Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak

[Tommy]

3 minutes ago, Happy Blue said:

In time dear boy, in time 

Have you heard of the Dunning-Krueger effect?

[Stan]

8 minutes ago, Happy Blue said:

90% of people in the hospitals are fully vaccinated, it doesn't stop you catching it or spreading it .. most would be 27 times better off not having the jabs in the first place

Where's the source for that?? You've hardly been reliable with sources in the past so I'm guessing it's from a bogus or dodgy site. 

Most people in ICUs are unvaccknafwd with Covid-related issues. What does that tell you? Natural immunity isn't really helping them is it? 

5 minutes ago, Happy Blue said:

In time dear boy, in time 

So no proof? Thanks for clearing that up. You can stop with the speculation on that front then. 

[Tommy]

Aaaaaand the new variant is in Europe. Belgium registered it's first case. 

[Danny]

25 minutes ago, Happy Blue said:

Like the flu i don't think you can get rid of a corona virus because it just keeps mutating 

No and someone like myself will carry on having booster jabs in the same way I have a flu jab I would imagine…but reducing the levels of covid-19 down to how we experience the flu now is the main goal 

[Stan]

7 minutes ago, Danny said:

No and someone like myself will carry on having booster jabs in the same way I have a flu jab I would imagine…but reducing the levels of covid-19 down to how we experience the flu now is the main goal 

BUT WHAT ABOUT NATURAL IMMUNITY DANNY YOU DIDN'T THINK OF THAT DID YOU. 

 

If covid is the same as flu (like @Happy Blue has said?) why do we have jabs for flu each year. Ergo, HB doesn't mind having jabs each year to treat covid...glad that's all sorted... 

[RandoEFC+]

46 minutes ago, Happy Blue said:

Like the flu i don't think you can get rid of a corona virus because it just keeps mutating 

Flu is one thing, Covid-19 is around 2-3 times more infectious as influenza though, and that's going off the 2020 data which doesn't account for the increased transmissibility of the Beta variant from Kent and then the Delta variant from India. We heard early on that the natural "R" number for Covid-19 was around 3, while for flu it's around 1.3.

This means that if 100 people in a community have the flu, then they'll pass it on to 130 people before they themselves recover from it. Those 130 people will infect roughly 169 people, they will infect 220 people, and then they will go on to infect 282 people. In reality, if people stay at home when they're sick and avoid coughing on others and stuff, this increase can be stemmed pretty easily within reason as long as people get flu jabs and follow basic hygiene.

You take the R number up from 1.3 to 3 though (and the studies I've just looked up suggest that the now dominant Delta variant has an R number of more like 5). Start with 100 infected people in a community. They will pass it on to 300 people before they recover if they go about their lives pretty normally. 300 will become 900, then 2700, then 8100 by the fourth set of infections, compared to 282 from the flu's R number of 1.3. This is why the comparisons between influenza and Covid-19 are only relevant up to a point. The symptoms may be similar and if you have 8100 patients with flu in your city at once it might well be as bad as having 8100 patients with Covid-19. The level of infectiousness of each virus makes a massive difference though in how much you should do to track and suppress the case numbers where possible.

What the vaccine does is decrease the rate at which Covid-19 cases become hospitalisations and deaths. The flu jab does essentially the same thing for those in vulnerable groups each year. If you have an unvaccinated population then you might be hitting 10,000 cases a day in the UK before that starts to overwhelm hospitals and require intervention from the government. With a fully vaccinated population, you might be able to hover around 50,000 cases a day without causing a problem for the NHS because less of those cases are translating into hospital beds being used up and people dying.

It's just maths at the end of the day. And the maths is clear - those countries with high levels of vaccination are seeing less infections turn into hospitalisations, and have seen the rate of transmission decreased as well.

What is worrying is that if the new strain has a higher R number than the Delta variant, which it sounds like it does, and it dodges the vaccines with even 25% more success than the strains we've been dealing with to date, over time those slight increases compound to cause a bigger problem, which is the curse of exponential growth. The numbers I've given you above demonstrate that a disease which gets typically transmitted to 3 other people instead of about 1.5 on average might not sound that much worse but causes a pretty big fucking problem over a longer period of time, and that is why it's disingenuous to keep shrugging Covid-19 off as largely similar to the flu in this context.

[Happy Blue]

1 hour ago, Stan said:

Where's the source for that?? You've hardly been reliable with sources in the past so I'm guessing it's from a bogus or dodgy site. 

Most people in ICUs are unvaccknafwd with Covid-related issues. What does that tell you? Natural immunity isn't really helping them is it? 

So no proof? Thanks for clearing that up. You can stop with the speculation on that front then. 

Already posted at the top of this page  ...

Marty Makary is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, editor-in-chief of Medpage Today, and author of “The Price We Pay: What Broke American Health Care — and How to Fix It."

More than 15 studies have demonstrated the power of immunity acquired by previously having the virus. A 700,000-person study from Israel two weeks ago found that those who had experienced prior infections were 27 times less likely to get a second symptomatic covid infection than those who were vaccinated. This affirmed a June Cleveland Clinic study of health-care workers (who are often exposed to the virus), in which none who had previously tested positive for the coronavirus got reinfected. The study authors concluded that “individuals who have had SARS-CoV-2 infection are unlikely to benefit from covid-19 vaccination.” And in May, a Washington University study found that even a mild covid infection resulted in long-lasting immunity.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/09/15/natural-immunity-vaccine-mandate/

[Happy Blue]

1 hour ago, Stan said:

BUT WHAT ABOUT NATURAL IMMUNITY DANNY YOU DIDN'T THINK OF THAT DID YOU. 

