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Relegation Battle

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Time for a relegation battle thread like last season. With so many teams not on course for 40 who is going down?

 

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Swansea and Bournemouth are both terrible, wouldn't be surprised to see them get relegated.

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Huddersfield - I think they'll get fewer points in the second half of the season as they don't have that much about them but they have the points on the board and are solid enough to keep getting results. Should be fine.

Brighton - same as Huddersfield but with two points less. At slightly more risk but should be fine. I see them as more of a side who could go on a dire run than Huddersfield though so I wouldn't be shocked to see them go.

Stoke - I can't think why any neutral would shed a tear if they went down. They and their manager are both dour but I don't think they'll ultimately get relegated. Their time is coming though, next three years.

Southampton - I know there's no such thing as too good to go down but that's how I would describe them. They have more quality than the rest down there and if Pellegrino doesn't bring that out they'll just sack him and find someone who can.

Newcastle - With another manager I would probably back them for the drop but I think Benitez is too wily to let it happen. Hard to tell depending on how things go in January.

Crystal Palace - Gave everyone else a headstart and out of the bottom three already. Hodgson is a safe pair of hands, unless Zaha is poached in January I expect them to climb potentially as far as the top half.

West Ham - Oddly the least predictable team in the league under Moyes. I don't think they'll be consistent but they will find ways to pick up enough points to stay up.

Bournemouth - Poor team that somehow seem to conjure results from nowhere. Could go either way.

West Brom - Dire team with a wildcard manager. Could finish 20th, could end up 13th. I'd back them to go down though.

Swansea - Mess of a club that I can't see surviving.

 

So I'm calling:

Definite - Swansea

Probable - West Brom and Bournemouth

Decent chance - Stoke

Outside chance - Brighton, Newcastle, West Ham

Safe - Huddersfield, Southampton, Crystal Palace

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I think Carvahal will make Swansea difficult to beat and if our games against Sheffield Wednesday last season are anything to go by they will use spoiler tactics to do it.

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Going to be fair to Swansea here and say  that all is not lost just yet. I think they have it in them to play some good football but to do that they need to get rid of Roque Mesa and find a replacement. That boy is a damn liability in midfield with the way he plays. If they can get two wins and stop conceding possession the way they do they'll be in a good spot come April to try and claw themselves out of relegation.

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Honestly, the bottom half is the worst it's ever been. We've been very hit and miss and we're 8th.

It's a very intriguing one as nobody has been cut adrift yet. You can pick literally any three of the bottom half. I'd say us and Watford will be fine.

I'm genuinely finding this impossible to call. I've never thought it's been this hard.

The one I'm most sure will go is Swansea, yet two wins for them and they're probably out of the bottom three altogether.

Huddersfield I called to have a good first half of season and a poor second. I stand by that but think they will survive.

Brighton I think could get dragged into it.

Palace I think will be fine.

West Brom... I feel like their win is coming soon and once they've got it they'll pick up a few more.

I think Stoke could go. I had them to go in pre-season. I cannot grasp how they're as high as 13th. They hardly ever win and regularly get steamrolled.

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I reckon (hope) Stoke will drop (sorry @Dickie).

They just seem stale and that's partly down to Hughes. Lose 3/4, win one and that takes some pressure off Hughes. They seem to have regressed. 

I think Swansea are most likely to go down. A club in disarray at the moment. 

Reckon West Brom will recover eventually but if they keep Pardew next season maybe they'll go down then. 

Hard to tell who the 3rd spot will go to. 

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Pardew's always had this ability to put together a run that does enough to keep a side up. He'll win 4/5 on the bounce, be utter shite for most of the rest of the season but that run will keep them up.

Best example was Newcastle 2014/15. They beat us in mid October 1-0, their first win of the season, within a month they were 4th, then he left around January and John Carver took them on that abysmal run where he nearly took them down but they survived on the final day. Take that run out under Pardew they'd have probably finished bottom, let alone bottom three.

