The Relegation Battle 2023

[Lucas]

Not this shit again.

Is it too early? Probably.

Feels a bit early, but also feels like it's taking shape now.

Ridiculously tight this. What was good about last season was how bad Norwich were and Watford, despite a bit of fight, looked like they were always going to go too.

Virtually it was Everton, Leeds and Burnley fighting it out with one spot left to avoid.

This season you don't feel there is that Norwich in this league. Cannon fodder that have one spot wrapped up by February. It's way too tight for that now.

When you are in the thick of it and not getting results, you naturally think you're the one's going down.

I feel it with Leeds, Stan and Dan feel it with Leicester, Rando and Cannabis feel it with Everton.

We're all on poor runs, not getting results and want our manager gone.

Feels worse when you see Wolves are improving so they will probably get out of it and I hate to say it but Forest look like they could scrap themselves out of it too.

The only side I feel confident of taking one space is Bournemouth. Maybe that is more hoping it's the case but I don't think they got it in them.

Lots will happen of course and as teams knock a couple wins together and some go on losing runs, the shift in momentum and predictions will change but either way, this feels like another tight one.

[RandoEFC+]

Needs a new thread really.

There is no dross this season though. Usually two shite teams go down and one who could have survived takes the last spot because someone has to. The bottom eight are all one notch above blatant relegation fodder and usually that's enough that you only need to keep ahead of one other team who's as bad as you because one or two others are total write-offs but I don't see a write-off team this season.

[CaaC (John)+]

7 minutes ago, Lucas said:

Rando and Cannabis feel it with Everton.

Who is he? 

[Stan]

13 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

There is no dross this season though

Hey! 

[Stan]

13 minutes ago, CaaC (John) said:

Who is he? 

Are you joking

[CaaC (John)+]

1 hour ago, Stan said:

Are you joking

Never heard of him? 

[OrangeKhrush]

the relegation battle is intense this season, like 7 teams in it maybe even Chelsea on form

[LFCMike]

For personal reasons, reasons beyond Liverpool's rivalry with Everton, I'm desperate for Everton to go down.

[LFCMadLad]

8 hours ago, LFCMike said:

For personal reasons, reasons beyond Liverpool's rivalry with Everton, I'm desperate for Everton to go down.

We might go down on current form 

[Dave]

Crystal Palace have entered the chat.

[OrangeKhrush]

Everton play West Ham next week,  what are the odds on this being a great game not for quality of football but just pure desperation. 

[Stan]

I'm worried that there's no longer 3 teams that are worse than us in terms of form, style and then of course results.

The form table shows:

 

That one win pre-WC keeping us above having a big fat 0 to our name. Goals have dried up, too. Probably coincides with Maddison being out, and the severe lack of confidence amongst the squad.

And that's what has gone on in the recent past. What is to come could be even worse when you look at our fixtures - genuinely do not see where the next point comes from, let alone a win:

Brighton - in good form, playing them just as they've spanked Liverpool with ease. LOSS.
Villa - regaining form with a new manager, seem to have much more about them. Amazing what a change of manager can do to relight the fire in a team... LOSS.
Tottenham - home record against them is bad enough, let alone Kane's guaranteed goals against us. LOSS.
Man Utd - Ten Hag has them playing with confidence and desire, and more importantly a solid defence and an attack on fire with Rashford in hot form. LOSS.
Arsenal - top of the league, form team, champions-elect? LOSS.
Southampton - rough start for Jones, but a last-min win against Everton, beating City in the cup seems to have ignited something in them. Plus, our team have no bottle in a game that could mean so much. LOSS.
Chelsea - we're the exact kind of team to help play another team into form. We couldn't even beat them when they went down to 10 men earlier in the season. LOSS.
Brentford - a team that plays on the front foot and will batter our defence with the amount of pressure high up the field they play with. LOSS.

 

Six of those are against current top 10 teams. We've not beaten a top 10 team all season . Villa on the cusp of top half too. 

 

So that takes us up to the end of March. By which time other teams may have pulled away and salvaged some belief, perhaps in thanks to managerial changes (Everton, West Ham?). And that's the other thing that gives me no confidence right now - when our team is really up against it, they shy away instead of confronting other teams with a bit of passion and belief. The Forest game at the weekend for example. Cowered away and took the beating like boys instead of men.  We play 4 of the current bottom 8 in April - could be a massive month but will most likely just go out with a bit of a whimper. If by some miracle both West Ham and ourselves are still fighting for survival, we play each other on the final day of the season. Oh, the joy. 

