Bayern Munich 2-3 PSG - Wednesday 7th April, 2021 (1st Leg)

[Dr. Gonzo]

Obviously, it's a better result for PSG - they won and have 3 away goals. I still think you can only rule out this Bayern Munich side at your own peril - even with Lewandowski & Gnabry out, they're loaded with talent.

Fans of PSG will obviously be happier - but I wouldn't say it's absolutely over for Bayern Munich here. They're still one of the best sides in Europe.

The obvious counterpoint here is, PSG are also very clearly one of the best sides in Europe and they got the better result with a win & the cushion away goals give you. And they've got the talent and quality up top to punish a Bayern side that's probably going to be pushing hard to get 2 away goals of their own in the next leg ASAP. Arguably one of the worst attacks to have to worry about defending counterattacks against in the world right now, if not the worst attack to have to worry about on the counter.

When it comes to European royalty vs. an oil club that nobody actually likes, I'll always be hoping the European royalty can get through. So best of luck to Bayern Munich in the next leg.

[Devil]

No Lewandowski no party for me. 

 

[Cicero]

But....we had possession  xG....

[Rucksackfranzose]

3 minutes ago, Cicero said:

But....we had possession  xG....

It's the English banging about xG. In Germany this stat is widely ignored, so no wrong comment.

[Devil-Dick Willie]

Ironically, Mbappe being a shite finisher and Neuer being a great goalie kinda imploded. Mbop 1000 iq play hits it straight at the keeper (as usual) but Neuer played himself 

[Stan]

3 minutes ago, Rucksackfranzose said:

It's the English banging about xG. In Germany this stat is widely ignored, so no wrong comment.

It's used quite ironically here to be fair. Not sure if any football fan actually cares about it in all honesty. I'm pretty sure @Cicero was being sarcastic. 

[Cicero]

It was the same with possession during the Barcelona/Guardiola days when we beat them. Banging on about, but we had possession. 

[Rucksackfranzose]

3 minutes ago, Stan said:

It's used quite ironically here to be fair. Not sure if any football fan actually cares about it in all honesty. I'm pretty sure @Cicero was being sarcastic. 

His sarcasm didn't escape me; I was just pointing out it doesn't meet the addressee here.

[Devil-Dick Willie]

22 minutes ago, Cicero said:

It was the same with possession during the Barcelona/Guardiola days when we beat them. Banging on about, but we had possession. 

One of my favorite quotes ever. Barca drew 2-2 with AC milan. Milan scored in practically the first and last minute of the game
Guardiola in the press conference "It's hard to beat a team that spends the whole game defending"
Allegri "Well if they want to hold the ball for 75% possession we have to defend 75% of the time don't we?"

Or something like that. Biblical 
 

[Stan]

5 minutes ago, Devil-Dick Willie said:

One of my favorite quotes ever. Barca drew 2-2 with AC milan. Milan scored in practically the first and last minute of the game
Guardiola in the press conference "It's hard to beat a team that spends the whole game defending"
Allegri "Well if they want to hold the ball for 75% possession we have to defend 75% of the time don't we?"

Or something like that. Biblical 
 

Pep said the same after we beat them 5-2 in September. Literally the same words. 

He's a sore loser and doesn't like it when teams play in a way that stifle his own perfect precious plans. Hates it when teams don't come at them all game which inconceivably makes it easier for him to play against. So why would teams do that?!

Even Rodri at the time said we 'did nothing' . 

[Dr. Gonzo]

10 minutes ago, Devil-Dick Willie said:

One of my favorite quotes ever. Barca drew 2-2 with AC milan. Milan scored in practically the first and last minute of the game
Guardiola in the press conference "It's hard to beat a team that spends the whole game defending"
Allegri "Well if they want to hold the ball for 75% possession we have to defend 75% of the time don't we?"

Or something like that. Biblical 
 

Tbf, I do think it's a bit different when it's 2 big clubs and one of them wants to play football and the other is making no real attempt at trying to win the ball, just to deprive space from the team actually playing, to play the sort of football that makes Fat Sam, Pullis, Mourinho, and Simeone rock hard.

