The Relegation Battle 2023

[RandoEFC+]

Bournemouth are still horrendous. They've just caught a few teams at the right time in the last few weeks. Fair play to them for maximising their opportunities but they're lucky there's so much other shite down there this season. They'll be right back down there next season.

[OrangeKhrush]

Southampton look toast and Leicester and Everton are looking devoid of any fight.   Leeds also looking perilously below.

Soton and two of Leicester, Everton or Leeds go down

[Michael]

4 hours ago, OrangeKhrush said:

Southampton look toast and Leicester and Everton are looking devoid of any fight.   Leeds also looking perilously below.

Soton and two of Leicester, Everton or Leeds go down

What about Forest? You don't even mention them, yet I said weeks back that I saw them as the side most likely to get relegated alongside Leicester City and Southampton. Forest also have some very tough upcoming matches. They look like they have a very big chance of getting relegated in my opinion.

[Lucas]

Southampton, Forest, Leeds.

Cannot see for the life of me how we show enough character and resolve to escape now.

I'm disgusted with this club tonight, truly utterly disgusted. They have sunk to a new low tonight and it's one we don't look like we can recover from.

It's going to get very ugly after the Leicester game next week. Vile atmosphere loading. The fans have had enough.

[Dan+]

Got a horrible feeling Leeds will go and do something wild like get Bielsa back in for the last few games to give them a lift and it'll propel them. They looked absolutely shocking though, we've got 1 point in our last 10 games and I'm going there thinking we ought to win and that's not just in the context of this season.

If Smith can't lift us to a level where we'll beat dross like that then I'll be terrified.

Just a point on Wolves but I saw something that surprised me a lot earlier - since they've appointed Lopetegui they're 6th in the table! Albeit a very congested table.

[RandoEFC+]

On 15/04/2023 at 11:26, RandoEFC said:

Southampton 85.7%

Nottm Forest 69.2%

Leicester 54.5%

Everton 30.8%

Bournemouth 26.7%

Leeds 22.2%

Wolves 6.7%

West Ham 6.7%

Crystal Palace 0.1%

After this weekend:

Southampton 92.3% (+6.4%)

Nottm Forest 77.8% (+8.6%)

Leicester 52.4% (-2.1%)

Everton 47.6% (+16.8%)

Leeds 28.6% (+6.4%)

Bournemouth 5.9% (-20.8%)

West Ham 4.8% (-1.9%)

Wolves 2.0% (-4.7%)

Crystal Palace are off the list now as their probability of relegation is now 0.0% to one decimal place.

Bournemouth unsurprisingly the biggest movers of the weekend in the right direction with an unexpected 3 points at Spurs while all of the bottom five were beaten. Everton's survival chances take the biggest hit unsurprisingly as Forest, Leicester and Leeds losing to Man Utd, Man City and Liverpool respectively was presumably somewhat priced in already.

[Dan+]

Everton's result actually made it an alright weekend for us. That result was better for us than Bournemouth's was bad.

[Fairy In Boots]

Everton On Dyche he’s meant to be hilarious on the training ground, builds squads of characters with strong mental toughness, and team spirit. Given the current situation I think he’s not got the time at the minute, if they go down they should stick with him though they need an overhaul 

[RandoEFC+]

Got to be at least somewhat mentally prepared for relegation but if the club are stupid enough to then get rid of Dyche ahead of next season in the Championship I genuinely don't know if I could stop myself from checking out emotionally.

[Dan+]

2 hours ago, Fairy In Boots said:

Everton On Dyche he’s meant to be hilarious on the training ground, builds squads of characters with strong mental toughness, and team spirit. Given the current situation I think he’s not got the time at the minute, if they go down they should stick with him though they need an overhaul 

I've been quite pro-Dyche for a lot of this season so I'm not just saying it because of that but he's got a really rough hand. That last week of their window was a disgrace.

[OrangeKhrush]

Chelsea are close to getting relegation odds

[Stan]

Sorry  @RandoEFC & @Whiskey, I have you down as relegated in this predictor I've just done . @Lucas, you're safe!

Got us down to beat Wolves, Leeds & Everton, but go on a losing streak vs Fulham, Liverpool & Newcastle. But safe before we even play West Ham on the final day. 

Got Leeds & Everton to win on the final day, but for the latter its too late because of the former's win...

[Dan+]

That's exactly what we did in the reverse fixtures coincidentally.

No outcome would surprise me now. I think we're as capable of powering out of this as I do totally flunking it further.

We never tend to do things a normal way.

[RandoEFC+]

45 minutes ago, Stan said:

Sorry  @RandoEFC & @Whiskey, I have you down as relegated in this predictor I've just done . @Lucas, you're safe!

Got us down to beat Wolves, Leeds & Everton, but go on a losing streak vs Fulham, Liverpool & Newcastle. But safe before we even play West Ham on the final day. 

Got Leeds & Everton to win on the final day, but for the latter its too late because of the former's win...

I'm a pessimist but if you've got us finishing on 30 points then that's us losing every single game apart from Bournemouth on the last day. I don't think we'll get nothing at all from Newcastle at home and the visits to Palace (on the beach ), Leicester and Wolves (on the beach by then ).