While he's survived some rough times, I would be absolutely shocked if Rodgers is here by the end of March. If a new manager comes in, and perhaps with 1-2 new faces to freshen things up, perhaps the outlook slightly changes, but we're not talking an undefeated streak of 5-6 games here. It'll be patchy at best. It's going to be a rough ride from now til the end of the season. 

[Stan]

2 hours ago, OrangeKhrush said:

Everton play West Ham next week,

Bournemouth vs Forest, too.

 

[Dan+]

We're in huge danger. More than anything it's because I think we're the most complacent of all clubs involved.

[Dan+]

3 hours ago, Stan said:

I'm worried that there's no longer 3 teams that are worse than us in terms of form, style and then of course results.

The form table shows:

 

That one win pre-WC keeping us above having a big fat 0 to our name. Goals have dried up, too. Probably coincides with Maddison being out, and the severe lack of confidence amongst the squad.

And that's what has gone on in the recent past. What is to come could be even worse when you look at our fixtures - genuinely do not see where the next point comes from, let alone a win:

Brighton - in good form, playing them just as they've spanked Liverpool with ease. LOSS.
Villa - regaining form with a new manager, seem to have much more about them. Amazing what a change of manager can do to relight the fire in a team... LOSS.
Tottenham - home record against them is bad enough, let alone Kane's guaranteed goals against us. LOSS.
Man Utd - Ten Hag has them playing with confidence and desire, and more importantly a solid defence and an attack on fire with Rashford in hot form. LOSS.
Arsenal - top of the league, form team, champions-elect? LOSS.
Southampton - rough start for Jones, but a last-min win against Everton, beating City in the cup seems to have ignited something in them. Plus, our team have no bottle in a game that could mean so much. LOSS.
Chelsea - we're the exact kind of team to help play another team into form. We couldn't even beat them when they went down to 10 men earlier in the season. LOSS.
Brentford - a team that plays on the front foot and will batter our defence with the amount of pressure high up the field they play with. LOSS.

 

Six of those are against current top 10 teams. We've not beaten a top 10 team all season . Villa on the cusp of top half too. 

 

So that takes us up to the end of March. By which time other teams may have pulled away and salvaged some belief, perhaps in thanks to managerial changes (Everton, West Ham?). And that's the other thing that gives me no confidence right now - when our team is really up against it, they shy away instead of confronting other teams with a bit of passion and belief. The Forest game at the weekend for example. Cowered away and took the beating like boys instead of men.  We play 4 of the current bottom 8 in April - could be a massive month but will most likely just go out with a bit of a whimper. If by some miracle both West Ham and ourselves are still fighting for survival, we play each other on the final day of the season. Oh, the joy. 

While he's survived some rough times, I would be absolutely shocked if Rodgers is here by the end of March. If a new manager comes in, and perhaps with 1-2 new faces to freshen things up, perhaps the outlook slightly changes, but we're not talking an undefeated streak of 5-6 games here. It'll be patchy at best. It's going to be a rough ride from now til the end of the season. 

I can't believe we'll lose 9 in a row but we really could couldn't we? Brighton will win here. Villa reeks of the usual 2-1 loss. Spurs are the kings of the turnaround and we're the kings of being turned around. Man Utd & Arsenal will sail past us.

We're in severe trouble for me. It's all brewing a perfect storm to relegate us. We are basically now totally hinging on Maddison's fitness / form to keep us up, which is a dire state of affairs and it should never, ever have come to this.

I put a bet on us a week ago to go down at 6/1. I put on the amount it would take to return whatever my season ticket cost this season, so roughly £62 on us to get relegated. 6/1 was an insane price given the fixtures we had coming up. Even if it doesn't win I'm about 90% sure we'll be in the bottom 3 come March.

I had a horrible feeling we'd come back from the World Cup in the same disarray as early doors.

[Stan]

1 hour ago, Dan said:

I can't believe we'll lose 9 in a row but we really could couldn't we? Brighton will win here. Villa reeks of the usual 2-1 loss. Spurs are the kings of the turnaround and we're the kings of being turned around. Man Utd & Arsenal will sail past us.

We're in severe trouble for me. It's all brewing a perfect storm to relegate us. We are basically now totally hinging on Maddison's fitness / form to keep us up, which is a dire state of affairs and it should never, ever have come to this.

I put a bet on us a week ago to go down at 6/1. I put on the amount it would take to return whatever my season ticket cost this season, so roughly £62 on us to get relegated. 6/1 was an insane price given the fixtures we had coming up. Even if it doesn't win I'm about 90% sure we'll be in the bottom 3 come March.

