American Politics Discussion

[RandoEFC+]

Nevada has narrowed, but it has been confirmed that the only votes left to be counted are (likely to be heavily Democratic) postal votes. Biden will hold onto those 6 votes.

Biden is currently a bit ahead in Wisconsin and a bit behind in Michigan. Michigan is closing. They're a lot closer to finishing the count in Wisconsin than Michigan. In fact, apparently Michigan is more of a sure thing than Wisconsin as the postal votes are the ones that need to be counted and so far they've been roughly 70-30 in Biden's favour. Biden is therefore likely to end up with both Michigan and Wisconsin, which along with Nevada would put him on 270, with the 4th and final electoral college vote from Maine going his way to take him over that halfway point.

Pennsylvania is the hardest one to call. Trump leads by 700,000 votes but one third of the votes are yet to be counted. Again, these are mostly coming from the likes of Philadelphia and are votes cast before Election Day, so should heavily favour Biden, but that's a massive gap to make up and there doesn't seem to be any clear consensus on which way this goes yet.

Trump will win Alaska, no question. He has a narrow lead in North Carolina and Georgia with most of the votes counted. Georgia is heading towards Biden but the ballots are running out and opinion is split on who is the slight favourite. North Carolina probably stays red. Georgia seems to be 50-50. Again, this one is hugely damaging to Trump as it starts to give Biden quite a decent electoral college majority along with the popular vote which looks like it'll just top 50% by the end.

I've just discovered why the three key states Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, are counting the early and postal votes after the Election Day polls closed unlike many other places which called a lot earlier than them. Well apparently the Republicans changed the law in these states so that these votes, which are likely to heavily favour Biden, would be counted last. This enables Trump to peddle this easily disprovable nonsense about these perfectly legitimate votes "appearing out of thin air" when usually they would have been counted earlier and given Biden (if he's won those states) a massive lead that Trump wouldn't have had enough votes to overcome. 10/10 to the Republicans for identifying this incredibly narrow route to victory, or at least the Supreme Court. 0/10 to the Republicans though for having any respect for democracy.

In summary, fuck me, this is about as close as it can get, and it's absolute madness.

Edited November 4, 2020 by RandoEFC

[Stan]

17 minutes ago, nudge said:

Wat

 

Wat. 

[Stan]

18 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

Nevada has narrowed, but it has been confirmed that the only votes left to be counted are (likely to be heavily Democratic) postal votes. Biden will hold onto those 6 votes.

Biden is currently a bit ahead in Wisconsin and a bit behind in Michigan. Michigan is closing. They're a lot closer to finishing the count in Wisconsin than Michigan. In fact, apparently Michigan is more of a sure thing than Wisconsin as the postal votes are the ones that need to be counted and so far they've been roughly 70-30 in Biden's favour. Biden is therefore likely to end up with both Michigan and Wisconsin, which along with Nevada would put him on 270, with the 4th and final electoral college vote from Maine going his way to take him over that halfway point.

Pennsylvania is the hardest one to call. Trump leads by 700,000 votes but one third of the votes are yet to be counted. Again, these are mostly coming from the likes of Philadelphia and are votes cast before Election Day, so should heavily favour Biden, but that's a massive gap to make up and there doesn't seem to be any clear consensus on which way this goes yet.

Trump will win Alaska, no question. He has a narrow lead in North Carolina and Georgia with most of the votes counted. Georgia is heading towards Biden but the ballots are running out and opinion is split on who is the slight favourite. North Carolina probably stays red. Georgia seems to be 50-50. Again, this one is hugely damaging to Trump as it starts to give Biden quite a decent electoral college majority along with the popular vote which looks like it'll just top 50% by the end.

I've just discovered why the three key states Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, are counting the early and postal votes after the Election Day polls closed unlike many other places which called a lot earlier than them. Well apparently the Republicans changed the law in these states so that these votes, which are likely to heavily favour Biden, would be counted last. This enables Trump to peddle this easily disprovable nonsense about these perfectly legitimate votes "appearing out of thin air" when usually they would have been counted earlier and given Biden (if he's won those states) a massive lead that Trump wouldn't have had enough votes to overcome. 10/10 to the Republicans for identifying this incredibly narrow route to victory, or at least the Supreme Court. 0/10 to the Republicans though for having any respect for democracy.

In summary, fuck me, this is about as close as it can get, and it's absolute madness.

It's weirdly exciting though. 

Like test cricket. Nothing is happening but everything is happening.

(I'm aware Test cricket isn't the best barometer as so many find it boring but if you know, you know!)

[Dr. Gonzo]

I think Americans should be ashamed of themselves that it’s this close.

Get me the fuck out of here

[Azeem]

4 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I think Americans should be ashamed of themselves that it’s this close.

