Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak

[Inverted]

Idk if this is a dumb question, but has the UK government actually done anything? I mean this seriously, I'm struggling to think.

Like, beyond giving "advice" and "warnings", have they actually implemented any measures in response to the crisis?

 

[Rick]

2 minutes ago, Inverted said:

Idk if this is a dumb question, but has the UK government actually done anything? I mean this seriously, I'm struggling to think.

Like, beyond giving "advice" and "warnings", have they actually implemented any measures in response to the crisis?

 

None. Pretending to be ahead of the curve, whilst remaining scarily non-committal. Spineless. 

[nudge]

 

[tlr]

Had my first proper shop today since us well-balanced, stiff upper lip, keep calm and... Brits lost our shit and purchased every non-perishable good in existance. Tried two supermarkets on the way home. First looked a bit worse for wear but only the usual had fully sold out. The second looked like it had been looted, toileteries, cans / tins and rice / pasta aisles absolutely bare and not much of anything else.

If I didn't laugh I'd cry. The absolute fucking state of it. Nice to hear of Lidl and Iceland having the first hour's trade for OAPs only, then you remember thr absolute weapons who landed us in that position to begin with.

I get people are scared, nervous, apprehensive, whatever. Sadly I also understand how that translates into self centredness, arrogance and greed. I can only hope society collectively gives its head a wobble before much longer. God knows we are in for a hell of a ride yet. 

 

[Stan]

20 minutes ago, Inverted said:

Idk if this is a dumb question, but has the UK government actually done anything? I mean this seriously, I'm struggling to think.

Like, beyond giving "advice" and "warnings", have they actually implemented any measures in response to the crisis?

 

No and that's the impression I got from today's press conference. A lot of advice but not actually implementing anything. Today's was the worst really as it was advice but contradictory at times.

[Stan]

Good comparison graph here on how each country stacks up against each other in terms of total deaths

 

[Stan]

 

 

 

[Honey Honey]

 

 

[...Dan]

57 minutes ago, Stan said:

As part of France's lockdown for the next 15 days, they've suspended rent, taxes and household bills.

 

For companies, not individuals.

[Stan]

1 minute ago, ...Dan said:

For companies, not individuals.

Thanks for clarifying. Didn't say that on BBC!

[Fairy In Boots]

I won’t name companies etc but I know medical ventilator companies in the U.K. and have worked with them on ventilators in the past. 
 

this idea that JCB could bang out medical ventilators in a week is madness, there’s rigorous testing and accreditation’s that need to be adhered to. It’s a PR stunt nothing more, bluntly we won’t be able to meet demand it’s too late

[RandoEFC+]

8 minutes ago, Harvsky said:

 

 

I just read this thread on Twitter.

Can somebody please convince me that we haven't wasted almost a week of thinking we know better "cause we're British something something Blitz spirit" when even us spanners with no medical expertise were looking at other countries and questioning why none of them were taking the same approach as us and sending us messages to do the exact opposite of what we've done? Because that's where I'm at right now.

[Stan]

Full article from that Buzzfeed tweet/thread

Quote

 

The UK only realised "in the last few days" that attempts to "mitigate" the impact of the coronavirus pandemic would not work, and that it needed to shift to a strategy to "suppress" the outbreak, according to a report by a team of experts who have been advising the government.

The report, published by the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team on Monday night, found that the strategy previously being pursued by the government — dubbed "mitigation" and involving home isolation of suspect cases and their family members but not including restrictions on wider society — would "likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over".

The mitigation strategy "focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread — reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe disease from infection", the report said, reflecting the UK strategy that was outlined last week by Boris Johnson and the chief scientific adviser Patrick Vallance.

But the approach was found to be unworkable. "Our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over," perhaps by as much as eight times, the report said.

In this scenario, the Imperial College team predicted as many as 250,000 deaths in Britain.

"In the UK, this conclusion has only been reached in the last few days," the report explained, due to new data on likely intensive care unit demand based on the experience of Italy and Britain so far.

"We were expecting herd immunity to build. We now realise it’s not possible to cope with that," professor Azra Ghani, chair of infectious diseases epidemiology at Imperial, told journalists at a briefing on Monday night.

As a result, the report — which its authors said had "informed policymaking in the UK and other countries in the last weeks" — said: "We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time."

A suppression strategy, along the lines of the approach adopted by the Chinese authorities, "aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely".

It requires "a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members", and "may need to be supplemented by school and university closures".

An "intensive intervention package" will have to be "maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more)", the report said, painting an extraordinary picture of what life could be like in the UK for the next year and a half.

