The Big Middle Eastern Thread

[6666]

At the moment it seems like the targets are only military targets. Of course that's going to be treated as being much worse than Israel killing everyone within reach.

The hope here is that maybe Israel stops thinking it can endlessly mass murder people whenever they want without a response. That's unlikely though. The US has made them feel too entitled.

Taking out as many Israeli military bases and as many IDF terrorists as possible would be the best case scenario for the region.

[OrangeKhrush]

Didnt get to much sleep,  my family in Natanya (North of Tel Aviv) are safe and on a chat group someone left his cam on over Tel Aviv to show the incoming ballistic missiles and interceptors.   

Overall the damage was not substantial at all, Nevatim was hit but the assets were moved and the ordinances are kept underground.   No deaths on the Israeli front however one fatality in Jericho and 5 Iranians were killed with 12 critically injured when a missile exploded on the launcher.

Quite a few videos including arrow exosphere interceptions which is quite something to see explosions at 50000ft,  there was one from a commercial plane showing the launching from isfahan.

The worst event was the terrorist attack at Jaffa train station,  two gunman killed 7 and wounded 8 before getting killed by a man in flip flops.  The persons name was lev,  he was returning from the beach and ran to the scene where he killed the terrorists.   He is an active IDF soldier on leave he also saved people in Re'im during the Nova attacks.

As for eslscalation and stakes,  the use of ballistic missiles takes it up a notch.   Russia does not use more than 2 or 3 missiles at a time, largely due to them being very expensive so the 200-400 launched makes it an unprecedented event.   Iran have threatened the US as well if there are retaliation strikes.    The bad news for Iran is that the US are packing trident missiles they have warheads that can range from conventional 2000lbs to tactical stand offs of 100 000 kilotons to apocalyptic level 20 000 megatons  the US also has a massive arsenal of ATACMs which can do some renovations.   Israel have LORAs which can go up to a 15 kiloton warhead which will do some serious damage.   If iran takes it a level up we may be talking about WW3 and Iran copping a serious home makeover.

 

[RandoEFC+]

Israel posted a tweet with footage of the missile attack and the caption "This is not normal." No fucking shit, shameless cunts. 

I feel for the civilians in Israel but Benjamin Netanyahu and his government deserve to burn in perpetuity in the deepest pits of hell. Now their own citizens are under threat. The people responsible for perpetuating this conflict, be they Hamas, Hezbollah or Israeli ministers, deserve everything that comes their way. I'm not having Israel painting themselves as the righteous or civilised ones though. 

[Toinho]

2 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

Israel posted a tweet with footage of the missile attack and the caption "This is not normal." No fucking shit, shameless cunts. 

I feel for the civilians in Israel but Benjamin Netanyahu and his government deserve to burn in perpetuity in the deepest pits of hell. Now their own citizens are under threat. The people responsible for perpetuating this conflict, be they Hamas, Hezbollah or Israeli ministers, deserve everything that comes their way. I'm not having Israel painting themselves as the righteous or civilised ones though. 

Yet I am sure all our western media will be painting them as righteous or civilised. I am fearing a WW3 here.

[Rucksackfranzose]

2 hours ago, OrangeKhrush said:

Didnt get to much sleep,  my family in Natanya (North of Tel Aviv) are safe and on a chat group someone left his cam on over Tel Aviv to show the incoming ballistic missiles and interceptors.   

Overall the damage was not substantial at all, Nevatim was hit but the assets were moved and the ordinances are kept underground.   No deaths on the Israeli front however one fatality in Jericho and 5 Iranians were killed with 12 critically injured when a missile exploded on the launcher.

Quite a few videos including arrow exosphere interceptions which is quite something to see explosions at 50000ft,  there was one from a commercial plane showing the launching from isfahan.

The worst event was the terrorist attack at Jaffa train station,  two gunman killed 7 and wounded 8 before getting killed by a man in flip flops.  The persons name was lev,  he was returning from the beach and ran to the scene where he killed the terrorists.   He is an active IDF soldier on leave he also saved people in Re'im during the Nova attacks.

As for eslscalation and stakes,  the use of ballistic missiles takes it up a notch.   Russia does not use more than 2 or 3 missiles at a time, largely due to them being very expensive so the 200-400 launched makes it an unprecedented event.   Iran have threatened the US as well if there are retaliation strikes.    The bad news for Iran is that the US are packing trident missiles they have warheads that can range from conventional 2000lbs to tactical stand offs of 100 000 kilotons to apocalyptic level 20 000 megatons  the US also has a massive arsenal of ATACMs which can do some renovations.   Israel have LORAs which can go up to a 15 kiloton warhead which will do some serious damage.   If iran takes it a level up we may be talking about WW3 and Iran copping a serious home makeover.

