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Who Are the Luckiest Team in the Premier League?

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must be taken with a pinch of salt....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/45087444

Quote

 

Liverpool were the 'unluckiest' team in the Premier League last season while Manchester United were the 'luckiest', new research claims.

The Reds dropped 12 points in matches affected by wrongly disallowed goals or incorrect decisions on penalties and red cards, says a study conducted by ESPN, Intel and the University of Bath.

It says United gained six points over incidents that went in their favour.

Manchester City remain top in a new simulated table accounting for 'luck'.

However, the study found Huddersfield should have been relegated instead of Stoke when 'incorrect' refereeing decisions were taken into account.

It also found Brighton would have finished six places higher - moving up to ninth and earning an extra £11.5m in prize money on their return to the top flight.

Conversely, Leicester would have finished 14th instead of ninth, ending the season with £9.7m less in prize money.

Fourth-placed Liverpool would have swapped with second-placed United, and champions City fallen three points short of their 100 mark.

A research team collaborated with ex-Premier League referee Peter Walton, analysing footage from every game of the 2017-18 Premier League season and watching for:

  • Goals that should have been disallowed
  • Incorrectly disallowed goals
  • Incorrectly awarded penalties (that were scored)
  • Penalties that were not awarded but should have been
  • Incorrect red-card decisions
  • Red-card incidents that were missed
  • Goals scored after injury time overran
  • Deflected goals

Once incidents had been indentified, an alternative outcome of the affected matches was predicted, using a model that also considered factors including team strength, form, and home advantage.

For example: in Liverpool's 0-0 draw with Manchester United at Anfield on 14 October, the study concluded Jurgen Klopp's side should have been awarded a penalty in the 63rd minute, and the new simulated scoreline was a 1-0 victory for the home side.

Once the process was completed, the Premier League table was redrawn to reflect the new simulated results.

Premier League table 17-18   'Luck Index' simulated table 17-18  
Manchester City 100 Manchester City 97
Manchester United 81 Liverpool 87
Tottenham 77 Tottenham 77
Liverpool 75 Manchester United 75
Chelsea 70 Arsenal 71
Arsenal 63 Chelsea 70
Burnley 54 Burnley 50
Everton 49 Newcastle 48
Leicester 47 Brighton 46
Newcastle 44 Everton 44
Crystal Palace 44 Crystal Palace 42
Bournemouth 44 West Ham 41
West Ham 42 Watford 41
Watford 41 Leicester 40
Brighton 40 Southampton 40
Huddersfield 37 Bournemouth 38
Southampton 36 Stoke 37
Swansea 33 Huddersfield 37
Stoke 33 Swansea 34
West Brom 31 West Brom 33

 

The research team analysed over 150 incidents and also found:

  • Leicester scored three goals after injury time overran - more than any other side.
  • Huddersfield's John Smith's Stadium saw the most deflected goals - five. Two of those worked in the Terriers' favour.
  • Matt Ritchie was the 'luckiest player'. The Newcastle winger avoided two red cards, while a handball in the box against Leicester went unnoticed.

Assistant Professor Thomas Curran from the University of Bath said each game was simulated "thousands of times to model how it should have turned out".

He said the project was "one of the most detailed pieces of research we have ever conducted".

Former referee Walton added: "The results demonstrate the impact and importance of refereeing decisions on a game.

"With the Premier League deciding not to introduce VAR for the coming season, it is interesting to see how much luck plays a part in the way the league unfolds."

 

 

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The ‘finish above Man United in the Luck index simulated table’ another trophy for Liverpool.

Load of rubbish.

5 pages at least for this thread? 

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Spurs got more penalties at Anfield than we did last season. 

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16 minutes ago, LFCMadLad said:

Spurs got more penalties at Anfield than we did last season. 

Still rattled @Storts

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8 minutes ago, Marc said:

Still rattled @Storts

Don't think I'll ever get over it to be honest 😂

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Luckiest teams have to be City and Chelsea, their fans can't have any complaints at all considering what they were and what the oil money has done now 

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37 minutes ago, Marc said:

Still rattled @Storts

Luck 77 points - Actual 77 points - penalties vindicated. :ay:

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Fair enough looking at disallowed goals and penalties but I don't know how you can reliably interpret deflected goals, red cards, late goals in injury time etc.

For example, most people said Mane shouldn't have been sent off against City. City won 5-0 but only dominated after the red card, have they put that entire result down to luck there and called it a draw?

Pretty pointless research project anyway and pointless for me to waste my time giving it a critique, but people will probably think I'm being biased because it's Liverpool but there's no way any team are 12 points worse off than they should have been just because of bad luck.

In any instance like "Liverpool should have had a penalty and beaten Manchester United 1-0" you're completely ignoring the fact that if United go 1-0 down with 30 minutes left that forces Mourinho to stop parking the bus and makes United more likely to score. Also its United so you just know Fellaini gets above Lovren on a set piece and scores the 88th minute equaliser anyway.

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18 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

Fair enough looking at disallowed goals and penalties but I don't know how you can reliably interpret deflected goals, red cards, late goals in injury time etc.

For example, most people said Mane shouldn't have been sent off against City. City won 5-0 but only dominated after the red card, have they put that entire result down to luck there and called it a draw?

