Russia and Ukraine

[OrangeKhrush]

1 hour ago, Stan said:

You make it sound like Russia wasn't bombing the shit out of Ukraine in the first place.

they certainly did, but it came after a lot of disengenous talks and passive coercion.  Russia are far from right or vindicated, but the response of perpetuating war or an inevitability of such for political gain where no Ukrainian benefits other than letting black rock decide how their country is run.

I am genuinely concerned that this will escalate into a situation where Russia is desperate enough to use nuclear weapons.

a peaceful ceasefire where the terms remain that Ukraine will never be part of NATO how it was and how it should be, Russia then gives everything back, and putin steps down

Edited February 1, 2023 by OrangeKhrush

[Stan]

58 minutes ago, OrangeKhrush said:

peaceful ceasefire where the terms remain that Ukraine will never be part of NATO how it was and how it should be, Russia then gives everything back, and putin steps down

Is this actually a realistic likelihood though? Putin craves on having power and being the authority. Russia won't just hand anything back. That's quite a simplistic view in my opinion. It won't just stop and then everyone's happy again. 

[MUFC]

Can nuclear missiles be intercepted?

[CaaC (John)+]

2 minutes ago, MUFC said:

Can nuclear missiles be intercepted?

To make matters more difficult, an ICBM can only be intercepted at certain points on its journey: when it launches, when it is out in space, and when it re-enters the atmosphere. Each of these phases “has its limitations”, said LiveScience.10 Jun 2022

https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/defence/957033/can-anything-stop-a-nuclear-bomb#:~:text=To make matters more difficult,its limitations”%2C said LiveScience.

[OrangeKhrush]

13 minutes ago, MUFC said:

Can nuclear missiles be intercepted?

I don't want to find out

[OrangeKhrush]

50 minutes ago, Stan said:

Is this actually a realistic likelihood though? Putin craves on having power and being the authority. Russia won't just hand anything back. That's quite a simplistic view in my opinion. It won't just stop and then everyone's happy again. 

I think he is under huge pressure in Russia, I don't think he is liked and Russians on a whole will probably support a peaceful resolution.   The only way it can be sustainable is if Putin is gone.

[Dr. Gonzo]

4 hours ago, OrangeKhrush said:

they certainly did, but it came after a lot of disengenous talks and passive coercion.  Russia are far from right or vindicated, but the response of perpetuating war or an inevitability of such for political gain where no Ukrainian benefits other than letting black rock decide how their country is run.

I am genuinely concerned that this will escalate into a situation where Russia is desperate enough to use nuclear weapons.

a peaceful ceasefire where the terms remain that Ukraine will never be part of NATO how it was and how it should be, Russia then gives everything back, and putin steps down

So far there's been no indication that Russia is willing to concede Donbass, let alone Crimea, will ever be recognised as Ukraine again by them. So I don't think that's a likely scenario at all, unless Putin is suddenly out of power - but short of someone protecting him putting a bullet in his head, I don't think the likelihood of Putin not being in power is very high.

Ukraine's got no incentive to negotiate with a Russia unwilling to recognize all Ukranian territories as Ukrainian (including Crimea). Nor should the rest of the world encourage them to appease Russia in this way. We know appeasement of expansionist authoritarians does not dissuade them. I'm not even sure why Ukraine would trust any peace treaty signed by Russia, considering Russia tore up the 1994 agreement that gave USSR nuclear weapons stored in Ukraine back to Russia. And I'm sure everyone involved in that from Ukraine's perspective is really regretting that agreement now.

If Russia is desperate enough to use nuclear weapons, it means they're desperate and stupid enough to kill us all. Because we all know how the world will respond to those nuclear launches. But I don't think Russia will launch nuclear weapons for the same reason the US and Russia don't invade countries with nuclear weapons - it guarantees their own demise.

[OrangeKhrush]

2 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

So far there's been no indication that Russia is willing to concede Donbass, let alone Crimea, will ever be recognised as Ukraine again by them. So I don't think that's a likely scenario at all, unless Putin is suddenly out of power - but short of someone protecting him putting a bullet in his head, I don't think the likelihood of Putin not being in power is very high.

Ukraine's got no incentive to negotiate with a Russia unwilling to recognize all Ukranian territories as Ukrainian (including Crimea). Nor should the rest of the world encourage them to appease Russia in this way. We know appeasement of expansionist authoritarians does not dissuade them. I'm not even sure why Ukraine would trust any peace treaty signed by Russia, considering Russia tore up the 1994 agreement that gave USSR nuclear weapons stored in Ukraine back to Russia. And I'm sure everyone involved in that from Ukraine's perspective is really regretting that agreement now.