 

Supposing these gunmen were Palestine that's no terrorism yet simply guerilla war tactics. There is no war rule saying only the war combattant you didn't side with may lose civilian lifes without it being a terror act.

On a sidenote somebody like you, who defended IDF bombing civilists waiting for grapping for meal from an International aid convoy  the words there were Hamas fighters amongst them, shouldn't dismiss the possibility that there were IDF soldiers or civil employees between the 7 deads.

 

Edited Wednesday at 12:37 by Rucksackfranzose

[RandoEFC+]

47 minutes ago, Toinho said:

Yet I am sure all our western media will be painting them as righteous or civilised. I am fearing a WW3 here.

I hope not but I can totally imagine the West justifying to themselves that it's alright to join a war on Israel's side after the genocide they've committed before they officially join Ukraine's war effort against Russia.

[OrangeKhrush]

Spoiler

 

It is a bit graphic

Edited Wednesday at 13:22 by OrangeKhrush

[OrangeKhrush]

51 minutes ago, Rucksackfranzose said:

Supposing these gunmen were Palestine that's no terrorism yet simply guerilla war tactics. There is no war rule saying only the war combattant you didn't side with may lose civilian lifes without it being a terror act.

On a sidenote somebody like you, who defended IDF bombing civilists waiting for grapping for meal from an International aid convoy  the words there were Hamas fighters amongst them, shouldn't dismiss the possibility that there were IDF soldiers or civil employees between the 7 deads.

 

whatever you want to call It,  they were concealed in a mosque in Tel Aviv.   They came from Hebron and carried out this attack.   It is the same level of bad as the Orlando club shooting and Cali shootings,  london bombings,  stabbings in Germany,  it is all bad. 

[OrangeKhrush]

11 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

I hope not but I can totally imagine the West justifying to themselves that it's alright to join a war on Israel's side after the genocide they've committed before they officially join Ukraine's war effort against Russia.

You are in the UK,  a recent report had the UK as not capable of war so you will be fine. 

[6666]

Pro-Israelis are insane hypocrites. After cheering on and celebrating a year of mass murder (after doing the same regularly many, many times in the past) they're trying to paint everyone against them as too violent.

[6666]

4 hours ago, OrangeKhrush said:

You are in the UK,  a recent report had the UK as not capable of war so you will be fine. 

Neither is Nazi Israel without the US, UK, and Germany, etc. endlessly funding their wars.

[Dr. Gonzo]

8 hours ago, OrangeKhrush said:

You are in the UK,  a recent report had the UK as not capable of war so you will be fine. 

Think that means the UK is the opposite of fine if a third world war breaks out.

[Michael]

You are inclined to believing the Iranian professor, in that Iran at this stage are not going to back off. If Israel strike Iran with missiles in retaliation, Iran are most likely going to launch another wave of missile attacks on Israel. This has serious implications for the wider region. 

[Michael]

6 hours ago, 6666 said:

Pro-Israelis are insane hypocrites. After cheering on and celebrating a year of mass murder (after doing the same regularly many, many times in the past) they're trying to paint everyone against them as too violent.

I have to agree here, I drove past one of the Israeli protests in London. While I completely empathise with the plight of the captured Israeli hostages, the lack of care by many of these protestors towards the deaths of tens of thousands of innocent Palestinian civilians is quite shocking. This is where I question the humanity in certain people. 

[Michael]

10 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

I hope not but I can totally imagine the West justifying to themselves that it's alright to join a war on Israel's side after the genocide they've committed before they officially join Ukraine's war effort against Russia.

I think the US will definitely join the war in some form if Israel continually gets hit by missile attacks from Iran. The Americans already assisted the Israelis in shooting down the Iranian missiles. I just hope that we don't join the war on Israel's side. We didn't stop the bombings and massacres in Gaza of the innocent. I think we should stay out of a potential full scale war between Israel and Iran, we should just let them go at it themselves. 

Edited Thursday at 00:16 by Michael

[MUFC]

7 hours ago, Michael said:

I think the US will definitely join the war in some form if Israel continually gets hit by missile attacks from Iran. The Americans already assisted the Israelis in shooting down the Iranian missiles. I just hope that we don't join the war on Israel's side. We didn't stop the bombings and massacres in Gaza of the innocent. I think we should stay out of a potential full scale war between Israel and Iran, we should just let them go at it themselves. 

