The Big Middle Eastern Thread

[Azeem]

Taken over Herat the third largest city and claiming to have taken Kandhar. The Governors of respective places are agreeing surrender settlements in return of safe passages.

U. S reportedly has agreed with the Taliban a safe passage for their diplomatic staff in Kabul. It's a matter of when it happens. 

Was Vietnam as big a quagmire as this !?

Read a piece by an American 'expert' that only way to stop Taliban is too ethnically target rural Pashtuns since they make the majority of them ! lol they refuse to learn

[Dr. Gonzo]

US sending troops back to Afghanistan...

[Dr. Gonzo]

1 hour ago, Khan of TF365 said:

Taken over Herat the third largest city and claiming to have taken Kandhar. The Governors of respective places are agreeing surrender settlements in return of safe passages.

U. S reportedly has agreed with the Taliban a safe passage for their diplomatic staff in Kabul. It's a matter of when it happens. 

Was Vietnam as big a quagmire as this !?

Read a piece by an American 'expert' that only way to stop Taliban is too ethnically target rural Pashtuns since they make the majority of them ! lol they refuse to learn

Vietnam was probably just as bad, tbh. They negotiated a ceasefire with the North Vietnamese in 1973, that was meant to keep the South Vietnam government in tact until the next election & a peaceful reunification of Vietnam...

... but that isn't what happened. North Vietnam violated the ceasefire in less than a year (which I guess, is not as quick as the Taliban acted). US troops stayed until 1975... but by 1974 there was basically full scale warfare again. While US troops were still being airlifted out of Vietnam, Saigon fell to the North Vietnamese.

[Azeem]

Ismail Khan the guy from northern alliance who fought the Taliban back in the 90s was brought back for defending Herat but he has agreed a settlement with them, gave out a video that he's being treated well.

Taliban are solely focusing on taking major capitals in the North to stop any Northern Alliance 2.0 from emerging. They are taking them by political back hand deals which were probably on going weeks before this. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

I just can’t believe how quick the Taliban are taking over, I thought it was inevitable… but I didn’t think it would be this quick.

It’s a bit frightening tbh.

[Azeem]

The local governors who were supposed to resist are being pragmatic. Firstly they had their own grudges with Kabul under Ghani and secondly the way allied troops are leaving people who helped them stranded. They are not willing to fight. 

It's always been like that in Afghanistan Taliban were once partners with US now enemies, warlords who were enemies of Taliban are joining them. 

[Azeem]

Siege of Kabul on the way. US helicopters are there to evacuate.

Tbh yeah it is way more quicker than anyone thought even if you take all the pragmatic things into account. From an estimate of 90 days but lasting less than a week !

[Tommy]

So sad for Afghanistan and the whole world. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

https://apnews.com/article/e1ed33fe0c665ee67ba132c51b8e32a5
 

that was quick

[JoshBRFC+]

Cannot believe how quick this has all happened. Feel for the civilians, poor people.

[Azeem]

Coming months will be important how new govt under Taliban is formed. Those governors who switched to join them must have some conditions.

And what their foreign policy would be. 

[El Profesor]

Interesting thread from an expert on the reasons of the fall of afghan government. 

Seems very similar to what happened to South Vietnam.

 

 

Edited August 15, 2021 by El Profesor

[Waylander]

Allegedly the US made a deal with Qatar to evacuate 8,000 people, with the rapid advance of the Taliban forces that may scupper their plans.

I would say politically this is embarrassing for the Biden government.

It was always a question as to how long the US could stay there and with Bin Laden allegedly dead arguably the War on Terror was over. Assuming of course this was about terror rather than something else.

It is hard not to feel sad for all those Afghans that were looking towards a more progressive Afghanistan which now looks to be heading instead towards a harsh Islamic dictatorship.

 

 

 

 

[Eco]

3 minutes ago, Waylander said:

It is hard not to feel sad for all those Afghans that were looking towards a more progressive Afghanistan which now looks to be heading instead towards a harsh Islamic dictatorship.

Look up the Iranian Revolution, as it may shock you. 

I have read reports of how Afghans are welcoming the Taliban in some areas, as it aligns more with their 'Anti-Western, more conservative viewpoint'. Similar to Iran, which was prospering and open, until the 70's in which a VERY POPULAR revolution took place which brought Iran back to the ultra conservative lifestyle. 

Not saying they are the same, but I am saying that the way of life is vastly different there and not everyone agrees with a progressive government. 

[Waylander]

18 minutes ago, Eco said:

Look up the Iranian Revolution, as it may shock you. 

I have read reports of how Afghans are welcoming the Taliban in some areas, as it aligns more with their 'Anti-Western, more conservative viewpoint'. Similar to Iran, which was prospering and open, until the 70's in which a VERY POPULAR revolution took place which brought Iran back to the ultra conservative lifestyle. 

Not saying they are the same, but I am saying that the way of life is vastly different there and not everyone agrees with a progressive government. 

Iran does not shock me, more disappointing it took such a radical turn though they went for a less corrupt regime than the Shah's many did not see how the Mullahs would come to control society.

