Brazil: Into the Abyss?

[Kowabunga]

Jair Bolsonaro: Brazil's far-right presidential hopeful stabbed at campaign rally

"Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right candidate who is leading the polls in Brazil’s presidential race, is in a serious condition after being stabbed while campaigning just a month before the election. Bolsonaro was rushed to the Santa Casa de Misericórdia hospital in the town of Juiz de Fora, about 125 miles (200km) north of Rio de Janeiro, where a spokeswoman confirmed he was in surgery."

This is bound to further polarize the electorate and boost the chances of Bolsonaro himself.

Meanwhile Lula campaigns from prison, his protegee Haddad is criminally accused of charges of corruption and Lula masks sell like hot cakes.

[Azeem]

Why is this not being given due attention in international media as it should be ?

[Dr. Gonzo]

8 hours ago, Devon Von Devon said:

Why is this not being given due attention in international media as it should be ?

It was headline news on the BBC? But generally speaking, Brazil probably should get a lot more coverage.

I’m not going to pretend I know anything more  about Brazilian politics other than Lula and his party’s corruption. I’m surprised he can get such support from prison.

[Azeem]

12 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

It was headline news on the BBC? But generally speaking, Brazil probably should get a lot more coverage.

I’m not going to pretend I know anything more  about Brazilian politics other than Lula and his party’s corruption. I’m surprised he can get such support from prison.

Considering that Brazil is the biggest and the most important country in South America its not getting the coverage it should.

There is lot more discussions on Trupm's tweets than on this issue.  

[SirBalon]

Jair Bolsonaro is an extremist far-right ideologist... It looks like in Brazil the middle ground doesn't exist.  Infact, does it exist anywhere now?

[Dr. Gonzo]

9 hours ago, Devon Von Devon said:

Considering that Brazil is the biggest and the most important country in South America its not getting the coverage it should.

There is lot more discussions on Trupm's tweets than on this issue.  

Trump is the US president and the US has it’s fingers in everything, so him acting erratic is obviously going to get coverage. Especially from western media sources.

Having said that, Brazil definitely should be getting more coverage.

[Honey Honey]

On 08/09/2018 at 08:58, Devon Von Devon said:

Why is this not being given due attention in international media as it should be ?

Hardly anyone on here gives a shit. There's your replicable answer for that.

[Fairy In Boots]

On 09/09/2018 at 17:21, Harvsky said:

Hardly anyone on here gives a shit. There's your replicable answer for that.

It’s got way more significance in the Latin world no doubt, I personally have no clue or comment about Brazilian politics other that “whoever is responsible for deforestation of the Amazon is a cocksucker” 

[Inverted]

Most times in my life when I've ever seen Brazil get some attention it was as part of the broader issue of developments in the BRICS countries. Lula's arrest got a decent chunk of coverage, but mostly without enough background for most people (well, me at least) to really get what was going on.

I guess the Bolsonaro phenomenon is interesting in terms of a trend for BRICS to not only fail to liberalise politically, but even to regress - Xi tightening his grip on power in China, Russia being arguably more hostile to opposition than ever, India going towards Hindu populism after Singh's more cosmopolitan leadership. I'd love to read something in more detail comparing these developments.

[Guest]

Honestly no Latin state gets the attention it should. Venezuela is a prime example of this. All of South America is united and essentially seperated from the rest of the world. I don't give a flying fuck about what occurs in the USA, where as I do care about what happens in Venezuela or Brazil.

[Kowabunga]

9 hours ago, Blue said:

Honestly no Latin state gets the attention it should. Venezuela is a prime example of this. All of South America is united and essentially seperated from the rest of the world. I don't give a flying fuck about what occurs in the USA, where as I do care about what happens in Venezuela or Brazil.

Siri, what is a "Latin state"?

[IgnisExcubitor]

23 hours ago, Inverted said:

India going towards Hindu populism after Singh's more cosmopolitan leadership. 

