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Sack Race 2018-19


Premier League Sack Race 2018-19  

18 members have voted

  1. 1. Who is the first to leave their club?

    • Mark Hughes (Southampton)
    • Javi Gracia (Watford)
    • Roy Hodgson (Crystal Palace)
    • Rafael Benitez (Newcastle)
      0
    • Claude Puel (Leicester)
    • Chris Hughton (Brighton)
      0
    • Neil Warnock (Cardiff)
    • Other


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36 minutes ago, Cannabis said:

Jovanakovic or however you spell it is at 10/1 to go first. Buying money for me that, Fulham are getting smacked everywhere and they'll chop him I reckon.

Where you getting those odds?

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Quote

 

At this stage of last season a quarter of Premier League clubs had sacked their managers.

But fast forward 12 months and not a single top-flight boss has lost his job. Yet.

That is a particularly surprising statistic since the bottom five teams have managed only seven wins between them all season, from a combined total of 60 games.

So, as we enter an international break often referred to as "sacking season", are we witnessing unusual restraint from Premier League clubs' owners?

After 12 games of the 2017-18 campaign, Frank de Boer (Crystal Palace), Craig Shakespeare (Leicester), Ronald Koeman (Everton), Slaven Bilic (West Ham) and Tony Pulis (West Brom) had all paid the price for underwhelming starts to the season.

While that might seem like a lot, it was not a record. In three other Premier League seasons there had been six sackings by the end of November.

Seasons with most upheaval by end of November

image.png

Factoring in pre-season managerial changes in the summer, four clubs did change their manager for the 2018-19 campaign: Chelsea, West Ham, Everton and Arsenal.

In each of the past three seasons there has been an overall total of 13 changes per campaign, while the lowest tally during the past decade came when just nine changes were made in 2009-10.

We could be on for a lower total this season.

Managerial changes by season in Premier League

image.png

Some bookmakers are even offering odds of 50-1 on there being no Premier League managers sacked this campaign.

But a look at the results suggests that is highly unlikely...

At the bottom of the Premier League table, Southampton, Huddersfield and Fulham have each managed just one win.

Fulham, having spent over £100m on new players this summer, are bottom after conceding a league-high 31 goals.

They have managed five points from their 12 games, at an average of 0.42 points per match.

One place in the table above them, Huddersfield have seven points from 12 matches, at an average of 0.58 points per match.

And above them, Cardiff, Southampton and Crystal Palace are averaging 0.66 points per match.

Over the past five years, the lowest points-per-game average returned by a club who just stayed up, finishing fourth from bottom, is 0.94.

It suggests major improvements are required to survive - whether that is inspired by the existing managers or their replacements.

_104253790_8e551287-f00c-4959-bbe5-d8662

Although, if results continue as they are, the magic 40-point mark for survival can be nearly halved. The struggling sides' current points returns mean 25 points could be enough to stay up.

The October and November international breaks are notoriously popular times for owners to make managerial changes. Enough time has passed for poor results to cause concern, but sufficient time remains to remedy the problems.

And looking back at the past 10 Premier League seasons, in all but one instance where a club sacked a manager (or he resigned after poor performance) during October and November, their average points-per-game return increased over the remainder of the season.

That's 14 sackings/resignations during that two-month period, 13 with an ultimately positive impact.

Does changing manager in October and November work?

Points per game before change (RED)

Points per game after change (GREEN)

image.png

And interestingly, only one club that has sacked their manager in October or November during the past decade has gone on to finish lower than their position at the time of the dismissal - West Brom last season.

Manager sacked Replaced by Club Season Position at time of sacking Position at end of season
Juande Ramos Harry Redknapp Tottenham 2008-09 20th 8th
Paul Hart Avram Grant Portsmouth 2009-10 20th 20th
Steve Bruce Martin O'Neill Sunderland 2011-12 16th 13th
Roberto Di Matteo Rafael Benitez Chelsea 2012-13 3rd 3rd
Mark Hughes Harry Redknapp QPR 2012-13 20th 20th
Ian Holloway Tony Pulis Crystal Palace 2013-14 19th 11th
Brendan Rodgers Jurgen Klopp Liverpool 2015-16 10th 8th
Dick Advocaat Sam Allardyce Sunderland 2015-16 19th 17th
Tim Sherwood Remi Garde Aston Villa 2015-16 20th 20th
Francesco Guidolin Paul Clement Swansea 2016-17 17th 15th
Craig Shakespeare Claude Puel Leicester 2017-18 18th 9th
Ronald Koeman Sam Allardyce Everton 2017-18 18th 8th
Slaven Bilic David Moyes West Ham 2017-18 18th 13th
Tony Pulis Alan Pardew West Brom 2017-18 17th 20th

 

They are statistics that suggest making a change works. Worrying news for the likes of Fulham manager Slavisa Jokanovic and Southampton boss Mark Hughes, the favourites with the bookmakers to be the first to lose their jobs this season.


 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/46146946

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For me, there are teams that definitely won't change their manager this season barring exceptional circumstances such as their existing manager being poached by another team. Those are Man City, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Tottenham, Everton, Bournemouth, Wolves, Burnley.