Newcastle for me hinges on Benitez staying. I do think he will but Mike Ashley's the type of bloke who would deliberately delay the sale of Newcastle until the window is shut, therefore limiting what they can do this month and that might push him away.

Southampton won't go down. They've been awful under Pellegrino but I don't see them dropping.

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Pardew took Charlton down so there is still hope :ph34r:

 

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I think we'll be dropping with Swansea and West Brom this season, if not we'll be sitting 16th or 17th just clinging on for dear life. We have nothing going for us and the board and Coates are too stubborn to accept that. At this point I'd rather them just sack Hughes and bring in Pulis again as a temporary manager. We can't score and we can't defend with Hughes. At least bring in a manager that will get us defending and out of a formation that proves time and time again not to work.

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4 hours ago, Dickie said:

I think we'll be dropping with Swansea and West Brom this season, if not we'll be sitting 16th or 17th just clinging on for dear life. We have nothing going for us and the board and Coates are too stubborn to accept that. At this point I'd rather them just sack Hughes and bring in Pulis again as a temporary manager. We can't score and we can't defend with Hughes. At least bring in a manager that will get us defending and out of a formation that proves time and time again not to work.

Too late, Pulis just got the Boro job

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I feel for Stoke as I have always loved the club's siege mentality in the face of their detractors, similar to the likes of Millwall (and even Bolton to a degree), however, they've been piss poor this season. They haven't progressed in a good three years, and without the creative spark they had in Arnautovic, they look impotent up top.

They will probably drop, alongside Swansea, who are simply an embarrassment right now. I think it would take a miracle for them to stay up; there's nothing remotely compelling me to think they have a chance.

The third spot, for me, is impossible to pick. As has been said, there are so many weak sides in the league this year that it could genuinely be any of the bottom half. I'll go with Bournemouth. 

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Huge win for Newcastle - Stoke is all set to go down IMO.

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I don’t think there would be many who would care what three out of the bottom half in that table in the OP went down. 

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I think Newcastle, Palace and possibly Southampton have something to offer the league and it would be nice for Huddersfield and Brighton to stay up but the rest, meh.

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Relegation Thread

1)  How many points needed for safety?  
2)  Which 3 clubs predicted to go down?
3)  Which clubs still could go down before the final weekend?
4)  And why?

PREDICTOR
https://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-premier-league/

1)  38
2)  too close to call
3)  Swansea 35, Stoke 35, WBA 35, Brighton 36, Southampton 36, Huddersfield 36, Newcastle 37
4)  I've worked on the premise that the first XI of each club are as good as bad as each other and the point totals mostly depend on the quality of their opponents.

Points total on penultimate weekend based on no injury crisises and Stoke drawing 1-1 at the weekend with Brighton. 

With injuries (current) West Ham and Palace are one more bad result of being drawn into the mire. 

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Using the predictor it was Brighton (37), Huddersfield (33) and West Brom (31). However Newcastle, West Ham, Swansea and Stoke all leaped above Brighton on the final day.

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ridiculously tight relegation battle as expected.

relegation.PNG

Somehow have Everton finishing that high xD 

 

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 23 points from a possible 33 for Leicester there. Impressive. 

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48 minutes ago, HK85 said:

 23 points from a possible 33 for Leicester there. Impressive. 

great end of season form from us. can't go wrong. surprised you're not happier you're finishing top half. 

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5 minutes ago, Stan said:

great end of season form from us. can't go wrong. surprised you're not happier you're finishing top half. 

We also won't get 18 points from the remaining games. 

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38 minutes ago, The Palace Fan said:

I had Palace finishing tenth too. Wilf who?

Great minds.

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7 hours ago, The Palace Fan said:

Using the predictor it was Brighton (37), Huddersfield (33) and West Brom (31). However Newcastle, West Ham, Swansea and Stoke all leaped above Brighton on the final day.