 

Don't want to derail this thread but in short. Singh oversaw probably the most corrupt government in our history, with scams worth hundreds of millions happening in almost all fields. There is a debate about his own involvement, with many people initially claiming that he was unaware of the whole scams but increasingly people are seeing otherwise. He was (to a large extent still is) like most of his fellow Congress party politicians a puppet of the powerful Gandhi(not related to Mohandas Gandhi) family.

As for the current government and PM. I am no fan, but the argument of soft/hard Hinduism (whatever the fuck that is considering Hinduism supports other religions and even atheism) is usually wrong. For the all the violence and cultural shift that is talked about in the media (especially the absolute wrong reporting in Gaurdian, Nyt, etc) on the grounds the matters are different. These publications refuse to talk about the violence suffered by the majority and hence a picture is created about the so called rise of the Hindu right. We have a history of riots (perpetuated by all sides), and seeing only one kind of violence is plain wrong. You could, if you are interested in a balanced opinion, read about right wing activists  getting killed by communists in Kerala or by TMC in West Bengal, terror of cow smugglers, Malda, etc. 

Also, the supposedly Hindu government continues to spend rather lavishly on schemes for Muslim minorities and adding new schemes, while refusing to revoke terrible laws like RTE, continuing to claim ownership of Hindu temples and their money while keeping Church and Mosques independent, etc. 

The current government is continuation of the last government and its daft socialist policies, minus the scams. But knowing how politicians are, I wonder how long before the corruption part arises out of BJP, as well. 

[Kowabunga]

On 19/09/2018 at 12:39, IgnisExcubitor said:

 

Don't want to derail this thread but in short. Singh oversaw probably the most corrupt government in our history, with scams worth hundreds of millions happening in almost all fields. There is a debate about his own involvement, with many people initially claiming that he was unaware of the whole scams but increasingly people are seeing otherwise. He was (to a large extent still is) like most of his fellow Congress party politicians a puppet of the powerful Gandhi(not related to Mohandas Gandhi) family.

As for the current government and PM. I am no fan, but the argument of soft/hard Hinduism (whatever the fuck that is considering Hinduism supports other religions and even atheism) is usually wrong. For the all the violence and cultural shift that is talked about in the media (especially the absolute wrong reporting in Gaurdian, Nyt, etc) on the grounds the matters are different. These publications refuse to talk about the violence suffered by the majority and hence a picture is created about the so called rise of the Hindu right. We have a history of riots (perpetuated by all sides), and seeing only one kind of violence is plain wrong. You could, if you are interested in a balanced opinion, read about right wing activists  getting killed by communists in Kerala or by TMC in West Bengal, terror of cow smugglers, Malda, etc. 

Also, the supposedly Hindu government continues to spend rather lavishly on schemes for Muslim minorities and adding new schemes, while refusing to revoke terrible laws like RTE, continuing to claim ownership of Hindu temples and their money while keeping Church and Mosques independent, etc. 

The current government is continuation of the last government and its daft socialist policies, minus the scams. But knowing how politicians are, I wonder how long before the corruption part arises out of BJP, as well. 

Besides the purely religious frame (with additional scarce mentions to left-right struggles), you don't mention ethnic/linguistic strife coming from the North with some pro-hindi cultural measures being pushed through the throats of southern states anticipating a vector of north-south division. Isn't the notion of an "hindi supremacism" of sorts (rather than "hindu") actually a matter of political discussion?

 

[Kowabunga]

Going back to Brazil the thing is becoming clearer and the Bolsonaro-Haddad showdown in the second round is looking already like the safe bet. Apparently becoming "a lula avatar" covers up for some of the shortcomings of Haddad as political candidate (even the corruption taint, lol !?). Conversely the polarization brought by Lula may hurt him eventually in the 2nd round, but, in the short term, taking into account the trade off (huge popularity gains in the poor north-east, distancing himself from Ciro), leaning toward the deepening of the Lula cult of personality looks like the choice to go for him. He has set a red line into not liberating lula from prison, though.