I'm not going to begrudge a team trying to deny a side like Pep's Barca or his Man City from having the space to carve them open when they've got nowhere near the resources as the other side. And tbf, that AC Milan was nowhere near as good at that Barca side - which is most probably the best Barca side ever. But at the same time, they're still Milan... I'd expect them to do more than just have 10 men behind the ball each game and actually make an attempt at winning some of the midfield battles.

But I guess on the flipside, it was a generational team with probably the best player of our lifetimes... I guess I can't really fault Allegri for not giving it more of a go.

But that shit is why I don't really have much respect for Mourinho or Simeone. Spending all that cash for some of the most unappealing football I've ever watched isn't all that ambitious - and at least Mourinho's had some fairly entertaining sides before turning into Fat Sam 2.

[The Käiser]

Can’t see Bayern beating psg by 2 next week. 
defence is weakness which psg  didn’t exploit in the final last season but have today and will again next week. 
psg lose in league last Saturday but turned up today. 
for Bayern it’s been a good run. Better luck next year 

[Danny]

xG is a perfectly good statistic to help judge a team on over the course of a season or more, people who actually know how to use it as a statistic will also know that you have to take into account general performance levels individually and collectively.

Using xG to talk about whether a team should have won an individual game or not is misleading, especially as it is just a statistic based on previous chances created. The point of using xG to help define your style of play is that you create a system of play which looks to create consistent goal scoring opportunities and xG measures those opportunities, which creates something tangible for a structure to be built around. If you do not regularly have a good xG then something is wrong because there is no system of play in place to create it.

Bayern created enough chances to win the game, Choupo-Moting hits the wood work with a header early on and scuffs a near open goal at the back post. Both of their goals are very clear goal scoring opportunities to add onto that. What the xG shows is that Bayern missed Lewandowski and Gnabry, if they play they probably score 4 goals tonight.

PSG didn’t create a whole lot but were very clinical, if a bit lucky with the first goal. Though I’d say Mbappe deserves credit with the power he hit it with.

Suggesting xG is pointless is as stupid as using it as a barometer to measure each game individually and say x, y and z should have won, it is a tool to help measure end product and it is very good at that but it does not measure overall performances.

[Devil-Dick Willie]

2 hours ago, Danny said:

xG is a perfectly good statistic to help judge a team on over the course of a season or more, people who actually know how to use it as a statistic will also know that you have to take into account general performance levels individually and collectively.

Using xG to talk about whether a team should have won an individual game or not is misleading, especially as it is just a statistic based on previous chances created. The point of using xG to help define your style of play is that you create a system of play which looks to create consistent goal scoring opportunities and xG measures those opportunities, which creates something tangible for a structure to be built around. If you do not regularly have a good xG then something is wrong because there is no system of play in place to create it.

Bayern created enough chances to win the game, Choupo-Moting hits the wood work with a header early on and scuffs a near open goal at the back post. Both of their goals are very clear goal scoring opportunities to add onto that. What the xG shows is that Bayern missed Lewandowski and Gnabry, if they play they probably score 4 goals tonight.

PSG didn’t create a whole lot but were very clinical, if a bit lucky with the first goal. Though I’d say Mbappe deserves credit with the power he hit it with.

Suggesting xG is pointless is as stupid as using it as a barometer to measure each game individually and say x, y and z should have won, it is a tool to help measure end product and it is very good at that but it does not measure overall performances.

No it doesn't. 

1. Not all opportunities are equal. Not all players are equal XG only uses the 'historical probability' of players scoring from similar positions. It doesn't take into account the fact that a half chance for Giroud, is a 9/10 chance for Lewandowski or Haaland, is a 1/10 chance for Timo Werner. 

2. A slide pass from Mason Mount puts Pulisic in on goal with the keeper. 1 on 1. Pulisic dribbles at the keeper, and the keeper wins, snapping the ball up. Because Pulisic never fired off a shot, no XG is added. DOGSHIT

You're a twatletic football hipster cock licker and people like you ruin football. 

