The Big Middle Eastern Thread

[El Profesor]

IMO the exit from Afghanistan marks the end of the "boots on the ground" era. 

The US will continue meddling in the Middle East but with a more discrete approach. Airstrikes and drone attacks, the use of small elite units and mercenaries are here to stay. 

[Azeem]

Ghani gave out a video statement that he's in UAE for now, he left to avoid further violence. While his VP Saleh has declared himself President even replaced his picture with his own at the embassy in Tajikistan lol

Taliban and Masoud talks are likely to be held mediated by Abdullah, Hikmatyar. Masoud would want to maintain some autonomy in the North. 

[Azeem]

1 minute ago, El Profesor said:

IMO the exit from Afghanistan marks the end of the "boots on the ground" era. 

The US will continue meddling in the Middle East but with a more discrete approach. Airstrikes and drone attacks, the use of small elite units and mercenaries are here to stay. 

In Middle East yes but as many are suspecting now they'll focus on Far East and China

[Azeem]

Quite bold remarks by British Chief of Defence quite early about giving Taliban a chance. While I totally agree with him on the part where he was clear cut that they are indigenous people of their lands deep rooted in it something Western leaders took long to accept.

That's something I think actual military folks knew from the start but politicians like Blair, Bush rushed things

[Waylander]

Yes when the US said they were after Bin Laden the Taliban said show us the evidence and we will hand him over.

That never happened instead the bombs and invasion.

Mark Curtis did an interesting TV program about events before 9/11 and it included details of the Neocons hosting the Taliban elders in Texas about proposed  oil piplines to be built and cross Afghanistan on their way to the richer markets of Pakistan and India. The Taliban refused this offer. If you look at the topography they would have crossed Helmand province where some of the heaviest fighting took place. 

Everyone officially denies it was about oil or gas pipelines instead it was about hunting a Saudi terrorist mastermind with advanced kidney disease.

If the pipelines had been allowed to cross Afghanistan I guess Saudi Arabia would have been the loser as these fossil fuels were coming from Azerbaijan and crossing the Caspian sea and so avoiding any bottlenecks near Suez or the Persian Gulf.

I find it interesting that we have staged some important matches in Baku as both Chelsea and Arsenal fans know.

[RandoEFC+]

I'm no expert on the Middle East but I understand enough to be thoroughly disappointed in the West at large and particularly Biden and the US.

[Dr. Gonzo]

2 hours ago, El Profesor said:

IMO the exit from Afghanistan marks the end of the "boots on the ground" era. 

The US will continue meddling in the Middle East but with a more discrete approach. Airstrikes and drone attacks, the use of small elite units and mercenaries are here to stay. 

I think drone strikes are somewhat inhumane (although probably a better option for any aggressor than sending in actual troops or aircraft to bomb someone)... but I still think that's a better option for everyone in the Middle East than past policy of "nation building" or backing groups of radicals that they then lose control of.

However, I doubt they stop backing fringe groups of weirdos. They're not going to stop in Syria - as far as I know... so they'll probably continue this policy of backing "opposition" in the form of radical weirdos & then be surprised in a few years when those radical weirdos turn out to be as radical and weird as they are.

[Azeem]

8 hours ago, Waylander said:

Yes when the US said they were after Bin Laden the Taliban said show us the evidence and we will hand him over.

That never happened instead the bombs and invasion.

They say US officials went to Afghanistan and showed a 40 minutes long video evidence as proof. The then Taliban Chief Omar after seeing said can you prove guilty based just on this in any American court ? He got no conclusive answer. 

Even apart from this that Scottish journalist Yvonne Ridley who remained under Taliban captivity first breaked that Taliban were ready to hand him over to a third party possibly the Saudis and whatever the trial decides they'll accept but she was not taken seriously at that time 'stockholm syndrome' but now it's quite accepted that offer was in place but Rumsfeld Kissinger wanted to show military might

[El Profesor]

17 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I think drone strikes are somewhat inhumane (although probably a better option for any aggressor than sending in actual troops or aircraft to bomb someone)... but I still think that's a better option for everyone in the Middle East than past policy of "nation building" or backing groups of radicals that they then lose control of.

However, I doubt they stop backing fringe groups of weirdos. They're not going to stop in Syria - as far as I know... so they'll probably continue this policy of backing "opposition" in the form of radical weirdos & then be surprised in a few years when those radical weirdos turn out to be as radical and weird as they are.

 

Biden gives me some serious Brezhnev vibes: a gerontocrat that came into power after a period of huge instability and whose main mission is to keep the illusion that everything is ok.

I might be completely wrong, but I see Biden more as a caretaker than as a proactive president.