I had a horrible feeling we'd come back from the World Cup in the same disarray as early doors.

Yeah we were 11/2 around start of the year. Odd that it's not much different to that on your bet. 

We really could lose 9. I've got no confidence in us that a) we'll take a lead and keep it or b) we'll turn a game around. We've not come from behind to win all season. Indicative of the soft core we have. Take the lead against us and we won't have enough in us to recover or comeback. If we take the lead, the odds are that we won't keep that lead and go on to lose it. Happened far too often to just be something that occurs every now and then.

Interesting you mention perfect storm. People say it was the perfect moment for us to win the league as most of the other top sides were transitioning or never got going and failed to materialise anything substantial. And talking of a perfect storm, the last two times Arsenal won the league, we got relegated . 2001/02 and 03/04. Arsenal look set to win the league...

[RandoEFC+]

1 hour ago, Dan said:

We're in huge danger. More than anything it's because I think we're the most complacent of all clubs involved.

Debatable as you've actually shown a decent run of form before the World Cup.

Every other team that's been as far in the shit as we are now have done something about it. Villa, Wolves and Southampton have all improved after managerial changes, Leeds have just made a big signing. Forest and Bournemouth are probably ahead of where they'd expect to be still so haven't pulled the plug on their managers.

West Ham and Everton are sleepwalking to disaster. My only concern with us is whether it's actually the case that we can't sack Lampard because we can't afford to pay off another manager. We only seem to be able to look for loan signings yet again in this transfer window.

The number of levels to which the board has let down this football club is almost impossible to keep track of. Leicester will probably act before us despite not being as far down the toilet and having to make the call to sack a long-serving manager who's won them a major trophy.

Don't really know why West Ham are dragging their feet. Everton at home next is the ideal fixture to give to a new manager for a probable win and instant boost in mood and momentum.

[Stan]

10 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

Debatable as you've actually shown a decent run of form before the World Cup.

Every other team that's been as far in the shit as we are now have done something about it. Villa, Wolves and Southampton have all improved after managerial changes, Leeds have just made a big signing. Forest and Bournemouth are probably ahead of where they'd expect to be still so haven't pulled the plug on their managers.

West Ham and Everton are sleepwalking to disaster. My only concern with us is whether it's actually the case that we can't sack Lampard because we can't afford to pay off another manager. We only seem to be able to look for loan signings yet again in this transfer window.

The number of levels to which the board has let down this football club is almost impossible to keep track of. Leicester will probably act before us despite not being as far down the toilet and having to make the call to sack a long-serving manager who's won them a major trophy.

Don't really know why West Ham are dragging their feet. Everton at home next is the ideal fixture to give to a new manager for a probable win and instant boost in mood and momentum.

It's also reportedly very costly for us to sack Rodgers, too. On the face of it, we're at a cross-roads of a 'back him or sack him' and it should never have come to that. If he gets backed, he stays and we most probably continue in this mire of dullness. Sack him, and there's going to be very little funds for a new manager to work with, and how long that financial impact has is anyone's guess.

We're sleep-walking into it as much as you/West Ham. 

[Dan+]

1 hour ago, Stan said:

Yeah we were 11/2 around start of the year. Odd that it's not much different to that on your bet. 

We really could lose 9. I've got no confidence in us that a) we'll take a lead and keep it or b) we'll turn a game around. We've not come from behind to win all season. Indicative of the soft core we have. Take the lead against us and we won't have enough in us to recover or comeback. If we take the lead, the odds are that we won't keep that lead and go on to lose it. Happened far too often to just be something that occurs every now and then.

Interesting you mention perfect storm. People say it was the perfect moment for us to win the league as most of the other top sides were transitioning or never got going and failed to materialise anything substantial. And talking of a perfect storm, the last two times Arsenal won the league, we got relegated . 2001/02 and 03/04. Arsenal look set to win the league...

I do think it's a bit of a perfect storm. One which we've largely brewed ourselves but I think our players by and large have less to fight for. Half of them, manager included have their eye on the exit door. I've always thought with the nature of how we do things, it would be very us to get relegated against the odds. I don't think most neutrals, or the club themselves have realised how bad it actually is here. Everton's even more shambolic situation has deflected criticism from us. Yet I think if push comes to shove, they'll be able to do what they did in May again away here.

 

1 hour ago, RandoEFC said:

Debatable as you've actually shown a decent run of form before the World Cup.

