UK Politics & Brexit Discussion

[Dr. Gonzo]

6 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

Not to mention the treatment of Diane Abbott. All so unnecessary and poorly handled.

Remember when some in Labour claimed Corbyn would push for purges due to ideological purity tests?

Seems like more a confession than an accusation at this point.

[Dr. Gonzo]

I wish Nigel Farage would just fuck off for eternity. But I guess he's decided he's not done trying to make things worse and is now going to stand in the election.

[Stan]

 

 

[RandoEFC+]

The worse the Tories lose, the funnier, but I'm starting to get worried now that if they end up dipping below 100 seats or something really bad, then Farage will be in a position to either take over the party in some grubby deal, or push Reform to become the biggest party of the right of centre. This would create a genuine risk that we'd end up with him as Prime Minister in 5 or 10 years depending on how long it takes for Labour to outstay their welcome in power. The Tories will never be palatable but I'd rather it be a David Cameron type character when the right eventually get back into power and not a Nigel Farage.

This all goes back to Brexit again. Boris Johnson purged all of the vaguely sensible Tories over Brexit in 2019 and when he inevitable disgraced himself one time too many, all that was left to replace him was "talent" like Truss and Sunak. They really need a steady, experienced politician to take over and just get them back on an even keel otherwise the door will be well and truly open for Farage to become the next right-of-centre Prime Minister of the UK.

[Stan]

6 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

They really need a steady, experienced politician to take over and just get them back on an even keel otherwise the door will be well and truly open for Farage to become the next right-of-centre Prime Minister of the UK.

Ironic because Starmer could be described as 'steady' considering he's not all bluster and waffling etc, but that's what he gets criticised for... 

[LFCMike]

Starmer is the next right of centre PM

[Azeem]

[6666]

12 hours ago, Beelzebub said:

The smear campaign reached levels of insanity and stupidity but the insanely stupid went with it.

[RandoEFC+]

About right unfortunately.

[LFCMike]

22 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

About right unfortunately.

About right indeed. Starmer's Labour and Farage taking loads of votes from the Tories (and Labour unfortunately ) just moves everything towards the right even further. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

19 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

About right unfortunately.

This is so accurate that it's painful

[Dr. Gonzo]

[Rucksackfranzose]

1 hour ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

To be fair, it's far from being the BBC only: Perhaps I'm unfair, yet under the impression media in general are happy to feign concern and outrage about far right opinions while simultanously giving them a lot of room for expression.

Edited June 10 by Rucksackfranzose

[OrangeKhrush]

The shift is due to people voting against inept policy, the less nation orientated the policy the harder the push back.  At this point far right means anything not far left.

Turkey joining BRICs is going to cause panic as well.  

[Dr. Gonzo]

2 hours ago, OrangeKhrush said:

The shift is due to people voting against inept policy, the less nation orientated the policy the harder the push back.  At this point far right means anything not far left.

Turkey joining BRICs is going to cause panic as well.  

Why would that cause panic? BRICS is a joke.

In the UK’s case it’s not really a shift due to people voting against inept policy. People ditching tories for Reform UK are only dissatisfied with the way Brexit panned out because they were lied to - and hopping back into bed with Mr. Brexit is just doubling down on their poor choices.

[Spike]

On 09/06/2024 at 16:47, RandoEFC said:

About right unfortunately.

Looked at this and tried to dispute it but couldn't. Centrists compromise to fascist and far-right.

[OrangeKhrush]

6 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Why would that cause panic? BRICS is a joke.

In the UK’s case it’s not really a shift due to people voting against inept policy. People ditching tories for Reform UK are only dissatisfied with the way Brexit panned out because they were lied to - and hopping back into bed with Mr. Brexit is just doubling down on their poor choices.

I fully expect like many a labour government but a recent whistle blower came out saying polls are suppressing reform votes and that other polling is showing reform beating the tories.   

Labour and the tories are just different cheeks of the same ass, can expect more of the same and super sized.

Brics is not a threat yet to the Petro dollar but it will.  Eventually to buy oil will require an exchange of currency at exorbitant rates to mitigate the exchange rate.  Furthermore it will mean sanctions will be meaningless as their is no dollar dependence but economies tied to natural resources. Analysts are warning of its threat to western currencies and it's worth being cautious

[Stan]

1 hour ago, OrangeKhrush said:

but a recent whistle blower came out saying polls are suppressing reform votes

Go on then, where's this from?

[RandoEFC+]

1 hour ago, OrangeKhrush said:

but a recent whistle blower came out saying polls are suppressing reform votes and that other polling is showing reform beating the tories

No they didn't.

Reform are polling lower with some polling companies who give the options of Labour, Conservative, Lib Dem or Other. After you choose Other, you can choose from Green, Reform, SNP, etc.

Other polling companies offer more options in the first phase including Reform. More people are choosing them in these polls, generally speaking.

Over the years, polling has generally actually exaggerated support for Brexit Party/Reform because a lot of their voters are "very online" and therefore end up over-represented in polling which is mostly conducted digitally now rather than over the phone. In the past, that's seen them end up with a vote share of about 8% when polling was showing them as 11%, for example.

Polling companies always have and always will use slightly different models and every poll has a margin of error. Nigel Farage was crying about this the other day as well because a couple of polls came out that had his party on 20% or so and then a couple of other polls came out putting them on more like 12-15% and he didn't like it. It's all in the methodology, how they weight undecided voters based on past patterns, and the dates and method of the fieldwork.