Then there are teams who I highly doubt will change their managers for a variety of reasons - Leicester, West Ham, Brighton, Huddersfield, Newcastle.

That leaves, for me, six clubs that land somewhere between unlikely and pretty likely - Man Utd, Cardiff, Fulham, Palace, Southampton, Watford.

It's easy to see a low number this year though. Feasibly it could just be say Hughes and Jokanovic and maybe one other.

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This sums up the sad culture we now live in:

Quote

Cardiff boss Neil Warnock says managers towards the bottom of the Premier League all expect to be sacked.

Warnock took charge of the Bluebirds in October 2016 and guided them to the top flight in May, becoming the first manager to win eight promotions in English football.

After losing six of their first eight league games, Cardiff have achieved two wins from their last four including victory over bottom side Fulham, who have since replaced manager Slavisa Jokanovic with Claudio Ranieri.

"All of the managers down the bottom end know that could easily be around the corner," said Warnock of Jokanovic's sacking.

Cardiff boss Neil Warnock describes football as a 'horrible industry' and claims all managers expect to get the sack 'at some stage.'

Neil Warnock says managers losing their jobs is the part of football he "detests"

"We all know that's the industry.

"[Cardiff owner] Vincent [Tan] tells me every time I see him how many managers and agents are ringing him up telling him to sack me and bring in this manager or that manager, and they're all great managers they want him to appoint.

"When I do eventually leave, whenever that is, it will be interesting to see how the club moves forward."

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On 13/11/2018 at 17:06, RandoEFC said:

For me, there are teams that definitely won't change their manager this season barring exceptional circumstances such as their existing manager being poached by another team. Those are Man City, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Tottenham, Everton, Bournemouth, Wolves, Burnley.

Then there are teams who I highly doubt will change their managers for a variety of reasons - Leicester, West Ham, Brighton, Huddersfield, Newcastle.

That leaves, for me, six clubs that land somewhere between unlikely and pretty likely - Man Utd, Cardiff, Fulham, Palace, Southampton, Watford.

It's easy to see a low number this year though. Feasibly it could just be say Hughes and Jokanovic and maybe one other.

Three down... Watford looks unlikely now though. Puel looks likely to be the next best bet.

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I don't actually see anyone else getting sacked between now and the rest of the season the only ones that could go for me are Wagner at Huddersfield and Puel at Leicester I think they'll be there till the end of the season.

An outsider if he keeps on this losing run could be Marco Silva but I'll be very surprised if he went he has a decent fixture list coming up to get a few wins.

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16 hours ago, Kyletoonfan said:

I don't actually see anyone else getting sacked between now and the rest of the season the only ones that could go for me are Wagner at Huddersfield and Puel at Leicester I think they'll be there till the end of the season.

An outsider if he keeps on this losing run could be Marco Silva but I'll be very surprised if he went he has a decent fixture list coming up to get a few wins.

It will only be Marco Silva if we slump so badly we end up in serious danger of relegation.

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4 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

It will only be Marco Silva if we slump so badly we end up in serious danger of relegation.

I agree I think it's very unlikely but so far I think he's overrated. He had a decent start at Everton but still to many draws at the beginning. Your currently below where Allardyce got you last season. Long way to go though. 

At Hull he took over when they were 3 points away from getting out of the drop zone. He got them out but they went back in and went down by 6 points. At Watford he made a great start they were in amongst the top 6. But they fell away dramatically and he got sacked. At the moment the jury is definitely still out on him. 

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17 minutes ago, Kyletoonfan said:

I agree I think it's very unlikely but so far I think he's overrated. He had a decent start at Everton but still to many draws at the beginning. Your currently below where Allardyce got you last season. Long way to go though. 

At Hull he took over when they were 3 points away from getting out of the drop zone. He got them out but they went back in and went down by 6 points. At Watford he made a great start they were in amongst the top 6. But they fell away dramatically and he got sacked. At the moment the jury is definitely still out on him. 

The jury is certainly still out. Whether we will succeed under him is unknown. However, something that isn't unknown is the fact that chopping and changing managers at every opportunity for the last 4 years or so has got us nowhere.

These might be just excuses but got to factor in he's dealing with a squad that's been assembled, mostly badly, by 5 different managers, with contributions from 2 directors of football, and it shows in the lack of quality outside the first eleven. He's also trying to implement a progressive style of play to a team that was doing the polar opposite of that for the last two seasons, especially early 2018 under Allardyce. These are two major factors which at least in my eyes, buy him plenty of time, and while he may turn out to be rubbish in the end, the club have to give him time to know for sure.

I mentioned this in another thread but I've read recently that Spurs only had one more point than we currently have after the same number of games in Pochettino's first season, and Liverpool's first season under Klopp they only finished 8th. Like these two managers, Silva has been brought in to do something over the course of five years, not five months, so judging him this soon would be silly on that basis.

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3 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

The jury is certainly still out. Whether we will succeed under him is unknown. However, something that isn't unknown is the fact that chopping and changing managers at every opportunity for the last 4 years or so has got us nowhere.

