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Harvsky

Relegation Battle

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Who do you fancy to go down?

Middlesbrough are in free fall. A gap seems to be opening up on them hull and Sunderland. 

Will any of them pull some results out their arse? 

Tables do turn quickly. Palace and Leicester fans were talking as if relegation was nailed on a fortnight ago.

IMG_9415.thumb.JPG.1276ba356fb14a05bf1a3ebd5cc4558c.JPG

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Think Hull and Sunderland are gone.

We're showing great signs of recovery after a very bad patch of form and were very low on confidence. Since Monday and the result against Liverpool, it's all pretty much reversed. In good form, winning two in a row, scoring freely, playing confidently. Things are on the up for now.

Probably too early to call the final relegation spot anyway!

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I think Hull stand a decent chance of surviving. Swansea and Leicester have improved and made it harder for Hull, but Palace are still down there and Bournemouth are in bad form.

Their attack has been blunted with the loss of Robert Snodgrass but they're playing well under Marco Silva.

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Never write Sunderland off before Easter.

In theory this should be the year they flush because we are not there to give them the points they need to survive for a 4th year in a row.

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This is the year that Sunderland finally go, they've always managed to get out of it but this time around they look totally out of ideas. The only way that they can survive is by doing their usual ''sacking job'' around March but I think Moyes will be given until the end of the season (and a year later to get them back up should they go). Against us last year they looked terrible and we beat them 6-2 and this time around they didn't look much better as we dispatched them 2-0. Unless Jermaine Defoe gets himself on the score-sheet there just isn't anyone else to get them the goals they need. 

Hull I think could get out of it. Marco Silva seems to have adapted well to the Premier League and even though there's a gap opening there's enough time to get out of the mix. It'll be quite the achievement too considering how poor they looked under Phelen - likewise with Swansea who looked dead and buried but have been re-juvinated under Paul Clement, I'll be shocked if they go now. 

Leicester City are 99% out of it for me, they were nailed on to go down under Ranieri but seem to have turned things around under Craig Shakespeare. It all depends on who they bring in as to whether they will drop now, if Craig is allowed to manage until the end of the season then they'll stay up but if they make an appointment in the mould of Roy Hodgson then they could go. 

Middlesbrough I said a few weeks ago were in trouble as they've got a horrendous run in and it looks as though it might bite them on the arse. They're already in the relegation zone and the hard games haven't started yet, they'll be the typical side that comes up and goes down which is a tad surprising seeing as they seemed to make good investments in Victor Valdes, Jordan Rhodes and Alvaro Negrado in the summer.

Finally, there's Palace. That's who will occupy 18th for me which is criminal when you consider who they've got in the team. I wouldn't expect them to pull up any trees but they shouldn't be in the mess that they're in. What started as a bit of a fairy-tale under Pardew quickly turned into a nightmare and Allardyce has flattered to deceive since taking over the reins. They're not as bad as Aston Villa from last season but it's the same vibe of players just not really giving a shit waiting for the call from China - Benteke and Remy I'm looking at you.

All in all - Palace, Middlesbrough and Sunderland will go.  

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I wouldn't rule Bournemouth completely out either Cannabis. They've had a poor 2017. Us and 'Boro have got a horrendous fixture run which probably explains why both managers have been trying to get there defences in order even against relegation rivals. At Christmas I thought the bottom three was set but with Swanseas revival this should go right to the wire.

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As Aaron mentions, Palace and Middlesbrough's run-ins are hellish:

Palace:
Watford home
Chelsea away
Southampton away
Arsenal home
Leicester home
Liverpool away
Burnley home
Man City away
Hull home
Man Utd away

some big tests for Palace there. The games against Burnley and Hull at home could be massive.

Middlesbrough:
Man City (FA Cup, home)
Man Utd home
Swansea away
Hull away
Burnley home
Arsenal home
Bournemouth away
Man City home
Chelsea away
Southampton home
Liverpool away

So tough for Middlesbrough and even if they pick up a bit of form/points in their next few league games, their last 4 are ridiculous

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Boro are gonners looking at that.

Palace run in looks ok to me but there is very little leeway if they fail to beat the shite around them.

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It did hit home two years ago quite how quickly things can turn in a relegation battle. You can change your three literally every weekend.

I think the safest bet, if you were to back three, would be Sunderland, Hull and Middlesbrough.

I think we'll be fine. Our next three games are West Ham away, Stoke at home and Sunderland at home. I expect us to win the latter two and should we deliver I think we will be largely out of the picture.

Under Ranieri we'd have gone down without a doubt. He was the problem all along I think.

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12 hours ago, StanLCFC said:

As Aaron mentions, Palace and Middlesbrough's run-ins are hellish:

Palace:
Watford home
Chelsea away
Southampton away
Arsenal home
Leicester home
Liverpool away
Burnley home
Man City away
Hull home
Man Utd away

some big tests for Palace there. The games against Burnley and Hull at home could be massive.

Middlesbrough:
Man City (FA Cup, home)
Man Utd home
Swansea away
Hull away
Burnley home
Arsenal home
Bournemouth away
Man City home
Chelsea away
Southampton home
Liverpool away

So tough for Middlesbrough and even if they pick up a bit of form/points in their next few league games, their last 4 are ridiculous

Three of them are. I think Southampton at home isn't that bad a fixture to have. They'll almost certainly have nothing to play for and the bulk of our games in the great escape were against sides in that scenario - co-incidentally Southampton at home late on being one of them.

But the fixtures are irrelevant if you can't even score goals. Most people could've called Middlesbrough struggling in the goals department in pre-season.

