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Russia and Ukraine


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I think part of the disagreement is that the Russian speaking population are in a small part of Donbass yet the Western media is suggesting Putin will claim the whole region of Donbass.

Russian says it will cut off Nordstream pipelines that goes into Germany.

German business interests are unhappy yet don't see that changing anything as before they were unhappy with the UK being pushed towards Brexit and were not able to influence their govt. 

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Read someone who pointed out that Putin has essentially expanded MAD to the point where a nuclear state cannot just threaten nuclear retaliation for any attack on its own territory, but also even for interfering with an invasion of a non-nuclear state.

So, while it maybe prevents wars between nuclear powers, it now makes every non-nuclear power fair game, essentially. 

He’s created an unprecedented amount of ambiguity over where the line is. Its worrying trying to think clearly about what range of actions Russia now counts as being worthy of nuclear escalation - sending troops? Sending air support? Trying to enforce a no-fly zone? 

Is Putin really willing to be vaporised if he can’t get a bit of extra territory or a friendly government in Kiev? Maybe he has one eye on what happens if he loses power. Maybe winning or losing is life or death in his mind.

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3 minutes ago, Machado said:

He literally said so in his "war declaration" speech.

 

I'm sure his public reasoning is "we don't want NATO missiles 15 minutes from Moscow". 

But I was also getting at the possibility that if his invasion failed, and the army and people lost confidence in the government, he personally isn't guaranteed a peaceful way out of government.

Russia probably could get out of this situation peacefully, but that route isn't necessarily open to Putin personally.

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23 minutes ago, Inverted said:

I'm sure his public reasoning is "we don't want NATO missiles 15 minutes from Moscow". 

But I was also getting at the possibility that if his invasion failed, and the army and people lost confidence in the government, he personally isn't guaranteed a peaceful way out of government.

Russia probably could get out of this situation peacefully, but that route isn't necessarily open to Putin personally.

Having autonomous zones in Georgia and Moldova seemed to be enough to stop them from ever joining NATO, I don't see why he had to go this far with Ukraine.

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16 minutes ago, Machado said:

In a matter of 2 hours they had missiles dropping in the whole of Ukraine, seem frighteningly organized. Probably prepared months ago. Think Merkel was low ley keeping Putin in check, seemed to be the only one he respected.

Yes, they hit so many cities, as you said, he will have had this all planned a while ago. Very, very sad times indeed.

 

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43 minutes ago, Inverted said:

I'm sure his public reasoning is "we don't want NATO missiles 15 minutes from Moscow". 

But I was also getting at the possibility that if his invasion failed, and the army and people lost confidence in the government, he personally isn't guaranteed a peaceful way out of government.

Russia probably could get out of this situation peacefully, but that route isn't necessarily open to Putin personally.

He mentioned that the city of Kharkiv in Ukraine could have missiles hit Moscow in 15 minutes or something, but the fact is that Latvia(a NATO country) is closer to Moscow than Kharkiv.

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19 minutes ago, Tommy said:

Very shocking that they're apparently attacking all of the Ukraine. I thought they'd atmost focus on Donetsk and Luhansk. 

 

From the range and scope of the initial missile attacks, I thought at first they were going to make a rush for Kiev along with an all out push from the Kharkov direction.

But the lack of word about major combat in the north seems to suggest maybe not. Given the relatively short distances involved I thought more would have happened by now if the Russians really wanted to get into Kiev.

Some are suggesting the Russians might be trying to create an impression of threat everywhere as cover for a more limited push in the Donbass. 

Edited by Inverted
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