If Russia is desperate enough to use nuclear weapons, it means they're desperate and stupid enough to kill us all. Because we all know how the world will respond to those nuclear launches. But I don't think Russia will launch nuclear weapons for the same reason the US and Russia don't invade countries with nuclear weapons - it guarantees their own demise.

I don't think it is as impossible as believed, in Russia Putin's power is weakening and he is getting more political enemies who want to go back no conflict.  I think he is bordering on desperation now, and a ceasefire may start to look appealing or like a political victory.

one of Putin's closest allies basically backstabbed him and stole all the money designated to the military for the last 5 years, Russia still suffers from Soviet era cloak and dagger, Putin's greatest threat is his inner sanctum nd if he is dying someone ambitious may try to remove the piece from the board.

a head admiral from the United States has warned Congress of imminent risk of conflict with China, and that China pose a military and technological threat

[Dr. Gonzo]

7 minutes ago, OrangeKhrush said:

I don't think it is as impossible as believed, in Russia Putin's power is weakening and he is getting more political enemies who want to go back no conflict.  I think he is bordering on desperation now, and a ceasefire may start to look appealing or like a political victory.

one of Putin's closest allies basically backstabbed him and stole all the money designated to the military for the last 5 years, Russia still suffers from Soviet era cloak and dagger, Putin's greatest threat is his inner sanctum nd if he is dying someone ambitious may try to remove the piece from the board.

a head admiral from the United States has warned Congress of imminent risk of conflict with China, and that China pose a military and technological threat

I think this war (not even with confidence in Putin) still got support of higher than 60% of Russians that were willing to answer polls. We're not seeing too many people risk jail (or worse) taking to the streets to demand any change, like China before Xi removed covid restrictions or in Iran where people are just fed up with authoritarian rule. He has enough public support to where there's no civil unrest. People might be unhappy with how Russia has changed in a year, but they're not unhappy enough to demand things go to what they used to be.

He's been bordering on desperation the longer this conflict lasts, but all of his calls for ceasefire have remained consistent & unacceptable to Ukraine. They've already threatened nuclear weapons usage more times than any country ever really should and it's not been taken too seriously because at the end of the day Putin won't be able to play Czar if he dooms the world to nuclear holocaust. There's a reason none of these superpowers pick fights with anyone that can seriously hit them back. Although I think in our lifetimes we'll probably end up with world leaders that are too stupid to understand the concept of MAD. But while I think Putin is delusional and a dickhead, I don't think he's as stupid as he's made himself to look in the last year.

By the same token, it's why the West hasn't directly aided Ukraine more than funds/arming their military. The US knows if they put boots on the ground in Ukraine, it makes us that much closer to nuclear wear.

I think it's too simplistic to say it was just "one" of Putin's closest allies "stole" - I think it's several oligarchs were in on stealing from Russia and lying about the quality and strenght of what they were providing to Russia's military. And Russia's a kleptocracy, with Putin taking the biggest slices of theft from Russia for himself. I wouldn't be surprised if we learn one of the biggest oligarchs defrauding Putin's military was Putin itself. Let's be honest, Russia's got a ridiculous number of those private mercenary armies and Russia wouldn't be leaning on them so heavily if the leadership had full faith and confidence in the way they've prepared the Russian military. The ordinary military are just meat for the grinder.

I also think Putin knows his biggest threat is all of the oligarchs that have either: 1) spoken up against the war; 2.) are pissed off they're basically trapped in either Russia or Dubai, with shitloads of what they've looted from Russia frozen in the West. But that's also why he's become much more of a recluse and why so many oligarchs have been arrested or thrown from windows in Russia.

Putin's rule is safe as long as Russians largely support the war, remain too afraid to protest, and oligarchs decide that they like living life even without access to their loot, more than they like life inside a gulag or as a mess on the pavement. And for as long as Putin is safe, I don't think he's feeling too much stress about agreeing to a ceasefire or peace treaty that isn't along the lines of the one sided bullshit he's already proposed.

And tbh, I think China is watching Ukraine pretty closely. China has it's own issues with corruption that could plague it's military. Russia's got a far more battle proven military than China. And Ukraine is doing an astounding job giving the Russian military hell, without having allies come in and directly fight alongside them - just benefitting from western nations throwing weapons at them. I think if China tries this with Taiwan, the US has a treaty where they will be actively involved. And it's a sea invasion we're talking about, that's even more logistically difficult than a land invasion of a neighboring country. I'm not so sure a largely untested military will want to directly fight against the US, not just US weaponry, considering what a much shittier army has done with a fraction of the US military might behind it.

