The Relegation Battle 2023

[Dan+]

After the weekend I thought Leicester, Forest and Southampton. We've finally rolled the dice though and I think we've half a chance of an upturn. I think Smith is already creating a quite positive vibe about the club - might just be an illusion based on how negative it's been for that long and that 'literally' anything bar Rodgers would be better (and I've long thought that). But I just get a bit of a better vibe about us. It's a shame their first game is Man City away when they're hunting down top spot. That really couldn't be harder. We might still drop but our chances of survival have definitely come up a notch for me.

I think Forest will probably finish bottom.

Southampton - hard to make a case for them surviving now.

[Dr. Gonzo]

16 hours ago, LFCMike said:

They've taken 6 points away from home all season, while Liverpool have been strong at home. I'd be shocked if they got anything at Anfield

Stranger things have happened.

I refuse to have any sense of optimism for the club this season. I'm not going to be optimistic about anything Liverpool related unless FSG demonstrates it's prepared to seriously back Klopp this summer, tbh. Worst case scenario, I'm wrong and I'll be pleasantly surprised.

[Dan+]

If it wasn't such a double whammy I'd be making some sort of forfeit if Forest got anything from Anfield. You'll win 2/3-0. They're shit.

[LFCMike]

6 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Stranger things have happened.

I refuse to have any sense of optimism for the club this season. I'm not going to be optimistic about anything Liverpool related unless FSG demonstrates it's prepared to seriously back Klopp this summer, tbh. Worst case scenario, I'm wrong and I'll be pleasantly surprised.

I wouldn't say it's being optimistic thinking we'll beat Forest at home. It's just what will happen. Away from home I'd agree with you. I'm not backing us to win any of our remaining away games even though they're all against teams currently in the bottom 7.

[OrangeKhrush]

if Chelsea keep putting up the dross they may be sweating bullets yet.  they are on the border of safety but they are proper shit

[Stan]

45 minutes ago, OrangeKhrush said:

if Chelsea keep putting up the dross they may be sweating bullets yet.  they are on the border of safety but they are proper shit

As shit as they are, there needs to be insane-levels of form shown by majority of teams below them. Given that those teams have been shitter than a very shit Chelsea, it's very unlikely  

[Dan+]

On 13/04/2023 at 07:42, LFCMike said:

I wouldn't say it's being optimistic thinking we'll beat Forest at home. It's just what will happen. Away from home I'd agree with you. I'm not backing us to win any of our remaining away games even though they're all against teams currently in the bottom 7.

I heard an unbelievable stat about Liverpool yesterday - 6 games away to the bottom half so far and haven't scored a single goal.

[Dan+]

New manager bounce, is it a thing for us?

Taken the records of every manager we've had since we've come up's first 8 PL games in charge of us.

Nigel Pearson - 9 points (2-3-3)
Claudio Ranieri - 15 points (4-3-1)
Craig Shakespeare - 16 points (5-1-2)
Claude Puel - 17 points (5-2-1)
Brendan Rodgers - 16 points (5-1-2)
 

Managers very rarely start badly here. A record anything like one of those, bar maybe Pearson's (which wasn't even really a new manager bounce and probably has no relevance at all) and we'll survive I think.

I forgot how well Puel started. Bloody hell.

[Dave]

Claude Puel. What a guy. Six points guaranteed every season.

[RandoEFC+]

Going into this weekend, the theoretical percentage chance of relegation for each team. I was going to do a comparison against the percentages from before last weekend but it looks like the previous post has disappeared from Discord. These are based on the Oddschecker odds...

Southampton 85.7%

Nottm Forest 69.2%

Leicester 54.5%

Everton 30.8%

Bournemouth 26.7%

Leeds 22.2%

Wolves 6.7%

West Ham 6.7%

Crystal Palace 0.1%

[Dave]

0.1% . What a man Roy Hodgson is.

[Michael]

Bournemouth with another impressive performance, as they continue their good run of form. They are surely staying up now. I can even see them getting plenty more points in their next 3 upcoming matches against West Ham, Southampton and Leeds United. Wolves with a precious 2-0 win over Brentford today, also practically ensures their Prem status, barring a huge drop in form. They like Bournemouth are in a relatively healthy position in the league now and Wolves will be feeling very confident going into their next game against Leicester City.

