Russia and Ukraine

[Devil-Dick Willie]

2 hours ago, Tommy said:

How many different long tables does he have? 

It's a power move from a man well versed in games and manipulation. 

[Waylander]

13 hours ago, nudge said:

Lithuania. First mention of Lithuania in 1009, unified under one Duke in the 13th century, Kingdom of Lithuania founded in 1253. Grand Duchy of Lithuania was the largest country in Europe by the 14th century, then it was transformed into the Commonwealth of Poland and Lithuania in 1569, then got partitioned three times by the Russian Empire, Prussia, and the Habsburg Monarchy in the late 18th century. Two unsuccessful uprisings in the mid 19th century, and then finally regained independece in 1918, only to lose it thanks to  Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and be occupied first by the Germans and then given to the Soviets after the WWII. Then after ongoing partisan and dissident activities for over 40 years, the first Soviet-occupied state to announce the restitution of independence in 1990. 

Don't know too much on LIthuania though have heard about the union with Poland and of course 20th Century.

Did Napoleon try and help Lithuania, I know he was considering helping Poland though after 1812 he lost his chance.

[Azeem]

[Waylander]

13 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

But that won't help their oligarchs get access to the funds they have abroad. Having their own online settlement platform is one thing - but as the EU, Iran, Russia, and China learned when they contemplated setting up their own alternate system to allow Iranian exporters/importers to participate in business while avoiding US banks... if there's sanctions involved with being cut off from SWIFT (which there would absolutely be), then any bank that does business in the US or UK (almost all of them) won't participate with an alternate payment scheme.

The biggest reason to not cut Russia off from SWIFT is Russia would likely be unable to settle any debts/obligations owed to European countries while interest accrues and while European creditors remain unpaid until Russia settles down to a point where they can be trusted to be put back into the world of global banking. And I think for a lot of people who think mostly about finances, that's probably a wholly unacceptable position to them.

However, I think that short term economic damage is probably worth it if the alternative outright warfare.

I'm not sure this analogy works out too well. Afterall, Crimea had it's referendum after Russia had already invaded Crimea... and the results of the referendum were sort of in that "literally unbelievable" referendum result with something like 98% supporting Russian annexation (like an election for Bashar al Assad in Syria or Ilhan Aliyev in Azerbaijan, an election result designed to show overwhelming public support with a small percentage allocated to show "look we gave people a real choice").

I agree the US would never voluntarily give up one of it's states to allow the ethnic people to have sovereignty over what was once the Kingdom of Hawaii... but this would be more akin to a country invading Hawaii and holding a referendum... which I don't think the US would accept either. And realistically, I think only China would try that... but unlike Russia with Crimea, I don't think the Chinese could successfully claim that most people living in Hawaii are ethnically Chinese  (though there's definitely some Chinese and Japanese influence on the islands - but there's also a huge American/British influence on the islands as well... and the natives are ethnically Maori - or some other type of Polynesian I believe).

A better analogy, imo, is much closer to Russia. It would be that contested Nagorno-Karabagh area Azerbaijan and Armenia fought over not too long ago. That land contained the Republic of Artsakh, which is made up ethnically of Armenians but was in Azerbaijan's land. While Armenia provided (and still provides support) to the Armenians there, they never officially recognised Artsakh. But if Armenia were to suddenly claim that land and annex it into Armenia, that would be basically the same thing Russia have done with Crimea.

Ironically, there, Russia conceded that the land there is Azerbaijan's and maintains that Armenia - while having historic ties to the land - has no right to sovereignty of that land within Azerbaijan.

Interesting point on the Oligarchs potentially losing money and I guess Russia too with fuel debt payments owed by countries like Ukraine.

I would not expect any referendum from Crimea to be without interference.

I think the Russian state thinks Crimea is too strategically important and this is why the US took Hawaii as it offered a naval base in the middle of the Pacific.

Re the Maoris if anything they were more likely descended from the Hawaiians than the other way around.

The Caucasus region is a mess due to Russia using Machiavellian policies since the 90s as does Turkey now with  Azerbaijan.

Cannot see any easy solutions there.

