Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak

[Burning Gold]

16 minutes ago, Stan said:

Who? 

Our government. It's more important for us to "flatten the curve" than most other first world countries because of our low-capacity health system, so we should be the ones implementing serious measures to slow it before such a thing is deemed 'necessary'. Or am I missing something?

Is it that flattening the curve to ease the burden on the NHS simply isn't feasible, so we're trying this other approach?

Edited March 15, 2020 by Burning Gold

[Bluewolf]

6 minutes ago, nudge said:

In China, the majority was between 30 and 69 years old (almost 78% of all confirmed cases). Here's the more detailed distribution:

In South Korea, it is mostly people in their 20s, 50s and 40s.

In Italy it's mostly people over 50, although there's a significant percentage of younger ones too.

 

I think the takeaway here is that pretty much all age groups are affected except children who doesn't seem to be very susceptible to it and are often asymptomatic. The differences between countries are probably the result of under which conditions the local outbreak originated. E.g. in South Korea the main cluster was that crazy religious cult; I think that's why they seem to have more younger people affected than the elderly. 

Thanks Nudge... Looking at that it seems correct then that younger people are the least affected but also rather surprisingly a lot of much older people are as well.... If you ignore the spike in South Korea the pattern seems the same... steadily growing from around age 20 peaking at around age 50-60 then starts to decline again... seems if you are older you are at most risk but if you are much older the risk seems less?? I wonder why the pattern goes in decline after reaching age 60?? I will assume that if you looked at all the stats for all countries it may reflect a similar pattern.. 

[Burning Gold]

3 minutes ago, Bluewolf said:

Thanks Nudge... Looking at that it seems correct then that younger people are the least affected but also rather surprisingly a lot of much older people are as well.... If you ignore the spike in South Korea the pattern seems the same... steadily growing from around age 20 peaking at around age 50-60 then starts to decline again... seems if you are older you are at most risk but if you are much older the risk seems less?? I wonder why the pattern goes in decline after reaching age 60?? I will assume that if you looked at all the stats for all countries it may reflect a similar pattern.. 

I'm guessing because there aren't as many of those people in the general population anyway

[nudge]

Just now, Bluewolf said:

Thanks Nudge... Looking at that it seems correct then that younger people are the least affected but also rather surprisingly a lot of much older people are as well.... If you ignore the spike in South Korea the pattern seems the same... steadily growing from around age 20 peaking at around age 50-60 then starts to decline again... seems if you are older you are at most risk but if you are much older the risk seems less?? I wonder why the pattern goes in decline after reaching age 60?? I will assume that if you looked at all the stats for all countries it may reflect a similar pattern.. 

I think it could be related to those oldest ones not being a part of the workforce, having less social contacts and being the least likely to actively participate in social life and activities. Less exposure = less chance to get infected. 

[Bluewolf]

11 minutes ago, Burning Gold said:

I'm guessing because there aren't as many of those people in the general population anyway

Not sure that's the reason... 

11 minutes ago, nudge said:

I think it could be related to those oldest ones not being a part of the workforce, having less social contacts and being the least likely to actively participate in social life and activities. Less exposure = less chance to get infected. 

This I would probably agree with... When you think of how a normal Saturday might go with Football for example you are normally on packed trains or coaches going to and from games, then in the stadium itself surrounded by large crowds then most normal people might enjoy a night out clubbing or drinking in a busy club or pub until late and the older generation don't normally partake in such things but the younger ones all the way up till your in your 50's + is normal and that's not also considering busy shopping centres, work and concerts etc.. The older generation may also find themselves more isolated in general with the odd visit from the family or the odd trip down the shops etc.. 

[Eco]

Couldn't help but think of myself, @nudge, and the other introverts in the world when I saw this story. This is the type of guy that doesn't have Covid-19. 

Quote

The Guy Who Wore A Giant Donut In Public To Enforce Social Distancing Is The Hero We Need

• In the markets of Rome, one enterprising man wore a huge circle of cardboard to enforce social distancing.

• Social distancing is an effective way to reduce viral transmission, and a physical barrier works even better.

• Let this hero inspire you to say no to things and enforce your social distance.

Not all heroes wear capes. Some wear huge circles of cardboard on suspenders.

A man in such an outfit has been seen in Rome, where the protective circle is a physical barrier method to enforce social distancing. Italy has experienced one of the highest concentrations of cases of COVID-19 coronavirus in the world so far, and the government has shut down all businesses and gathering places where customers can’t be guaranteed a full meter of buffer space.

