Harvsky 2,364 Posted December 28, 2017 Time for a relegation battle thread like last season. With so many teams not on course for 40 who is going down? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dr. Gonzo 2,771 Posted December 28, 2017 Swansea and Bournemouth are both terrible, wouldn't be surprised to see them get relegated. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RandoEFC 2,889 Posted December 29, 2017 Huddersfield - I think they'll get fewer points in the second half of the season as they don't have that much about them but they have the points on the board and are solid enough to keep getting results. Should be fine. Brighton - same as Huddersfield but with two points less. At slightly more risk but should be fine. I see them as more of a side who could go on a dire run than Huddersfield though so I wouldn't be shocked to see them go. Stoke - I can't think why any neutral would shed a tear if they went down. They and their manager are both dour but I don't think they'll ultimately get relegated. Their time is coming though, next three years. Southampton - I know there's no such thing as too good to go down but that's how I would describe them. They have more quality than the rest down there and if Pellegrino doesn't bring that out they'll just sack him and find someone who can. Newcastle - With another manager I would probably back them for the drop but I think Benitez is too wily to let it happen. Hard to tell depending on how things go in January. Crystal Palace - Gave everyone else a headstart and out of the bottom three already. Hodgson is a safe pair of hands, unless Zaha is poached in January I expect them to climb potentially as far as the top half. West Ham - Oddly the least predictable team in the league under Moyes. I don't think they'll be consistent but they will find ways to pick up enough points to stay up. Bournemouth - Poor team that somehow seem to conjure results from nowhere. Could go either way. West Brom - Dire team with a wildcard manager. Could finish 20th, could end up 13th. I'd back them to go down though. Swansea - Mess of a club that I can't see surviving. So I'm calling: Definite - Swansea Probable - West Brom and Bournemouth Decent chance - Stoke Outside chance - Brighton, Newcastle, West Ham Safe - Huddersfield, Southampton, Crystal Palace Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Harvsky 2,364 Posted December 29, 2017 I think Carvahal will make Swansea difficult to beat and if our games against Sheffield Wednesday last season are anything to go by they will use spoiler tactics to do it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mel81x 969 Posted December 29, 2017 Going to be fair to Swansea here and say that all is not lost just yet. I think they have it in them to play some good football but to do that they need to get rid of Roque Mesa and find a replacement. That boy is a damn liability in midfield with the way he plays. If they can get two wins and stop conceding possession the way they do they'll be in a good spot come April to try and claw themselves out of relegation. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dan 1,049 Posted December 29, 2017 (edited) Honestly, the bottom half is the worst it's ever been. We've been very hit and miss and we're 8th. It's a very intriguing one as nobody has been cut adrift yet. You can pick literally any three of the bottom half. I'd say us and Watford will be fine. I'm genuinely finding this impossible to call. I've never thought it's been this hard. The one I'm most sure will go is Swansea, yet two wins for them and they're probably out of the bottom three altogether. Huddersfield I called to have a good first half of season and a poor second. I stand by that but think they will survive. Brighton I think could get dragged into it. Palace I think will be fine. West Brom... I feel like their win is coming soon and once they've got it they'll pick up a few more. I think Stoke could go. I had them to go in pre-season. I cannot grasp how they're as high as 13th. They hardly ever win and regularly get steamrolled. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Stan 5,759 Posted December 29, 2017 I reckon (hope) Stoke will drop (sorry @Dickie). They just seem stale and that's partly down to Hughes. Lose 3/4, win one and that takes some pressure off Hughes. They seem to have regressed. I think Swansea are most likely to go down. A club in disarray at the moment. Reckon West Brom will recover eventually but if they keep Pardew next season maybe they'll go down then. Hard to tell who the 3rd spot will go to. