UK Politics & Brexit Discussion

[RandoEFC+]

33 minutes ago, Stan said:

Labour lost Harlow to Tories.

Fair, then perhaps things will be even worse but the 'liberalisation' of suburbs and young, predominantly Labour-voting couples families relocating to those sorts of areas stands. Local elections are complicated. I don't know much about Harlow but the demographics could be different there.

From what I have read, the snippets of positivity for Labour are that Burnham is set to win by a landslide (he notably campaigned predominantly off his own brand and kept the Labour branding to a minimum), they're expected to win one of the regional mayoralties (West of England if I remember correctly) from the Tories and Shaun Bailey could end up with the lowest vote share for a Tory mayoral candidate in London yet. Although there were concerns from Khan's team yesterday about low turnout in London. I just hope Count Binface beats Laurence Fox to be honest.

There's a lot of good analysis out there underneath the shouting, screaming and willy-waving of most of the media. The BBC always do some good stuff. Sebastian Payne and Jim Pickard of the Financial Times are always worth a follow on Twitter along with Alex Wickham of Politico and Sam Coates of Sky News. These guys are rarely wide of the mark. Owen Jones also did a really good 30 minute video on the Hartlepool by-election last week and even managed to keep his Corbyn/leftie-tinted specs off for most of it. It's more than just Starmer and Corbyn. Starmer could have performed well and still lost Hartlepool. If anything, it's sort of good for Labour to lose by so much because now it can't be put down to Brexit or the Tees Valley mayor Ben Houchen or blamed on people still being upset about Corybn's influence on the party. This is full blown 'back to the drawing board' stuff, which is what Labour need at the moment.

[SchalkeUK]

Rando makes a few good points, but here in West Yorkshire I am constantly being told that if Starmer cannot demonstrate that he will tell the un-elected Union gobbies to shut it, he will not regain old Labour voters - most have had enough of their interference in the Labour way of trying to fight Johnson's inability to tell the truth whilst still being beholden to the old guard of Trade Union 'bosses'.  I used to work for Wakefield Council when they were 63-2 Labour controlled and look at them now!  That alone should be a warning with guys like Box running the show.  It will be interested to see if, in an old-fashioned Labour area, even Tracy can get elected as mayor against some really poor quality opponents.  If nothing else, this week will focus minds on serious efforts to sort things out before the 2022 elections.

[Honey Honey]

I actually don't think a Labour loss in Hartlepool at this moment in time is necessarily bad or crisis worthy. What is however is the manner of the loss.

Labour was always unlikely to win Hartlepool. However the loss should not have been that bad. You've really got to be looking at the ground campaign there and that includes the Tory one, with Johnson turning up twice. Labour sent a known ardent remainer to a 70% leave seat, someone who lost their seat elsewhere in 2019 and had recommended taking NHS services away from Hartlepool. After a year of talk about needing to rebuild trust did a candidate genuinely just get selected because they have Dr in their name and that might land well in a pandemic? People trust doctors. Fuck me. 

Labour is tactically being destroyed. Absolutely pounded. It is beyond a joke. Can't even get the basics right.

[RandoEFC+]

7 minutes ago, SkyBruce Championship said:

I actually don't think a Labour loss in Hartlepool at this moment in time is necessarily bad or crisis worthy. What is however is the manner of the loss.

Labour was always unlikely to win Hartlepool. However the loss should not have been that bad. You've really got to be looking at the ground campaign there and that includes the Tory one, with Johnson turning up twice. Labour sent a known ardent remainer to a 70% leave seat, someone who lost their seat elsewhere in 2019 and had recommended taking NHS services away from Hartlepool. After a year of talk about needing to rebuild trust did a candidate genuinely just get selected because they have Dr in their name and that might land well in a pandemic? People trust doctors. Fuck me. 

Labour is tactically being destroyed. Absolutely pounded. It is beyond a joke. Can't even get the basics right.

All of this is true, indeed there was a stink when the selection process was basically rigged so that this guy was forced upon Hartlepool as their candidate after Starmer explicitly pledged to retain the open and democratic process where the membership would be heavily involved in the selection of candidates. The same thing happened when Labour's central management interfered with the selection of the Liverpool mayoral candidate after Joe Anderson was forced to step down. What's worse is that this doesn't even cover half of the reasons why they've lost and lost so heavily. There are massive issues at a micro-level specific to Hartlepool and the candidate in question, you can see from the results across the rest of the Tees Valley and North East that there are massive issues for Labour specific to that region, and the cherry on top is the massive issues that Labour have at a national level. The odds are so heavily stacked against them, much of it self-inflicted, whichever angle you look at it from.

I don't even feel massive loyalty to the Labour Party. If anything, my idealistic vote would go to the Greens, but for anyone who wants to see a progressive government of any type any time soon, Labour's failure is becoming increasingly painful to watch. It's no wonder youth turnout is dipping again when all their best hope has to offer is depressing defeat again and again.

[LFCMike]

Just looking at the numbers for the last three elections in Hartlepool. It's not even like there's been a surge in Tory votes. It's just a complete Labour collapse

[SchalkeUK]

Problem continues - the BBC spending time giving McClusky airspace before any other Labour genuinely elected spokespersons - that and copying the latest Corbyn statement will probably turn off another few thousand!

[LFCMike]

1 hour ago, SchalkeUK said:

Problem continues - the BBC spending time giving McClusky airspace before any other Labour genuinely elected spokespersons - that and copying the latest Corbyn statement will probably turn off another few thousand!

