UK Politics & Brexit Discussion

[Harry]

Is there any polling data on the leave or remain issue to give cause to think the majority opinion has shifted? If so by how much? 

[Guest]

6 hours ago, Harry said:

Is there any polling data on the leave or remain issue to give cause to think the majority opinion has shifted? If so by how much? 

I think polling data has suggested remain would win with about 56 percent

[Fairy In Boots]

6 hours ago, Gunnersauraus said:

I think polling data has suggested remain would win with about 56 percent

 

13 hours ago, Harry said:

Is there any polling data on the leave or remain issue to give cause to think the majority opinion has shifted? If so by how much? 

Still want out mate, if the gimp above thinks 51.9% of over 30m voters have changed there mind because a remain centric hissy fit they’re wrong. They can post as many pro remain polls as they want, Holding up a “strong remain” poll when the sample size is 1600 iron Bru swigging universal credit dosing Scots that are deluded enough to believe the EU gives a flying fuck about the national park at the top of England with a urban centres full of illiterate smack heads and a reputation for .

 All these political parties will be annihilated come the next election if they don’t deliver this. London is a different world once outside the M25 it’s still arguably the same as the referendum result based upon areas, I think a second referendum would invoke even more belligerence from the British voter. They would add a 3rd option to split the vote though no doubt. 

[Harry]

14 hours ago, Fairy In Boots said:

 

Still want out mate, if the gimp above thinks 51.9% of over 30m voters have changed there mind because a remain centric hissy fit they’re wrong. They can post as many pro remain polls as they want, Holding up a “strong remain” poll when the sample size is 1600 iron Bru swigging universal credit dosing Scots that are deluded enough to believe the EU gives a flying fuck about the national park at the top of England with a urban centres full of illiterate smack heads and a reputation for .

 All these political parties will be annihilated come the next election if they don’t deliver this. London is a different world once outside the M25 it’s still arguably the same as the referendum result based upon areas, I think a second referendum would invoke even more belligerence from the British voter. They would add a 3rd option to split the vote though no doubt. 

I remember leading up to the initial vote the flavor of this equivalent thread seemed to be leaning leave. It seems now that most here now lean towards it being a mistake. But many still think let's just get on with it now rather than vote again... interested whether those like @RandoEFC and @Stan who don't want a second vote would still vote leave if second referendum went ahead or if they'd begrudgingly take their chance away a do over. 

The way I hear it portrayed over here there's a pretty huge difference between leave with no deal and leave with the current deal. So you'd think a new vote would get a 1, 2, 3 preference on the 3 outcomes...

Edited February 27, 2019 by Harry

[Danny]

On 25/02/2019 at 22:23, RandoEFC said:

A second referendum is a good get out but does set a dangerous precedent for all future votes of any sort of similar nature.

Personally I think the best thing for the country could be to go ahead with a no deal Brexit and suffer like fuck for a few years. Right now we have a calamitous government who stumble from one failure to the next, an opposition party with a leader who did a decent job during the snap election but is in many ways unelectable as a prime minister, and a clueless electorate who are stupid enough to vote based on sentiment and which politicians they find the most charismatic than any logic or feasible reasoning.

We're so far down this road now that we deserve what we get. Just have to hope some of the idiots learn something along the way and wise up a bit.

Considering the shit show Brexit has led us to so far, and the illegality of the Leave campaign in the vote, I think there's enough there for a second referendum.

[Stan]

4 hours ago, Harry said:

I remember leading up to the initial vote the flavor of this equivalent thread seemed to be leaning leave. It seems now that most here now lean towards it being a mistake. But many still think let's just get on with it now rather than vote again... interested whether those like @RandoEFC and @Stan who don't want a second vote would still vote leave if second referendum went ahead or if they'd begrudgingly take their chance away a do over. 

The way I hear it portrayed over here there's a pretty huge difference between leave with no deal and leave with the current deal. So you'd think a new vote would get a 1, 2, 3 preference on the 3 outcomes...

I didn't vote leave initially. I voted remain and still would of there was a 2nd vote. 

