Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak

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[Harry]

On 17/11/2020 at 02:46, Dr. Gonzo said:

We’re seeing a massive surge where I am (the last 4 days have been record numbers for the most positive tests in a day here), as well as nationwide. And because a big man child lost an election and doesn’t care about doing his job anymore (although I’m not sure he ever did), I suspect this is probably not going to go well in the US.

For certain the US is going to have a rough period over the next month. Hopefully not longer.

They were a few weeks behind Europe with the third wave, but the cases and deaths yesterday were 200k and 1.97k  respectively and still on a very exponential trajectory. To make matters worse Thanksgiving weekend is just around the corner and is sure to exacerbate things further.

[Harry]

Melbourne was the source of Australia's only significant Covid outbreak which peaked at 800 cases a day in July but then we locked down very hard (schools shut etc).

Today we clocked up our 20th day in a row with zero new cases from 10k daily tests, and the only positive cases around the country came from airport quarantine centre's. Likely this weekend we will fully reopen everything such as being able to have full stadiums again and restaurants back to their original capacity. We're finally in good spirits again.

I think Covid is a lot easier to keep under control in summer.

[The Artful Dodger]

Positive news keeps coming, the Oxford vaccine looks to be especially useful in older patients. The question now is managing the loigistical roll out of this as quickly but efficiently as possible.

I'd imagine it'll be Spring earliest that we see society starting to see restrictions eased en masse but it'll be worth the wait. I hope the government give us a week long bank holiday or something, we need a chance to party.

Edited November 19, 2020 by The Artful Dodger

[The Artful Dodger]

Christmas is now the big topic, with arguments about whether restrictions should be eased at all etc, with talk of us easing for 5 days followed by a month harsh lockdown etc. I have some sympathy with the government here, I think people are going to visit family pretty much whatever the circumstances so I think it makes sense to allow it legally. No point criminalising millions, the police won't enforce it anyway.

[Stan]

I'd rather have lockdown end normally as planned in 2 weeks time, go back to a clear tiered system, have a 'relaxation' - to a certain point, say up to 8-10 people allowed to meet in a house - over Christmas/New Year. Then go back to tiered system following that as opposed to straight back in to a tough lockdown.

Trying to get police to enforce the limit of 8-10 will be very difficult for them to do though. Unless it's getting tip-offs about 30-40 in a house or something. 

[Bluewolf]

On 16/11/2020 at 16:11, Carnivore Chris said:

Piers Morgan is s bellend aswell but it's great whenever he roasts clowns like this.

Not a big fan of him myself but when they have to go on there it's like facing off against a bloke with a double barrelled shotgun while you are holding a spoon... They must hate getting picked to do that slot.. 

[carefreeluke]

On 19/11/2020 at 06:22, Harry said:

Melbourne was the source of Australia's only significant Covid outbreak which peaked at 800 cases a day in July but then we locked down very hard (schools shut etc).

Today we clocked up our 20th day in a row with zero new cases from 10k daily tests, and the only positive cases around the country came from airport quarantine centre's. Likely this weekend we will fully reopen everything such as being able to have full stadiums again and restaurants back to their original capacity. We're finally in good spirits again.

I think Covid is a lot easier to keep under control in summer.

A good mate of mine lives in Australia and the videos I see of him out and about, it basically looks like everything back to normal again. Quite amazing.

What else did Australia do differently? Is it geographic reasons as well?

[Harry]

2 hours ago, carefreeluke said:

A good mate of mine lives in Australia and the videos I see of him out and about, it basically looks like everything back to normal again. Quite amazing.

What else did Australia do differently? Is it geographic reasons as well?

For a start I think being an island makes a big difference, and we are very low on flight traffic now compared to before so we can control the 14 day quarantining of all new arrivals into the country and that stops a big source of the spread.

Then really its just been that we stayed locked down until we had zero community transmission, and then reopened and used contact tracing to contain new outbreaks. Melbourne's situation was the biggest test of the resolve but ultimately they stuck to the strategy and appear to be back on course now. That meant pretty major lockdowns in Melbourne for longer than what most other places have endured.

