The Big Middle Eastern Thread

[Harry]

1 hour ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I'm scared for my family that's there  

I hope trump will show restraint.

From what I've read he basically resisted killing suleimani for a long while despite the urging of those within his circle that still resent Iran from the Iraq war days.

He knows he'll risk now being the guy who sends America into war again which is the total opposite of how he positioned himself and will for sure be apprehensive about the press coverage.

He's not giving a speech tonight so I think negative press coverage right now tonight is essential to the position trump will take tomorrow.

[Harry]

 

[Azeem]

No casualties in the missile attacks by Iran.

[Dr. Gonzo]

2 hours ago, Harry said:

I still haven't seen the comments of the Iraq PM reported in any western media source. I'd say Pompeo has marginally more credibility than the Iran Foreign Minister. But that's a huge indictment of how bad things are under trump. Normally you would believe your own secretary of state as correctly relaying the intelligence provided by their intelligence community.

Haven't the been rockets launched by Iran previously? What's different here?

Read up on their current Foreign Minister - some of the shit he’s said has got him in a lot of shit with Iran’s hardliners. And before he was ever in Iran’s government, he got his degree in the US - went back to Iran to get married and then the revolution concerned him - and he went to live in NYC & Denver. His kids were born in America.

He went back to Iran after he got his PhD, which was a thesis on when use of force is acceptable in international law - concluding only when force has been used on you. His PhD was centered around the Iran-Iraq war, and part of why he went back was he was disturbed about the US backing Saddam’s Iraq, while they were gassing Iranians.

He’s not Ahmadinejad, or anywhere near a hard liner (and was actually forced out of the government under Ahmadinejad’s tenure). For a member of the Iranian government, and a very high profile one, he is someone that’s publicly stated very different ideological beliefs to others in the regime.

It’s led him to be frozen out. He tried to resign after being left out of a meeting with Syria’s Assad, their foreign minister & Rouhani and Soleimani. His resignation was rejected by both Rouhani & Soleimani (who apparently had a say) - Khomeini was okay with him leaving as Javad Zarif is far too much of a reformer to him. But it’s weird to not have your top diplomat there while you’re meeting with an ally discussing military plans.

Iran has something like above an 80% voter turnout, that indicates that people who even hate their government believe their vote can make an impact. I think if Iran’s ever going to change, they actually have a decent political framework to go with - they just need to drop the supreme leader shite & the Guardians Council. And Zarif would be a good transition leader for Iran - and quite frankly I’m shocked he’s got such a high position in the regime.

I trust him a hell of a lot more than Pompeo, who has a long history of wanting war with Iran.

[Dr. Gonzo]

5 minutes ago, Azeem said:

No casualties in the missile attacks by Iran.

That’s very good news

[Harry]

7 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Read up on their current Foreign Minister - some of the shit he’s said has got him in a lot of shit with Iran’s hardliners. And before he was ever in Iran’s government, he got his degree in the US - went back to Iran to get married and then the revolution concerned him - and he went to live in NYC & Denver. His kids were born in America.

He went back to Iran after he got his PhD, which was a thesis on when use of force is acceptable in international law - concluding only when force has been used on you. His PhD was centered around the Iran-Iraq war, and part of why he went back was he was disturbed about the US backing Saddam’s Iraq, while they were gassing Iranians.

He’s not Ahmadinejad, or anywhere near a hard liner (and was actually forced out of the government under Ahmadinejad’s tenure). For a member of the Iranian government, and a very high profile one, he is someone that’s publicly stated very different ideological beliefs to others in the regime.

It’s led him to be frozen out. He tried to resign after being left out of a meeting with Syria’s Assad, their foreign minister & Rouhani and Soleimani. His resignation was rejected by both Rouhani & Soleimani (who apparently had a say) - Khomeini was okay with him leaving as Javad Zarif is far too much of a reformer to him. But it’s weird to not have your top diplomat there while you’re meeting with an ally discussing military plans.

Iran has something like above an 80% voter turnout, that indicates that people who even hate their government believe their vote can make an impact. I think if Iran’s ever going to change, they actually have a decent political framework to go with - they just need to drop the supreme leader shite & the Guardians Council. And Zarif would be a good transition leader for Iran - and quite frankly I’m shocked he’s got such a high position in the regime.

I trust him a hell of a lot more than Pompeo, who has a long history of wanting war with Iran.

True, though he does have motivation to try to damage the credibility of the US by painting the move as a political assassination rather than a military strike.

