Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak

[Stan]

It looks UKIP have gained a lot of areas, labour taking back Midlands and Northern areas.

Tory blue nowhere to be seen which is great

 

 

[RandoEFC+]

16 minutes ago, Stan said:

Is this surprising? We've heard over past few weeks especially that viruses mutate 100s and 1000s of times and this was almost to be expected.

I guess it's good they've quarantined 2 cases and contacts so far and we just have to hope there's no further cases found. 

 

I am surprised more areas aren't in Tier 4 though. Still remains in London, South East and now covers more surrounding areas i.e. Sussex, Oxfordshire, Cambridgeshire, Essex, Norfolk. Thought it'd go further west and towards the Midlands too. 

Yeah but the one identified in the UK last week was of major concern being 70% more transmissible than the other strains, and apparently this one is even worse, so yeah it's a bit surprising a year in to find another even worse strain just days after finding the first mutation that caused a really significant problem.

They have done the right thing here, and at the right time by the looks of it, but it's still concerning. We can only do so much to control this thing.

[Stan]

8 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

Yeah but the one identified in the UK last week was of major concern being 70% more transmissible than the other strains, and apparently this one is even worse, so yeah it's a bit surprising a year in to find another even worse strain just days after finding the first mutation that caused a really significant problem.

They have done the right thing here, and at the right time by the looks of it, but it's still concerning. We can only do so much to control this thing.

The cynic in me says it's all a bit timely these new strains come in ready for a lockdown in Jan, ready made excuses for further restrictions as well from Boxing Day 

[RandoEFC+]

43 minutes ago, Stan said:

The cynic in me says it's all a bit timely these new strains come in ready for a lockdown in Jan, ready made excuses for further restrictions as well from Boxing Day 

We're already hitting 750 deaths a day now and rising. The public already harbour overwhelming support for tighter restrictions, I don't see what further excuse they need.

Nobody wants lockdown but nobody wants this many deaths to carry on. You can't have both and most people understand that. If there was majority public agitation about increased restrictions, then I could see a theory along the lines of "there have already been more infectious strains discovered before these last two but they're making a big deal about these ones for political reasons" but there's no need for them to do so here.

[Honey Honey]

1 hour ago, Stan said:

The cynic in me says it's all a bit timely these new strains come in ready for a lockdown in Jan, ready made excuses for further restrictions as well from Boxing Day 

It is entirely being used to justify the creation of tier 4, without it the powers that be would need to admit the original tier system was a load of shite or badly deployed. London had 30,000 cases in a week whilst in Tier 2. Wtf was London doing in Tier 2 long enough to get that? Tier 3 was probably never going to work for something as out of control as that. 

Sadiq Khan and South East Conservative MP's making out that London was too important for tier 3 are at least partly at fault. Even if the decision wasn't with them.

[The Artful Dodger]

2 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

Sake

People need to get some perspective on what ‘new strain’ means. It’s the same virus with over a certain amount of mutations, this was always going to happen. It happens every year with the flu and other illnesses. There is no evidence the vaccine won’t work against them.

 

[Danny]

Feel absolutely fucked and yet to receive the test results back, was hoping within 24 hours but with Christmas they’re most likely really busy. My mum needs to care for her mum over Christmas so the timing of this is all a bit shit.

Couldnt get up to drink so had a straw with my lemsip, one sip and it took up residue dust at the bottom and I nearly had it coming out of both ends

Merry Christmas 

[nudge]

Just now, The Artful Dodger said:

People need to get some perspective on what ‘new strain’ means. It’s the same virus with over a certain amount of mutations, this was always going to happen. It happens every year with the flu and other illnesses. There is no evidence the vaccine won’t work against them.

To add to that, technically it's also not even a new strain, it's just another new variant - there's quite a big difference, and it's so annoying to see even some experts use the two terms indiscriminately. These two new variants have been catalogued in September/October already, and while it's definitely worth keeping an eye on them as they appear to have more mutations than usual so it's unknown what effect the combination of these mutations might have, at this point there's nothing to suggest that it has increased pathogenicity, and even the increased transmissibility is a speculation until there's proper data analysis; the 70% figure quoted in some sources is very likely to be an overestimation. As for vaccines, they are very likely to be effective, for numerous reasons. For starters, the vaccines target numerous epitopes of the spike protein, and that's extremely unlikely that mutations in a single variant of the virus would alter ALL of these epitopes, rendering the vaccine useless. Also, the vaccines were created based on the original genome of the virus after it was first sequenced and made public in January, but the clinical trials data shows that it provided effective protection against variants of the virus that ocurred later this year. And even if there happened to be a new variant some day in the future that somehow rendered the existing vaccines completely useless, it's not that much of a big deal anyway - the biggest advantage of mRNA vaccines is the fact that they can be created extremely fast, so you'd need just a few days to modify the existing ones to target the new variant instead of the original one. 

[RandoEFC+]

Come on guys. Nothing the government have said about either of these new strains contradicts SAGE and their own findings. Yes this was always likely to happen, and it's surprising that it's taken this long then happened twice in a week, but that doesn't mean it's been exaggerated or it's some sort of conspiracy. Yes it's convenient for them to bin the unsuccessful tiered system, that doesn't change the fact that the England new strain is 70% more infectious than what we've been dealing with before. And the South African one is supposed to be more infectious based on early research.

If anyone can find any evidence that a) there have been other more potent strains over the past year that have been kept quiet by the UK government or b) that the potency of these two new strains is being exaggerated for political reasons then we can have a conversation. Until then it's perfectly reasonable to be concerned. There is a middle ground between playing down the changing risk posed by these new strains and running around waving your arms in the air shouting doomsday prophecies.