These might be just excuses but got to factor in he's dealing with a squad that's been assembled, mostly badly, by 5 different managers, with contributions from 2 directors of football, and it shows in the lack of quality outside the first eleven. He's also trying to implement a progressive style of play to a team that was doing the polar opposite of that for the last two seasons, especially early 2018 under Allardyce. These are two major factors which at least in my eyes, buy him plenty of time, and while he may turn out to be rubbish in the end, the club have to give him time to know for sure.

I mentioned this in another thread but I've read recently that Spurs only had one more point than we currently have after the same number of games in Pochettino's first season, and Liverpool's first season under Klopp they only finished 8th. Like these two managers, Silva has been brought in to do something over the course of five years, not five months, so judging him this soon would be silly on that basis.

It would be silly. I do think though foreign managers in general get longer and fans seem to have more patient with them. 

Yeah he did assemble an unbalanced squad and one which wasn't great but I do think they should be doing a bit better and didn't he spend a lot in his first summer. Who knows how many of those signings are is. That's a fair comment on Klopp and Poch in klopps especially he had a better reputation won 2 titles with Dortmund maybe that helps giving him a bit more time. I'm not convinced by him with his side's defensively. 

You looked like you were making progress after the displays at Chelsea and Liverpool but home games against Watford and Newcastle and them performances were awful not great at Brighton either though you were a tad unlucky not to get a draw out of that 1.

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2 minutes ago, Kyletoonfan said:

It would be silly. I do think though foreign managers in general get longer and fans seem to have more patient with them. 

Yeah he did assemble an unbalanced squad and one which wasn't great but I do think they should be doing a bit better and didn't he spend a lot in his first summer. Who knows how many of those signings are is. That's a fair comment on Klopp and Poch in klopps especially he had a better reputation won 2 titles with Dortmund maybe that helps giving him a bit more time. I'm not convinced by him with his side's defensively. 

You looked like you were making progress after the displays at Chelsea and Liverpool but home games against Watford and Newcastle and them performances were awful not great at Brighton either though you were a tad unlucky not to get a draw out of that 1.

Yeah we've been shite since losing at Anfield. I didn't think so at first but a lot of people theorised that the manner of that defeat affected the players mentally. If so, it just goes to show what a mentally weak dressing room we have, which doesn't surprise me given our performances in big games going back even as far as Moyes. 

Again though, that has been a recurring theme under several managers, so the finger has to be pointed at the players and their character. This is another thing that takes multiple transfer windows and at least a couple of years to faze out.

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2 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

Yeah we've been shite since losing at Anfield. I didn't think so at first but a lot of people theorised that the manner of that defeat affected the players mentally. If so, it just goes to show what a mentally weak dressing room we have, which doesn't surprise me given our performances in big games going back even as far as Moyes. 

Again though, that has been a recurring theme under several managers, so the finger has to be pointed at the players and their character. This is another thing that takes multiple transfer windows and at least a couple of years to faze out.

If it's a hangover because of that then yes that is weak. They should have been encouraged you held your own. Gomes was denied by a great save from Allison you had a few other big chances to. Excellent performance at Chelsea to them 2 displays should have been a catalyst to turn your season for the better not the worst. 

He won't be sacked barring a total collapse as you say. They wanted him when he was at Watford and now they have got him on a 6 year deal. But pressure on for Bournemouth at home this weekend they ain't great away from home. Their on poor form to ideal opportunity you would think for Everton to get back to winning ways. I would like to see more of Lookman. 

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9 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

 

I mentioned this in another thread but I've read recently that Spurs only had one more point than we currently have after the same number of games in Pochettino's first season, and Liverpool's first season under Klopp they only finished 8th. Like these two managers, Silva has been brought in to do something over the course of five years, not five months, so judging him this soon would be silly on that basis.

34 points Spurs had after 21 games under Pochettino.

I'm also not sure the Klopp comparison is relevant. He took over in October and prioritised the Europa League that season

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6 minutes ago, LFCMike said:

34 points Spurs had after 21 games under Pochettino.

I'm also not sure the Klopp comparison is relevant. He took over in October and prioritised the Europa League that season

Only what I've heard on podcasts. Arguably neither are relevant because we're significantly shitter than either of the Spurs or Liverpool teams they inherited and have been since Martinez' first season.

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I think Puel's got the season now barring a complete collapse in form which is granted, not impossible but I do think performances like the one at Liverpool seem to be good enough to keep us out of any serious talk of danger. I do expect us to change him in the summer though.

I think after what happened to us it's easy for people to forget that the manager's job is probably quite safe at the minute bar the threat of relegation. I think our owners have bigger priorities, which I can understand.

Leuven for example, their other club are bottom of their league despite having the biggest budget and Pearson's not looking like getting the boot any time soon. On that subject what a shame it is seeing him like that. Gutted personally as I do think he doesn't get anywhere near the credit he deserves for the job he did here but my god it's gone pear shaped for him afterwards.

I had a bit of money a couple of weeks ago on no manager to get the sack at 20/1. Silva worries me a little though.

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