[Michael]

On 01/02/2023 at 23:19, OrangeKhrush said:

I don't think it is as impossible as believed, in Russia Putin's power is weakening and he is getting more political enemies who want to go back no conflict.  I think he is bordering on desperation now, and a ceasefire may start to look appealing or like a political victory.

one of Putin's closest allies basically backstabbed him and stole all the money designated to the military for the last 5 years, Russia still suffers from Soviet era cloak and dagger, Putin's greatest threat is his inner sanctum nd if he is dying someone ambitious may try to remove the piece from the board.

a head admiral from the United States has warned Congress of imminent risk of conflict with China, and that China pose a military and technological threat

Putin is becoming more and more unpopular as more Russians are being mobilized and as loads of Russian soldiers are being killed. But there are still a significant number of Russians that buy into Putin's propaganda. However, there does clearly appear to be several internal conflicts going on within Putin's ranks. Putin has hinted that he would consider some kind of a peace deal, something which would have been very unlikely during the initial months of this invasion. But the Ukrainian government are not interested in any potential peace deal, as they know that Russia will be unreasonable as regards to the terms of any deal. Moreover, they do not trust Russia, as the Russian regime has constantly lied throughout this invasion over the past year.

So this war will continue, until one side overwhelmingly destroys the other. As this is the situation, I am glad that the West are finally giving Ukraine the tanks that they need. Heck, there's even a chance that Ukraine could be given fighter jets as well in the not too distant future. If this were to happen, it would be a huge boost to Ukraine and their chances of kicking the Russians out of Ukraine. However, it will take several months of training to get the Ukrainians to fly any potential foreign fighter jets that are given to Ukraine. I just hope that Ukraine finds a way to come out victorious in this war and I wish it happens sooner rather than later.

[Dr. Gonzo]

On 03/02/2023 at 18:17, Michael said:

Putin is becoming more and more unpopular as more Russians are being mobilized and as loads of Russian soldiers are being killed. But there are still a significant number of Russians that buy into Putin's propaganda. However, there does clearly appear to be several internal conflicts going on within Putin's ranks. Putin has hinted that he would consider some kind of a peace deal, something which would have been very unlikely during the initial months of this invasion. But the Ukrainian government are not interested in any potential peace deal, as they know that Russia will be unreasonable as regards to the terms of any deal. Moreover, they do not trust Russia, as the Russian regime has constantly lied throughout this invasion over the past year.

So this war will continue, until one side overwhelmingly destroys the other. As this is the situation, I am glad that the West are finally giving Ukraine the tanks that they need. Heck, there's even a chance that Ukraine could be given fighter jets as well in the not too distant future. If this were to happen, it would be a huge boost to Ukraine and their chances of kicking the Russians out of Ukraine. However, it will take several months of training to get the Ukrainians to fly any potential foreign fighter jets that are given to Ukraine. I just hope that Ukraine finds a way to come out victorious in this war and I wish it happens sooner rather than later.

Sadly, I don't think there's a quick end. Modern warfare is only really "quick" when one side has a massive advantage over the other (like Azerbaijan against Armenia). Ukraine has the advantage of getting access to better weapons tech, Russia's got a manpower advantage & isn't worrying about things like war crimes in intentionally targeting civilians to weaken the resolve of the Ukrainian people.

I think it will drag on for at least another year, maybe two, and for Ukraine's sake, I hope the tanks & fighter jets that may come in the future are enough to turn the tide and get the Russians out of Ukraine. And when I say Ukraine, I mean all of Ukraine - but if peace can be established without Crimea, maybe it should be considered. Because I think the worst thing for Ukraine is for this to be a war of attrition. I think Russia can win a war of attrition.

There's also the issue of the international community needing to give Putin an offramp so he can sell a peace deal as a victory for Russia - because he's an authoritarian and that's what authoritarians do when they don't really win a war but need to call for peace. The facade of being a strongman and a military genius is a big part of his authoritarian propaganda. So there's a fine line that needs to be trod on carefully where the international community shouldn't be appeasing an expansionist authoritarian, but also need to give Putin the ability to sell it as a "win" for Russia despite what was supposed to be a short blitz with a new government put in Ukraine now taking over a year and looking like a tough stalemate of sorts.

[Spike]

On 06/02/2023 at 11:57, Dr. Gonzo said:

Sadly, I don't think there's a quick end. Modern warfare is only really "quick" when one side has a massive advantage over the other (like Azerbaijan against Armenia). Ukraine has the advantage of getting access to better weapons tech, Russia's got a manpower advantage & isn't worrying about things like war crimes in intentionally targeting civilians to weaken the resolve of the Ukrainian people.