The loss to Fulham was a shite performance and result but we've still averaged over a point per game under Dyche having faced Arsenal twice, Spurs at home and been to Liverpool, Man Utd and Chelsea in that run. I'm not having that we're going to lose the next six in a row just because we let ourselves down against Fulham.

Sounds as if Calvert-Lewin is due to feature again this weekend as well. Would be great if he can even play 4 of the remaining 7 or something like that.

[Devil]

1 hour ago, Stan said:

Sorry  @RandoEFC & @Whiskey, I have you down as relegated in this predictor I've just done . @Lucas, you're safe!

Got us down to beat Wolves, Leeds & Everton, but go on a losing streak vs Fulham, Liverpool & Newcastle. But safe before we even play West Ham on the final day. 

Got Leeds & Everton to win on the final day, but for the latter its too late because of the former's win...

How you do that predictor, I'd like  a go?

[Stan]

1 hour ago, RandoEFC said:

I'm a pessimist but if you've got us finishing on 30 points then that's us losing every single game apart from Bournemouth on the last day. I don't think we'll get nothing at all from Newcastle at home and the visits to Palace (on the beach ), Leicester and Wolves (on the beach by then ).

The loss to Fulham was a shite performance and result but we've still averaged over a point per game under Dyche having faced Arsenal twice, Spurs at home and been to Liverpool, Man Utd and Chelsea in that run. I'm not having that we're going to lose the next six in a row just because we let ourselves down against Fulham.

Sounds as if Calvert-Lewin is due to feature again this weekend as well. Would be great if he can even play 4 of the remaining 7 or something like that.

And you lost to Chester .

1 hour ago, Devil said:

How you do that predictor, I'd like  a go?

https://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-premier-league/

[Devil]

17 minutes ago, Stan said:

And you lost to Chester .

https://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-premier-league/

Nice one.

[Dave]

I had Leeds and Leicester on 36 and both Everton and Forest on 34.

I did put Leicester to beat Everton, so if that match is a draw then it would be Everton surviving.

[Danny]

I'm sure this will be immediately wrong but this is how I see the rest of the season:

 

Leicester 37pts

Ev 34pts

-------------------------------------

Leeds 33pts

Forest 33pts 

Saints dead

[Devil-Dick Willie]

I have southampton as doomed, Everton and Leeds down, Forest picking up enough weird results to stay up.

[RandoEFC+]

I still have the sense we've got something left to pull out of the bag, an unexpected result somewhere. I'm no longer convinced it'll be enough. I think it's probably us or Leeds along with Forest and Saints. Bournemouth stringing a few results together has killed us.

[Dave]

If Leeds don't win there next two fixtures i do worry for them. Even if they get four points they'll still need to pull out a shock victory against better opposition to survive. 

They seem to have lost there intensity for Gracia in the last three matches and I'm beginning to worry for them.

[RandoEFC+]

On 18/04/2023 at 14:17, RandoEFC said:

After this weekend:

Southampton 92.3% (+6.4%)

Nottm Forest 77.8% (+8.6%)

Leicester 52.4% (-2.1%)

Everton 47.6% (+16.8%)

Leeds 28.6% (+6.4%)

Bournemouth 5.9% (-20.8%)

West Ham 4.8% (-1.9%)

Wolves 2.0% (-4.7%)

The perceived chances after yesterday with the bottom five having played already:

Southampton 88.9% (-2.9%)

Nottm Forest 81.8% (+5.0%)

Everton 52.4% (+4.8%)

Leicester 30.8% (-21.6%)

Leeds 30.8% (+2.2%)

Bournemouth 5.9% (n/c)

West Ham 3.8% (-1.0%)

Wolves 2.9% (+0.9%)

 

Leicester clearly the big winners from this weekend following the victory over Wolves. Their decreased probability of relegation is shared quite evenly between Forest, Everton and Leeds. The walls are closing in on Forest in particular.

Personally I think Leeds at 7/4 is a good price considering the manner in which they've lost the last three.

[Dan+]

I think everybody else down the bottom has feared that we could have an upturn and that at our best we are probably the best team down there. The assumption that we would pull out of it because of our squad was a lazy one given we had the most inept management in the league at the time (I mean he'd literally given up), take that out though and it's a valid point.

I think we'll be OK now - although cautiously, because it's so late on and the margin for error isn't big.

[Lucas]

4 hours ago, The Palace Fan said:

If Leeds don't win there next two fixtures i do worry for them. Even if they get four points they'll still need to pull out a shock victory against better opposition to survive. 

They seem to have lost there intensity for Gracia in the last three matches and I'm beginning to worry for them.

I've resigned myself to it.

Had a gutful Monday night tbh but yesterday was my last game of the season. I couldn't get anymore anyway now but if I was offered one, I'd leave it.

You can see in our body language we've raised the White flag. Don't see enough grit or fight in there and losing Tyler Adams has been absolutely massive.

Since we lost him, we've conceded 20 goals. The defence has lost that bit of protection and our midfield has fallen apart. We're just too easy to pass through. 

It's such a weird collapse from us and Gracia doesn't look like he knows whether to stick or twist in games.

WHEN we lose to Leicester Tuesday night, Elland Road will be ugly. Victor Orta should probably book a one way ticket to Palma Airport and go into hiding.