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dan 1,049 Posted December 29, 2017 Pardew's always had this ability to put together a run that does enough to keep a side up. He'll win 4/5 on the bounce, be utter shite for most of the rest of the season but that run will keep them up. Best example was Newcastle 2014/15. They beat us in mid October 1-0, their first win of the season, within a month they were 4th, then he left around January and John Carver took them on that abysmal run where he nearly took them down but they survived on the final day. Take that run out under Pardew they'd have probably finished bottom, let alone bottom three. Newcastle for me hinges on Benitez staying. I do think he will but Mike Ashley's the type of bloke who would deliberately delay the sale of Newcastle until the window is shut, therefore limiting what they can do this month and that might push him away. Southampton won't go down. They've been awful under Pellegrino but I don't see them dropping. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Harvsky 2,364 Posted December 29, 2017 Pardew took Charlton down so there is still hope Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dickie 233 Posted December 30, 2017 I think we'll be dropping with Swansea and West Brom this season, if not we'll be sitting 16th or 17th just clinging on for dear life. We have nothing going for us and the board and Coates are too stubborn to accept that. At this point I'd rather them just sack Hughes and bring in Pulis again as a temporary manager. We can't score and we can't defend with Hughes. At least bring in a manager that will get us defending and out of a formation that proves time and time again not to work. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Harvsky 2,364 Posted December 30, 2017 4 hours ago, Dickie said: I think we'll be dropping with Swansea and West Brom this season, if not we'll be sitting 16th or 17th just clinging on for dear life. We have nothing going for us and the board and Coates are too stubborn to accept that. At this point I'd rather them just sack Hughes and bring in Pulis again as a temporary manager. We can't score and we can't defend with Hughes. At least bring in a manager that will get us defending and out of a formation that proves time and time again not to work. Too late, Pulis just got the Boro job Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Pig on the Wing 285 Posted January 1, 2018 I feel for Stoke as I have always loved the club's siege mentality in the face of their detractors, similar to the likes of Millwall (and even Bolton to a degree), however, they've been piss poor this season. They haven't progressed in a good three years, and without the creative spark they had in Arnautovic, they look impotent up top. They will probably drop, alongside Swansea, who are simply an embarrassment right now. I think it would take a miracle for them to stay up; there's nothing remotely compelling me to think they have a chance. The third spot, for me, is impossible to pick. As has been said, there are so many weak sides in the league this year that it could genuinely be any of the bottom half. I'll go with Bournemouth. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Eco 1,251 Posted January 1, 2018 Huge win for Newcastle - Stoke is all set to go down IMO. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Smiley Culture 1,050 Posted January 2, 2018 I don’t think there would be many who would care what three out of the bottom half in that table in the OP went down. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RandoEFC 2,889 Posted January 2, 2018 I think Newcastle, Palace and possibly Southampton have something to offer the league and it would be nice for Huddersfield and Brighton to stay up but the rest, meh. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Smiley Culture 1,050 Posted January 3, 2018 Watford in 10th only 5pts clear of the drop. This will be an interesting end to the season. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Perseus 11 Posted February 8, 2018 Relegation Thread 1) How many points needed for safety? 2) Which 3 clubs predicted to go down? 3) Which clubs still could go down before the final weekend? 4) And why? PREDICTOR https://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-premier-league/ 1) 38 2) too close to call 3) Swansea 35, Stoke 35, WBA 35, Brighton 36, Southampton 36, Huddersfield 36, Newcastle 37 4) I've worked on the premise that the first XI of each club are as good as bad as each other and the point totals mostly depend on the quality of their opponents. Points total on penultimate weekend based on no injury crisises and Stoke drawing 1-1 at the weekend with Brighton. With injuries (current) West Ham and Palace are one more bad result of being drawn into the mire. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Palace Fan 1,524 Posted February 8, 2018 Using the predictor it was Brighton (37), Huddersfield (33) and West Brom (31). However Newcastle, West Ham, Swansea and Stoke all leaped above Brighton on the final day. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Stan 5,759 Posted February 8, 2018 ridiculously tight relegation battle as expected. Somehow have Everton finishing that high Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
