UK Politics & Brexit Discussion

[DeadLinesman]

1 hour ago, The Premier Steve's said:

 

Possible election next winter. 

Says 2023?

[Honey Honey]

1 hour ago, DeadLinesman said:

Says 2023?

Blame lockdown brain. What year are we in?

[Stan]

 

 

[RandoEFC+]

3 minutes ago, Stan said:

 

 

The fact that he picks on these examples is telling, rather than stating that teachers shouldn't be expressing political opinions in front of impressionable teenagers (which I broadly agree with). I wish somebody would ask them to square their free speech/cancel culture shtick with their irrational, paranoid fear of the BBC reporting things that happen and the army of teachers and lecturers who are apparently radicalising a generation into a massive woke mob by ecuating them about climate change, history, democratic rights, etc. Some of them contradict themselves almost every time they open their mouth in public.

[Guest]

I was talking to someone the other day about the government lack of a plan to deal with the psychological effects of the lockdowns. I've had to take loads of time of work because of poor mental health because of lockdowns. Surely the government would have been advised this would happen but no plan was in place to deal with it.

[Waylander]

2 hours ago, Gunnersauraus said:

I was talking to someone the other day about the government lack of a plan to deal with the psychological effects of the lockdowns. I've had to take loads of time of work because of poor mental health because of lockdowns. Surely the government would have been advised this would happen but no plan was in place to deal with it.

Funnily enough I think the forums have helped during the lock-downs as long as you can find some form of exercise to counter inactivity.

However for those oldies (80+) that get out less a number of ones I know have come down with mild dementia. 

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, Waylander said:

Funnily enough I think the forums have helped during the lock-downs as long as you can find some form of exercise to counter inactivity.

However for those oldies (80+) that get out less a number of ones I know have come down with mild dementia. 

This forums quite good actually. A few years ago maybe not. But most people on here are quite nice. Most conversations stay fairly civil until I start defending referees

[Stan]

30 minutes ago, Waylander said:

However for those oldies (80+) that get out less a number of ones I know have come down with mild dementia. 

@Bluewolf does often forget how many times he's visited 9GAG each day to be fair.

[Stan]

 

[Stan]

Wow

 

[Guest]

11 hours ago, Stan said:

Wow

 

Ha ha ha pissed myself

[Waylander]

Let's remember the SNP in Scotland reduced the voting age to 16. Some might suggest an almost gerrymandering tactic.

Although they have fossil fuels and a decent chance of making tidal power work they will still need investment for the latter and also lose the economics of scale to pay for a generous welfare and state job system.

Then their is the question of their share of UK debt and how they service that.

Now in terms of the EU, the EU will need to see them stand on their own feet economically to judge whether they will receive EU aid or be a contributor. That is likley to be a few years.

I've nothing personally against the Scots though think  there will be pain ahead should they choose to separate. 

 

[Inverted]

On 24/10/2021 at 23:57, Waylander said:

Let's remember the SNP in Scotland reduced the voting age to 16. Some might suggest an almost gerrymandering tactic.

Although they have fossil fuels and a decent chance of making tidal power work they will still need investment for the latter and also lose the economics of scale to pay for a generous welfare and state job system.

Then their is the question of their share of UK debt and how they service that.

Now in terms of the EU, the EU will need to see them stand on their own feet economically to judge whether they will receive EU aid or be a contributor. That is likley to be a few years.

I've nothing personally against the Scots though think  there will be pain ahead should they choose to separate. 

 

I think for a lot of young people,  there is an acknowledgement of the fact that there will be an immediate economic hit. But I think this is largely outweighed by a really sincere fear that the future of the UK is going to be a long, slow slide away from democracy and a constant worsening of social conditions. 

It's a difficult question because fundamentally different questions are at play. People tend to talk past each other because their priorities are just completely different. Is an overall hit to living standards worth a more engaged democracy and safer rule of law? Could the economic hit be made-up for within our lifetimes? Is there any hope of the UK turning course and developing in a direction which Scottish people can accept? 

Not to mention that depending on the economic policies pursued, actual living standards for many people could be improved even while indicators such as GDP growth falter. GDP growth doesn't always mean things are improving for normal people, and vice-versa. One issue is that the SNP seems like they would pursue the route of austerity and fiscal conservatism, which I think would exacerbate the economic hit.

But I think most young people aren't overly supportive of the SNP in terms of its actual economic policies, but just accept them as a tool for achieving independence. 

[Danny]

35 minutes ago, Inverted said:

I think for a lot of young people,  there is an acknowledgement of the fact that there will be an immediate economic hit. But I think this is largely outweighed by a really sincere fear that the future of the UK is going to be a long, slow slide away from democracy and a constant worsening of social conditions. 

It's a difficult question because fundamentally different questions are at play. People tend to talk past each other because their priorities are just completely different. Is an overall hit to living standards worth a more engaged democracy and safer rule of law? Could the economic hit be made-up for within our lifetimes? Is there any hope of the UK turning course and developing in a direction which Scottish people can accept? 

Not to mention that depending on the economic policies pursued, actual living standards for many people could be improved even while indicators such as GDP growth falter. GDP growth doesn't always mean things are improving for normal people, and vice-versa. One issue is that the SNP seems like they would pursue the route of austerity and fiscal conservatism, which I think would exacerbate the economic hit.