A few weeks* ago (Predictor) I had WBA needing to win their last game to send Brighton down instead.  (*before Swansea got 6 bonus points)

 

There is still a possibility that Swansea v Stoke could play out a 0-0 draw and both be safe until the final minutes of the season when two or more of the other clubs get last minute winners and send them both down.

 

Stoke have got a "must win" home game against Brighton this weekend. Brighton could make it harder for themselves with a draw but it would not be the end of the world. Brighton need to avoid losing by more than two goals, or losing after going into the lead.

 

As for the merits of the sides from Everton downwards, they are just different, no much to choose between any of them. Brighton's weaknesses are not scoring away from home, conceding soft set pieces, and an inability to score from set pieces. Relative strengths are scoring from open play only and not conceding from open play. This mean they do not spring any surprises and liable to get beaten from a set piece when they are dominant. Not a good combination for the nerves. 

PS: I did the predictor again and I still had Brighton (with a draw at Stoke on Saturday) going down on 36 pts with Stoke 36, Swansea 37, with Huddersfield 38 and WBA 37 escaping on the final day with wins. This time Southampton 37 escape. 

On these predictions if either Stoke or Brighton win on Saturday, they escape relegation.  

SUNDAY 13TH MAY

  • Burnley15:00AFC Bournemouth
  • Crystal Palace15:00West Bromwich Albion
  • Huddersfield Town15:00Arsenal
  • Liverpool15:00Brighton & Hove Albion
  • Manchester United15:00Watford
  • Newcastle United15:00Chelsea
  • Southampton15:00Manchester City
  • Swansea City15:00Stoke City
  • Tottenham Hotspur15:00Leicester City
  • West Ham United15:00Everton
Edited by Perseus
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/43049564

Quote

 

The 40-point mark - the magic number that is supposedly needed to guarantee Premier League survival. But with such a compelling relegation scrap this year, we have to ask, is it still true?

After joining the club in December, West Brom manager Alan Pardew said he would treat himself to a glass of wine when the Baggies reached the 40-point mark, although he added that safety "may be a lot less this year - 35 or 36 points". (They're currently bottom on 20 points, by the way).

BBC Sport and data analysts Gracenote Sports have examined the history of the relegation fight to find out who you can expect to be in the bottom three come the end of the season.

Looking at stats since the Premier League turned into a 20-team league in 1995-96, on only four occasions has a team needed 40 points or more to stay up.

The most recent example was in 2011, when 18th placed Birmingham City went down with 39 points and Midlands rivals Wolves stayed up with 40.

Here's what else we found:

The lowest number of points to guarantee survival was 31 points in 2010, as 18th placed Burnley went down with 30 points.

The highest points total to survive would have been 43 in 2003, with 18th placed West Ham relegated with 42 points.

On average the number of points to guarantee survival in the last 22 seasons has been 36.6 points.

Fact: 40 points as a general rule is a myth. But stay with us, as there's predictions to come.

So where did this myth come from?

Probably from a different Premier League era, two decades ago.

Coventry stayed up in 17th with 41 points, relegating Sunderland in 18th with 40, in 1996-97. The next season, 1997-98, Bolton went down on goal difference in 18th, while Everton stayed up in 17th - both finishing with 40 points.

Gracenote says that taking averages over five-year periods, the points needed for Premier League survival has dropped from 37 in 1996-2000, to 35 points now.

With 11 games to go, Gracenote has 11 teams in the relegation battle and has calculated the chance of each team being relegated.

That's from Bournemouth in 10th, down to bottom side West Brom, while the rest of the Premier League's top nine sides all have a less than 1% chance of going down.

Already this season, eight Premier League teams have changed manager - Watford, Crystal Palace, Everton, Leicester City, Stoke, Swansea, West Brom and West Ham.

Gracenote uses its Euro Club Index ranking of top-flight clubs and then runs season simulations one million times to estimate the chance of each team being relegated.

Using the same formula, Gracenote says 38 points "is more likely than not" to be enough, giving a 62% of staying up, but anything below that and it is a less than 50% chance.

