I spent a bit of time looking at odds and implied chances of things happening because it does quite interest me. One thing I've always thought is that draws are a bit overpriced and even more strange, you often find games where the home team is 8/5 to win, the away team is 8/5 to win, yet the draw, a surely likely outcome implied by the fact the bookies themselves can't pick a favourite, is something like 12/5.
So I've started doing something where you back trebles of draws, always in games where the odds between the two teams are pretty tight. For a treble you get odds of around 25/1 at worst in this instances, and it's usually nearer 30/1.
Anyhow, so far, I've done five trebles, £5 each time. Two of them have won, and in total out of the 15 games I backed, 9 of them actually ended in draws.
Whilst I do take a longer term view here, I'm convinced landing those can't be as uncommon as that. I don't expect 40% of them to land, but I expect more than 4% of them to - which is what the odds imply.
I'm going to keep doing this and see where it gets me.