Iran through its oil wealth has been able to modernise at least in the cities, it is even building its own fighter planes based on reversed engineered F-14s ( I think) certainly not the current F-35s which appear to have been plagued by problems.

Afghanistan did not have oil wealth though some got very rich from opium production under the US occupation. 

China is supposedly negotiating with the Taliban to get permission to undertaking drilling and mining as it seeks out more resources.

In previous times there was a Northern Alliance that would fight the Taliban and Tajikistan is one of the countries that have provided men to fight the Taliban. This has not happened this time, thinking is their lifestyles have improved and not so keen on risking their lives.

Always wondered who was financing the Taliban forces and suspect another rich Muslim country. Guns, motorbikes and bombs all cost money.

Edited August 15, 2021 by Waylander

[JoshBRFC+]

[Stan]

Not gonna pretend to know much about what's gone on in Afghanistan but I feel terribly sorry for all the innocent people who will now have their lives changed for the worse with the Taliban in charge. A sad time

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

3 hours ago, Eco said:

Look up the Iranian Revolution, as it may shock you. 

I have read reports of how Afghans are welcoming the Taliban in some areas, as it aligns more with their 'Anti-Western, more conservative viewpoint'. Similar to Iran, which was prospering and open, until the 70's in which a VERY POPULAR revolution took place which brought Iran back to the ultra conservative lifestyle. 

Not saying they are the same, but I am saying that the way of life is vastly different there and not everyone agrees with a progressive government. 

The Iranian revolution was not initially a super unified movement. The Shah was unpopular with lots of people - from the ultra conservative to the very left wing. But not everyone envisioned the revolution playing out the way it did and there were a series of brutal purges to stifle opposition to the clerics who took power.

But it’s not as simple as “the people rejected a western way of life.” The Shah was unpopular for a reason, ironically for a lot of the same reasons the IRI is unpopular, he was a dictator (and one imposed on a country that used to have a secular democracy by world powers) - the IRI is just more brutal in keeping people in line. Maybe because they don’t care what the west thinks.

The two real similarities I see in Afghanistan with Iran and the revolution is: the western backed government was unpopular and untrustworthy. And: a lot of people are still scared shitless of what the future holds, because they’ve seen this film before. But like the IRI, the Taliban don’t give a shit what the west thinks.

The government was rampant with corruption & western backed warlords did things like call US air strikes on people they had personal grievances with. I understand why normal Afghans wouldn’t like them.

But I don’t understand the quick surrender to the Taliban, tbh. It was a brutal reign before, I suspect it will still be brutal the second time around. Regardless of how many claims they have “reformed.”

[Waylander]

28 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

But I don’t understand the quick surrender to the Taliban, tbh. It was a brutal reign before, I suspect it will still be brutal the second time around. Regardless of how many claims they have “reformed.”

There may be something strange going here that we don't understand.

I read the US had spent over $2trn on Afghanistan since 2001.

We have had news about Germany buying Russian oil, Russia getting out of the US$ and perhaps China has announced an intention to do the same  yet has not been made public. It might be something about cutting unnecessary costs in a hurry due to US economics.

 

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

35 minutes ago, Waylander said:

There may be something strange going here that we don't understand.

I read the US had spent over $2trn on Afghanistan since 2001.

We have had news about Germany buying Russian oil, Russia getting out of the US$ and perhaps China has announced an intention to do the same  yet has not been made public. It might be something about cutting unnecessary costs in a hurry due to US economics.

 

 

From the US perspective, I can understand it. Like you say, there’s bigger geopolitical fish to fry from their perspective… 

But I was thinking more from the perspective of Afghans, some cities being given up without a fight really. But I guess that says something about how Afghans felt about the legitimacy of their government after the US announced they would leave.

I certainly underestimated how illegitimate it was viewed, because I never would have guessed things would crumble so quickly.

[Dr. Gonzo]

I feel like this photo will go down in history 

 

[Inverted]

I think the brutal reality of Taliban rule in Afghanistan is that for the vast majority of Afghans who live in rural areas, Taliban rule makes little difference to them. In fact, once the Taliban take over they maybe even find that crime and corruption become a bit better. 

As we can see, the real fear is in metropolitan areas, where people make more use of their secular freedoms. Those people have a lot to lose, but ultimately they are a fraction of the population. 

If life under the Taliban really was a waking nightmare for most people, then they wouldn’t be able to take over so easily. 

[Azeem]

4 minutes ago, Inverted said:

I think the brutal reality of Taliban rule in Afghanistan is that for the vast majority of Afghans who live in rural areas, Taliban rule makes little difference to them. In fact, once the Taliban take over they maybe even find that crime and corruption become a bit better. 

As we can see, the real fear is in metropolitan areas, where people make more use of their secular freedoms. Those people have a lot to lose, but ultimately they are a fraction of the population. 

If life under the Taliban really was a waking nightmare for most people, then they wouldn’t be able to take over so easily. 

This. People are overlooking the class difference element here. 

[Azeem]

[Azeem]

Five people dead as American security forces fire at people at the airport.