I feel like the entire logic of his administration regarding foreign policy will be trying to stay away from and postponing any substantial commitment in money and in lives.  

 

 

[Honey Honey]

 

[Waylander]

18 hours ago, El Profesor said:

Biden gives me some serious Brezhnev vibes: a gerontocrat that came into power after a period of huge instability and whose main mission is to keep the illusion that everything is ok.

I might be completely wrong, but I see Biden more as a caretaker than as a proactive president.

I feel like the entire logic of his administration regarding foreign policy will be trying to stay away from and postponing any substantial commitment in money and in lives.  

I can't read either, just ideas.

Hard on the Capitol Hill protestors, prison beatings etc, one lost an eye.. Noises about further gun controls, likley to fail.

Foreign relations, surprisingly relented to allow Germany to buy cheaper oil from Russia.

Supposedly was intending to meddle in the Ukraine though suspicion is 'deep state' said China was the concern.

Belarus is wobbling and if it moves to a democrat state away from Russian influence would suit the older democrat ideals. 

China made aggressive noises about Taiwan as the US was pulling out of Afghanistan.

In other words still not clear.

[Dr. Gonzo]

Well so much for hoping for a "reformed Taliban"... in the past 24 hours we've seen: the Taliban banning women from being news anchors & the Taliban executing Hazaras.

I'm not really surprised though and I doubt anyone else is. I'm just surprised how quick the Taliban are going back to their old ways after attempting that PR offensive.

[Spike]

3 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Well so much for hoping for a "reformed Taliban"... in the past 24 hours we've seen: the Taliban banning women from being news anchors & the Taliban executing Hazaras.

I'm not really surprised though and I doubt anyone else is. I'm just surprised how quick the Taliban are going back to their old ways after attempting that PR offensive.

What is their popular support? Do Afghanis want the Taliban?

[Dr. Gonzo]

Just now, Spike said:

What is their popular support? Do Afghanis want the Taliban?

Some prefer the Taliban to the previous government, some really don't want the Taliban. There have been a lot of resistance protests in bigger cities (not Kabul though, but I think they're overrun with Taliban there) - the Taliban has of course responded with violence to those protests. Some areas are seeing people massing to join the Northern Alliance, who'll resume their war with the Taliban under the son of their previous leader (who was killed a few weeks before the US invaded Afghanistan). And there's reports that resistance fighters have recaptured parts of Afghanistan from the Taliban.

Pre 2001, Afghans were in civil war - some were okay with Taliban rule, some were fighting against it, others were just in villages with their tribes trying to live their lives normally as a civil war waged in their country. I suspect we'll see a return to that.

[Spike]

1 minute ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Some prefer the Taliban to the previous government, some really don't want the Taliban. There have been a lot of resistance protests in bigger cities (not Kabul though, but I think they're overrun with Taliban there) - the Taliban has of course responded with violence to those protests. Some areas are seeing people massing to join the Northern Alliance, who'll resume their war with the Taliban under the son of their previous leader (who was killed a few weeks before the US invaded Afghanistan). And there's reports that resistance fighters have recaptured parts of Afghanistan from the Taliban.

Pre 2001, Afghans were in civil war - some were okay with Taliban rule, some were fighting against it, others were just in villages with their tribes trying to live their lives normally as a civil war waged in their country. I suspect we'll see a return to that.

I see. It's just a continual civil war then, this is just another ebb in the tide.

[Dr. Gonzo]

1 minute ago, Spike said:

I see. It's just a continual civil war then, this is just another ebb in the tide.

Yeah, pretty much. And it's worth noting that some of the warlords in the Northern Alliance aren't great guys at all - they're some of the guys associated with the collapsed Afghan government's complete corruption & kidnapping and trafficking of children, and other bad shit like that. But others part of the new resistance are members of the ANA who want to keep up the fight against the Taliban.

And when we heard stories of so many soldiers immediately surrendering to the Taliban and letting them take over, it's worth pointing out that the notion the ANA genuinely had 300,000+ soldiers is looking increasingly like it was total bullshit and many sources are saying the Afghan military was about 70% smaller than it really was. Generals were inflating the size of the amount of troops they had when reporting to the US, so they could get extra funding from the US & allies... and then pocket a ton of extra cash. And many of those same generals were telling their troops to stand down & just go home when the Taliban approached their positions. It also appears many of the ANA hadn't been paid in months. So willingness to fight for generals who were essentially just stealing and who had no inclination to put up resistance to the Taliban was pretty low...

... but we're now seeing many of these former soldiers assemble in the Panjshir valley to join up with the Northern Alliance fighters. So one change to the civil war this time around is... we might see the Northern Alliance having better success with some better trained soldiers and maybe there will be some less shitty ideologies amongst the Northern Alliance so we see less of the bachebazi and other evil shit like that.