While the original video is now private, The Independent says, “When the person filming the footage asks what the security measure is for, the man turns and replies matter-of-factly: ‘For coronavirus’.”

Indeed, in recommendations like those before last weekend’s L.A. marathon, there’s a subtext of how impossible social distancing seems in some situations. Thousands of people will line up for a race and stay six feet apart? Thousands of people will crowd, one empty meter at a time, into the packed marketplaces of Rome?

In a way, social distancing is a form of self regulation in the same vein as voluntary quarantine. Both are easy to fudge or altogether ignore when it’s convenient, and people around the world have been flying, dancing, and ignoring whatever they want—even when quarantine is the law in some instances. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends at least six feet of social distance, including for populations where people are “vampire coughing” and otherwise limiting their expulsion of droplets.

A 2014 MIT study found that while we already understood the trajectory of the larger particles in an unprotected cough or sneeze, the smallest particles end up propelled through space for a huge distance—a dozen or even 200 times farther than scientists predicted. Even so, our Italian hero’s donut of physical virus barrier will protect him from the bulk of airborne particulate and, maybe more importantly, the risk of being touched by someone with unwashed hands.

But how safe is that cardboard barrier itself? A new study has found COVID-19 might survive for up to 24 hours on even a cardboard surface. So if the man carries the barrier into his home and sets it somewhere, he could still bring the virus inside. Hopefully he keeps the donut on his front porch, but the startling image of a guy wearing a huge physical spacer is still a real life public service announcement.

It’s more important than ever for people to be assertive and protective about their space and the idea of social distancing, and that will include having to turn down invitations, stand up to peer pressure, and try to reason with those who insist precaution is “going too far.” Indeed, on the cusp of Pi Day (March 14), our hero has made himself into the scoop of ice cream on a cardboard role-modeling pie.

So when someone asks if you can still come have birthday drinks at a crowded bar, remember this man and just say no. And when you do have to run required errands or continue to go into the office, imagine having a cardboard barrier of your own as you decide where to walk and sit. These simple things could make a world of difference.

[Inverted]

I want to trust the government but my composure regarding our strategy is wearing thin. 

I feel like I vaguely understand the idea - delay the peak, but also get enough cases out of the way in time for winter when the situation could get a whole level worse, while protecting those who are really vulnerable. 

But I don't think it's been clearly communicated. We have ministers drip-feeding rationales and potential future measures to journos through unnamed sources, and then this news being put out behind paywalls. We have people hinting at herd immunity, and others saying it's totally irrelevant. 

And I think that when your expert advice leads you to a conclusion which basically involves doing the least amount of work, and it seems to contradict the advice in every other country, there is an added burden to clearly articulate your reasons, and to explain why you don't feel the measures taken elsewhere are correct. 

 

[Stan]

5 minutes ago, Inverted said:

I want to trust the government but my composure regarding our strategy is wearing thin. 

I feel like I vaguely understand the idea - delay the peak, but also get enough cases out of the way in time for winter when the situation could get a whole level worse, while protecting those who are really vulnerable. 

But I don't think it's been clearly communicated. We have ministers drip-feeding rationales and potential future measures to journos through unnamed sources, and then this news being put out behind paywalls. We have people hinting at herd immunity, and others saying it's totally irrelevant. 

And I think that when your expert advice leads you to a conclusion which basically involves doing the least amount of work, and it seems to contradict the advice in every other country, there is an added burden to clearly articulate your reasons, and to explain why you don't feel the measures taken elsewhere are correct. 

 

Careful of criticising the government on here. Some members don't take kindly to it

[Inverted]

9 minutes ago, Stan said:Careful of criticising the government on here. Some members don't take kindly to it

I mean, even being the raging pinko Marxist that I am, I don't think crises are something to be politicised. 

My gripe is more with the media culture in the country, and the sickening proximity of journalists with government, than the policy itself. 

[Stan]

Just now, Inverted said:

I mean, even being the raging pinko Marxist that I am, I don't think crises are something to be politicised. 

My gripe is more with the media culture in the country, and the sickening proximity of journalists with government, than the policy itself. 

I agree.

I mentioned it earlier. Got knocked down. 

[Mpache]

1 hour ago, Stan said:

What do you mean inflated? 

It's an average death rate. It doesn't apply for everyone.

What @nudge posted above is much more in depth and useful. Saying the death rate is 7% average doesn't tell me anything though. I need figures between ages and illnesses!

