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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak


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2 minutes ago, UNIQUE said:

the british governments road map out of covid. for our american friends who dont know what this is we call it a roundabout. it lets you drive round and round until you are back where you started. 

 

The Highway Code & Roundabouts - What are the rules? RED Driving School

Is this Norm giving you the ultimate shit banter even LadBible would stick 2 fingers up at? 

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8 hours ago, MUFC said:

Another lockdown is on the way with these variant warnings around the UK. I reckon it’ll be end of August at the latest.

Won't happen unless there's one that resists the vaccine well enough to cause serious illness in a significant proportion of fully vaccinated people and the overwhelming majority of scientific evidence continues to show that the chances of this are remote.

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55 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

Won't happen unless there's one that resists the vaccine well enough to cause serious illness in a significant proportion of fully vaccinated people and the overwhelming majority of scientific evidence continues to show that the chances of this are remote.

I'm 100% certain there will be one in August, at the latest by the end of September.

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2 minutes ago, MUFC said:

I'm 100% certain there will be one in August, at the latest by the end of September.

Based on what?

Vaccine works against the Indian variant so far.

Cases aren't spiking.

Hospitalisations aren't shooting up dramatically.

Deaths are still mega low.

 

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Just now, Stan said:

Based on what?

Vaccine works against the Indian variant so far.

Cases aren't spiking.

Hospitalisations aren't shooting up dramatically.

Deaths are still mega low.

 

It's early to say if it's the vaccine working or if it's lockdown or a combination of both. Cases always decrease when everyone is locked down. I'm 100% sure there'll be a lockdown before the end of September. Would you like an E Bet lol.

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Just now, MUFC said:

It's early to say if it's the vaccine working or if it's lockdown or a combination of both. Cases always decrease when everyone is locked down. I'm 100% sure there'll be a lockdown before the end of September. Would you like an E Bet lol.

We've been out of 'lockdown' since end of March...

So far, all vaccines are proving to work against all variants. If these variants were that serious, why have we not seen case numbers/deaths spike up or have a serious effect?

Go for it. What are the stakes?

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1 minute ago, Stan said:

We've been out of 'lockdown' since end of March...

So far, all vaccines are proving to work against all variants. If these variants were that serious, why have we not seen case numbers/deaths spike up or have a serious effect?

Go for it. What are the stakes?

We have been out of lockdown buy only slowly. If next month all restrictions are removed as planned, then I can see the variant having an affect, Boris is hinted this already. Each time he does it always happens.

August/September, what are the stakes? You decide lol.

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You two should decide what exactly you mean by "another lockdown" - because if it's a full lockdown... I'm liking @Stan's odds on this. If it's a partial lockdown to bring things closer to how they currently are... I could see that happening.

It'd need to be a variant, like @RandoEFC and @Stan (Stando, if you want to combine them) have said, that the vaccine isn't effective against. And I don't mean just that it can cause enough of a viral load to cause a positive test, but not necessarily be enough for someone to feel symptoms or easily transmit the disease. And at that point, we may as well call the variant COVID-21 (that's not based on science, that's just my opinion xD).

And sure, there's a possibility of that happening. But thankfully (at least for the mRNA vaccines), any boosters for any new variants should be able to be developed much quicker than any of the vaccines initial developments took.

You two could make it a "water bet" - loser has to take a video of them pouring a full cup of freezing cold water over your heads xD - or charitable donations bets. Or betting an amount you'll contribute to keep the forums up...

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10 hours ago, MUFC said:

It's early to say if it's the vaccine working or if it's lockdown or a combination of both. Cases always decrease when everyone is locked down. I'm 100% sure there'll be a lockdown before the end of September. Would you like an E Bet lol.

The lockdown brought case numbers down in the UK more than the vaccine did but if you look at the spike in infections and hospitalisations in the Indian variant hot spots and dig into the data, you'll notice two things. 1) The infection rate is barely increasing in those aged 60+ (the fully vaccinated) and 2) Of the ~20 people hospitalised in Bolton with Covid-19, only one of them is fully vaccinated and that person comes from a highly vulnerable group anyway. It has also been apparent for several months now that the rate of infections and hospitalisations among the fully vaccinated population was falling at a greater rate than the rest of the population even as the last big wave was still only just calming back down.

The time for gut feelings and drawing conclusions from fear and speculation are past. The science is taking over again now. UNIQUE may have come out with some real horseshit in this thread but he had a point about the media. I'm all for caution and not getting carried away but I've not been impressed with the sensationalism over the Indian variant. If it doesn't affect fully vaccinated people and the spread amongst the young is kept low enough to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed then it's a non-story in the grand scheme of things. Certainly not grounds to start a conversation about another lockdown.

If you're unsure, look up "John Burn Murdoch vaccine effect" and you should find some of his analysis for the Financial Times on Twitter or elsewhere.

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1 minute ago, RandoEFC said:

The lockdown brought case numbers down in the UK more than the vaccine did but if you look at the spike in infections and hospitalisations in the Indian variant hot spots and dig into the data, you'll notice two things. 1) The infection rate is barely increasing in those aged 60+ (the fully vaccinated) and 2) Of the ~20 people hospitalised in Bolton with Covid-19, only one of them is fully vaccinated and that person comes from a highly vulnerable group anyway. It has also been apparent for several months now that the rate of infections and hospitalisations among the fully vaccinated population was falling at a greater rate than the rest of the population even as the last big wave was still only just calming back down.

The time for gut feelings and drawing conclusions from fear and speculation are past. The science is taking over again now. UNIQUE may have come out with some real horseshit in this thread but he had a point about the media. I'm all for caution and not getting carried away but I've not been impressed with the sensationalism over the Indian variant. If it doesn't affect fully vaccinated people and the spread amongst the young is kept low enough to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed then it's a non-story in the grand scheme of things. Certainly not grounds to start a conversation about another lockdown.

If you're unsure, look up "John Burn Murdoch vaccine effect" and you should find some of his analysis for the Financial Times on Twitter or elsewhere.

Very good points, but saying that my opinion can only stand the test of time. I feel more variants will surface. I guess we'll have to wait till August/September to see if my opinion has any basis. If wrong I 'll hold my hands up as I always do.

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10 hours ago, MUFC said:

August/September, what are the stakes? You decide lol.

A donation to the forum. £50?

No full lockdown by September 1st - you donate £50 to the forum.

Full lockdown in place by September 1st - I'll donat £50 to the forum.

 

Deal? 

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Looking at the daily new cases for the last few days, averaging around 2500 per day. 

Hardly growing out of control is it, I'd so isolating the area's of concern is the better option. I can see localised lockdowns and maybe a partial lockdown, I don't see a full lockdown happening again now we're well on with the vaccinations. 

At the end of the day if they really was that concerned with this Indian variant they'd have put the latest opening measures on hold. 

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59 minutes ago, Stan said:

A donation to the forum. £50?

No full lockdown by September 1st - you donate £50 to the forum.

Full lockdown in place by September 1st - I'll donat £50 to the forum.

 

Deal? 

mmmm, good starting point. But for me any form of lockdown is a lockdown. My lawyer advises any lockdown at all is victory for me. I'll donate £25 if wrong.

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