Poor old Southampton lost once again today, this time it was a 2 nil home loss against Crystal Palace. The Saints still remain rooted to the bottom of the Premier League table and it really looks like they are definitely going to get relegated this season. Everton, another club at big risk of getting relegated, also lost this afternoon against Fulham. While Leicester City, who are 2nd bottom of the Premier League, are currently getting hammered 3-0 against Man City and it is not even half-time yet. City scored their 3 goals after only 25 minutes and there looks like there will be plenty of more goals for City in this match. 

Notts Forest and Leeds United who have yet to play their fixtures this weekend, are the other 2 clubs in real danger of going down. I still have a strong feeling that Notts Forest will get relegated alongside Leicester City and Southampton this season. I think that Leeds and Everton will stay up by the skin of their teeth.

[Michael]

6 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

Going into this weekend, the theoretical percentage chance of relegation for each team. I was going to do a comparison against the percentages from before last weekend but it looks like the previous post has disappeared from Discord. These are based on the Oddschecker odds...

Southampton 85.7%

Nottm Forest 69.2%

Leicester 54.5%

Everton 30.8%

Bournemouth 26.7%

Leeds 22.2%

Wolves 6.7%

West Ham 6.7%

Crystal Palace 0.1%

A bit surprised about Bournemouth being given such a big percentage to go down compared to some of the other sides listed. Anyone who has watched Bournemouth play over the past couple of months will know that they are not playing like a relegation threatened side, instead, they are playing more like a top 10 side. I think that Crystal Palace's 0.1% chance of getting relegated has now changed to almost 0%, after Palace defeated Southampton today.

[Lucas]

4 wins from 6 for Bournemouth. They were looking certs before that Liverpool game. The confidence they got from that has completely turned their season.

I can't see them dropping now they sit on 33pts. That win today was a hammer blow for the rest of us down there.

Just waiting for the inevitable Forest 1-0 win tomorrow whilst United have so many players out as well.

[Stan]

3 from 5 now. Bournemouth, Wolves and Palace have sufficiently pulled away now. 

 

Southampton are down. It's between us, Forest, Leeds, Everton and West Ham to join them. 

[Michael]

7 minutes ago, Stan said:

3 from 5 now. Bournemouth, Wolves and Palace have sufficiently pulled away now. 

 

Southampton are down. It's between us, Forest, Leeds, Everton and West Ham to join them. 

I don't think West Ham are in as much trouble as the other sides that you listed. They have more games left than all the other bottom half sides in the table. They've only played 29 matches compared to the 30 and 31 games that the other sides down at the bottom have played. Their squad also looks stronger than the other sides near the bottom in my humble opinion. I am sure they'll grind out enough points to add to the 30 points that they already have, in their 9 remaining matches.

Southampton and no offence Leicester City look done for me. They're both at the bottom of the table and their form continues to be horrendous. Forest, Everton and Leeds are likely to be the 3rd side going, but I will stick with what my instincts said a few weeks back, that Forest will get relegated alongside Southampton and Leicester City. Forest also look to me to have a tougher upcoming fixture list compared to Everton or Leeds. Plenty of tough ties left for all the sides mentioned, but Forest's run in does look more difficult than most. Either way, it looks like it's going to be a very interesting battle to avoid relegation.

[RandoEFC+]

The way I look at it, any team that has to worry about whether they're finishing ahead of Forest is down. They're atrocious.

[Lucas]

So I put my negative head on tonight and thought I'd have a go at predicting the remaining games and where the table lies.

This may sound a pretty bold prediction but I have a funny feeling Leicester win their next three in a row.

I see them edging Wolves at home next week with the new manager bounce, I think they'll ride that wave and beat us midweek at Elland Road because they are a bogey side for us and we're shit in these types of games at home, and I see them beating Everton at home on Monday Night Football.

In the blink of an eye, they could be safe. Course, might not pan out like that but I'm going to call that now.