[The Artful Dodger]

16 hours ago, Fairy In Boots said:

 

Still want out mate, if the gimp above thinks 51.9% of over 30m voters have changed there mind because a remain centric hissy fit they’re wrong. They can post as many pro remain polls as they want, Holding up a “strong remain” poll when the sample size is 1600 iron Bru swigging universal credit dosing Scots that are deluded enough to believe the EU gives a flying fuck about the national park at the top of England with a urban centres full of illiterate smack heads and a reputation for .

 All these political parties will be annihilated come the next election if they don’t deliver this. London is a different world once outside the M25 it’s still arguably the same as the referendum result based upon areas, I think a second referendum would invoke even more belligerence from the British voter. They would add a 3rd option to split the vote though no doubt. 

You're wrong about it being a different world outside of London, Birmingham is in fact the odd one out. Of all the metropolitan areas in the country it was one of the strongest for Leave, the great northern cities (Liverpool and Manchester near enough the same as London) near enough all backed Remain. Your disdain for Scottish people says more about you and your insular, bigoted mentality than anybody else.

 

Edited February 27, 2019 by The Artful Dodger

[Honey Honey]

8 minutes ago, The Artful Dodger said:

You're wrong about it being a different world outside of London, Birmingham is in fact the odd one out. Of all the metropolitan areas in the country it was one of the strongest for Leave, the great northern cities (Liverpool and Manchester near enough the same as London) near enough all backed Remain. 

 

This isn't true of metropolitan areas. It's true of the smaller inner city boundaries within a metropolitan area. 

If you look at the metropolitan then 7 of the 10 borough's of Greater Manchester voted leave. 5 of the 8 districts of Merseyside voted leave. 22 of Birmingham's 40 wards voted leave. 5 of London's 33 borough's voted leave. 

[The Artful Dodger]

50 minutes ago, Harvsky said:

This isn't true of metropolitan areas. It's true of the smaller inner city boundaries within a metropolitan area. 

If you look at the metropolitan then 7 of the 10 borough's of Greater Manchester voted leave. 5 of the 8 districts of Merseyside voted leave. 22 of Birmingham's 40 wards voted leave. 5 of London's 33 borough's voted leave. 

I haven't phrased that correctly, I mean cities proper. Merseyside includes boroughs like Knowlsey which includes St Helens absolutely removed from Liverpool both physically and culturally (no surprise it voted leave). Liverpool (City), Wirral and Sefton, which are the main areas of urban Liverpool, voted Remain. Merseyside is not synonymous with Liverpool, likewise Greater Manchester includes yokel places like Wigan which are culturally and physically separate from Manchester.

Birmingham as a CITY voted Leave, which makes it different. You're comparing counties with cities there, maybe my mistake in saying 'metropolitan area's but counties aren't automatically that either. London is also totally different from any other area in the country, because Greater London can be classified as one city in a way which Greater Manchester or Merseyside simply cannot.

Edited February 27, 2019 by The Artful Dodger

[The Artful Dodger]

6 hours ago, Danny said:

Considering the shit show Brexit has led us to so far, and the illegality of the Leave campaign in the vote, I think there's enough there for a second referendum.

How would you phrase the question and what is the barometer for victory, do you really believe a 55% victory for Remain would resolve it? The first referendum was the worst political decision ever made in this country, it's completely undermined our whole democracy, having a second one would not help at all.

[Honey Honey]

41 minutes ago, The Artful Dodger said:

I haven't phrased that correctly, I mean cities proper. Merseyside includes boroughs like Knowlsey which includes St Helens absolutely removed from Liverpool both physically and culturally (no surprise it voted leave). Liverpool (City), Wirral and Sefton, which are the main areas of urban Liverpool, voted Remain. Merseyside is not synonymous with Liverpool, likewise Greater Manchester includes yokel places like Wigan which are culturally and physically separate from Manchester.

Birmingham as a CITY voted Leave, which makes it different. You're comparing counties with cities there, maybe my mistake in saying 'metropolitan area's but counties aren't automatically that either.