But his Twitter posts are articulate and well reasoned.

I personally don't harbour any particular feelings towards Iran. A country of their size should be a major player in their region so I have some sympathy to the people their having their potential quality of life curtailed by the isolation that's been imposed on them.

Particularly when you consider under the Obama era they were complying with their nuclear deal, and yet now they're on the point of war, this whole thing seems a categorical own goal by trump and the US.

[Panflute]

As it looks now that missile attack is probably the best thing that could've happened. Iran saves face in front of its own people by making some rockets hitting an airbase without any casualties, which allows America to not react and let hem off with some bombastic tweets by the president.

Edited January 8, 2020 by Panflute

[Harry]

 

 

[Azeem]

So it means

- Iran saves face by hitting a target without any casualties 

- US doesn't have to react cause no casualties 

- Trump's impeachment is killed and guaranteed another 4 years

- The protests against Iranian regime by the public are fizzled out in all this 

Wait a minute ! Could it be ?  

[Harry]

39 minutes ago, Azeem said:

So it means

- Iran saves face by hitting a target without any casualties 

- US doesn't have to react cause no casualties 

- Trump's impeachment is killed and guaranteed another 4 years

- The protests against Iranian regime by the public are fizzled out in all this 

Wait a minute ! Could it be ?  

No guarantee on Trump's second term mate. Like any president he has a decent chance but based on his approval rating he's the most unpopular president to run for re-election since Gerald Ford.

[Azeem]

I think it's all fizzled out now unless there is an attack from pro-Iran militia proxies there won't be any more escalation from US and Iran.

[Stan]

4 minutes ago, Azeem said:

I think it's all fizzled out now unless there is an attack from pro-Iran militia proxies there won't be any more escalation from US and Iran.

How do we know Trump won't order a retaliatory attack?

[Panflute]

1 hour ago, Harry said:

No guarantee on Trump's second term mate. Like any president he has a decent chance but based on his approval rating he's the most unpopular president to run for re-election since Gerald Ford.

Economy's good so he will get re-elected. The approval rating will come into play when the Democrats field an exceptionally strong opponent, but they won't.

[Carnivore Chris]

The real enemies on this planet are the USA and China. The world would be a significantly better place without either.

[Honey Honey]

Sure we had Soleimani on loan from Leicester here a couple of seasons ago 

[Michael]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51029994

Well it seems to be all happening in Iran right now. Nobody's mentioned the tragic Ukrainian International Airlines crash that sadly happened in Tehran, Iran this morning, where 176 people on board were killed. The official line so far is that it was a plane malfunction. But former Federal Aviation Administration accident investigation chief Jeff Guzzetti has said that the crash carried all the earmarks of an intentional act. Apparently the plane came apart before it hit the ground. Guzzetti claims the plane was deliberately brought down.

It is also worth noting that Ukraine's Embassy in Tehran initially issued a statement ruling out terrorism and they suggested likely engine failure. However, they later took down that statement without any explanation, which raises the question whether other possible scenarios are being explored. Moreover, it is strange that the pilot of the plane made no mayday call.

The Iranians have found the black box, but they have said that they will not hand over flight recorders from the plane to the aircrafts manufacturer or to the US aviation authorities. The investigation goes on.

The Ukrainian International Airline plane was supposed to fly from Tehran to Kyiv, but it tragically crashed shortly after takeoff. This plane accident has dominated the news all day here in Ukraine.

This accident happened a few hours after Iran launched an attack against US forces stationed in Iraq. Watch this space....

 

 

Edited January 8, 2020 by Michael

[Harry]

 

[Azeem]

The US base that was attacked

Edited January 9, 2020 by Azeem

[Azeem]

Two more rockets fell in US base green zone in Baghdad, no casualties as well

[Stan]

19 hours ago, Harvsky said:

Sure we had Soleimani on loan from Leicester here a couple of seasons ago 

Yeah and look where that got him

[RandoEFC+]

More speculation and reports now that the airline could have been shot down accidentally. The chances of an engine failure at the exact time missiles were being fired seemed suspect at best when it was first reported. I imagine we'll hear more about this.

[Cicero]

Mental 

[RandoEFC+]

I know we can only speculate, but seriously how the fuck does that happen? They fired about 14 missiles? Even if they were all in the sky at once, the chances of one of them randomly meeting a plane in midair seem negligible, surely? And wouldn't the Iranian military give a "heads up" to any airports that are anywhere near the firing line that they should hang on a minute because there's going to be a bunch of missiles in the air?