HK85 267 Posted February 8, 2018 23 points from a possible 33 for Leicester there. Impressive. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Stan 5,759 Posted February 8, 2018 48 minutes ago, HK85 said: 23 points from a possible 33 for Leicester there. Impressive. great end of season form from us. can't go wrong. surprised you're not happier you're finishing top half. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
HK85 267 Posted February 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, Stan said: great end of season form from us. can't go wrong. surprised you're not happier you're finishing top half. We also won't get 18 points from the remaining games. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Palace Fan 1,524 Posted February 8, 2018 I had Palace finishing tenth too. Wilf who? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Stan 5,759 Posted February 8, 2018 38 minutes ago, The Palace Fan said: I had Palace finishing tenth too. Wilf who? Great minds. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Perseus 11 Posted February 8, 2018 (edited) 7 hours ago, The Palace Fan said: Using the predictor it was Brighton (37), Huddersfield (33) and West Brom (31). However Newcastle, West Ham, Swansea and Stoke all leaped above Brighton on the final day. A few weeks* ago (Predictor) I had WBA needing to win their last game to send Brighton down instead. (*before Swansea got 6 bonus points) There is still a possibility that Swansea v Stoke could play out a 0-0 draw and both be safe until the final minutes of the season when two or more of the other clubs get last minute winners and send them both down. Stoke have got a "must win" home game against Brighton this weekend. Brighton could make it harder for themselves with a draw but it would not be the end of the world. Brighton need to avoid losing by more than two goals, or losing after going into the lead. As for the merits of the sides from Everton downwards, they are just different, no much to choose between any of them. Brighton's weaknesses are not scoring away from home, conceding soft set pieces, and an inability to score from set pieces. Relative strengths are scoring from open play only and not conceding from open play. This mean they do not spring any surprises and liable to get beaten from a set piece when they are dominant. Not a good combination for the nerves. PS: I did the predictor again and I still had Brighton (with a draw at Stoke on Saturday) going down on 36 pts with Stoke 36, Swansea 37, with Huddersfield 38 and WBA 37 escaping on the final day with wins. This time Southampton 37 escape. On these predictions if either Stoke or Brighton win on Saturday, they escape relegation. SUNDAY 13TH MAY Burnley15:00AFC Bournemouth Crystal Palace15:00West Bromwich Albion Huddersfield Town15:00Arsenal Liverpool15:00Brighton & Hove Albion Manchester United15:00Watford Newcastle United15:00Chelsea Southampton15:00Manchester City Swansea City15:00Stoke City Tottenham Hotspur15:00Leicester City West Ham United15:00Everton Edited February 8, 2018 by Perseus 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Stan 5,759 Posted February 15, 2018 https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/43049564 Quote The 40-point mark - the magic number that is supposedly needed to guarantee Premier League survival. But with such a compelling relegation scrap this year, we have to ask, is it still true? After joining the club in December, West Brom manager Alan Pardew said he would treat himself to a glass of wine when the Baggies reached the 40-point mark, although he added that safety "may be a lot less this year - 35 or 36 points". (They're currently bottom on 20 points, by the way). BBC Sport and data analysts Gracenote Sports have examined the history of the relegation fight to find out who you can expect to be in the bottom three come the end of the season. Looking at stats since the Premier League turned into a 20-team league in 1995-96, on only four occasions has a team needed 40 points or more to stay up. The most recent example was in 2011, when 18th placed Birmingham City went down with 39 points and Midlands rivals Wolves stayed up with 40. Here's what else we found: The lowest number of points to guarantee survival was 31 points in 2010, as 18th placed Burnley went down with 30 points. The highest points total to survive would have been 43 in 2003, with 18th placed West Ham relegated with 42 points. On average the number of points to guarantee survival in the last 22 seasons has been 