 

 

 

[Tommy]

1 hour ago, Devil-Dick Willie said:

It's a power move from a man well versed in games and manipulation. 

I think he's also afraid of Covid. Our chancellor Olaf Scholz is on a visit to Moscow, and his entire delegation had to take four PCR tests before getting on the plane to Moscow, plus one on the plane once they arrived. Scholz refused to have the Russians take his PCR test, so he had people from the German embassy come to the plane to test him. The Russians only agreed to that if they are allowed to supervise the testing procedure. 

[nudge]

4 hours ago, Waylander said:

Don't know too much on LIthuania though have heard about the union with Poland and of course 20th Century.

Did Napoleon try and help Lithuania, I know he was considering helping Poland though after 1812 he lost his chance.

You should read more if you can find a decent book in English; our history is legit better than Game of Thrones

As for Napoleon, no, not really. He spent about 6 months in Lithuania right before marching to Moscow and then a few days on his way back retreating after Borodino and capture of Moscow. His presence initially stirred some hopes of restoring the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, but essentially, he only cared about resources for his Grande Armée.

Edited February 15, 2022 by nudge

[Waylander]

10 minutes ago, nudge said:

You should read more if you can find a decent book in English; our history is legit better than Game of Thrones

As for Napoleon, no, not really. He spent about 6 months in Lithuania right before marching to Moscow and then a few days on his way back retreating after Borodino and capture of Moscow. His presence initially stirred some hopes of restoring the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, but essentially, he only cared about resources for his Grande Armée.

I have read about a Lithuanian nationalist that was captured and viciously tortured and mutilated by the KGB in Soviet occupied Lithuania after the war. 

With Napoleon yes we was a bit Machiavellian with whom he supported. I know the Poles tried.

Edited February 15, 2022 by Waylander

[nudge]

27 minutes ago, Waylander said:

I have read about a Lithuanian nationalist that was captured and viciously tortured and mutilated by the KGB in Soviet occupied Lithuania after the war. 

With Napoleon yes we was a bit Machiavellian with whom he supported. I know the Poles tried.

If you're interested in the subject of the restoration of independence in 1990 and Soviet reaction to it, key events to read about are the Singing Revolution, the Baltic Way, the January 1991 events/Bloody Sunday, and the Massacre of Medininkai. The latter two in particular show how willing the Soviets were to allow self-determination.

[Azeem]

In my opinion the viable solution for small countries not in any cool countries club is to form a confederation to be taken seriously in world politics.

[Dr. Gonzo]

55 minutes ago, Aladdin said:

In my opinion the viable solution for small countries not in any cool countries club is to form a confederation to be taken seriously in world politics.

Isn't that just starting a cool countries club of their own?

[6666]

I just can't see the US actually going after a country that actually has serious fire power. The odds aren't heavily on their side like they usually like it. It's unlikely to lead to anything happening on US soil so that might be enough for them to love the idea of this war happening but the lack of onesidedness in their favour makes me think that waving their fist is as far as they'll go.

Edited February 15, 2022 by 6666

[Dr. Gonzo]

18 minutes ago, 6666 said:

I just can't see the US actually going after a country that actually has serious fire power. The odds aren't heavily on their side like they usually like it. It's unlikely to lead to anything happening on US soil so that might be enough for them to love the idea of this war happening but the lack of onesidedness in their favour makes me think that waving their fist is as far as they'll go.

Tbf the US hasn't really "won a war" since it last took on sides with serious firepower. Next closest thing is probably the Korean War... and that was a stalemate.

I think the fear is more that Russian expansion pulls NATO into a conflict, which wouldn't just be the US but all the NATO allied countries. And if anything happens to any NATO country or NATO troops, it doesn't really matter what public opinion on a war with Russia would be - NATO would have to respond.

[Azeem]

8 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Isn't that just starting a cool countries club of their own?

No, a confederation is similar to United Kingdom or UAE, one can remain aligned if not allied

Cool countries club is centric around a power like US Russia, they are like the cool kid with a sugar mommy who decide what is cool and not

[Azeem]

German chancellor discloses that Ukraine is willing to adopt a bill that grants special status to regions in Donbas. 