[The Artful Dodger]

7 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

Come on guys. Nothing the government have said about either of these new strains contradicts SAGE and their own findings. Yes this was always likely to happen, and it's surprising that it's taken this long then happened twice in a week, but that doesn't mean it's been exaggerated or it's some sort of conspiracy. Yes it's convenient for them to bin the unsuccessful tiered system, that doesn't change the fact that the England new strain is 70% more infectious than what we've been dealing with before. And the South African one is supposed to be more infectious based on early research.

If anyone can find any evidence that a) there have been other more potent strains over the past year that have been kept quiet by the UK government or b) that the potency of these two new strains is being exaggerated for political reasons then we can have a conversation. Until then it's perfectly reasonable to be concerned. There is a middle ground between playing down the changing risk posed by these new strains and running around waving your arms in the air shouting doomsday prophecies.

I’m not saying it’s a conspiracy. It’s just something that was always going to happen, has happened and is not the end of the world. I think some people think we should be just at no Covid cases whatsoever. All this ‘super Covid’ is hysteria.

 

Edited December 23, 2020 by The Artful Dodger

[UNIQUE]

the government are giving us the number of infected using a test that aint worth a cold cup of tea and they are falsifying death certificates to make the numbers look worst. 

[RandoEFC+]

14 minutes ago, The Artful Dodger said:

I’m not saying it’s a conspiracy. It’s just something that was always going to happen, has happened and is not the end of the world. I think some people think we should be just at no Covid cases whatsoever. All this ‘super Covid’ is hysteria.

 

Okay, well I've not seen any of that although I need no convincing that there's fresh hysteria in the air over today's news. Personally, I was only reporting what had just come out.

[The Artful Dodger]

What I do think is wrong is this staggered lockdown. We all know we’re going into a full one sooner or later, just do it now. I’m happy for a few more days of well poured Guinness but it’s not the priority.

[nudge]

5 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

Come on guys. Nothing the government have said about either of these new strains contradicts SAGE and their own findings. Yes this was always likely to happen, and it's surprising that it's taken this long then happened twice in a week, but that doesn't mean it's been exaggerated or it's some sort of conspiracy. Yes it's convenient for them to bin the unsuccessful tiered system, that doesn't change the fact that the England new strain is 70% more infectious than what we've been dealing with before. And the South African one is supposed to be more infectious based on early research.

If anyone can find any evidence that a) there have been other more potent strains over the past year that have been kept quiet by the UK government or b) that the potency of these two new strains is being exaggerated for political reasons then we can have a conversation. Until then it's perfectly reasonable to be concerned. There is a middle ground between playing down the changing risk posed by these new strains and running around waving your arms in the air shouting doomsday prophecies.

Just to clarify - I'm not getting into the debate whether or not the UK government is using the information about the new variants as some sort of a political tool to keep people in check during the festive period; I have no clue about that nor is it a discussion I'm particularly interested in, haha. But it's probably worth noting that the new UK and South Africa variants didn't happen in a week - they've been catalogued in late September/early October, and it's very likely it's already spread throughout the world anyway. The UK is doing a fantastic job with sequencing, so it's no wonder they were the first one to find it; if other countries would be doing as much of it as the UK does, I bet it would have already been documented in more places around the world too.

Regarding other more potent variants, there was one with the D614G mutation that suddenly started rising in March and became the most dominant one in Europe and then globally by the end of June. That variant also had a significantly higher transmissibility, but no change in pathogenicity; these two new variants appear to be very similar to the D614G one in that aspect. Interestingly enough, the mutations in that variant also made it more succeptible to neutralisation by antibodies, so there's hoping it will be the same case with the new ones as well.

 

[The Artful Dodger]

S

 

Edited December 23, 2020 by The Artful Dodger

[nudge]

This is a great write up. 

 

[Carnivore Chris]

I could see us all having to live underground during our time to be honest.

 

[Stan]

9 hours ago, Carnivore Chris said:

I could see us all having to live underground during our time to be honest.

 

Why? 

[Azeem]

1 hour ago, Stan said:

Why? 

[El Profesor]

Neymar has organized a huge party to celebrate the new year. 

It will last 5 days, from the 26th to the 31st December, and 500 people were invited. According to rumours, the guests have their cellphones confiscated at the entrance. 

That party is the hottest topic in brazilian social medias at the moment. 

In fairness to Neymar, most people in Brazil really don't care about the pandemic anymore. It's a bad look for sure, but he's far from being the only one. This must be said.

It could affect european football as a whole though. It wouldn't be a surprise if we see big COVID outbreaks in most european leagues when the brazilian players return from the break.

Edited December 28, 2020 by El Profesor

[Honey Honey]

 

Jesus

[RandoEFC+]

3 minutes ago, Steve Bruce Almighty said:

 

Jesus

Been inevitable for weeks and only about to get worse as the impact of loosening restrictions again filters through.

[Honey Honey]

11 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

Been inevitable for weeks and only about to get worse as the impact of loosening restrictions again filters through.

It shouldn't be. There were no restrictions at all a month before the April peak. Whereas this time there has been significantly reduced socialisation, in virus hotbed London around 70% don't go to work. The amount of human interactions is much lower, even with restriction fluctuations.

What is the one major similarity between the two periods prior to the peak? Secondary schools open. Very little else is the same. Could be a coincidence but unlikely. 

[Stan]

What happened to the Nightingale hospitals? 

[DeadLinesman]

18 minutes ago, Stan said:

What happened to the Nightingale hospitals? 

There’s no staff to use them. I genuinely think it was a massive PR stunt by an under pressure government. It’s hard enough to staff the existing hospitals and ICU’s.