Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak

[nudge]

26 minutes ago, The Artful Dodger said:

Why? It's affecting what, 0.0001% of the population? Even in those it does it's mostly a cough and a sniffle, it is dangerous for the elderly and young, like any flu.

Because people in question work in industries that cater directly to Chinese tourists and expats + the medical care in the country is poor. With the Lunar New Year approaching, mass travel is to be expected and the chances of the virus spreading among certain groups increases, especially as it's adapting and mutating. Don't know if you remember the outbreak of SARS but it ended up killing around 800 people (mortality of 10%) and not only those who were elderly/young or had pre-existing health conditions. MERS has a mortality of at least 35%. This new strain comes from the same family of coronaviruses and appears to be more contagious. No need to panic but people who have a relatively high chance of being exposed to it are understandably starting to worry a bit.

[The Artful Dodger]

8 minutes ago, nudge said:

Because people in question work in industries that cater directly to Chinese tourists and expats + the medical care in the country is poor. With the Lunar New Year approaching, mass travel is to be expected and the chances of the virus spreading among certain groups increases, especially as it's adapting and mutating. Don't know if you remember the outbreak of SARS but it ended up killing around 800 people (mortality of 10%) and not only those who were elderly/young or had pre-existing health conditions. MERS has a mortality of at least 35%. This new strain comes from the same family of coronaviruses and appears to be more contagious. No need to panic but people who have a relatively high chance of being exposed to it are understandably starting to worry a bit. 

Yeah, sorry. I wasn't meaning to belittle your obviously very real concern. Just more the British press with headlines like 'KILLER VIRUS HEADING TO UK' do not help matters and are just preying on people's concerns.

The amount of people effected so quickly is a concern but still a fairly low death number of 17, it may well prove to be highly infectious but not so deadly. Hopefully.

[Dr. Gonzo]

2 hours ago, DeadLinesman said:

Think Liverpool need a mid winter break to Wuhan.

Think United need a mid winter break to a house fire tbh

[DeadLinesman]

1 hour ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Think United need a mid winter break to a house fire tbh

We’re already being burned to the ground. Pass the petrol.

[Dr. Gonzo]

China's shut down Huangang, as well as Wuhan, to stop the spread of the virus.

[nudge]

12 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

China's shut down Huangang, as well as Wuhan, to stop the spread of the virus.

Ezhou too (starting tonight).

 

WHO press conference right now: While it's a public health emergency in China, it has not yet become a global emergency. The committee was divided (almost 50/50) whether to declare this a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) but decided it's too early for that. Too few cases confirmed outside of China at this point and China is doing good work trying to contain the virus. Depending on the further development of the virus, WHO will revise their approach. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

Just now, nudge said:

Ezhou too (starting tonight).

 

WHO press conference right now: While it's a public health emergency in China, it has not yet become a global emergency. The committee was divided (almost 50/50) whether to declare this a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) but decided it's too early for that. Too few cases confirmed outside of China at this point and China is doing good work trying to contain the virus. Depending on the further development of the virus, WHO will revise their approach. 

Tbh, I don't know how you close down cities as big as Wuhan (11m people, I think) or Haungang (6m), or Ezhou (which is still pretty large at around 1m). There's reports that people have managed to sneak out of Wuhan despite the quarantine and I'm not surprised about that considering how big of a city it is.

Meanwhile, people in Wuhan (and the other cities) are still going to need food and supplies - so there will probably be distribution points where there will be massive groups of people. Infected people will be a part of those massive groups - and the groups are going to make it more likely for the disease to spread. I worry that the quarantining may actually make things worse - like Ebola quarantines did.

But that could just be me being a pessimist.

[nudge]

 

[nudge]

1 minute ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Tbh, I don't know how you close down cities as big as Wuhan (11m people, I think) or Haungang (6m), or Ezhou (which is still pretty large at around 1m). There's reports that people have managed to sneak out of Wuhan despite the quarantine and I'm not surprised about that considering how big of a city it is.

Meanwhile, people in Wuhan (and the other cities) are still going to need food and supplies - so there will probably be distribution points where there will be massive groups of people. Infected people will be a part of those massive groups - and the groups are going to make it more likely for the disease to spread. I worry that the quarantining may actually make things worse - like Ebola quarantines did.

But that could just be me being a pessimist.

Oh definitely; they might have suspended public transportation but people are definitely still coming and leaving. You can't possibly lock down almost 20 million people without imposing some sort of martial law.

