The Relegation Battle 2023

[Dan+]

Everton win another game and they're basically out of it I think. That would mean either Leeds win both of their games or we win two of ours - both extremely unlikely.

I'm going to continue to write us off as hopeless unless I'm presented with evidence to the contrary.

[Stan]

Think it's Leeds down with ourselves and Southampton. Sorry @Lucas. I think Everton get enough vs Wolves or Bournemouth..

 

[Rick]

I could definitely see Leeds beating West Ham, but I think a Leicester are pretty fucked having Newcastle next. 

[Lucas]

44 minutes ago, Stan said:

Think it's Leeds down with ourselves and Southampton. Sorry @Lucas. I think Everton get enough vs Wolves or Bournemouth..

 

No thats fair enough, we've not exactly put in many performances to shout about and we'll definitely be favourites to drop as it stands.

We need to hope Forest get one point from two games and we get four from West Ham/Spurs and nick it on GD.

[Dave]

I think Forest will lose there last two games which means Everton and Leeds need one win from two winnable fixtures. I think they'll both do it.

It's been a fantastic ride for Leicester City but I think this is the end now. They're going to have to really carefully structure a rebuild this summer too. Everybody is going to look at Burnley and say "That's how to do it" without recognising it isn't easy to do it. It wouldn't surprise me if they start by doing something odd like appointing Nigel Pearson.

[RandoEFC+]

On 09/05/2023 at 09:41, RandoEFC said:

Southampton 99.0% (+1.4%)

Leeds 71.4% (+7.8%)

Leicester 69.2% (+34.4%)

Nottm Forest 36.4% (-16.0%)

Everton 25.0% (-32.9%)

Updated chances based on bookies' odds.

Southampton 100.0% (+1.0%)

Leicester 87.5% (+16.1%)

Leeds 66.7% (-4.7%)

Nottm Forest 25% (-11.4%)

Everton 20.0% (-5.0%)

 

Southampton's relegation is mathematically confirmed this weekend following defeat to Fulham. Of the "two from four" group that has existed for a few weeks now, it's another bad weekend for Leicester, who were beaten soundly at home to Liverpool and saw a couple of their rivals steal a point on them. With the least points of the four and Newcastle away to come next weekend, Leicester's chances are reflected by their 12.5% chance of survival.

Leeds managed to eek the door back open by a few more millimetres with a battling draw at home to Newcastle, but they remain in the bottom three and odds-on to go down. Nottm Forest had the best weekend, reducing their chance of relegation to just 1 in 4 by securing a point at Stamford Bridge, a game that the bookies had down as a likely defeat for them.

Despite losing this weekend, Everton see a slight boost to their survival chances as their rivals remained winless on the weekend they had to face Manchester City. Despite sitting below Forest, Everton are the favourites to stay up courtesy of their remaining fixtures against Wolves and Bournemouth offering a gentler (on paper) end to the campaign than those faced by their rivals.

[Michael]

1 hour ago, The Palace Fan said:

I think Forest will lose there last two games which means Everton and Leeds need one win from two winnable fixtures. I think they'll both do it.

It's been a fantastic ride for Leicester City but I think this is the end now. They're going to have to really carefully structure a rebuild this summer too. Everybody is going to look at Burnley and say "That's how to do it" without recognising it isn't easy to do it. It wouldn't surprise me if they start by doing something odd like appointing Nigel Pearson.

Well, I said a while back now, that I thought that Southampton, Leicester City and Notts Forest will be the teams to be relegated. Southampton are now officially relegated, while Leicester City look like they will almost certainly join them in the Championship, especially after yesterday's result. Notts Forest have since picked up a couple of wins, since giving my opinion on them being the 3rd team who I thought would go down over a month ago. But now I think it's between them and Leeds United. Although it's very possible that Forest lose both their last two matches of the season, they do currently have that 3 point cushion over Leeds and I don't necessarily see Leeds getting more than 2 points from their final two games of the season. I didn't think Everton will go down and I stick to that belief. They should be able to get enough points in their last two matches to stay up.

I do feel for Leicester City in particular as far as relegation is concerned. It was not that long ago that they won the Premier League, yet now they will almost definitely find themselves playing Championship football next season. They will no doubt see an exodus of their better players(and they do have some very good players) leave over the summer, which in many ways is a real shame.

[Lucas]

Only 13 more days to go of this shit.

It's absolutely draining.

[Dan+]

Everton or Leeds win, and Leicester lose at Newcastle, mathematically relegates us. Actually think that's a quite likely outcome.

To be honest I want it to happen. Because it helps screw Forest and it just ends this absolute charade. I really can't be arsed with a pointless extra week of this bullshit. Just get it over with as soon as possible.