"At this stage, it is certain that 40 points will be enough to stay up and that a team getting 34 points will be relegated," says Simon Gleave, head of analysis at Gracenote Sports.

 

 

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Two 6 pointers this weekend:

Brighton v Swansea

WBA v Huddersfield

Both seen as "must win" home games.

Over the years the stats are about 50% home win, 30% draw, 20% away win,

The majority of fans think 38 pts is the target for safety.

I did the prediction putting in a few unlikely results and it appears to me that the most inconceivable result would be 42 pts for safety. it is stretching my imagination too much that a team could go down on 43.

 

 

 

 

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Relegation Battle - Remaining Fixtures for all 10 teams 12:19 - Feb 13 with 260 views BarryTownSwam

BRIGHTON 

HOME 
Swans 
Arsenal 
Leicester 
Huddersfield 
Spurs 
Man Utd 

AWAY 
Everton 
Man C 
Palace 
Burnley 
Liverpool 

————————————————————— 

CRYSTAL PALACE 

HOME 
Spurs 
Man U 
Liverpool 
Brighton 
Leicester 
West Brom 

AWAY 
Chelsea 
Huddersfield 
Bournemouth 
Watford 
Stoke 

——————————————————————- 

HUDDERSFIELD 

HOME 

Swans 
Watford 
Palace 
Everton 
Man C 

AWAY 
West Brom 
Spurs 
Chelsea 
Newcastle 
Brighton 
Arsenal 

————————————————————————— —— 

NEWCASTLE 

HOME 

Southampton 
Huddersfield 

Arsenal 
West Brom 
Chelsea 

AWAY 
Bournemouth 
Liverpool 
Spurs 
Leicester 
Everton 
Watford 

————————————————————————- 

SOUTHAMPTON 

HOME 
Stoke 
Chelsea 
Bournemouth 
Man C 

AWAY 
Burnley 
Newcastle 
Swans 
West Ham 
Arsenal 
Leicester 
Everton 

————————————————————————— — 

STOKE 

HOME 
Man C 
Everton 
Spurs 
Burnley 
Palace 

AWAY 
Leicester 
Southampton 
Arsenal 
West Ham 
Liverpool 
Swans 

—————————————————————————- 

SWANS 

HOME 
West Ham 
Southampton 

Everton 
Chelsea 
Stoke 

AWAY 
Brighton 
Huddersfield 
Man U 
West Brom 
Man C 
Bournemouth 

————————————————————————— — 

WATFORD 

HOME 
Everton 
West Brom 
Bournemouth 
Burnley 
Palace 
Newcastle 

AWAY 
Arsenal 
Liverpool 
Huddersfield 
Spurs 
Man Utd 

———————————————————————— 

WEST BROM 

HOME 
Huddersfield 
Leicester 
Burnley 
Swans 
Liverpool 
Spurs 

AWAY 
Watford 
Bournemouth 
Man Utd 
Newcastle 
Palace 

———————————————————————— 

WEST HAM 

HOME 
Burnley 
Man Utd 
Stoke 
Man C 
Everton 

AWAY 
Liverpool 
Swans 
Southampton 
Chelsea 
Arsenal 
Leicester 

Edited by Perseus

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15 points against those teams - which is what we did in the first half of the season - would be enough. 

Easier said than done with ten injuries against United, Liverpool, Chelsea and Spurs. Then playing the others when they're sprinting for points in the final third. 

I think we may do enough this season, but Roy and Wilf leave next season will be very bleak.

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On 2/8/2018 at 10:58, Stan said:

ridiculously tight relegation battle as expected.

relegation.PNG

Somehow have Everton finishing that high xD 

 

If Brighton get less than 36 pts they do not deserve to stay up. This would be two home "must wins" against Swansea and Huddersfield and two draws. I think 38+ will be needed though. 

Swansea and Stoke play on the last weekend so this could be 37 pts for one of them on your forecast.

Newcastle have two must wins against WBA & Huddersfield and should pick up two draws giving them 36 as well. 

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