Your second point definitely makes sense too. I've read a comment from some Australian virologist who was worried that the Chinese authorities might have “just created a large cell-culture dish in which all these people will share the infection and create a lot more cases all stuck in Wuhan”. 

[Honey Honey]

Is this outbreak linked to China banning Norton anti-virus software?

[DNA]

Masks sold out in Sheffield (massive chinese student population), b&q' etc wiped out, some rumours going around.. but seems quite an extreme reaction since the only reports in UK are coming from Scotland.

Edited January 23, 2020 by DNA

[...Dan]

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

30 minutes ago, DNA said:

Masks sold out in Sheffield (massive chinese student population), b&q' etc wiped out, some rumours going around.. but seems quite an extreme reaction since the only reports in UK are coming from Scotland.

A lot of people are traveling to and from China right around now because they've got their New Year coming up on Saturday - I can understand why a place with a large Chinese student population would be a bit paranoid about the disease spreading. They probably have family coming to visit, or have just come back. With the symptoms being basically the exact same as the common cold... I'd certainly be worried if I was coming into contact with someone who'd just been to China.

[nudge]

Latest update:

835 confirmed cases in China
25 fatalities
9507 in close contact with the infected identified, 1087 of those in medical observation and 8420 cases undergoing diagnosis now.

Travel bans have been imposed on eight cities now: Wuhan, Huanggang, Ezhou, Chibi, Xiantao, Qianjiang, Zhijiang and Lichuan.

At least four generations of spread confirmed. About a fourth of cases said to be severe.

Japan confirmed its second case.

 

[Mel81x+]

7 hours ago, ...Dan said:

 

I hope shes in quarantine now?

[Azeem]

2 hours ago, Mel81x said:

I hope shes in jail now?

 

[nudge]

3 hours ago, Mel81x said:

I hope shes in quarantine now?

They found her and she's in observation but it seems she isn't infected. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51231593

She's definitely not the only one who successfully avoided the checks. 

[Mel81x+]

32 minutes ago, nudge said:

They found her and she's in observation but it seems she isn't infected. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51231593

She's definitely not the only one who successfully avoided the checks. 

I am sure there are plenty of folks who are going places by bypassing checks and thats the biggest danger that no one can really circumvent. Forget about them flying out of the country they can't even control them inside the country so theres a bigger risk of the disease spreading locally and then breaching borders and then its literally unmanageable.

[nudge]

Early estimates and predictions from the Lancaster University

Key findings

- We estimate the basic reproductive number of the infection (𝑅𝑅0) to be significantly greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing.
 

- We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, indicating a large number of infections in the community, and also reflecting the difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease. Surveillance for this novel pathogen 
has been launched very quickly by public health authorities in China, allowing for rapid assessment of the speed of increase of cases in Wuhan and other areas.
 

- If no change in control or transmission happens, then we expect further outbreaks to occur in other Chinese cities, and that infections will continue to be exported to international destinations at an increasing rate. In 14 days’ time (4 February 2020), our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 250 thousand (prediction interval, 164,602 to 351,396). We predict the cities with the largest outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Chengdu. We also predict that by 4 Feb 2020, the countries or special administrative regions at greatest risk of importing infections through air travel are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea.
 

- Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February. 

[Honey Honey]

All I can say is wash your hands twice for the next fortnight 

[nudge]

First confirmed cases in Europe (France). 

 

[Tommy]

3 minutes ago, nudge said:

First confirmed cases in Europe (France). 

 

Oh oh. 

[Mpache]

I think the big problem is that it started in China. Ebola was contained because nobody goes to Guinea, Liberia or Sierra Leone, and the people don't have enough money to travel. So it was easier to contain. China on the other hand, is the opposite. Very touristy and with the economic boom, the people have enough money to travel in already populated cities.

[nudge]

7 minutes ago, Vader said:

I think the big problem is that it started in China. Ebola was contained because nobody goes to Guinea, Liberia or Sierra Leone, and the people don't have enough money to travel. So it was easier to contain. China on the other hand, is the opposite. Very touristy and with the economic boom, the people have enough money to travel in already populated cities.

Also the timing of this:

Hundreds of millions travelling in China with additional millions travelling abroad during Chunyun.

[Tommy]

We had a huge influx of Chinese ex-pats living here in the last two years. Oh oh.