Think there's half a chance that both us and Leeds drop this weekend and it ends up with nothing to play for on the final day.

Forget us in the discussion. If you didn't see the Fulham game you probably saw last night. This lot have given up. Absolutely pathetic team.

[Dan+]

Two of Leicester, Leeds and Everton drop then. One of us prevails.

For me it's Everton. Thought it a while.

[OrangeKhrush]

Everton have more steel in them even though they look like a team that is going to be fighting for survival again next season. 

[Stan]

Everton will survive. 

They'll beat Bournemouth on the final day which bears the other results redundant. 

[Michael]

I said that I felt Everton would stay up quite a long time ago now and I still feel they will stay up. I think Leeds will join Southampton and Leicester City in the Championship next season. Which would be absolutely terrible for Leeds for obvious reasons.  

[Dan+]

Remarkably a win for Everton doesn't guarantee survival - though it's highly unlikely, improbable that both us and Leeds take 6.

For us now it's basically win both games or drop. We're not winning both and I think Leeds have half a chance with Allardyce of doing that - which would relegate us.

[Dave]

A massive game for Leeds today. Playing a West Ham side whose focus is elsewhere. If they don't win to give themselves the advantage going in to game 38 then they only have themselves to blame if they go down.

Leicester are toast. Like setting 6 on the toaster ash toast. Not replacing Schmeichel, not asking Rogers after the Spurs defeat, gambling on having a weak summer transfer window to get by, not seemingly having replacements lined up for departing people, there's been a lot of bad decisions that have culminated in what has been a horrendous season.

[N U F C]

9 hours ago, Stan said:

Everton will survive. 

They'll beat Bournemouth on the final day which bears the other results redundant. 

Not if Leeds win today and next week

Personally think if Leeds win tonight they’re gonna do it.

[Stan]

8 minutes ago, N U F C said:

Not if Leeds win today and next week

Personally think if Leeds win tonight they’re gonna do it.

I can see Leeds losing today. 

[Fairy In Boots]

I think Big Sam at his old club, they’ll get something 

[RandoEFC+]

3 hours ago, Dan said:

Remarkably a win for Everton doesn't guarantee survival - though it's highly unlikely, improbable that both us and Leeds take 6.

For us now it's basically win both games or drop. We're not winning both and I think Leeds have half a chance with Allardyce of doing that - which would relegate us.

It only takes one or the other to relegate us.

[Dan+]

Leeds are basically done now. Bookies think they're even likelier to go than us.

[RandoEFC+]

Before tonight, the bookies have it at Leeds 90.9% to go, Leicester 87.5% and Everton 23.1%.

I think one of the main reasons I've been wanting it to be Southampton, Forest and Bournemouth all season is genuinely that Leeds and Leicester both have fans on here that are good lads and would be a loss to the Premier League section of the forum, as well as Everton obviously.

At least whichever two of the three that drop will have some company in the EFL section.

[Honey Honey]

Tonight Leicester took the very curious decision to hope Everton draw as opposed to take a risk that might have meant hoping for Everton to lose.

If you play chess with relegation like that and it pays off then genius. 

[Stan]

15 minutes ago, Honey Honey said:

Tonight Leicester took the very curious decision to hope Everton draw as opposed to take a risk that might have meant hoping for Everton to lose.

When you see how leaky we've been in recent games, trying to attack teams and leaving gaping holes in behind, it makes sense to set up how we did today. 

Risk to win and no doubt end up losing 4-0 or 5-0 is worse for us. In my opinion! 

[Honey Honey]

8 hours ago, Stan said:

When you see how leaky we've been in recent games, trying to attack teams and leaving gaping holes in behind, it makes sense to set up how we did today. 

Risk to win and no doubt end up losing 4-0 or 5-0 is worse for us. In my opinion! 

Making numbers up but the choice is something like this...

Park the bus 1% chance of win, 35% chance of draw, 64% chance of defeat.

Mixed approach 10% chance of win, 10% chance of draw,  80% chance of defeat.

Ultimately if you do go down because Everton win on the last day then this gamble didn't pay off.

Only time will tell if this was genius or a mistake.

[Stan]

6 minutes ago, Honey Honey said:

Making numbers up but the choice is something like this...

Park the bus 1% chance of win, 35% chance of draw, 64% chance of defeat.

Mixed approach 10% chance of win, 10% chance of draw,  80% chance of defeat.

Ultimately if you do go down because Everton win on the last day then this gamble didn't pay off.

Only time will tell if this was genius or a mistake.

I think if we go down on the last day its because of other shit shows during the season, not because we failed to win against a high-flying Newcastle chasing Champions League football.