Hamilton Mourão, the vice-candidate running with Bolsonaro, and another former member of the military, is quite a character too. He exudes a even bigger coupist vibe than Bolsonaro. An authoritarian rewriting of the Constitution without popular vote looks fine and dandy to him.

[IgnisExcubitor]

On 25/09/2018 at 08:30, Kowabunga said:

Besides the purely religious frame (with additional scarce mentions to left-right struggles), you don't mention ethnic/linguistic strife coming from the North with some pro-hindi cultural measures being pushed through the throats of southern states anticipating a vector of north-south division. Isn't the notion of an "hindi supremacism" of sorts (rather than "hindu") actually a matter of political discussion?

 

Good point, but in most cases it was for facilitation (for people who don't speak a state's local language) rather than imposition. As a Maharashtrian (Marathi speaker) I personally give a tiny rat's behind for Hindi, but there should be one Indian language (apart from English) to identify station's names, etc to aid Indian tourists/migrants. This is what the then Railway minister suggested, and a ruckus was created in the state of Karnataka. Why? Because elections were due and the then Chief Minister of that state played the North South divide to garner votes-something that is common in regional politics. That his party incurred losses in the elections tells you everything about how people felt about it. But it gave the Dravidnadu (people in south are descendents of Dravidians) secessionists an opportunity to revive their forgotten cause. The majority don't think that way and now the issue is largely forgotten. But secessionists exit in Kashmir, Punjab, north-east, etc. so it's nothing new. 

What you can blame this ruling government for is revisionism of history. But even in that, I don't mind some things. Like erasing some  Mughal, Turkic names from important places. We had roads, stations named after genocidal monsters who murdered millions of Indians. Hopefully there will be some around Portuguese inquisition (that was as bad as Spanish inquisition). But I cannot accept unscientific views from mythology propagated or legitimised by this government, which is worrying. 

 

There are tensions on religious, ethnic and even caste lines but overall, the biggest confrontation is between the right and left ideologies. The left have lost power, and for the first time since independence it seems that they might not regain it back swiftly. I don't know about other countries but here they have been, and to a large extent still remain, 'the establishment' and hence there is outrage on selective issues which they deem important. Something we saw during 1998-2004 when the right was last in power. 

[Spike]

Brazil has been swirling around and flirting with disaster for the longest time. It's hidden in plain sight, barely anyone I spoke to knew of the trucker's strike and the military pressure exerted from it. 

[Kowabunga]

The voting is taking place today.

As expected Ronaldinho explicitly sides with Bolsonaro:

If Bolsonaro nears the 40% mark (which he seems to be poised to do) in the first round there is little Haddad can do in the second ballot, given the "rampant" antipetismo in Brazil he wouldn't be ever able to overcome. Brazil hasn't been looking good for a while, and by the looks it's going further down.

[El Profesor]

43 minutes ago, Kowabunga said:

The voting is taking place today.

As expected Ronaldinho explicitly sides with Bolsonaro:

If Bolsonaro nears the 40% mark (which he seems to be poised to do) in the first round there is little Haddad can do in the second ballot, given the "rampant" antipetismo in Brazil he wouldn't be ever able to overcome. Brazil hasn't been looking good for a while, and by the looks it's going further down.

 

Not a shock. In general, artists vote left, sportsmen vote right. Happens everywhere. I´d guess 90% of our national team votes Bolsonaro, including Neymar.

No matter who wins, in my opinion Brazil is past salvation. We have an aging population, a big ammount of debt for a third world country and our industry is shrinking. Brazil is in a trajectory of decadence, similar to countries like Egypt and Argentina. 

Bolsonaro supporters are optimistic but they´re in for a huge shock. The Executive has less power than they imagine. 

What we needed was a centrist government who´d work well with the Congress and finish the term without much turmoil and the threat of another impeachment. 