Not sure if its true. But people have said that the US has been targeting Iran for years and that they have bases all around the perimeter of Iran?

[OrangeKhrush]

Good video to watch to understand what is hypersonic, differences between ballistic and cruise missiles and other misinformation russia and its proxies throw out.

In summary: 

To classify as hypersonic it requires a self propelling scramjet since the US is the only country with scramjet technology which costs an eye watering trillion dollars in development it is a dead on arrival technology.

The benefit of hypersonic is a missile that can fly on it's own propulsion and thrust vector to avoid air defences similar to how cruise missiles do.

No country in the world has a definition accurate hypersonic,  all ballistic missiles including the V2 are capable of mach 5 in the propulsion phase,  when the warheads reenter the lower atmosphere they bleed off to supersonic which makes them difficult to hit but easy to predict impact zones.   

Ballistic missiles are expensive and unreliable,  the further you need them to go the smaller the payload gets to compensate with rocket fuel,  they are also inaccurate with 5km being the standard margin of error.

Cruise missiles are self propelling and even more expensive but more efficient and carry a substantially bigger warhead,  the cost of that is they are easier to intercept.

When times of india, hindustan news, wion, al Jezeera, sky, bbc tell you iran has hypersonic missiles, you can safely refute it as unreliable.

[Michael]

1 minute ago, MUFC said:

Not sure if its true. But people have said that the US has been targeting Iran for years and that they have bases all around the perimeter of Iran?

Well of course it's true that the US has bases all around the perimeter of Iran. The US has obviously been keeping an eye on Iran for decades and there have been various stand-offs between the two countries over the years. But that's nothing like what the US could start doing if a full-scale war broke out between Israel and Iran. 

If a war does break out on a large scale in that region, naturally the whole world will be affected. 32% of the world's oil production comes from that region and other countries like the Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the other Gulf states will be dragged into the conflict. Energy prices in this country are inevitably going to be affected, increasing the cost of living for everyone. 

If it was just Iran and Israel fighting this war, the odds suggest that the Iranians would win. The Iranians have a much larger population from which they can conscript people. Moreover, Iran has a larger army, a larger air force and a much larger navy than Israel. Furthermore, Iran's hypersonic missiles are a real threat and they are almost impossible for the Israeli defence systems to intercept. Israel also have sophisticated weapons, but Israel are geographically miniscule compared to Iran.

But as we all know, it's not going to be just Israel v Iran. The US and potentially other nations are going to back Israel all the way. The degree of US involvement will be the deciding factor on who would win any potential full-scale war between Israel and Iran. It's actually quite mad what's going on around the world these days. We have a full-scale war that's been going on in Ukraine over the past 2 years and now an equally brutal war could kick-off in the Middle East. 

[OrangeKhrush]

40 minutes ago, MUFC said:

Not sure if its true. But people have said that the US has been targeting Iran for years and that they have bases all around the perimeter of Iran?

Under the current admin and say since 2008 there has been a kowtowing to Iran.   There are people delusional enough to think that an ideology that requires the complete subjugation through conquest is capable of controlling.   America got it so wrong and since the disaster of the Afghan abandonment it signalled to Xi, Putler and Khomenei that the US is weak.   

The west needs to grow their balls again or face an existential crisis

[MUFC]

 

[Spike]

The bar keeps getting lower but our resident limbo champion keeps getting under.

[Dr. Gonzo]

12 hours ago, Michael said:

If it was just Iran and Israel fighting this war, the odds suggest that the Iranians would win. The Iranians have a much larger population from which they can conscript people. Moreover, Iran has a larger army, a larger air force and a much larger navy than Israel. Furthermore, Iran's hypersonic missiles are a real threat and they are almost impossible for the Israeli defence systems to intercept. Israel also have sophisticated weapons, but Israel are geographically miniscule compared to Iran.

I'm not so sure about this. Iran's got a larger population and a larger military. But I think there's a lot to consider other than just the manpower both countries have to throw at war.

First, Iran's air force is incredibly outdated. They're still flying US planes and helicopters from the 70s when Iran and the US were close allies. They've been cut off from being able to service these aircraft with the proper parts since 1979 - they've had to reverse engineer their own. Iran's air force, as a result, has had an increasingly poor safety record with each decade since the revolution. They did have buy a couple of Russia's latest and greatest fighter jets - but the evidence in the Ukraine war is that these aren't so great compared to even older western counterparts.