[Waylander]

I think we need to understand without the Opium Afghanistan is a poor country, so the Taliban will get support form Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.

The Northern Alliance will also need support as well so suspect the US in some way (CIA) will get funds to them to continue the struggle.

I guess when the Taliban surrounded the country it was the middle area that was last to fall, this is where the majority of the mountains are and also a lot of different ethnic groups.

I think there will be a civil war and stalemate with the Northern Alliance holding some mountainous areas and valleys. 

Will be interesting to see how China handles these parties as it seeks to undertake mining in Afghanistan.

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

1 hour ago, Waylander said:

I think we need to understand without the Opium Afghanistan is a poor country, so the Taliban will get support form Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.

The Northern Alliance will also need support as well so suspect the US in some way (CIA) will get funds to them to continue the struggle.

I guess when the Taliban surrounded the country it was the middle area that was last to fall, this is where the majority of the mountains are and also a lot of different ethnic groups.

I think there will be a civil war and stalemate with the Northern Alliance holding some mountainous areas and valleys. 

Will be interesting to see how China handles these parties as it seeks to undertake mining in Afghanistan.

 

The Northern Alliance are going to need support airdropped into the Panjshir Valley (which, I dunno if any of you have seen pictures of... and I literally know fuck all about warfare so maybe I'm wrong... but it looks like an incredibly good "defensive position" for anyone to take in any war) - but they're basically surrounded as they were before. I'm sure the US will find some way to support the Northern Alliance - either directly through the CIA, or by increasing aid to India - who'll then be providing that aid to the Northern Alliance (if the US has any need for "discretion" in their support for the Northern Alliance).

As long as they have food, ammunition, and explosives - I think the Northern Alliance will be able to defend the Panjshir valley... I don't believe the Taliban has ever had an air force and while they now have shitloads of US blackhawk helicopters (and probably other US military aircraft now) as well as drones they captured in their recent offensive - I'm not sure they'll be able to use them effectively against the Northern Alliance.

I agree with you though, I think it'll be a civil war that results in a similar stalemate to pre-2001 - the Northern Alliance will probably have de facto control of the north of the country, the Taliban will likely control the south.

You're absolutely right about the opium production in Afghanistan - it's their cash crop and their largest export by far. If the Taliban go ahead with stopping opium production, they'll definitely feel the financial impact. Regardless of whatever happens to the poppy fields though, I suspect Saudi Arabia and Pakistan will continue their support. I'm certain Pakistan will, tbh - they're a big part of the reason the Taliban is still around.

If I'm Xi Jinping and I want to get lithium from Afghanistan... I think the last thing I'd want to do is make an enemy of either the Taliban or the Northern Alliance. So my plan for navigating the situation would be "can I throw money at these people to make them alright with me developing infrastructure, mining the hell out of the country, and exporting everything back to China as cheaply as possible?" And then I guess it becomes a question of speaking with both sides of the conflict and seeing how much it would take to get those assurances.

And then even after those assurances, I think the biggest question on China's mind would be "can I trust the Taliban after throwing all of that money at them." And I'm pretty certain the answer is "No, you shouldn't ever trust the Taliban." So you're right, it'll be interesting to see what happens... but my guess is... it's not going to go that great for China unless they can get the Taliban to keep to their word.

And even then, throwing cash at both sides doesn't guarantee that either side will be happy about their enemy having newfound riches from the same people that pay you. But if China's ultimately got to roll their military in... I think they're for an unpleasant surprise - nobody enjoys wars in Afghanistan.

[Spike]

Perpetual war economy. That is probably how the intervening countries see it.I sincerely doubt they want an end to conflict, when they can milk war profits.

[Azeem]

4 hours ago, Spike said:

Perpetual war economy. That is probably how the intervening countries see it.I sincerely doubt they want an end to conflict, when they can milk war profits.

Just in by Wikileaks that Swedish Grippen manufactures wanted the bombing to increase for it's market value. 

[Azeem]

 

[Stan]

3 hours ago, Khan of TF365 said:

 

A prized cunt if ever there was one. Disgraceful. 

[Stan]

If any of you had the opportunity to take in an Afghani refugee, would you? 

If so, why? If not, why not? 

[Tommy]

Saw the story of a German-Afghan trying to get out of Kabul. He knew that most Taliban are illiterate, so when they stopped and questioned him, he just held up a red book and said that he's a German diplomat and has to return to Germany. They actually believed him and waved him through. What a man. 

[Azeem]

I can't find the video of the US Marine who made a documentary of the footages he captured during the war 'Combat Obscura'I once posted here. Same things mentioned in this article, direction less with no aim