This was PSDB´s best chance to win an election since 1998 and yet they blew it due to their alliance with Michel Temer to overthrow Dilma Roussef in 2016. A good part of voters stopped seeing PSDB is an alternative to PT and in this vacuum Bolsonaro surged. Bolsonaro had a small but highly motivated following who made good use of social media to become in 1 year the 2nd most influential politician in Brazil (Lula is still 1st). Also, they didn´t really focus on the urban violence problem.

 Much like in the US with Trump, the opposition don´t realize what makes Bolsonaro popular is the fact he annoys and irritates the left. Instead of exposing his lack of knowledge to govern the country, they started to blow out of proportion everything Bolsonaro says, making him even more famous.  Worse, they transformed the elections in a referendum for and against Bolsonaro. I´m convinced a good part of opposition is more concerned with their image and social media likes than actually thinking in the best strategy to win the election.

The biggest winner of brazilian elections is definitely the United States. Bolsonaro will try to strenghten the ties with Washington and american investors should be ready for opportunities of investment in infrastructure in Brazil. I´m really curious though how our relationship with China will be. They´re our main trade partner but Bolsonaro repeteadly attacked China.

There is also the Venezuela problem. Bolsonaro is very popular in Northern Brazil, whose citizens are very unhappy with the mass immigration of venezuelans to Brazil. 

 

[Kowabunga]

23 minutes ago, El Profesor said:

 

Not a shock. In general, artists vote left, sportsmen vote right. Happens everywhere. I´d guess 90% of our national team votes Bolsonaro, including Neymar.

No matter who wins, in my opinion Brazil is past salvation. We have an aging population, a big ammount of debt for a third world country and our industry is shrinking. Brazil is in a trajectory of decadence, similar to countries like Egypt and Argentina. 

Bolsonaro supporters are optimistic but they´re in for a huge shock. The Executive has less power than they imagine. 

What we needed was a centrist government who´d work well with the Congress and finish the term without much turmoil and the threat of another impeachment. 

This was PSDB´s best chance to win an election since 1998 and yet they blew it due to their alliance with Michel Temer to overthrow Dilma Roussef in 2016. A good part of voters stopped seeing PSDB is an alternative to PT and in this vacuum Bolsonaro surged. Bolsonaro had a small but highly motivated following who made good use of social media to become in 1 year the 2nd most influential politician in Brazil (Lula is still 1st). Also, they didn´t really focus on the urban violence problem.

 Much like in the US with Trump, the opposition don´t realize what makes Bolsonaro popular is the fact he annoys and irritates the left. Instead of exposing his lack of knowledge to govern the country, they started to blow out of proportion everything Bolsonaro says, making him even more famous.  Worse, they transformed the elections in a referendum for and against Bolsonaro. I´m convinced a good part of opposition is more concerned with their image and social media likes than actually thinking in the best strategy to win the election.

The biggest winner of brazilian elections is definitely the United States. Bolsonaro will try to strenghten the ties with Washington and american investors should be ready for opportunities of investment in infrastructure in Brazil. I´m really curious though how our relationship with China will be. They´re our main trade partner but Bolsonaro repeteadly attacked China.

There is also the Venezuela problem. Bolsonaro is very popular in Northern Brazil, whose citizens are very unhappy with the mass immigration of venezuelans to Brazil. 

The US will get a presence in the base of Alcântara! Who knows if aside from the utility of launching cheap satellites that development will have deeper geopolitical trascendence with Bolsonaro...

How is the vibe in São Paulo and Rio for gubernatorial elections? Alckmin looks totally hopeless in the presidential election (in any case, I must say my brain instantly associates a tucan party mascot with corruption).

The economic measures that Bolsonaro is poised to bring can bring more inequality, a rank in which Brazil already scores awful from a global perspective.

[El Profesor]

1 hour ago, Kowabunga said:

The US will get a presence in the base of Alcântara! Who knows if aside from the utility of launching cheap satellites that development will have deeper geopolitical trascendence with Bolsonaro...

