Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak

[nudge]

Midnight's update for international cases outside of mainland China in the last 24 hours (00:00 to 24:00 CET Feb 28):

1070 new cases and 18 deaths:

• South Korea - 571 new cases and 3 deaths;
• Italy - 234 new cases and 4 deaths;
• Iran - 143 new cases and 8 deaths;
• Japan - 35 new cases and 1 death;
• France - 19 new cases;
• Spain - 11 new cases;
• Germany - 6 new cases;
• Bahrain, Switzerland - 5 new cases each;
• UK, Sweden, Israel - 4 new cases each;
• USA, Malaysia, Austria - 3 new cases each;
• Taiwan, Canada, Kuwait, Croatia, Norway, Romania, Mexico - 2 new cases each;
• Thailand, Australia, Finland, Iraq, Greece, Georgia, Denmark, Netherlands, Nigeria, Lithuania, New Zealand, Belarus, Azerbaijan, Iceland, Monaco - 1 new case each.
• 2 former passengers of the Diamond Princess cruise ship also passed away (a Japanese woman and a British man).

Eight countries reported their first ever cases today (Nigeria, Lithuania, New Zealand, Belarus, Mexico, Azerbaijan, Iceland, Monaco). 

Current total: 5346 cases and 88 deaths in 60 countries.

[Dr. Gonzo]

Do you have any info about the new deaths & the ages of the victims, or no?

[nudge]

23 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Do you have any info about the new deaths & the ages of the victims, or no?

Only few details as most countries don't reveal much via official channels; but overall it's mostly the elderly or those with weakened immune systems and pre-existing medical conditions. There have been very few reports of younger healthy people passing away; and those are usually doctors/nurses so might have something to do with exposure too.

South Korea's 3 deaths today were three women; 62, 93 and 70 years old.
The average age of all 34 deaths in Iran is reported to be over 60.
The Japanese citizen/former Diamond Princess passenger who passed away today was also in her 70s.

[Dr. Gonzo]

BBC are saying there are far more deaths in Iran than being reported, according to hospital sources: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51673053

At least 210 according to the beeb! Hope that's not true, but I certainly trust the BBC more than the Islamic Republic of Iran.

[Azeem]

Credit to the authorities here for handling the outbreak, seeing we have a border with both China and Iran and quiet a lot of people travel to and from these countries it's surprising we were one of the last countries in the neighborhood to have a confirmed case and they also recovered.

We clearly don't have the resources and the facilities to handle a mass outbreak god forbid if it happens.

Edited February 29, 2020 by Azeem

[Azeem]

A member of parliament has died in Iran due to corona

[nudge]

10 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

BBC are saying there are far more deaths in Iran than being reported, according to hospital sources: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51673053

At least 210 according to the beeb! Hope that's not true, but I certainly trust the BBC more than the Islamic Republic of Iran.

There seems to be some speculation about Iran using corticosteroids to treat the virus, suppressing the bodies immune response in such a way that more succumb to the pneumonia. 

Or maybe their numbers are much higher because they have many more infected than they've been able to test. When it started spreading in China there were also regular reports of people (medical staff etc.) being skeptical about the reported numbers, saying they were much lower than reality. Apparently many potential cases weren't included in the official count because they died before they could be tested. In the end it all comes down to the testing capacity. If you don't test, you don't officially have confirmed cases/deaths.

[Azeem]

5 minutes ago, nudge said:

There seems to be some speculation about Iran using corticosteroids to treat the virus, suppressing the bodies immune response in such a way that more succumb to the pneumonia. 

Or maybe their numbers are much higher because they have many more infected than they've been able to test. When it started spreading in China there were also regular reports of people (medical staff etc.) being skeptical about the reported numbers, saying they were much lower than reality. Apparently many potential cases weren't included in the official count because they died before they could be tested. In the end it all comes down to the testing capacity. If you don't test, you don't officially have confirmed cases/deaths.

What are the chances for someone who recovers can get infected again ?

[Carnivore Chris]

On 28/02/2020 at 00:59, nudge said:

Midnight's update for international cases outside of mainland China in the last 24 hours (00:00 to 24:00 CET Feb 27):

960 new cases and 14 deaths:

• South Korea - 505 new cases and 1 death;
• Italy - 202 new cases and 5 deaths;
• Iran - 106 new cases and 7 deaths;
• Japan - 35 new cases and 1 death;
• Germany - 22 new cases;
• France - 20 new cases;
• Kuwait - 17 new cases;
• Spain - 10 new cases;
• Switzerland  - 7 new cases;
• UAE - 6 new cases;
• Sweden - 5 new cases;
• Hong Kong, Singapore, UK, Norway - 3 new cases each;
• Oman, Iraq, Greece - 2 new cases each;
• Lebanon, Israel, Austria, Denmark, Estonia, Netherlands, San Marino - 1 new case each. 

Four countries reported their first ever cases today (Denmark, Estonia, Netherlands, San Marino). 

Current total: 4276 cases and 70 deaths in 52 countries.

 

 

Spain's up to about 45 now.

" Los 45 positivos por coronavirus confirmados en España en estos momentos se distribuyen de la siguiente manera: 10 en la Comunidad Valenciana, 10 en la Comunidad de Madrid, 8 en Andalucía, 6 en Cataluña, 5 en Canarias, 3 en el País Vasco, 2 en Castilla y León y 1 en Baleares."