36.6 points. Fact: 40 points as a general rule is a myth. But stay with us, as there's predictions to come. So where did this myth come from? Probably from a different Premier League era, two decades ago. Coventry stayed up in 17th with 41 points, relegating Sunderland in 18th with 40, in 1996-97. The next season, 1997-98, Bolton went down on goal difference in 18th, while Everton stayed up in 17th - both finishing with 40 points. Gracenote says that taking averages over five-year periods, the points needed for Premier League survival has dropped from 37 in 1996-2000, to 35 points now. With 11 games to go, Gracenote has 11 teams in the relegation battle and has calculated the chance of each team being relegated. That's from Bournemouth in 10th, down to bottom side West Brom, while the rest of the Premier League's top nine sides all have a less than 1% chance of going down. Already this season, eight Premier League teams have changed manager - Watford, Crystal Palace, Everton, Leicester City, Stoke, Swansea, West Brom and West Ham. Gracenote uses its Euro Club Index ranking of top-flight clubs and then runs season simulations one million times to estimate the chance of each team being relegated. Using the same formula, Gracenote says 38 points "is more likely than not" to be enough, giving a 62% of staying up, but anything below that and it is a less than 50% chance. "At this stage, it is certain that 40 points will be enough to stay up and that a team getting 34 points will be relegated," says Simon Gleave, head of analysis at Gracenote Sports. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Perseus 11 Posted February 22, 2018 Two 6 pointers this weekend: Brighton v Swansea WBA v Huddersfield Both seen as "must win" home games. Over the years the stats are about 50% home win, 30% draw, 20% away win, The majority of fans think 38 pts is the target for safety. I did the prediction putting in a few unlikely results and it appears to me that the most inconceivable result would be 42 pts for safety. it is stretching my imagination too much that a team could go down on 43. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Perseus 11 Posted February 22, 2018 (edited) Relegation Battle - Remaining Fixtures for all 10 teams 12:19 - Feb 13 with 260 views BarryTownSwam BRIGHTON HOME Swans Arsenal Leicester Huddersfield Spurs Man Utd AWAY Everton Man C Palace Burnley Liverpool ————————————————————— CRYSTAL PALACE HOME Spurs Man U Liverpool Brighton Leicester West Brom AWAY Chelsea Huddersfield Bournemouth Watford Stoke ——————————————————————- HUDDERSFIELD HOME Swans Watford Palace Everton Man C AWAY West Brom Spurs Chelsea Newcastle Brighton Arsenal ————————————————————————— —— NEWCASTLE HOME Southampton Huddersfield Arsenal West Brom Chelsea AWAY Bournemouth Liverpool Spurs Leicester Everton Watford ————————————————————————- SOUTHAMPTON HOME Stoke Chelsea Bournemouth Man C AWAY Burnley Newcastle Swans West Ham Arsenal Leicester Everton ————————————————————————— — STOKE HOME Man C Everton Spurs Burnley Palace AWAY Leicester Southampton Arsenal West Ham Liverpool Swans —————————————————————————- SWANS HOME West Ham Southampton Everton Chelsea Stoke AWAY Brighton Huddersfield Man U West Brom Man C Bournemouth ————————————————————————— — WATFORD HOME Everton West Brom Bournemouth Burnley Palace Newcastle AWAY Arsenal Liverpool Huddersfield Spurs Man Utd ———————————————————————— WEST BROM HOME Huddersfield Leicester Burnley Swans Liverpool Spurs AWAY Watford Bournemouth Man Utd Newcastle Palace ———————————————————————— WEST HAM HOME Burnley Man Utd Stoke Man C Everton AWAY Liverpool Swans Southampton Chelsea Arsenal Leicester Edited February 23, 2018 by Perseus Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Palace Fan 1,524 Posted February 22, 2018 15 points against those teams - which is what we did in the first half of the season - would be enough. Easier said than done with ten injuries against United, Liverpool, Chelsea and Spurs. Then playing the others when they're sprinting for points in the final third. I think we may do enough this season, but Roy and Wilf leave next season will be very bleak. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Perseus 11 Posted February 23, 2018 On 2/8/2018 at 10:58, Stan said: ridiculously tight relegation battle as expected. Somehow have Everton finishing that high If Brighton get less than 36 pts they do not deserve to stay up. This would be two home "must wins" against Swansea and Huddersfield and two draws. I think 38+ will be needed though. Swansea and Stoke play on the last weekend so this could be 37 pts for one of them on your forecast. Newcastle have two must wins against WBA & Huddersfield and should pick up two draws giving them 36 as well. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