[Michael]

On 14/02/2022 at 21:22, nudge said:

Lithuania. First mention of Lithuania in 1009, unified under one Duke in the 13th century, Kingdom of Lithuania founded in 1253. Grand Duchy of Lithuania was the largest country in Europe by the 14th century, then it was transformed into the Commonwealth of Poland and Lithuania in 1569, then got partitioned three times by the Russian Empire, Prussia, and the Habsburg Monarchy in the late 18th century. Two unsuccessful uprisings in the mid 19th century, and then finally regained independece in 1918, only to lose it thanks to  Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and be occupied first by the Germans and then given to the Soviets after the WWII. Then after ongoing partisan and dissident activities for over 40 years, the first Soviet-occupied state to announce the restitution of independence in 1990. 

Interestingly enough, both the Grand Duchy of Lithuania and the Commonwealth of Poland and Lithuania encompassed all of Belarus and most of Ukraine, amongst it's territories, as well as other regions. That part of Eastern Europe( I say that, as I am now back in England, typing this on the coach) though, has always been an area where land has been fought over and where wars have been waged. Being situated between Germany and Russia, two mighty competing powers, hasn't really helped the region over the centuries.

But as far as Russia is concerned, they have to learn to let go of their former territories that gained independence from them. Ukrainians will never accept uniting with Russia again. If it wasn't for the ethnic Russians in Ukraine, arguably the whole country would be united against Russia, both Ukrainian and Russian speakers. It's no surprise that similar sentiments are shared in the Baltic states and in almost all of the former Soviet Republics. Whether Russia invades or doesn't invade Ukraine, one thing is for sure, the Ukrainians are prepared for one hell of a fight, to defend their country.

[Michael]

The 78-year-old Ukrainian grandmother preparing for a Russian invasion - BBC News

Even Ukrainian babushkas are ready to fight and die, in order to defend their country. 

Edited February 17, 2022 by Michael

[Waylander]

I see a patter with Ukraine similar with what happened with Poland over a decade ago.

Poland agrees to have US missiles on its soil.

USSR complains.

Poland and US say missiles are there to fight global war terrorism in Middle East (seriously!)

USSR responds by putting Nukes into Kaliningrad pointing at Poland.

I don't think the USSR is fussed about Polish independence or Ukraine (except Crimea and Donbas)

Their issue is defence, they have been invaded 18th Century by the Swedes, 19th Century by Napoleon and 20th Century by Hitler.

The US putting missiles into the Ukraine means they can reach Moscow earlier in the event of a serious war.

Sabre rattling has now moved to the Middle East with NATO naval exercises while Russian and US fighters buzz each other in Eastern Syria. Russian fleets also on way to Eastern Mediterranean.

This follows Russia arming Syria with s-400 missile system to prevent Israel bombing Syria.

 

 

 

[Harry]

I found this an interesting watch

 

 

[Azeem]

[Dr. Gonzo]

6 hours ago, Harry said:

I found this an interesting watch

 

 

Don't we already know how they'd react given the Cuban missile crisis happened?

[Waylander]

Western media said the US blockade had faced down the Soviets, others said the US had agreed to pull Jupiter missiles out of Turkey.

[Azeem]

Evacuation of civilians fron Donetsk, an explosion in the city as well. 

[Azeem]

Putin is ready to recognise the breakaway regions in Donbas as independent states. 

I think Russia will do so and Western countries will de facto accept it too with sanctions to go with it and that'll be the end of this all. Siege like situation will continue

[Waylander]

3 hours ago, Aladdin said:

Putin is ready to recognise the breakaway regions in Donbas as independent states. 

I think Russia will do so and Western countries will de facto accept it too with sanctions to go with it and that'll be the end of this all. Siege like situation will continue

This argument is almost hypocritical by the West when you consider Kosovo, Kosovo was allowed independence then surely the same should be allowed to occur with Donbass. Of course this is not about logic it is more about geopolitics.

I think Germany will be the main loser as a new cold war and trade wall rises in Europe.

[RandoEFC+]