I'm about as far from an expert as you can be in this matter, but it seems to me to be really hard to explain this. Did an inexperienced Iranian soldier panic or just really fuck up and accidentally aim for and take out this plane? Answers on a postcard...

[Dr. Gonzo]

3 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

I know we can only speculate, but seriously how the fuck does that happen? They fired about 14 missiles? Even if they were all in the sky at once, the chances of one of them randomly meeting a plane in midair seem negligible, surely? And wouldn't the Iranian military give a "heads up" to any airports that are anywhere near the firing line that they should hang on a minute because there's going to be a bunch of missiles in the air?

I'm about as far from an expert as you can be in this matter, but it seems to me to be really hard to explain this. Did an inexperienced Iranian soldier panic or just really fuck up and accidentally aim for and take out this plane? Answers on a postcard...

The 14 missiles weren't shot anywhere near Tehran & were surface to surface missiles that fly pretty low (so they can get passed the US Patriot anti-missile defense system). So the missiles that were headed to those Iraqi bases with US forces weren't the same as the one that struck the plane.

So yeah, the most likely answer is some inexperienced soldier panicked and fired a surface to air missile when he saw a plane fly overhead. It's possible there was something wrong with the plane's IFF (Identify Friend or Foe system) - the technology that exists so commercial airliners aren't mistaken for military aircraft and constantly shot down, according to some pilot on the news this morning.

In any case, it's an absolute tragedy - because these victims are the real victims of the recent escalation in tensions. A few families, parents & their kids, were dead in moments. A lot of the people were Iranian international students in Canada that had been visiting their families over their uni's winter break.

It's completely mental that Iran didn't put flight restrictions out the night they'd just responded to the tension by firing missiles at the US and they were obviously on high alert for any sort of military response from the US - delaying all departing flights out of Tehran for a few hours seems like it would have been completely reasonable to avoid the risk of innocent people dying. But instead they didn't and they took that risk... and a lot of innocent people died.

Tbh when I first saw the video of it on twitter - I thought it was a missile that struck the plane and not a technical error. Just because it was a plane going down in a ball of flames.

[Michael]

16 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

The 14 missiles weren't shot anywhere near Tehran & were surface to surface missiles that fly pretty low (so they can get passed the US Patriot anti-missile defense system). So the missiles that were headed to those Iraqi bases with US forces weren't the same as the one that struck the plane.

So yeah, the most likely answer is some inexperienced soldier panicked and fired a surface to air missile when he saw a plane fly overhead. It's possible there was something wrong with the plane's IFF (Identify Friend or Foe system) - the technology that exists so commercial airliners aren't mistaken for military aircraft and constantly shot down, according to some pilot on the news this morning.

In any case, it's an absolute tragedy - because these victims are the real victims of the recent escalation in tensions. A few families, parents & their kids, were dead in moments. A lot of the people were Iranian international students in Canada that had been visiting their families over their uni's winter break.

It's completely mental that Iran didn't put flight restrictions out the night they'd just responded to the tension by firing missiles at the US and they were obviously on high alert for any sort of military response from the US - delaying all departing flights out of Tehran for a few hours seems like it would have been completely reasonable to avoid the risk of innocent people dying. But instead they didn't and they took that risk... and a lot of innocent people died.

Tbh when I first saw the video of it on twitter - I thought it was a missile that struck the plane and not a technical error. Just because it was a plane going down in a ball of flames.

I thought it was too much of a coincidence for this plane tragedy to have happened right at the time when US and Iranian tensions were at an all time high. It seems that unfortunately, it is the case that the plane was shot down by the Iranians.

It is indeed very sad that this has happened and as you said, the lives of families were ended in a matter of moments because of this act. Actually, most of the passengers were of Iranian origin, be they British, Canadian or Swedish citizens. It is such a needless loss of life.

It will be interesting to see what the Iranain response will be towards the accusations made that the plane was shot down by them. No doubt that they will deny it, but they are likely to be frozen out even more now, after this tragedy. The Ukrainian government for one, will be furious with this revelation.

I completely concur with your initial thoughts, on viewing this incident. I thought the same, when I saw the plane was in flames as it descended. But I thought the fact the pilot didn't even declare an emergency, to be even more bizarre. In any case, there will now inevitably be more heat placed on the Iranian government after this calamitous incident.