Second, the military of Iran is very fragmented between the traditional 3 branches of the army and the IRGC. Artesh (the army) is deliberately kept weak compared to Sepah (the IRGC) - this is by design, to prevent military coups (it is why the IRGC was founded in the first place during the Iran-Iraq war). You can think of the IRGC's relationship to Artesh as very similar to Nazi Germany's Waffen SS v. the Wehrmacht. Diehard believers in the IR's ideology vs. soldiers who were just conscripted.

Third, I think due to Iran's government's support of Palestinian a lot of people assume Iranians are fully aboard with the idea of going to war with Israel. I think doing so seriously underestimates the general feeling of resentment many Iranians have towards Palestinians due to their government spending so much of their tax money on the Palestinian's conflict while Iran is in absolute disrepair and the economy is in terrible condition. In the past years we have seen Iranians more willing to take to the streets to risk their lives, safety, and their freedom (and the freedom of their families) to demand better from their government. Are these people going to be more willing to go to war with Israel or take advantage of the chaos of war to fight back against their government while it looks at it's weakest.

Fourth, Israel's got the military tech advantage... by far.

Fifth, Israel's clearly got a pretty deep network of spies within Iran. In the past 10 years there's two high profile assassinations in Iran that we know Mossad was responsible for. We know they've got spies/double agents within the IRGC to relay information about when only IRGC members are going to be in a particular building of Syria so they are the only ones who are killed by an Israeli strike. So aside from the tech advantage, they've likely also got the military intelligence advantage over Iran.

Sixth, if the US (or other western countries) won't get involved in an actual invasion with Israel... Israel is still allies with the US/UK/France/Germany and many others. These countries, while both Iran and Israel are not "officially" at war have already acted to defend Israel. I don't think anything indicates that this would stop should official war break out.

Ultimately though, I doubt Israel or the US actually invade Iran. I could see them bombing Iran, but I can't see an actual invasion happening. Especially if Israel is alone in this war. Just look at the geography of Iran. It's not Iraq, it's not Afghanistan... it's got features of both. Big mountain ranges, large deserts... and it's also got terrain completely unlike both countries. In the provinces of Gilan and Mazandaran up in the north of the country by the Caspian Sea - an invasion would have to consider jungle warfare as well. And Tehran's a far bigger city than Baghdad, Fallujah, Kabul, or Gaza City. Urban warfare is hell, now imagine urban warfare in a massive city with a metropolitan population of over 16 million. I think Iran's geography make it incredibly difficult for any sort of invasion generally. You've got to be prepared for: mountain warfare, desert warfare, jungle warfare, and urban warfare.

I think if Israel is going to hit Iran back after this attack, they're more likely to use airstrikes and covert-ops/assassinations of IRGC officers. Maybe some members of their higher up leadership too.

13 hours ago, OrangeKhrush said:

Under the current admin and say since 2008 there has been a kowtowing to Iran.

Not really tbh. It's not like the JCPOA removed sanctions from Iran and let them be normal participants in a global economy. It simply marginally improved relations between the US and Iran, giving Iran mild sanctions relief and giving the US (and the international community) more transparency with what was going on with Iran's nuclear project. Subsequently, we've seen the JCPOA ripped up by the US... which directly led to the collapse of the so called "reformists" who seek improved relations with the west (though they're still horrible theocratic cunts). This ushered in the worst sanctions and a total collapse of Iran's economy (for ordinary people, mullahs and the IRGC still make money through black market dealings) - as well as pulling the Iran's government towards the ultra-extremist hardliners.

Subsequently, Iran's still under all the Trump-era sanctions. More sanctions were imposed due to Iran providing aid to Russia with the Ukraine war. They were meant to get $6B USD after a prisoner exchange, but their involvement with the October 7 attacks on Israel had those funds frozen.

US relations with Iran are probably at the lowest point they've been since 1979.

[6666]

Israel continuing to be evil scum against Palestinians while doing other evil scum shit against Lebanon.

 

[6666]

I know the IDF is one of the worst, most depraved terrorist organisations ever and I know they've committed endless amounts of terrible war crimes throughout their whole existence but I still don't know if I can stomach some of that being exposed in Al Jazeera's new documentary.

 

[Azeem]

IDF has failed to make any progress in Lebanonn with heavy casualties and they also bombed a Russian logistics airbase in Syria which I support lol