It might not be that different. Digging a little deeper, Birmingham as a city, in terms of giving a result under that name, was based on around 450,000 votes.

Liverpool on the other hand as a city giving its result was based on 200,000 votes. Manchester similarly gave it's result as 200,000 voters.

Clearly the boundary of Birmingham is encapsulating substantially more and that may be distorting the result comparison. 

One thing common in all metro areas is that the suburbs were more likely to vote leave. The difference is not a surprise as there has been a significant demographic and social change in city centres with the rapid expansion of universities and service sector work.

I don't think the result given as Birmingham concludes for sure that it is somehow a truly distinct place.

[The Artful Dodger]

9 minutes ago, Harvsky said:

It might not be that different. Digging a little deeper, Birmingham as a city, in terms of giving a result under that name, was based on around 450,000 votes.

Liverpool on the other hand as a city giving its result was based on 200,000 votes. Manchester similarly gave it's result as 200,000 voters.

Clearly the boundary of Birmingham is encapsulating substantially more and that may be distorting the result comparison. 

One thing common in all metro areas is that the suburbs were more likely to vote leave. The difference is not a surprise as there has been a significant demographic and social change in city centres with the rapid expansion of universities and service sector work.

I don't think the result given as Birmingham concludes for sure that it is somehow a truly distinct place.

Manchester and Liverpool are severely underboundried to be fair, Birmingham encapsulates a far wider area whereas Liverpool and Manchester are very tightly drawn. If you include Liverpool's bordering urban area, (bootle, Birkenhead, wallassey, Crosby etc) the vote still remains Remain. Similar story in Manchester, although surprisingly Salford voted Leave.

It's clearly a mixed bag across the country I just resent this narrative that only middle-class wankers from London and the Home Counties voted Remain, it's not the case. The problem was that those middle-class wankers were the face of Remain and is why Remain ultimately lost.

We should set up free independent city states going forward.

Edited February 27, 2019 by The Artful Dodger

[Honey Honey]

37 minutes ago, The Artful Dodger said:

Manchester and Liverpool are severely underboundried to be fair, Birmingham encapsulates a far wider area whereas Liverpool and Manchester are very tightly drawn. If you include Liverpool's bordering urban area, (bootle, Birkenhead, wallassey, Crosby etc) the vote still remains Remain. Similar story in Manchester, although surprisingly Salford voted Leave.

It's clearly a mixed bag across the country I just resent this narrative that only middle-class wankers from London and the Home Counties voted Remain, it's not the case. The problem was that those middle-class wankers were the face of Remain and is why Remain ultimately lost.

Birmingham's vote was only 50.4% leave. When you add 250k of surrounding areas for Liverpool and Manchester to match the population sizes the result will gravitate to a very similar outcome. Birmingham isn't an odd one out. As for London, it is in effect a super size version of inner cities elsewhere in the country.

Geography isn't a very good predictor of vote and there's little evidence to suggest it has cultural impact within England or Wales. 

[RandoEFC+]

7 hours ago, Harry said:

I remember leading up to the initial vote the flavor of this equivalent thread seemed to be leaning leave. It seems now that most here now lean towards it being a mistake. But many still think let's just get on with it now rather than vote again... interested whether those like @RandoEFC and @Stan who don't want a second vote would still vote leave if second referendum went ahead or if they'd begrudgingly take their chance away a do over. 

The way I hear it portrayed over here there's a pretty huge difference between leave with no deal and leave with the current deal. So you'd think a new vote would get a 1, 2, 3 preference on the 3 outcomes...

I voted Remain when I still lived in England. If there was a second referendum I wouldn't have a vote as I live on the Isle of Man now but I would still firmly vote to Remain if I could.

It's not that I don't want us to Remain anymore, it's just that I'm so sick of fuckwits in the government and the electorate that I've given up on reason and just think we need the shit show of Brexit to teach the country a lesson.