Edit: In fact, make that 48 now. It's rising quite quickly there now:-

"El periodista de TVE Ferrán Garrido informa de tres nuevos casos de coronavirus en la Comunidad Valenciana. Por tanto, el número de contagios activos en España se eleva a 48 personas, diez de ellos confirmados en las últimas horas: tres en la Comunidad Valenciana, tres en Madrid, dos en Cataluña, uno en Baleares y uno en el País Vasco."

I can see my trip going wrong somehow, either via there being cancelled flights(if Catalunya becomes infected on a similar scale to parts of Italy, which hopefully won't be the case) or banning public events(i.e football games), something is going to fuck up due to this, I can sense it.

 

 

[Azeem]

34 minutes ago, Azeem said:

What are the chances for someone who recovers can get infected again ?

Found something on this

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8050519/amp/Japanese-tour-bus-worker-recovered-coronavirus-tests-positive-AGAIN.html

It looks like body antivirals do not stop repeated infection how effective would a vaccine be ?

Edited February 29, 2020 by Azeem

[nudge]

29 minutes ago, Azeem said:

What are the chances for someone who recovers can get infected again ?

There's very very little we currently know about it, there have only been two cases so far that are suspected to have been reinfected. 

[Azeem]

42 minutes ago, nudge said:

There's very very little we currently know about it, there have only been two cases so far that are suspected to have been reinfected. 

Can it be something like the virus hides/disappears and doesn't go away in the first place ?

[Azeem]

Another cases reported here needs confirmation.

[Dr. Gonzo]

13 hours ago, Cicero said:

No. It can't . The survey is for beer drinkers. You can't take a sample size this small and try and pull it off as an entire nation, without even showing the statistical analysis. That is why I said demographics are important in all this.  For example, what was the average IQ of this sample size of beer drinkers?  For all we know they could've sampled 700 idiots who haven't a high school diploma. 

Again, I accept the flaws and inconsistencies small survey samples potentially have, but to completely mislead a viewing audience without considering the context of the survey, is unethical. That is the main issue. 

I was going to let this go, but no it fucking can. 700+ Americans who are just beer drinkers is still a big enough sample size to get a fairly accurate survey. Is it as accurate as it should be? Fuck no it’s not.

But in less argumentative news, I’m feeling pretty ill and I hope I don’t have this fucking disease

[Azeem]

49 minutes ago, Azeem said:

Another cases reported here needs confirmation.

Two more cases confirmed, shit

[nudge]

57 minutes ago, Azeem said:

Can it be something like the virus hides/disappears and doesn't go away in the first place ?

Also possible, theoretically it could be latent and virtually undetectable; similar to HIV or Herpes. It's just one more thing that we really don't know about the virus at the moment.

[Azeem]

Are there any chances it's intensity drops in the summer because of the heat cause they do require precise environment to survive and spread

[Stan]

First death in USA reported. In north-west Washington

[Carnivore Chris]

 

I wonder if they will allow me to board the plane wearing one of these on Thurs?

 

 

 

 

 

[nudge]

35 minutes ago, Azeem said:

Are there any chances it's intensity drops in the summer because of the heat cause they do require precise environment to survive and spread

Possible. 

[nudge]

6 minutes ago, Carnivore Chris said:

 

I wonder if they will allow me to board the plane wearing one of these on Thurs?

 

 

 

 

 

You'll also need this

[Honey Honey]

1000 cases in Italy in a week is quite something. Must have been a lot of people out there who have it but think they've just got your typical cold or flu.

[Machado]

So what is happening in Italy? It's clearly out of control if there's 200+ new cases each day.

Edited March 1, 2020 by Machado

[Harry]

28 minutes ago, Machado said:

So what is happening in Italy? It's clearly out of control if there's 200+ new cases each day.

I think both Italy and South Korea are at the point of being out of control similar to how things were in Hubei before the Chinese government made some big calls to build a fence contained to that area. In more freedom loving westernised countries it will be interesting to see if less extreme measures can be as effective.

[nudge]

Midnight's update for international cases outside of mainland China in the last 24 hours (00:00 to 24:00 CET Feb 29):

1436 new cases and 19 deaths:

• South Korea - 813 new cases and 1 death;
• Italy - 239 new cases and 8 deaths;
• Iran - 205 new cases and 9 deaths;
• France - 43 new cases;
• Germany - 25 new cases;
• Spain - 24 new cases;
• Norway - 9 new cases;
• Japan, Switzerland - 8 new cases each;
• Singapore - 6 new cases;
• Taiwan, USA (1 death), Iraq, Netherlands - 5 new cases each;
• Lebanon, Austria - 4 new cases each;
• UK, Bahrain, Greece - 3 new cases each;
• Canada, UAE, Sweden, Pakistan - 2 new cases each;
• Thailand, Australia, Croatia, Brazil, Georgia, Denmark, Mexico, Qatar, Luxembourg, Ecuador, Ireland - 1 new case each.

Four countries reported their first ever cases today (Qatar, Luxembourg, Ecuador, Ireland). 

Current total: 6782 cases and 107 deaths in 64 countries.

 

Cumulative cases by country (cases charted on a log scale for better visualisation):