Honey Honey you are normally good at this stuff 

It's close enough to the deadline now that, realistically, they can't say "we've still got X months/years until we have to call an election so we can turn this around in that time". The polls haven't got any better for them really since they originally nose-dived in the later Boris Johnson days, and some models are even predicting that they could suffer an historic wipeout with Labour getting 400+ seats out of 650 and the Conservatives around 150. The by-election results over the last few months pretty much support what the polls have been saying as well, as far as you can read into by-election results. Therefore their strategy now is damage limitation, we're going to lose but how can we lose with 200+ seats and at least keep Labour below 400, rather than getting wiped out horrifically.

As to the specifics of their strategy, I'm no expert on that. They'll presumably be looking at economic forecasts and if those are saying that inflation and interest rates might start looking better in the late Spring, they could see a slight improvement in their polls and approval ratings ahead of an election in the summer, for example. I've also read that there's data showing a winter election could be better/worse for them because certain demographics that might disproportionately vote for certain parties are less likely to actually going out to bother voting when it's dark and freezing. 

There's a lot to consider but if they no longer see a pathway to turning the polls around before the election becomes compulsory in Winter 2024, and they have reason to believe that a Spring/Summer 2024 election could see them win 200 seats whereas a Winter 2024 election could knock them down to 150, then they'll have it earlier than they "have to". Again, though, I'm not the person to ask about what the exact reasoning is behind why they may think that.

[6666]

7 hours ago, Gunnersaurus said:

Can someone explain to me why the conservatives would call an earlier election when they will almost certainly loose? @Honey Honey you are normally good at this stuff 

While the Tories do suck, Labour doesn't really have much momentum and seem to be just relying on "at least we're not Tories" as their message.

Similar to the Democrats in the US, being the "we're not as bad as the other lot" party isn't a message that motivates people. You might win by default if the other guy is extremely, extremely disliked but Rishi just seems like a guy people don't take seriously rather than someone people hate.