There isn't a conspiracy so the term whistle blower is inappropriate. I'm sure this is something you've seen on some alt-right YouTuber's latest video. Just remember that these people can say whatever they want on these platforms without consequence. When they make out that the "mainstream media" are covering something up, they're probably lying, and the reason the "mainstream media" are saying something different to them is because they're held to account by Ofcom and other legal requirements to at least be somewhat factual in what they publish. These far left and far right social media accounts that claim to be telling you "the real truth" are actually just saying whatever you want to hear because they know it'll make you click on their next piece of content and nobody will ever challenge their falsehoods.

[Stan]

@RandoEFC giving out teaching lessons in the classroom and on TF365. You love to see it. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

6 hours ago, OrangeKhrush said:

I fully expect like many a labour government but a recent whistle blower came out saying polls are suppressing reform votes and that other polling is showing reform beating the tories.   

Labour and the tories are just different cheeks of the same ass, can expect more of the same and super sized.

Brics is not a threat yet to the Petro dollar but it will.  Eventually to buy oil will require an exchange of currency at exorbitant rates to mitigate the exchange rate.  Furthermore it will mean sanctions will be meaningless as their is no dollar dependence but economies tied to natural resources. Analysts are warning of its threat to western currencies and it's worth being cautious

Mate BRICS uses the US dollar as its reserve currency.

It’s an incredibly weak economic pact where the actual economic powerhouses don’t actually share economic goals. Two of them are even direct competitors who aren’t even friendly in non-economic terms and even have an active border dispute. Erdogan is just courting them because Turkey’s not going to be allowed in the EU & Turkeys economy is so fucked they need some kind of relief, even if it means they make themselves prisoners to the Chinese debt trap.

Reform UK poll results probably are being suppressed, but Reform UK voters are just ex-Tory voters that have been pushed to extremes. I wouldn’t say them doing well in an election means anything other than tories are very unpopular and the most diehard believers in inept policy just wanted to vote for someone that wasn’t tory or labour.

[6666]

22 hours ago, OrangeKhrush said:

The shift is due to people voting against inept policy, the less nation orientated the policy the harder the push back.  At this point far right means anything not far left.

Turkey joining BRICs is going to cause panic as well.  

"Less nation orientated" is an interesting way of saying "not bigoted enough".

[OrangeKhrush]

19 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Mate BRICS uses the US dollar as its reserve currency.

It’s an incredibly weak economic pact where the actual economic powerhouses don’t actually share economic goals. Two of them are even direct competitors who aren’t even friendly in non-economic terms and even have an active border dispute. Erdogan is just courting them because Turkey’s not going to be allowed in the EU & Turkeys economy is so fucked they need some kind of relief, even if it means they make themselves prisoners to the Chinese debt trap.

Reform UK poll results probably are being suppressed, but Reform UK voters are just ex-Tory voters that have been pushed to extremes. I wouldn’t say them doing well in an election means anything other than tories are very unpopular and the most diehard believers in inept policy just wanted to vote for someone that wasn’t tory or labour.

India is the latest country to sell up their dollar reserve, it's a slow bleed with long term effects.  Financial analysts are concerned and it will gain traction. The st Petersburg economic forum was recently held and the theme was selling up the US dollar reserve.   It will not alone crash the dollar, it will however mean that to trade will require the dollar to be converted at mark up rates.  The interest is less exploitation but the long term will be a gradual slide in the dollar and rampant inflation with far to many dollars going around.

[OrangeKhrush]

12 hours ago, 6666 said:

"Less nation orientated" is an interesting way of saying "not bigoted enough".

Nations were created on the right of each nation to self determine and through it cultures, customs and practices develop.   

Globalism which is the leftist utopia is the destruction of nationhood and the establishment of a one over all.  Rejecting it is not bigoted, it is just rejecting the move back to empires and monarchs.

[OrangeKhrush]

On 11/06/2024 at 11:37, RandoEFC said:

No they didn't.

Reform are polling lower with some polling companies who give the options of Labour, Conservative, Lib Dem or Other. After you choose Other, you can choose from Green, Reform, SNP, etc.

Other polling companies offer more options in the first phase including Reform. More people are choosing them in these polls, generally speaking.

Over the years, polling has generally actually exaggerated support for Brexit Party/Reform because a lot of their voters are "very online" and therefore end up over-represented in polling which is mostly conducted digitally now rather than over the phone. In the past, that's seen them end up with a vote share of about 8% when polling was showing them as 11%, for example.

Polling companies always have and always will use slightly different models and every poll has a margin of error. Nigel Farage was crying about this the other day as well because a couple of polls came out that had his party on 20% or so and then a couple of other polls came out putting them on more like 12-15% and he didn't like it. It's all in the methodology, how they weight undecided voters based on past patterns, and the dates and method of the fieldwork.

There isn't a conspiracy so the term whistle blower is inappropriate. I'm sure this is something you've seen on some alt-right YouTuber's latest video. Just remember that these people can say whatever they want on these platforms without consequence. When they make out that the "mainstream media" are covering something up, they're probably lying, and the reason the "mainstream media" are saying something different to them is because they're held to account by Ofcom and other legal requirements to at least be somewhat factual in what they publish. These far left and far right social media accounts that claim to be telling you "the real truth" are actually just saying whatever you want to hear because they know it'll make you click on their next piece of content and nobody will ever challenge their falsehoods.

Brandishing alt right or far right which in most cases is objectively false is a means to try create extremism where there isnt.   I saw enough videos on st George's and veterans day to see how being patriotic is punished to know that there is a greater threat.   Labours policy is to bring in more immigrants, it is sold as "liberal" but the goal is to dilute nationalism which is not inherently bad to create a super majority and avoid constitutional process altogether.

The biggest cry is cost of living and collapsing social systems,  so how is bring in 3m immigrants who need to saturate social systems helping exactly?

Reform are being labelled to try scare voters, worst case they are center right.