[Viva la FCB+]

Kind of went how I expected tbh. Just alot of things falling into place for this. Gnabry getting covid was just kind of the icing on the shitpile. Tolisso out long term, Lewy for a bit, Douglas Costa to a lesser extent out. The national team players all looking exhausted by the end (for the ones that even finished) Our defence has been leaking goals all season so that wasnt surprising but Neuer on that first goal man thats just unfortunate. I actually dont remember the last time Ive seen him let in a goal like that. Anyways, still a chance but I dont really expect any different next week.

[MUFC]

Tie isn't over yet. Sometimes when the away team look comfortable, they don't know how to approach the game. You see it so often where they don't know if they should sit or go for more goals. Not saying it will go that way but it does often happen.

[Danny]

5 hours ago, Devil-Dick Willie said:

No it doesn't. 

1. Not all opportunities are equal. Not all players are equal XG only uses the 'historical probability' of players scoring from similar positions. It doesn't take into account the fact that a half chance for Giroud, is a 9/10 chance for Lewandowski or Haaland, is a 1/10 chance for Timo Werner. 

2. A slide pass from Mason Mount puts Pulisic in on goal with the keeper. 1 on 1. Pulisic dribbles at the keeper, and the keeper wins, snapping the ball up. Because Pulisic never fired off a shot, no XG is added. DOGSHIT

You're a twatletic football hipster cock licker and people like you ruin football. 

I have no idea why you are arguing with my post, as a statistic it literally attempts to measure all attempted chances on goal. It is one specific statistic, of course it isn’t going to measure something that hasn’t happened if it is based on taking shots. That is why you merge the use of statistics with actual coaches who can read the game.

What you do with that statistic after is up to you.

[Viva la FCB+]

Well both Süle and Goretzka will miss the return leg by the sounds of it my glimmer of hope is shrinking as we speak.

[El Profesor]

9 hours ago, Viva la FCB said:

Kind of went how I expected tbh. Just alot of things falling into place for this. Gnabry getting covid was just kind of the icing on the shitpile. Tolisso out long term, Lewy for a bit, Douglas Costa to a lesser extent out. The national team players all looking exhausted by the end (for the ones that even finished) Our defence has been leaking goals all season so that wasnt surprising but Neuer on that first goal man thats just unfortunate. I actually dont remember the last time Ive seen him let in a goal like that. Anyways, still a chance but I dont really expect any different next week.

I'd be fuming if I were a Bayern fan. Having your chances of a Champions League repeat compromised by international football is brutal. 

I still believe Bayern can do it. They created the chances yesterday and the possibility of Marquinhos being out could be a real game changer. PSG has zero depth at CB. 

 

7 minutes ago, Viva la FCB said:

Well both Süle and Goretzka will miss the return leg by the sounds of it my glimmer of hope is shrinking as we speak.

Süle out is... a blessing in desguise? He really struggled against Mbappé pace. 

 

 

 

 

This is a great angle for Neymar's assist. Amazing vision and execution.

 

 

[Viva la FCB+]

14 minutes ago, El Profesor said:

I'd be fuming if I were a Bayern fan. Having your chances of a Champions League repeat compromised by international football is brutal. 

I still believe Bayern can do it. They created the chances yesterday and the possibility of Marquinhos being out could be a real game changer. PSG has zero depth at CB. 

 

Süle out is... a blessing in desguise? He really struggled against Mbappé pace. 

 

 

 

 

This is a great angle for Neymar's assist. Amazing vision and execution.

 

 

I mean I already hate Löw I didnt need more fuel. He literally made 2 lineup changes over the 3 matches they played during the break. They lost to Macedonia and he says "we looked tired" NO FUCKING SHIT. Just compounded with our lineup having injuries and basically no ability to rotate even more I just throw up my hands. We can cover Süle being out as you said it wasnt his finest effort but hes struggled on and off since his knee last season and he never regained his pace also the alternative is Boateng who has definitely lost a step. The best solution was what was made out of necessity already in the match with Boateng Hernandez at CB and Davies at LB. 

You are right about Marquinhos though, not only on the goal but he was rock solid early and that defnitely does help us out if he misses.