I think it will drag on for at least another year, maybe two, and for Ukraine's sake, I hope the tanks & fighter jets that may come in the future are enough to turn the tide and get the Russians out of Ukraine. And when I say Ukraine, I mean all of Ukraine - but if peace can be established without Crimea, maybe it should be considered. Because I think the worst thing for Ukraine is for this to be a war of attrition. I think Russia can win a war of attrition.

There's also the issue of the international community needing to give Putin an offramp so he can sell a peace deal as a victory for Russia - because he's an authoritarian and that's what authoritarians do when they don't really win a war but need to call for peace. The facade of being a strongman and a military genius is a big part of his authoritarian propaganda. So there's a fine line that needs to be trod on carefully where the international community shouldn't be appeasing an expansionist authoritarian, but also need to give Putin the ability to sell it as a "win" for Russia despite what was supposed to be a short blitz with a new government put in Ukraine now taking over a year and looking like a tough stalemate of sorts.

Then what will happen is Russia will keep funding pro-Russian separatists that tried secede in 2012, and Ukraine will go back to bombing itself.

[Azeem]

Putin suspended the nuclear treaty that allowed NATO and Russia to regularly inspect each others nuclear weapons in his speech today. He said its suspended until constructive talks on Ukraine which practically means its withdrawn for the time being.

This was the last standing nuclear treaty between U.S and Russia

[nudge]

Perfect time to make a fortune selling nuclear bunkers and fallout shelters.

[Azeem]

1 hour ago, nudge said:

Perfect time to make a fortune selling nuclear bunkers and fallout shelters

NATO has immediately given a response so its a big thing apparently. 

 

[nudge]

Just now, Beelzebub said:

NATO has immediately given a response so its a big thing apparently. 

 

Oh I don't doubt that. I'm just really into gallows humour, helps me cope with the absurdity of it all. 

[Azeem]

These treaties no matter if being practically breached occasionally at least keep channels of communication open between the two sides. 

We are now at a point where both sides think the other is bluffing about the use of nukes.

[Tommy]

 

Ngl, a little fascist.

[Azeem]

That video has Mad Max Furry vibes

[Dr. Gonzo]

11 hours ago, Tommy said:

 

Ngl, a little fascist.

Funniest things about this are:

A year ago in Russia it was illegal to call this a war, instead of a "special operation."

Also, the Saddam Hussein style way of thinking if you invade a country, you didn't necessarily start the war is always hilarious. How brainwashed are people to think they can invade a country and not be the country that "started it?" At least when the US and UK lied about invading Iraq, they made it more believable than just claiming Iraq attacked them.

They really need to up their propaganda game, this is just sad and pathetic.

[nudge]

11 hours ago, Tommy said:

 

Ngl, a little fascist.

I had to laugh at this comment though:

 

 

[nudge]

8 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Funniest things about this are:

A year ago in Russia it was illegal to call this a war, instead of a "special operation."

Also, the Saddam Hussein style way of thinking if you invade a country, you didn't necessarily start the war is always hilarious. How brainwashed are people to think they can invade a country and not be the country that "started it?" At least when the US and UK lied about invading Iraq, they made it more believable than just claiming Iraq attacked them.

They really need to up their propaganda game, this is just sad and pathetic.

For the sake of fairness, it should probably be noted that the video is from the Defender of the Fatherland Day concert, which is all about WWII, just like that song. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

1 minute ago, nudge said:

For the sake of fairness, it should probably be noted that the video is from the Defender of the Fatherland Day concert, which is all about WWII, just like that song. 

Oh, I thought it was about their Ukraine war 

I'm still not so sure the USSR was particularly innocent in their entry to WW2... didn't they carve up Poland with the Nazis? Maybe it wasn't their intent to get backstabbed by Hitler... but I think they brought themselves into the war by helping invade Poland.

[nudge]

5 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Oh, I thought it was about their Ukraine war 

I'm still not so sure the USSR was particularly innocent in their entry to WW2... didn't they carve up Poland with the Nazis? Maybe it wasn't their intent to get backstabbed by Hitler... but I think they brought themselves into the war by helping invade Poland.

One way or the other, it's still a propaganda fest. The context just makes it a bit less bizarre...  

I'll refrain from discussing the role that USSR played in WWII and afterwards, last time I did I was called Nazi by certain people on here  

[Azeem]

If this turns out to be WWIII will it be even more pointless than WWI? 

No disrespect to Ukraine but at least conflicts in Middle East & Africa are about valuable resources in hindsight. Ukraine just seems a projection of power from both sides.