And that's absolutely not to say that I think everyone who voted to Leave are fuckwits as a lot of them had totally valid reasons which I respect, but there's a small, vocal cluster of fuckwits on both sides of the argument, and I've just had enough of the ones who cry-arse about "Project Fear" when it was the Leave campaign that went down the route of using things like threats of Turkish immigrants and terrorists entering the country which will suddenly somehow stop in an instant if we leave the EU. There are equally hypocritical people on the other side of the debate as well.

These are the types of people who are so adamant about whichever side they voted for that it's become all about a personal sense of proving that they were right in the arguments down the pub rather than anything to do with immigration or economics or the country at all. They are the main ones that are still arguing about it because those of us who actually had reasonable arguments to make on either side are all argued out three years down the line.

Honestly my top priority is for the whole thing to just fuck off now and the only way that happens is to just pull the plug and see if we sink or swim. I can't be arsed with another referendum and all of the incessant coverage and debate over it.

Does anyone really think that another referendum will see the public vote based on factual evidence presented by both sides in a balanced debate this side? No. Both sides of another campaign would be comprised of poorly educated politicians in it for themselves trotting out what they think the poorly educated public want to hear to get them to vote for their team, and the poorly educated public will once again ignore anyone who tries to present a balanced, fact-based case for either or both sides in favour of whichever slogan or soundbite appeals to them the most.

[Danny]

4 hours ago, The Artful Dodger said:

How would you phrase the question and what is the barometer for victory, do you really believe a 55% victory for Remain would resolve it? The first referendum was the worst political decision ever made in this country, it's completely undermined our whole democracy, having a second one would not help at all.

At the very least it prevents an incoming no deal Brexit which will happen because of our governments disdain for Ireland.

 

[Honey Honey]

24 minutes ago, Danny said:

At the very least it prevents an incoming no deal Brexit which will happen because of our governments disdain for Ireland.

 

Wrong. The government supports the WA with the EU backed by the Irish government. Parliament rejects it. Key difference.

Evidence of disdain for Ireland in the purpose for WA's failure is sketchy at best.

[Danny]

1 minute ago, Harvsky said:

Wrong. The government supports the WA with the EU backed by the Irish government. Parliament rejects it. Key difference.

Tbh just meant Brexit politicians in general

[Honey Honey]

13 minutes ago, Danny said:

Tbh just meant Brexit politicians in general

Who is that? The ERG? All politicians who voted leave but against the WA? All politicians who have accepted that we should leave but voted against the WA?

The greater point really is that in parliamentary arithmetic the premise that no deal is "incoming" because of disdain for Ireland doesn't hold up.

[The Artful Dodger]

There is clear disdain for Ireland within the Conservative party, the whole 'Know its place' line is palpable, they think Ireland is just  former colony of no significance.

[Kowabunga]

Hearing May defend her deal with vocal fold nodules is rather tragic.

[CaaC (John)+]

The wife switched channels to watch her Eastenders and they had delayed the programme because they were going on about Brexit and the vote was rejected, the wife was not happy not watching her Eastenders at the given time.   

[Dr. Gonzo]

5 hours ago, Kowabunga said:

Hearing May defend her deal with vocal fold nodules is rather tragic.

Her Brexistential crisis is clearly taking a toll on her.

[Stan]

4 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Her Brexistential crisis is clearly taking a toll on her.

Lost authority.

Lost the vote tonight.

Losing her voice.

Now just needs to lose her job as PM and fuck off.

[Dr. Gonzo]

1 minute ago, Stan said:

Lost authority.

Lost the vote tonight.

Losing her voice.

Now just needs to lose her job as PM and fuck off.

On the one hand, I feel a bit bad for her because this is really all David fucking Cameron's fault - I think he has to go down as one of the worst British people in the history of Britain for this. On the other hand, it's her fault (and her party's fault) that we've spent 2 years of negotiation with the EU just utterly wasted and are 17 days from No Deal.

[RandoEFC+]

The writings been on the wall here for a long time. We're at a point now where we just have to wait and see what happens. I'll be amazed if there's significant change between now and the actual day of Brexit.