 

[Stan]

Oxford vaccine is 70% effective 

 

 

[Tommy]

70% sounds pretty low to me for a vaccine, no?

[Stan]

12 minutes ago, Tommy said:

70% sounds pretty low to me for a vaccine, no?

Can go up to 90% depending on the level of dosage. In the article it states effectiveness is increased if a low one is given first then a high one. However it also says that they don't know why that's the case!

I didn't realise this but flu vaccines are only 50% effective so this vaccine is comparably better in what it treats. 

[Honey Honey]

22 minutes ago, Tommy said:

70% sounds pretty low to me for a vaccine, no?

If you get 2 high doses a month apart it is 62%. 

If you get a low dose then a high dose a month later it is 90%.

If you get a lollipop with either it goes up 2% 

A control group wore tin foil hats for 3 weeks and it was 5% 

Credit to Oxford University for covering all confounding variables 

[The Artful Dodger]

70% was about as good as was expected prior to these other ones getting over 90%, which is extremely high.

It's still a good vaccine and further signs that we could be out of this soon.

[Stan]

17 minutes ago, Steve Bruce Almighty said:

If you get 2 high doses a month apart it is 62%. 

If you get a low dose then a high dose a month later it is 90%.

If you get a lollipop with either it goes up 2% 

A control group wore tin foil hats for 3 weeks and it was 5% 

Credit to Oxford University for covering all confounding variables 

At what point do you get a sticker? Before or after the lollipop? Does this increase effectiveness post-vaccine?

[Harry]

39 minutes ago, The Artful Dodger said:

70% was about as good as was expected prior to these other ones getting over 90%, which is extremely high.

It's still a good vaccine and further signs that we could be out of this soon.

I can't help but wonder whether the University is more accurate in reporting its findings than the biotech company.

 

[DeadLinesman]

44 minutes ago, The Artful Dodger said:

70% was about as good as was expected prior to these other ones getting over 90%, which is extremely high.

It's still a good vaccine and further signs that we could be out of this soon.

It’s also miles cheaper and doesn’t have to be stored at -70c. This is a game changer for all countries around the world, not just the rich ones.

[nudge+]

1 hour ago, DeadLinesman said:

It’s also miles cheaper and doesn’t have to be stored at -70c. This is a game changer for all countries around the world, not just the rich ones.

Moderna's vaccine doesn't have to be stored in -70c either. 

But it sure is great to have more alternatives. 

[Honey Honey]

It's going to be not for profit for as long as we are considered in a pandemic. Which means it will be 4x cheaper than Pfizer, 7x cheaper than Moderna but 3x the price of a 500ml bottle of bleach.

 

 

[Stan]

 

[tlr]

Selfishly thought as we're probably the safest Tory seat in the West Midlands they'd do us a favour and we'd be spared Tier 3 again. Always next time I suppose.

(I would like to clarify I do not contribute to the Tory majority!)

[Stan]

Manchester's R Rate is lower than London's but has been put in Tier 3, compared to London's Tier 2. It's not surprising in the slightest.

Glad Liverpool is (relatively) out of their lockdown and in Tier 2. A breath of fresh air for them no doubt and hopefully shows mass testing has worked?

 

[Honey Honey]

8 minutes ago, Stan said:

Manchester's R Rate is lower than London's but has been put in Tier 3, compared to London's Tier 2. It's not surprising in the slightest.

So called local leaders get to consult. London's leaders across the political spectrum all whined and made public demands for tier 2 max, someone even said tier 1 believe it or not. 

Daily cases are lower across Tyneside than parts of London. All of Tyneside is Tier 3, none of London is. The North East is a lot closer culturally to Wales and Scotland than it is to the South East. It's leaders hold similar values because of that.

Not having hard rules on who should and shouldn't be in a particular tier opens the door for a devolved inconsistent mess. A lot of which can be influenced by how much influence local leaders have over the central government. 

[JoshBRFC+]

 

[The Artful Dodger]

Weird seeing Liverpool getting full on sucked off by the Tories in parliament, but it's certainly helped out this mass testing. Hopefully we've seen the worst now and can slowly march towards the vaccine.