Get me the fuck out of here

Crazy to see he's got more of a support than last time from groups he ridiculed time and time again. 

[RandoEFC+]

Big dump of votes in Michigan. Biden now only 12k behind. Looks like it won't actually even be that close. Well it'll be close, but it won't take until the last ballots to turn Michigan blue. The gap in Biden's favour in Wisconsin is also creeping up by a couple of thousand here and there. Nothing new from Georgia, North Carolina or Pennsylvania but even if they all stay red, it looks like Trump has lost 271-269.

[Toinho]

4 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

Big dump of votes in Michigan. Biden now only 12k behind. Looks like it won't actually even be that close. Well it'll be close, but it won't take until the last ballots to turn Michigan blue. The gap in Biden's favour in Wisconsin is also creeping up by a couple of thousand here and there. Nothing new from Georgia, North Carolina or Pennsylvania but even if they all stay red, it looks like Trump has lost 271-269.

Start mafia 

[Eco]

16 hours ago, Eco said:

Agreed. 

My state, Georgia, is certainly a battleground it appears. The votes will really start to take shape around 8pm EST tonight, and usually Georgia counts the rural votes first (which will lean heavily towards Trump), and it'll finish with Atlanta which should be massively Biden, so it'll be interesting to watch it all unfold. 

The goal is to reach 270 Electoral Votes, and so far, Biden is likely to be at 203, whereas Trump is 125 (based on history and voting patterns). I'm going to go on a limb and predict what I think each state will vote. 

The list of battleground states is below, with the number of electoral votes beside it. BLUE are Biden, and RED are TRUMP

Texas - 38 RIGHT
Florida - 29 RIGHT
Pennsylvania - 20
Ohio - 18 RIGHT
Michigan - 16
Georgia - 16 RIGHT
North Carolina - 15 RIGHT
Arizona - 11 WRONG
Wisconsin - 10 
Minnesota - 10 RIGHT
Colorado - 9 RIGHT
Iowa - 6 WRONG
Nevada - 6

Which would mean Joe Biden wins with 285, compared to Trump's 253. I have a feeling that Georgia and Florida will be blue tonight, and would literally be overjoyed if Georgia is in fact, Blue....but it'll be an interesting night for sure. 

So far, I have 2 wrong, 7 correct, and 4 are unknown as of now. 

Arizona was the biggest surprise to me. I was crazy to think about Iowa picking Biden but I was hoping. 

Right now, it's not looking too great for Biden. He is leading in Nevada and Wisconsin, which would give him 254. He is losing Michigan, Penn, NC, and GA at the moment, but all are so incredibly close. If Michigan and Penn turn for Biden (which is very likely), then Biden will become president. 

Also crazy to think that Georgia is not done yet, as Trump is winning with just over 100,000 votes with 94% expected turnout already counted, but most, if not all, of that left uncounted is early voting is metro Atlanta, which will likely be major Biden votes. 

Today and the rest of this week will be very interesting. 

[Eco]

What is shocking, sad, and incredibly disappointing is the fact that  Marjorie Taylor Greene got elected to Congress. 

Why is this shocking? 

She is an extreme conspiracy theorist, promotes QAnon (Conspiracy group that believe liberals run a massive underground sex trafficking ring, and also believes the world is improperly being run by Jews). 

[Inverted]

It's seems that the idea of populist right wing government is no longer a 'protest' option.

People have voted for it, seen it in action, and if anything experience of it has won voters. 

[Eco]

42 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I think Americans should be ashamed of themselves that it’s this close.

Get me the fuck out of here

No offense, but you are certainly free to leave as you aren't being held captive mate. 

Why would anyone think this would be a massive landslide either way. Politics here have been going extreme for some time now, so getting a Trump type figure elected absolutely makes sense and was a long time coming. 

[Toinho]

I’m confident Michigan and Georgia will end blue and that’ll be enough for Biden if he holds Wisconsin. Be a few days yet probably?! 

[Eco]

Just now, Inverted said:

It's seems that the idea of populist right wing government is no longer a 'protest' option.

People have voted for it, seen it in action, and if anything experience of it has won voters. 

Certainly agree. Trump still has the monologue of not being a 'politician'. 

And while I certainly like Biden and believe he'll be elected when it's said and done, I think the Liberals played the wrong hand (as they did with Hillary) as Obama was very polarizing here so picking his VP scare a lot of middle-of-the-road voters. 

This extreme right vs extreme left is incredibly frustrating and really is dividing this country.  

[Eco]

1 minute ago, Toinho said:

I’m confident Michigan and Georgia will end blue and that’ll be enough for Biden if he holds Wisconsin. Be a few days yet probably?! 

Haha, why are you confident in GA? If we voted Blue, it would be the first time in YEARS that Georgia wasn't a red state. I'm almost positive Trump will win Georgia just based on history and the fact that we had a major senate race between Perdue and Ossof, and it's not looking good for the liberals there either. 