But I think most young people aren't overly supportive of the SNP in terms of its actual economic policies, but just accept them as a tool for achieving independence. 

I'm not for or against the fall of the Union (well, on the island of Britain anyway) but one thing that's interested me is how far right would Scottish politics go once you remove the barrier of the Conservative party. It opens up a space in Scotland for Scottish rightwing politicians to create a purely mainstream Scottish conservatism, where you can push Scottish independence/nationalism and right wing ideology at the same time.

[Inverted]

2 hours ago, Danny said:

I'm not for or against the fall of the Union (well, on the island of Britain anyway) but one thing that's interested me is how far right would Scottish politics go once you remove the barrier of the Conservative party. It opens up a space in Scotland for Scottish rightwing politicians to create a purely mainstream Scottish conservatism, where you can push Scottish independence/nationalism and right wing ideology at the same time.

It depends on how active an issue independence remained after a hypothetical split. The SNP is an ideological mess because so many people who are personally to it’s left and right hold their nose and support it purely to achieve Indy. Likewise, the Tory vote includes a lot of people who vote Tory purely to try and keep the SNP out. 

I think if the pro-Indy conservative Alba party types and the right-wing of the Conservative party could perhaps coalesce, then you would have a proper Scottish right-wing party. 

But I also think there would be a larger move to the left. Many left-leaning people who support the SNP for tactical reasons would probably move to other, less centrist parties once Indy was achieved.

 

 

[Waylander]

Ironic isn't it they may vote SNP to get independence yet post independence most would vote either to the Left or Right.

Reminds me a little of Churchill post end of WWII he was voted out at the first chance. 

 

[RandoEFC+]

Scottish independence would be a nightmare for both parties. Look at the mess that has been made in Ireland thanks to Brexit. There is no Good Friday Agreement to cause quite as much bother in a sense but as long as the UK remains outside of the EU there's an absolutely colossal border problem between England and Scotland where all of the infrastructure in place has been built to treat it as one country.

I don't blame the Scots for wanting out (or about half of them anyway) but the real solution for all parties is to get rid of the current government in Westminster and replace it with one that a huge number of Scottish people don't find repugnant. Too bad England doesn't seem to want to play ball with that idea, and the Scots are fed up of waiting for it to happen, which is why I totally get the desire for independence. It still doesn't make it a good idea though. And that's not to "do down" Scotland. It's just that getting away from being governed by Westminster is one thing, the reality of building an independent government, constitution and economy from scratch, a return to the EU, a Southern border, it's all very complicated and will take decades to iron out the creases.

[Waylander]

I think the SNP wanted to switch from the UK and move straight into the EU zone.

This was scuppered by Spain who has it's own problems with Catalonia and previously the Basques.

Spain was one of the early members and so they influenced the decision, IMO.

Spain are consistent on this, they won't even recognise Kosovo.

 

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/nov/01/fears-of-brexit-violence-as-armed-men-hijack-and-torch-bus-in-northern-ireland

I think these sorts of fears were sort of not really discussed or even realistically considered by a lot of people pushing Brexit... and even by the loudest voices against Brexit. Doesn't look great though.

[RandoEFC+]

First LAB lead from any pollster since the pre-vaccine days if I'm not mistaken.

[Waylander]

3 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

First LAB lead from any pollster since the pre-vaccine days if I'm not mistaken.

So what will the Tory Grandees be thinking Green +5 how do we grab that vote?

To be fair on surface rhetoric BJ seemed to be making the right noises though little action has permeated through.

That might need to change before the election.

[RandoEFC+]

1 hour ago, Waylander said:

So what will the Tory Grandees be thinking Green +5 how do we grab that vote?

To be fair on surface rhetoric BJ seemed to be making the right noises though little action has permeated through.

That might need to change before the election.

The Tory > Green shift isn't new. It seems strange on face value because it feels as if people are moving from right to left on the political spectrum and just skipping Labour out which seems like the natural step between Tory and Green if you simplify things by removing the Lib Dems.

You could read it as Labour moving back to the center, picking up that -5 from the Tories but then losing just as many voters to the Greens, resulting in no net gain for Labour and a +5 for the Greens, but that isn't really consistent with the evidence.

There are many areas in the country, such as the South East, where the Lib Dems have traditionally been the main opposition to the Conservatives and Labour are totally unpalatable. The Greens are starting to displace the Lib Dems as that party in some of these areas. They're also getting some joy in proper lefty/Corbynite areas like Bristol and parts of Merseyside. It's also likely that some of the people who answer these polls but don't pay full attention have been scared/inspired a bit by the COP26 stuff and are just going through a "Green" phase.

To summarise, there's a lot of speculation, particularly my last couple of points, but you can see from the local elections in the summer that in some areas of the country, particularly the Tory shires, the Greens as well as the Lib Dems are seen as a valid alternative to the Conservatives where Labour aren't a factor. The Tory > Green swing is a real thing in parts of the country despite it seeming quite a radical shift on the political compass on face value.

[Waylander]

Mid term there is often unpopularity in the ruling party so it not necessarily indicative of the next election outcome though they would be wise no to take notice.

I have heard of some areas where Conservatives may lose out due to H2N cutting through their counties and this could go either Green or LIbDem.

 

[RandoEFC+]

Oh boy, popcorn o'clock. 

[Stan]

13 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

Oh boy, popcorn o'clock. 

Also this.