 

If covid is the same as flu (like @Happy Blue has said?) why do we have jabs for flu each year. Ergo, HB doesn't mind having jabs each year to treat covid...glad that's all sorted... 

Glad we agree, only when we all have natural immunity will things get better or they make a vaccine that works a lot better

I said it's a flu virus (corona) i didn't say it's the same as the flu, it's a new strain which seems to be slightly worse but nothing to go crazy or worry about for most of us, life should continue, the over 60's and the sick get the shots, the rest of us don't need them. i've never had a flu shot, another shot that's not needed

[Happy Blue]

1 hour ago, RandoEFC said:

Flu is one thing, Covid-19 is around 2-3 times more infectious as influenza though, and that's going off the 2020 data which doesn't account for the increased transmissibility of the Beta variant from Kent and then the Delta variant from India. We heard early on that the natural "R" number for Covid-19 was around 3, while for flu it's around 1.3.

This means that if 100 people in a community have the flu, then they'll pass it on to 130 people before they themselves recover from it. Those 130 people will infect roughly 169 people, they will infect 220 people, and then they will go on to infect 282 people. In reality, if people stay at home when they're sick and avoid coughing on others and stuff, this increase can be stemmed pretty easily within reason as long as people get flu jabs and follow basic hygiene.

You take the R number up from 1.3 to 3 though (and the studies I've just looked up suggest that the now dominant Delta variant has an R number of more like 5). Start with 100 infected people in a community. They will pass it on to 300 people before they recover if they go about their lives pretty normally. 300 will become 900, then 2700, then 8100 by the fourth set of infections, compared to 282 from the flu's R number of 1.3. This is why the comparisons between influenza and Covid-19 are only relevant up to a point. The symptoms may be similar and if you have 8100 patients with flu in your city at once it might well be as bad as having 8100 patients with Covid-19. The level of infectiousness of each virus makes a massive difference though in how much you should do to track and suppress the case numbers where possible.

What the vaccine does is decrease the rate at which Covid-19 cases become hospitalisations and deaths. The flu jab does essentially the same thing for those in vulnerable groups each year. If you have an unvaccinated population then you might be hitting 10,000 cases a day in the UK before that starts to overwhelm hospitals and require intervention from the government. With a fully vaccinated population, you might be able to hover around 50,000 cases a day without causing a problem for the NHS because less of those cases are translating into hospital beds being used up and people dying.

It's just maths at the end of the day. And the maths is clear - those countries with high levels of vaccination are seeing less infections turn into hospitalisations, and have seen the rate of transmission decreased as well.

What is worrying is that if the new strain has a higher R number than the Delta variant, which it sounds like it does, and it dodges the vaccines with even 25% more success than the strains we've been dealing with to date, over time those slight increases compound to cause a bigger problem, which is the curse of exponential growth. The numbers I've given you above demonstrate that a disease which gets typically transmitted to 3 other people instead of about 1.5 on average might not sound that much worse but causes a pretty big fucking problem over a longer period of time, and that is why it's disingenuous to keep shrugging Covid-19 off as largely similar to the flu in this context.

Good information 

[Tommy]

 

[nudge+]

I can't believe they called it Omicron instead of Nu. I was impatiently waiting for a chance to wish people a "Happy Nu Year" 

[Beelzebub]

The virus may not be comfortable with all the labels we are giving.

[Harry]

That confusion is why they picked Omicron

[nudge+]

Just now, Harry said:

That confusion is why they picked Omicron

Party poopers.

[Stan]

9 minutes ago, nudge said:

I can't believe they called it Omicron instead of Nu. I was impatiently waiting for a chance to wish people a "Happy Nu Year" 

Happy Omicron Year. 

 

Yeah doesn't have the same ring to it. 

[Harry]

We can at least make Futurama jokes, about Lurrrr, the ruler of Omicron Perseii 8

[Harry]

I hope the data behind this variant amounts to a bit of a false alarm. 

I don't fancy the idea of borders being closed again

[RandoEFC+]

 

 

[nudge+]

2 hours ago, Harry said:

I hope the data behind this variant amounts to a bit of a false alarm. 

I don't fancy the idea of borders being closed again

I hope it turns out to be highly transmissible but extremely mild, as the chairwoman of South African Medical Association suggested based on preliminary data. If that's the case and it takes over all other variants, it could be the breaking point of it becoming endemic without wreaking havoc on healthcare systems worldwide.

[nudge+]

Also, two flights from South Africa landed in Amsterdam yesterday, 61 out of 600 people tested positive upon arrival. It's not yet known whether any of them are carrying the Omicron variant, but it seems likely at least some of them are. Worth noting that everyone had a negative test before flying.

[Stan]

Apparently Omicron can already spread quickly through the double-vaccinated. But the current vaccines can offer some level of protection. 

[Happy Blue]

Christmas lock down anyone?   

 

[Honey Honey]

Katie Hopkins now being promoted, it's a new low for the forum. 

[Stan]

Worried I won't be able to go on honeymoon

 

[Stan]

 

 

 

 

 

And also an additional note on why vaccines are GOOD and why everyone should get a full dose...