[Stan]

6 minutes ago, Eco said:

This extreme right vs extreme left is incredibly frustrating and really is dividing this country.  

I do wonder if UK will be promoted to the top division of stupid if Biden does prevail and get elected. 

[Eco]

1 minute ago, Stan said:

I do wonder if UK will be promoted to the top division of stupid if Biden does prevail and get elected. 

Naw, I still (sadly) think Brazil will likely take the cake on that one. 

Sorry @El Profesor

[RandoEFC+]

Georgia is still possible for Biden as the postal votes close the gap for him but that gap is still around 100k and he would need there to be around 250-300k uncounted postal votes for there to really be a chance. I haven't heard people saying there's likely to be a significant number though.

Some are starting to suggest that the current trajectory in Pennsylvania as the postal votes are being counted point to Biden turning it blue. I'm sceptical. He doesn't need it though. He needs to take the lead in Michigan and hold Nevada and Wisconsin. Then he has the electoral college votes and he is President. Things are heading in the right direction for him in all three of those states and the markets are now making him a convincing favourite again. Anything else is just a bonus.

[DeadLinesman]

Why would people come out to vote Trump? I’m talking about these people that have never voted before? I can understand people saying “yeah, I know I didn’t vote before but fuck 4 years of this shit”. However, it seems to be “Hey, I didn’t care last time, but now I really do want to get dicked over!”

[Dr. Gonzo]

47 minutes ago, Eco said:

No offense, but you are certainly free to leave as you aren't being held captive mate. 

Why would anyone think this would be a massive landslide either way. Politics here have been going extreme for some time now, so getting a Trump type figure elected absolutely makes sense and was a long time coming. 

I’m sort of held captive by the lack of a national plan with covid.

Every day for the last 10 years I’ve woken up ashamed we have a Tory PM. I don’t think it’s too much to ask Americans to have more shame.

[Dr. Gonzo]

29 minutes ago, DeadLinesman said:

Why would people come out to vote Trump? I’m talking about these people that have never voted before? I can understand people saying “yeah, I know I didn’t vote before but fuck 4 years of this shit”. However, it seems to be “Hey, I didn’t care last time, but now I really do want to get dicked over!”

They’re the American version of window licking Tory voters tbf

[Dr. Gonzo]

They’ve also elected a 25 year old to Congress that I can best describe as a Nazi in a wheelchair who isn’t qualified to write laws for anywhere.

But he’ll legislate for federal laws

[Eco]

Just now, Dr. Gonzo said:

I’m sort of held captive by the lack of a national plan with covid.

Every day for the last 10 years I’ve woken up ashamed we have a Tory PM. I don’t think it’s too much to ask Americans to have more shame.

Complaining about something that you have the ability to change just seems like heading your head against a brick wall that won't move. 

I'm ashamed of my country having Trump as a president, but AT WORST, he can only be in office for 8 years, 4 of which he has already held and this country hasn't fallen apart yet. 

My sister is what I would call an extreme Liberal, and she already has plans for her and her husband to leave the country if Trump is re-elected. I'm not that extreme, but what I'm saying is that if you are so eager to leave (which you had stated numerous times), then leave and find happiness elsewhere. 

[Eco]

3 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

 They’re the American version of window licking Tory voters tbf

Completely unfair there. 

I'm don't know anything about English Politics, but there are some major politics views that align with the Republican Party. My Mom, a Conservative voter, is so because she believes that her values and morals align more with the Party. Does she like Trump? Absolutely not, but she is voting for the party and not the candidate, which is actually a pretty popular stance although i don't share it. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

Just now, Eco said:

Complaining about something that you have the ability to change just seems like heading your head against a brick wall that won't move. 

I'm ashamed of my country having Trump as a president, but AT WORST, he can only be in office for 8 years, 4 of which he has already held and this country hasn't fallen apart yet. 

My sister is what I would call an extreme Liberal, and she already has plans for her and her husband to leave the country if Trump is re-elected. I'm not that extreme, but what I'm saying is that if you are so eager to leave (which you had stated numerous times), then leave and find happiness elsewhere. 

Well I’d probably have to get a divorce as well, so it’s not exactly a decision I’m taking lightly.

It’s being strongly considered though.

I think America should be more ashamed of the senate. That there hasn’t been a widespread rejection of Trumpism means this is America’s right wing for the foreseeable future.

Their next president will be someone like Tom Cotton. As repugnant as Trump, but actually competent.

[nudge]

4 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

They’ve also elected a 25 year old to Congress that I can best describe as a Nazi in a wheelchair who isn’t qualified to write laws for anywhere.

But he’ll legislate for federal laws

Any relation to this guy, by any chance?...