I think Hull will drop now. I think this last pair of results will hit them. Not beating Burnley was a huge blow. Burnley always seem to be a thorn for them.

Sunderland... if they stay up this time then I think it's time to accept they'll just never ever go down.

Also worth pointing out that the Middlesbrough fixture list is missing a fixture - Sunderland at home, which was meant to be this weekend. That could be a very big game.

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I think we're all but down now, I reckon Boro and Sunderland will come down with us. The last two results have been awful and the performances have been poor to boot. Now we have to beat Swansea which given their improvement under Clement is no easy task. Unless Marco Silva can pull some more surprise results off against the likes of Everton, Man City and Spurs then we have to beat the teams around us which has traditionally been a problem for us. 

Our run in isn't the worst but I've learned to have low expectations in these situations xD

Swansea (H)

Everton (A)

West Ham (H)

Boro (H)

Man City (A)

Stoke (A)

Watford (H)

Southampton (A)

Sunderland (H)

Crystal Palace (A)

Spurs (H) 

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Honestly, the best teams in a run in are teams like Southampton, Watford, Burnley, West Brom etc... the more of them the better.

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Bad blow the results at the weekend but things can change very quickly, Boro are plummeting and I think Bournemouth could be dragged into it.

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Palace have us at home as well - just hasn't been rearranged yet, was meant to be this weekend

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I would place money on Sunderland and Middlesborough. That last spot is anybody's. I'll say Palace for now, they need to turn around rapidly.

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2 hours ago, Mazzari said:

I would place money on Sunderland and Middlesborough. That last spot is anybody's. I'll say Palace for now, they need to turn around rapidly.

I hope we don't. I consider two wins and two clean sheets as pretty good.

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It's all up to Hull now.

With Boro's fixtures and the decision not to bother appointing a manager I'd be surprised if they launch any battle.

Hull can probably get to 35-36 points

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I fancied Sunderland and Middlesborough going down since day one, not surprised it looks like they will. 

Sunderland have somehow escaped those clutches for two long but I think their time is up, Middlesborough is just out of steam. 

Hull might be able to pull themselves out of that hole and clutch 17th, I think it might be Palace that falls, which as Cannabis said is a shame with the quality on that team. If they were to fall they will be right back  up next year.

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Want to go down: Leicester, Sunderland, Palace (well, Allardyce)

Probably actually go down: Hull, Middlesbrough, Sunderland

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Be amazed if we go down now.

It's looking like four of Sunderland, Hull, Middlesbrough and Swansea, and it's probably going to be the former three.

I said it before West Ham but in three games time (West Ham A, Stoke H, Sunderland H) we'd be practically safe and I stand by that. I think we'll take at least 4 points from our next 2 and that'll about do it barring a total capitulation, which admittedly given the nature of us I don't put entirely past us.

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It'll probably be Sunderland, Boro & Hull although as has already been said, things can chance so quickly. All it takes is one of those teams to win a couple on the bounce and things look completely different.

Boro have been dreadful all season and barely look like scoring a goal, Sunderland have been Sunderland but Hull have given themselves a fighting chance & I think they've found a gem in Marco Silva.

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Hull really might do this and do you know what, I hope they do.

Burnley have been pulled back into it.

It's mental how tight it is. Southampton in 10th are only 6 ahead of Hull in 18th.

I think if Middlesbrough don't take six points from their two games this week they're goners.

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This is getting tasty now. 30 points for the 3rd bottom team at the 30 game mark. Last season at this stage the 3rd bottom team only had 25 points and the team that finished 3rd bottom ended up with 37 points. So it looks like it will be 40+ points needed to survive.

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Bloody hell just seen Palace's fixtures

6 of their last 8 are arsenal, leicester, tottenham, Liverpool, Man Utd and man city. 

The other 2 are hull and Burnley. 

They could struggle to get 40 points. Will need some big wins.

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Sunderland & Middlesbrough almost definitely down. No way I can see them getting enough points to overhaul Hull and Swansea. 

9 points separate 9th and 18th though. Can't remember when it was so tight to that high up the table. 

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It should have only been 7 but Swansea have had a mare at the end there.

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Never seen it so tight.

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I wish we hired Marco Silva when Steve Bruce resigned, we wouldn't even be in the conversation.

If we can get a couple of results away from home I fancy us to beat the drop, Palace's run in is ruthless and and West Ham are really struggling.

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Usually do one of these as I like keeping tabs on it myself. This is the biggest pain in the arse one yet given the number of teams.

 

PL Relegation 1.PNG

Teams highlighted grey I'd rank as highly unlikely to be relegated. Fixtures in bold are the crunch games.

Burnley's run in is interesting, they play four of the bottom eight.

Crystal Palace's run in looks absolutely nasty, but given their win at Chelsea last weekend you wouldn't write them off in any fixture. For that reason I think they'll survive.

Swansea I think it's crucial that they take some points in their next three. Stoke at home is an absolute must win for them.

I honestly think it could be West Ham. They're in freefall and if they fail to get some points in their next two then you struggle to see how they'll do it, because Hull still look like they've got some points in them at home yet.

The bottom two both need a miracle. I said Middlesbrough needed 6 points from Hull and Burnley, and they've already lost at Hull. I think failure to win that and they're as good as gone.

Sunderland actually have some winnable fixtures, but when you can't score, what does it matter?

Southampton is probably a harsh inclusion on this, but I did notice they had dropped to about 15th earlier.

It really is mental how tight it is.

Our next fucking four games are away xD suppose we have just had 4 home out of 5.

In pre-season I had money on Burnley, Hull and Swansea to drop. It actually looked quite hopeful at one point, now it's quite conceivable all three survive.

Edited by Dan
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