How is the vibe in São Paulo and Rio for gubernatorial elections? Alckmin looks totally hopeless in the presidential election (in any case, I must say my brain instantly associates a tucan party mascot with corruption).

The economic measures that Bolsonaro is poised to bring can bring more inequality, a rank in which Brazil already scores awful from a global perspective.

 

In my opinion, the best strategy for us is pitying China and US against each other to get the best deals, never committing too much to each one. We need both. Unfortunately, Bolsonaro will probably go as a beggar to Washington, desperate for Trump´s approval and the americans will take advantage of it. 

The relationship with Venezuela is another concern. I expect a very bad relationship between Bolsonaro and Maduro.

In Rio, an outsider is leading so far, Wilson Witzel. He was a federal judge and he is a Bolsonaro ally. 

In São Paulo, I think it will go to the 2nd round between Paulo Skaf and João Dória. Dória also presents himself as an outsider to politics, despite being the former mayor of São Paulo. I´d say he´s the favorite to win, since PSDB always win in São Paulo. 

I´m waiting to see how the Congress will shape. It looks like there will a lot of new faces in Brasília. PT will take hit, and Bolsonaro probably will have a stronger base than antecipated, even though very far from majority.

About his economy policy, Bolsonaro said many times he is not interested in economy and that he knows nothing about it.  Paulo Guedes, at least in the beginning of his government, will be given free reign. 

 

[Kowabunga]

37 minutes ago, El Profesor said:

 

In my opinion, the best strategy for us is pitying China and US against each other to get the best deals, never committing too much to each one. We need both. Unfortunately, Bolsonaro will probably go as a beggar to Washington, desperate for Trump´s approval and the americans will take advantage of it. 

The relationship with Venezuela is another concern. I expect a very bad relationship between Bolsonaro and Maduro.

In Rio, an outsider is leading so far, Wilson Witzel. He was a federal judge and he is a Bolsonaro ally. 

In São Paulo, I think it will go to the 2nd round between Paulo Skaf and João Dória. Dória also presents himself as an outsider to politics, despite being the former mayor of São Paulo. I´d say he´s the favorite to win, since PSDB always win in São Paulo. 

I´m waiting to see how the Congress will shape. It looks like there will a lot of new faces in Brasília. PT will take hit, and Bolsonaro probably will have a stronger base than antecipated, even though very far from majority.

About his economy policy, Bolsonaro said many times he is not interested in economy and that he knows nothing about it.  Paulo Guedes, at least in the beginning of his government, will be given free reign. 

 

Regarding the future of the country I also wonder what role an extensive (and in the near future also probably heavily "automated"-"robotized") farming controlled by very few people is going to have. Brazil looks to be developing state-of-the-art farming (including cattle here), but profits for subaltern classes don't look clear here.

Besides the question of China, US or why not both, I think developing stronger South American regional institutions would have been smart for Brazil. They (rulers) kind of tried when it was the time to do, but they didn't really succeed at it by the looks of it.

 

[Berserker]

I like Bolsonaro, and i'm sure you kinda do too Ricardinho. Though i'm not sure his Liberal politics will do much good to Brazil's economy.

[SirBalon]

Bolsonaro is the only Brazilian politician of note that hasn't got any background at all of corruption from what I've been told by Brazilians.  That's a good start!

[Dr. Gonzo]

On ‎08‎/‎10‎/‎2018 at 05:35, SirBalon said:

Bolsonaro is the only Brazilian politician of note that hasn't got any background at all of corruption from what I've been told by Brazilians.  That's a good start!

It's just about the only good thing about him.

[SirBalon]

20 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

It's just about the only good thing about him.

Taking into account so many Brazilians believe in Gérson's Law (which curiously has a football connotation considering what this forum is about), then having a politician that isn't involved in any type of corruption is a very big start.

@El Profesor