Mandelson was spouting shite on the BBC earlier

[SchalkeUK]

Just seen the Scottish Labour leader talking about his efforts to sort things out - great advert for sense and a new form of politics - need to keep an eye on this guy!

[Spike]

I'd vote for Scottish independence tbqh

[RandoEFC+]

10 minutes ago, SchalkeUK said:

Just seen the Scottish Labour leader talking about his efforts to sort things out - great advert for sense and a new form of politics - need to keep an eye on this guy!

Been impressed by Anas Sarwar too. Comes across as a sensible and genuine guy. Scottish politics is in deadlock because of independence though, I wonder whether a second independence referendum with pro-independence losing again would end the debate for the foreseeable future. Even if it did, it's hard to see either Labour or the Tories making much ground in Scotland. Another thing Labour need to do if they're going to get anywhere near government again.

[RandoEFC+]

The postal votes will bail Khan out but even this is too close for comfort for Labour. Lack of turnout the problem here most likely.

[RandoEFC+]

Mad to see that not far north of the Tories demolishing Labour in the North East of England, Tories are tactically voting for Labour, and vice versa, to get unionists into seats in Scottish Parliament, while in Wales, Labour are actually having a really strong set of results.

SNP have made some gains but not enough to sneak a majority. They can still form a pro-Independence majority with the Greens though.

Salmond's party haven't polled well and appear to be basically irrelevant.

Edited May 7, 2021 by RandoEFC

[Azeem]

7 hours ago, Spike said:

I'd vote for Scottish independence tbqh

Most independence movements are fringe and only create pity violence so I'm generally sceptical of them but if they are popular like 40+% than I'm all for them if it stays like that. 

[RandoEFC+]

This is surely not the answer. Growing increasingly convinced that Starmer won't be leading Labour into the 2024 general election.

[DeadLinesman]

1 minute ago, RandoEFC said:

This is surely not the answer. Growing increasingly convinced that Starmer won't be leading Labour into the 2024 general election.

I can only see it being Andy Burnham if I’m honest.

[RandoEFC+]

2 minutes ago, DeadLinesman said:

I can only see it being Andy Burnham if I’m honest.

I think he might be the man for the job. They need to win back a significant amount of the Northern vote without alienating the voters they're gaining down South (they just won the Cambridgeshire mayoralty off the Tories in the last hour or two which is a nice little gain but minor compared to the problems elsewhere). However he just said on camera today after his own crushing success that he'll fulfil a full term as mayor of Greater Manchester which takes him past the next general election. Left the door open for another run at the leadership down the line though.

Welsh Labour did well, it must be said. Their success in Wales is actually even higher than the SNP success in Scotland.

[DeadLinesman]

2 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

I think he might be the man for the job. They need to win back a significant amount of the Northern vote without alienating the voters they're gaining down South (they just won the Cambridgeshire mayoralty off the Tories in the last hour or two which is a nice little gain but minor compared to the problems elsewhere). However he just said on camera today after his own crushing success that he'll fulfil a full term as mayor of Greater Manchester which takes him past the next general election. Left the door open for another run at the leadership down the line though.

Welsh Labour did well, it must be said. Their success in Wales is actually even higher than the SNP success in Scotland.

Did the SNP or Labour actually end up with majorities? Or do they still need a helping hand?

[RandoEFC+]

Just now, DeadLinesman said:

Did the SNP or Labour actually end up with majorities? Or do they still need a helping hand?

Labour won 30 seats out of 60 in Wales so we'll see how that works, I don't know . But the SNP basically can't achieve a majority because they didn't gain some of the key seats. Both Wales and Scotland have this weird list and constituency system though that basically makes it almost impossible to achieve an outright majority, so the fact that Welsh Labour and the SNP are anywhere near shows how much support they have. The significant thing for Welsh Labour is that they increased their majority in seats that went from Labour to Conservative in the Westminster general election in 2019, especially flying in the face of Conservative gains and Labour losses in the English councils. Scotland is interesting too because the Scottish Greens are pro-independence and have enough seats, along with the SNP to give a pro-independence majority in the Scottish parliament - although the vote share in Scotland overall favours the pro-union parties by a whisker!

[LFCMike]

I have very little sympathy for Angela Rayner but is this Starmer 'taking full responsibility'?

[LFCMike]

Nandy is next apparently

[Spike]

On 07/05/2021 at 10:52, RandoEFC said:

Been impressed by Anas Sarwar too. Comes across as a sensible and genuine guy. Scottish politics is in deadlock because of independence though, I wonder whether a second independence referendum with pro-independence losing again would end the debate for the foreseeable future. Even if it did, it's hard to see either Labour or the Tories making much ground in Scotland. Another thing Labour need to do if they're going to get anywhere near government again.

Scottish Independence, if it wouldn’t go through now, it never will. How can they stomach being lied to that staying would improve their economy via staying in the EU, then have the carpet pulled from under them with the Brexit movement?  The UK is a relic of the past and should no longer exist, how can it be that silver-spooned Poms from the ‘house of lords’ can run a country split by vastly different cultures? The same goes for the Welsh, and the N.Irish are a lost cause.

I think our states have more independence than the constituent ‘countries’ of the UK.

[Stan]

Wants to be 'fairer and greener'

Travels on a plane from London to Cornwall

 

 

[RandoEFC+]

A particularly poor own goal but we all know it just doesn't matter at the moment.

[RandoEFC+]

Good lord.

[Stan]

It's just such an embarrassment he gets to represent our country. 

Cringeworthy.