Based on what I predicted, I have us and Everton going down to goal difference with Saints and Forest down.

Eeekk.

[Dan+]

Said all season Bournemouth were ridiculously written off. I've not liked this whole notion that Bournemouth were doomed and we were going to come good - convinced that's got into the heads of both squads. They've been better than us from the word go.

This weekend was always likely to be a bad one for us. I just cannot stress how angry I am at this fucking idiotic 'leadership' at the club. Even when they finally realised the cunt was taking us down they sabotage us for another two games, one crucially against Bournemouth and throw the new bloke into the bull ring with his hands tied behind his back for his opener.

That's our fourth run this season of 4 or more defeats in a row.

Palace are safe. Bournemouth and Wolves are basically safe bar a collapse. Southampton are definitely going.

So it's two from Leicester, Leeds, Everton, Forest and West Ham. We play three of the other four.

Can barely even call it with us now. You just can't say for sure what we'll be like. Beat Wolves and I fancy us to go and beat the next two as well. Draw and it's still in the balance. Lose and I think we're done.

[Dan+]

8 hours ago, Lucas said:

So I put my negative head on tonight and thought I'd have a go at predicting the remaining games and where the table lies.

This may sound a pretty bold prediction but I have a funny feeling Leicester win their next three in a row.

I see them edging Wolves at home next week with the new manager bounce, I think they'll ride that wave and beat us midweek at Elland Road because they are a bogey side for us and we're shit in these types of games at home, and I see them beating Everton at home on Monday Night Football.

In the blink of an eye, they could be safe. Course, might not pan out like that but I'm going to call that now.

Based on what I predicted, I have us and Everton going down to goal difference with Saints and Forest down.

Eeekk.

I think it's entirely plausible for us. We're an extremely streaky team and I think of the teams our named, our ceiling is the highest. We've been the biggest underperformers by a mile in the league, possibly in Europe to be honest. I don't think it gets enough attention how much we've dropped off. We've not finished in the bottom half since 2017.

[Bluebird Hewitt]

20 hours ago, Lucas said:

4 wins from 6 for Bournemouth. They were looking certs before that Liverpool game. The confidence they got from that has completely turned their season.

I can't see them dropping now they sit on 33pts. That win today was a hammer blow for the rest of us down there.

Just waiting for the inevitable Forest 1-0 win tomorrow whilst United have so many players out as well.

Remember though that some people think Scott Parker is a good manager. 

[Lucas]

10 hours ago, Dan said:

Said all season Bournemouth were ridiculously written off. I've not liked this whole notion that Bournemouth were doomed and we were going to come good - convinced that's got into the heads of both squads. They've been better than us from the word go.

 

On 07/02/2023 at 03:40, Dan said:

 Bournemouth will go. They've made the Craig Shakespeare error with the worst squad in the division. Bottom of the xg table. They'll finish 20th and I'm quite confident of that.

Hang on a mo, this you? 

To be fair, I wrote them off 100% back in Feb too. I don't think anyone were really considering them to go on the run they have.

[Dan+]

1 minute ago, Lucas said:

Hang on a mo, this you? 

To be fair, I wrote them off 100% back in Feb too. I don't think anyone were really considering them to go on the run they have.

To be honest I flip flop loads on these, I made the mistake of trusting the wisdom of crowds on Bournemouth around that point. I'll change that to "most of the season"  

[Lucas]

5 minutes ago, Dan said:

To be honest I flip flop loads on these, I made the mistake of trusting the wisdom of crowds on Bournemouth around that point. I'll change that to "most of the season"  

It switches every week this relegation talk to be fair. When you look ahead to games, we all assume the same results 80/90% on paper and yet every year, the shock results still happen and throw it all up in the air again.

I can see a few more yet. For example, it wouldn't surprise me if Everton caught City at an ideal time inbetween a Champions League semi and got a 1-0. 

I still wouldn't 100% write off Southampton whilst the points totals are as they are. I genuinely think goal difference will come into it somewhere.

[Stan]

5 minutes ago, Lucas said:

I still wouldn't 100% write off Southampton whilst the points totals are as they are

I hope we can for one more GW as their next game is against Arsenal