Anyways, I think I'm gonna stay in Peru lock down or not. At this point there are bigger worries than to go back home. The virus seems to become worse news by day and I'm fearing for me and my families lives.

[Mpache]

I'm sorry but people really need to understand what "non-essential travel" means.

My dad is trying to go back risking both our lives by going through an airport when we are staying at his mothers house, rent free for both. Even though there are factual statements by doctors and government officials that are telling people not to do so. He still doesn't get it. The attitude in people throughout this pandemic sickens me. Essential travel for me means going to do medical work or not being able to pay off the hotel you're in. We're doing neither.

[6666]

Unfortunately stumbled across the Hindutva cure for coronavirus... smearing yourself in cow shit and drinking cow piss is apparently the way to go.

 

[Mpache]

Hearing rumours that the Easter Bunny is about to call off Easter. I want my fucking chocolates  

[Stan]

1 minute ago, Inti Brian said:

Hearing rumours that the Easter Bunny is about to call off Easter. I want my fucking chocolates  

How old are you again?

[Mpache]

1 minute ago, Stan said:

How old are you again?

I was joking obviously, but in seriousness I still celebrate easter egg sunday. I just use it as an excuse for extra chocolate  

[Stan]

5 minutes ago, Inti Brian said:

I was joking obviously, but in seriousness I still celebrate easter egg sunday. I just use it as an excuse for extra chocolate  

Well done you!

[...Dan]

Long thread.

[Mpache]

3 minutes ago, ...Dan said:

Long thread.

About time someone spoke up. I was genuinely wondering about the experience from a survivor or someone who has it.

[Stan]

4 minutes ago, ...Dan said:

Long thread.

Good to read.

Not sure if I'm being stupid but I thought sneezing wasn't a symptom of this strain of virus and he mentions that the early parts of the illness she had involved sneezing.

It's a worry that they'd stopped testing? Is that a way of trying to keep case numbers down!?

[nudge]

2 minutes ago, Stan said:

Not sure if I'm being stupid but I thought sneezing wasn't a symptom of this strain of virus and he mentions that the early parts of the illness she had involved sneezing.

It's not a common symptom. I think in China it was only present in around 5% of the cases. Same with runny nose.

[Inverted]

I'm starting to think it's very prevalent now in the UK.

Yesterday we were at less than 100 cases in all of Scotland, and since then it's come out that there's 3 confirmed cases at Glasgow Uni, a confirmed case at Strathclyde University, and 6 confirmed cases at a carehome just outside Glasgow. So that's all just around one city, revealed by a small amount of testing. 

I'm pretty sure there's a carrier in most universities, colleges and large workplaces. 

[Danny]

Love how the big chains are selling out yet you go to any corner shop, any mini-supermarket that’s Asian or Polish owned and their shelves are stocked and ready to go yet you know most of those Costco shoppers wouldn’t even think to go to these places.

[Mpache]

Rant time.

As you know I am currently stuck in Peru. Flights haven't been cancelled yet but even if we do go on lock down today (which is what is predicted) this virus without even having it or knowing anyone that does is causing serious conflict between me and my parents who simply don't want to listen to me or medical advice. The Canadian government did order people to come back as soon as possible, but I think what my parents fail to realize is how dangerous an airport is. Even in a country with presumably 100 cases. So we're having strong disagreements. I care about protecting the society and helping it as much as I can, while they just want to go back home.

What's worse is that they fail to understand that we aren't paying $500 a night in a hotel. I'm staying with my dads mother ffs. We all have Peruvian passports and there is really more risk in going to the airport, possibly contracting it and passing it to more people. I'm being called a coward and being told by them that "it's just a flu" as well being told I read media sensationalism too much when all I'm giving medical facts that I've read by official health centres on the net. 

Pandemics can be avoided. It's not the connected world that causes it, it's the stupidity of people in the world and the stubborness. Nobody wants to listen to facts, and it gets on my fucking tits. I'm taking a massive risk in staying in Peru because of medications, but it's either being killed by withdrawal symptoms or coronavirus. The latter would spread if it doesn't kill me. I also told my mother who is in Canada atm to talk to my doctor. She doesn't want to.

Fucking pathetic. I'm tempted to turn this into a Twitter thread because this whole thing is sad to see.

[Mpache]

Official: Peru with presumably 71 cases has closed all borders, suspended all flights and we are in a 15 day quarantine. I'm glad common sense has prevailed. I just hope it's not too late. This also means I am stuck here but thankfully I'm not staying at a hotel so I don't mind it.