On Monday afternoon, the prime minister drastically tightened the measures imposed on the British public — signalling the UK's move to a suppression strategy.

Everyone in the UK should now stop "non-essential contact" with other people and avoid pubs, clubs, cinemas, and theatres to slow the spread of the coronavirus, Johnson announced.

Families have also been urged to stay at home together for 14 days if any member is showing symptoms of the virus — a new, continuous cough or a fever.

Johnson said that anyone in isolation should avoid leaving the house "even to buy food or essentials" and should exercise outside the house only at a safe distance from others.

A government spokesperson said: “This is a very fast-moving situation. In order to give the most robust scientific advice SAGE [the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies] draws upon and considers a range of evidence and views to reach its recommendations. Part of this evidence includes the latest modelling data from a number of experts. All SAGE recommendations are in line with the best current evidence. We will be publishing further evidence shortly.”

 

Seems like a lot of the 'herd immunity' eggs were put in to the basket and now that basket is falling apart.

So I agree with @RandoEFC - what was sold last week as Britain being different, unique and over-confident now turns out we've gone backwards and now face a further uphill battle to combat all of this. 

[RandoEFC+]

2 minutes ago, Stan said:

Full article from that Buzzfeed tweet/thread

Seems like a lot of the 'herd immunity' eggs were put in to the basket and now that basket is falling apart.

So I agree with @RandoEFC - what was sold last week as Britain being different, unique and over-confident now turns out we've gone backwards and now face a further uphill battle to combat all of this. 

I enjoy the claim that "new data" is driving this change in strategy. It isnt new data. The data was there in the first place, the WHO told us we were being reckless as did most other developed countries.

We really are an idiotic country these days aren't we? I actually had half a hope that we might make sure we have an idea what we're doing now that we're dealing with an actual global disaster instead of the identity crisis that was Brexit. Now I just feel stupid and the voice in the back of my head is reminding me that this is the government that's in power because of a massive lie they printed on the side of a bus 4 years ago to trick idiots into voting to make their own lives harder.

Oh well, all you can do now is hope they get it right from here.

[Pyfish+]

Such an eye opening experience going to Morrison’s tonight. Hardly anything in!

In other news, officially working from home as of tomorrow onwards until further notice 

[...Dan]

26 minutes ago, Stan said:

Thanks for clarifying. Didn't say that on BBC!

Yeah, a lot of people misunderstood it. I don't think Macron was very clear when he said it.

Edited March 16, 2020 by ...Dan

[Toinho]

2 hours ago, nudge said:

I wonder what's the reasoning for that? Here they extended the service and added "contactless delivery" where they leave the stuff you ordered at your door in order to reduce exposure and limit the number of people going to grocery stores.

I imagine it’ll be back online soon but due to stock and those who need it the most they’ve decided to extend opening hours with the first hour of each day only available to those holding a seniors or health care Card. I predict home delivery and click and collect will be back soon but maybe for certain groups of people etc.

[Honey Honey]

[Stan]

5 minutes ago, Harvsky said:

That really doesn't surprise me!

[Honey Honey]

 

[Inverted]

The UK is perhaps the perfect example of representative government.

A nation of people far too desperate to be clever and happy to gamble with the welfare of those around them adopts a bizarre, laissez-faire policy expcting that it is somehow not like the rest of the world. 

The moment we realise that other countries might be right to react seriously, there will be a period of boneheaded denial, and then after that we will panic.

Edited March 16, 2020 by Inverted

[Mpache]

This place near my grandmothers house in Lima would normally have plenty of people. It is currently 6 PM which is rushhour.

This is what it looks since we've been put in lockdown.

There were more people in the grocery store.

And I started panic buying, but not for toilet paper  

[Stan]

3 minutes ago, Inti Brian said:

And I started panic buying, but not for toilet paper  

So that'll last about half an hour?

 

Not gonna lie but it looks like piss from a dehydrated tramp  

[Mpache]

Just now, Stan said:

So that'll last about half an hour?

I'd be shocked if it lasts that long.

[Inverted]

According to this fella at the Pasteur Institute in Shanghai, the team from Imperial College, that originally formulated the herd immunity strategy, worked on an assumption that herd immunity was developed in roughly 20% of those infected. 

He claims that the Chinese experience indicates that it is more like 5%, or maybe even 1-2%. 

Its like we reached for every assumption possible in order to arrive at a strategy which made doing nothing look like the smart thing. 

Edited March 16, 2020 by Inverted