Pretty pointless research project anyway and pointless for me to waste my time giving it a critique, but people will probably think I'm being biased because it's Liverpool but there's no way any team are 12 points worse off than they should have been just because of bad luck.

In any instance like "Liverpool should have had a penalty and beaten Manchester United 1-0" you're completely ignoring the fact that if United go 1-0 down with 30 minutes left that forces Mourinho to stop parking the bus and makes United more likely to score. Also its United so you just know Fellaini gets above Lovren on a set piece and scores the 88th minute equaliser anyway.

It does say they simulated the rest of the match after those incidents were 'corrected', but I agree it's never going to be perfect.

I'm not sure about including deflected goals or goals after stoppage time has overrun, either. Deflected goals are a touch fortunate, but they're perfectly legitimate and they're the sort of thing that tends to happen if you have a lot of shots on goal. Stoppage time overrunning is usually deliberate on the part of the referee; if there's an incident in stoppage time, they can't officially add anything on, but they'll let the game go on a little longer to compensate.

I'd be interested to see a list of the decisions they overruled as well, because they can't all be cut and dry. The Mane red card you mentioned springs to mind, and also that Kane offside incident against us where Lovren miskicked his clearance. By the letter of the law (as I understand it) calling him onside was correct, but everyone knows that's not how the law is intended and that's not how it's usually interpreted. I think in this sort of exercise, there'll always be some unconscious bias towards overruling the officials on subjective decisions.

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Define luck. It’s ambiguous and vague. 

Football is open to interpretation and the referee’s interpretation is ultimately the only opinion that matters so talking about incidents like this is ultimately pointless. Penalties can tend to result in the showing of cards by the referee, is this taken into account? 

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24 minutes ago, Burning Gold said:

It does say they simulated the rest of the match after those incidents were 'corrected', but I agree it's never going to be perfect.

I'm not sure about including deflected goals or goals after stoppage time has overrun, either. Deflected goals are a touch fortunate, but they're perfectly legitimate and they're the sort of thing that tends to happen if you have a lot of shots on goal. Stoppage time overrunning is usually deliberate on the part of the referee; if there's an incident in stoppage time, they can't officially add anything on, but they'll let the game go on a little longer to compensate. 

I'd be interested to see a list of the decisions they overruled as well, because they can't all be cut and dry. The Mane red card you mentioned springs to mind, and also that Kane offside incident against us where Lovren miskicked his clearance. By the letter of the law (as I understand it) calling him onside was correct, but everyone knows that's not how the law is intended and that's not how it's usually interpreted. I think in this sort of exercise, there'll always be some unconscious bias towards overruling the officials on subjective decisions.

How are you lot still going on about this xD

He was onside - Lovren played him in - there's nothing more to it. However, it has absolutely no bearing on this 'research' because the penalty was missed anyway.

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1 hour ago, RandoEFC said:

Fair enough looking at disallowed goals and penalties but I don't know how you can reliably interpret deflected goals, red cards, late goals in injury time etc.

For example, most people said Mane shouldn't have been sent off against City. City won 5-0 but only dominated after the red card, have they put that entire result down to luck there and called it a draw?

Pretty pointless research project anyway and pointless for me to waste my time giving it a critique, but people will probably think I'm being biased because it's Liverpool but there's no way any team are 12 points worse off than they should have been just because of bad luck.

In any instance like "Liverpool should have had a penalty and beaten Manchester United 1-0" you're completely ignoring the fact that if United go 1-0 down with 30 minutes left that forces Mourinho to stop parking the bus and makes United more likely to score. Also its United so you just know Fellaini gets above Lovren on a set piece and scores the 88th minute equaliser anyway.

Really? I know there were some people who thought that but it was a clear as day red.

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34 minutes ago, Danny said:

Really? I know there were some people who thought that but it was a clear as day red.

So did I at the time, but it was debated pretty fiercely, maybe I'm misremembering.

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1 hour ago, Storts said:

How are you lot still going on about this xD

He was onside - Lovren played him in - there's nothing more to it. However, it has absolutely no bearing on this 'research' because the penalty was missed anyway.

Because it was a contentious refereeing decision and that's what this thread's about?

Like I said, by the way the law is written, you're correct, but that's not how it's usually interpreted (if ever), which is why I'd be interested to see how they called it. Forgot he missed it though xD

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The thing is goals change games. A team scores a goal they are not attacking so much. I mean Liverpool got very lucky against man city but i still think they would have won the tie without the decisions they got.

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no one took pinches of salt when reading this then xD 

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6 hours ago, Danny said:

Luckiest teams have to be City and Chelsea, their fans can't have any complaints at all considering what they were and what the oil money has done now 

Some of the football has been a bit shit.

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Liverpool definitely had some poor decisions against them last year but given the bucket loads of penalties they've had dubiously given, especially at Anfield, I have zero sympathy. 

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3 hours ago, Burning Gold said:

Because it was a contentious refereeing decision and that's what this thread's about?

Like I said, by the way the law is written, you're correct, but that's not how it's usually interpreted (if ever), which is why I'd be interested to see how they called it. Forgot he missed it though xD

A new one this. Referee criticised for following the laws of the game when other referees don’t 

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26 minutes ago, Burning Gold said:

You forgot to tag @Teso dos Bichos and @Storts mate

He doesn't need to mate - we get group chat notifications when any one of us posts 

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I’m sensing some jealously around here. A very ugly trait.

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