Every other team that's been as far in the shit as we are now have done something about it. Villa, Wolves and Southampton have all improved after managerial changes, Leeds have just made a big signing. Forest and Bournemouth are probably ahead of where they'd expect to be still so haven't pulled the plug on their managers.

West Ham and Everton are sleepwalking to disaster. My only concern with us is whether it's actually the case that we can't sack Lampard because we can't afford to pay off another manager. We only seem to be able to look for loan signings yet again in this transfer window.

The number of levels to which the board has let down this football club is almost impossible to keep track of. Leicester will probably act before us despite not being as far down the toilet and having to make the call to sack a long-serving manager who's won them a major trophy.

Don't really know why West Ham are dragging their feet. Everton at home next is the ideal fixture to give to a new manager for a probable win and instant boost in mood and momentum.

I'm quite vocal in my thinking that the manager going is the right course of action, but it's not the only one.

The problem I have is there's simply nothing. 16 days into the window and still no signing. We're the worst side in the league at signing players. Absolutely no debate about that. With the contract situation we've allowed the manifest we're going to probably need 10 permanent signings in in 2023, whether that's now or the summer. We've managed 10 permanent signings in 3 years. Our XI at Forest contained 10 players who were here in 2020. I think our fans are so conditioned by it that they aren't as angry as they should be. They're conditioned to things not getting done in the market. I'm frankly fed up of it. There should've been 3 signings in this month minimum. There'll be the usual "there's still time" but I've seen how we operate, we are not a club that will churn 3 signings out in the last two weeks. It will be one permanent (probably Kristiansen from Copenhagen) and a loanee like Boga. Everything about it is so half-hearted.

I'm increasingly sceptical of this ownership. I think there was a degree of inevitability about him being a bit out of his depth due to the nature of how he became owner in the first place, but I do think the emotional attachment some have is clouding their vision of what's actually happening. I don't think he means badly which is why I've not fully turned on him yet, but I think he lacks the knowhow and he's put his faith in people who are frankly not up to it. Our director of football should be out the door but I think he's as safe as anybody. Rodgers as well, he's embarrassing the club on a weekly basis, with our pathetic, insipid, limp performances but the amount of times he deflects it all back at the club. Regardless of if he's right or if he's wrong, it's a bad look for us and it should've been reigned it. But it hasn't been, why? Because he knows he can get away with it.

Maddison might carry us out of the shit this season but I think my hopes about us going forward are as low as they've been in literally 15 years. People talking about competing for Europe again. I think they're in absolute cuckooland sadly. It can happen again but he needs to learn very quickly, and there are no signs of it what so ever.

[Stan]

Sticking my neck on the line - going for Leicester, Southampton & Bournemouth to drop.

It'll be painful seeing us go down as it is, but then seeing Forest stay up in their first season will be the sickest thing.. Embarrassing actually. 'Shut the club down' levels of disgusting. 

[RandoEFC+]

At this point I'll be literally amazed if Leicester drop and we don't. I don't want to downplay how many factors are working against Leicester but for me I just think that's an incredible prediction. Every criticism you can level at Leicester, a worse version is true of Everton.

Southampton were absolutely shite on Saturday. They should drop along with Bournemouth then Forest are the only other team I can see being shitter than us.

[OrangeKhrush]

14 minutes ago, Stan said:

Sticking my neck on the line - going for Leicester, Southampton & Bournemouth to drop.

It'll be painful seeing us go down as it is, but then seeing Forest stay up in their first season will be the sickest thing.. Embarrassing actually. 'Shut the club down' levels of disgusting. 

I think you are being cynical,  when you get a few players back you have the ability to win a few games.   It is a difficult place to be and it is an emotional rollercoaster,  all things considered I think Everton are in terrible state,  the atmosphere is toxic and the players must hate every moment playing at Goodison.    

I think it is a little to late for a new manager now,  If they were hellbent on a change,  Lampard had to get sacked before the world cup giving recruitment  time with the new manager to try get deals over the line,  bring a new man in now is just a recipe for disaster,  I feel this is the case for Leicester and West Ham. 

[Stan]

Forgot that I did this predictor the other day. think it was before the Forest game

 

 

Incredible tight at the bottom. Especially as the final day fixtures are:

Leicester vs West Ham
Everton vs Bournemouth
Crystal Palace vs Nottm Forest

[Dan+]

Leicester, Everton and Bournemouth would be my three now.

[Rick]

Bournemouth, Southampton & Everton I reckon unless Everton sack Lampard asap. Leeds just about scraping survival again, but only if the new lad Rutter settles quickly. Think Leicester & West Ham will pick up enough points to be safe going into the final 2-3 games.