Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak

[Azeem]

The virus continued to spread in the cruise ship even after everyone was told to stay in their rooms. While other means could not be ruled out, some articles at the time pointed to the spread through air vents from room to room, Shit

[Stan]

6 minutes ago, Harvsky said:

Is there actually any hard evidence that was true? We know the guy is a bumbling buffoon at times so you're going off his odd words about it. We know he shook hands with the staff, medical staff who at that point have no excuse about why they were shaking people's hands, but it was denied by no.10 that he shook hands with patients. This was also over 3 weeks ago so he hasn't got it from that.

 

He said he 'shook hands with everybody' whilst knowing there were people at the hospital who were suffering from COVID19.

[RandoEFC+]

10 minutes ago, Harvsky said:

Is there actually any hard evidence that was true? We know the guy is a bumbling buffoon at times so you're going off his odd words about it. We know he shook hands with the staff, medical staff who at that point have no excuse about why they were shaking people's hands, but it was denied by no.10 that he shook hands with patients. This was also over 3 weeks ago so he hasn't got it from that.

 

Remember when you say "they" in this matter you're really talking about SAGE. The scientists, academics and experts that are advising the government. Some of whom with the highest level of education possible and decades of experience. SAGE was very split on what to do. The government backed one of the viewpoints from SAGE. Yes they have a final say and someone else may have backed another, but it's way to easy to pretend what happened here as all down to political clowns who didn't take it seriously. 

I'm not here to get into a slagging match or score points against Tories. This is obviously an unprecedented time and there's no playbook on what governments should do. All I'm saying is it's not exactly reassuring when the prime minister and health secretary advising us on how not to spread coronavirus have both caught it themselves, and that their several missteps and lack of preparation when we saw what was coming in China, Italy, France and Spain gave us plenty of time to prepare yet we've made all the same mistakes as each of those countries despite the warnings from those getting those experiences in those countries first hand being readily available.

I'm really not trying to stick the boot in, at least not more than is due. I'll readily acknowledge that it could have easily been caused by an irresponsible or asymptomatic journalist or staff member at number 10 that neither of them could do anything about.

I have to say on the SAGE thing though, whether it was those scientists or our own government, they were idiots and they were called reckless by experts in pretty much every other country and by the WHO. They are culpable for the herd immunity theory which was debunked weeks earlier by China and Italy and barely held up to basic scrutiny for 48 hours before they back tracked on it. This isn't about that though really. All I'm saying is that our government are playing catch up because they didn't understand what they were up against for too long when they should have. This may or may not be a consequence of that but it isn't reassuring.

[Honey Honey]

23 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

I have to say on the SAGE thing though, whether it was those scientists or our own government, they were idiots and they were called reckless by experts in pretty much every other country and by the WHO. They are culpable for the herd immunity theory which was debunked weeks earlier by China and Italy and barely held up to basic scrutiny for 48 hours before they back tracked on it. This isn't about that though really. All I'm saying is that our government are playing catch up because they didn't understand what they were up against for too long when they should have. This may or may not be a consequence of that but it isn't reassuring.

As someone wrote on twitter, the lesson is there is no such thing as centralised expertise.

SAGE provided the information that gave confidence to the governments earlier approach. The public inquiry after will be damning.

 

[Honey Honey]

Chris Witty is now self isolating after displaying symptoms. Whole UK crisis leadership is going to be Skype only for 14 days 

[IgnisExcubitor]

Almost a thousand deaths in a day.

 

Edited March 27, 2020 by IgnisExcubitor

[Bluewolf]

Got sent home 45 minutes earlier yesterday and 2 hours early today as our company try to keep people as far apart as possible, This way we don't get that huge crossover of staff between starting and going home all at the same time.. Glad of it today mind as I feel as rough as fuck.. 

[Lucas]

4 hours ago, DeadLinesman said:

Me waiting to hear what @Lucas has to say about Boris.......

 

To say I'm shocked is an understatement.

This would never have happened with Hugh Grant in power

[Machado]

30 minutes ago, IgnisExcubitor said:

Almost a thousand deaths in a day.

 

They have to be peaking. Hard to believe it might not be.

Edited March 27, 2020 by Machado

[IgnisExcubitor]

6 minutes ago, Machado said:

They have to be peaking. Hard to believe it might not be.

I fear we will see similar numbers soon from other countries, including ours.

Arseholes everywhere are still not taking this seriously.

On a side note, Germany is doing something right. 0.9% of death reported.

Edited March 27, 2020 by IgnisExcubitor

[RandoEFC+]

14 minutes ago, IgnisExcubitor said:

I fear we will see similar numbers soon from other countries, including ours.

Arseholes everywhere are still not taking this seriously.

On a side note, Germany is doing something right. 0.9% of death reported.

Germany are testing a lot more than other nations. I think I read they've recorded a lot more cases as they're testing more people with mild symptoms. In the UK for example, people are only getting tested when they need further treatment, so the deaths:cases ratio is worse than Germany. That said I think they are doing a better job of containing it as well as that.

[nudge+]

Germany is also preparing to carry out mass testing to find out who has already developed antibodies and is immune to allow those to return to normal activities and reduce the strain on economy. But they'll need more accurate tests than what they've got now.

[nudge+]

A Swiss immunologist is testing the vaccine on himself.

https://www.20min.ch/wissen/news/story/Forscher-testet-Corona-Impfstoff-an-sich-selbst-18463459

[Bluebird Hewitt]

37 minutes ago, IgnisExcubitor said:

I fear we will see similar numbers soon from other countries, including ours.

Arseholes everywhere are still not taking this seriously.

On a side note, Germany is doing something right. 0.9% of death reported.

Without trying to sound like an utter arsehole but when compared to other countries, something doesn't look right. 

How does a country with a considerably high number of cases also has a considerably low number of deaths? 

Again, it's not trying to be a dick but it just looks off compared to everyone else. 

[Azeem]

The IMF Chief has said it's clear we have entered a recession 

[nudge+]

7 minutes ago, Bluebird Hewitt said:

Without trying to sound like an utter arsehole but when compared to other countries, something doesn't look right. 

How does a country with a considerably high number of cases also has a considerably low number of deaths? 

Again, it's not trying to be a dick but it just looks off compared to everyone else. 

Average age of cases in Germany: 45 years.
Average age of cases in Italy: 63 years

That might be one of the reasons. Another potential reason is that Germany's healthcare system is not overloaded yet so they have enough ICU beds, enough qualified staff and enough protective equipment for them. They are also testing in high numbers so many of those are bound to be mild cases that don't get tested in many other countries. Contact tracking and quarantine measures are apparently very thorough too. There are probably many factors that differ between countries.

Overall, the mortality rate in Germany (approx. 0.4%) is similar to that in South Korea (approx. 1%) and Singapore (approx. 0.3%) so it's not as if t's a complete outlier.

[RandoEFC+]

30 minutes ago, Bluebird Hewitt said:

Without trying to sound like an utter arsehole but when compared to other countries, something doesn't look right. 

How does a country with a considerably high number of cases also has a considerably low number of deaths? 

Again, it's not trying to be a dick but it just looks off compared to everyone else. 

See my post above. Germany are doing loads more testing. They're getting a lot of positive results from people with mild symptoms whereas we only test people with more severe symptoms. Therefore more official cases for Germany but not more deaths.

[Rick]

Think people need to think about the number of people currently self isolating after showing very mild symptoms. The majority of those people will be back to normal in the 14 days. Its not an accurate number being reported obviously, so the death rate would be much much lower in reality, closer to that of Germany and others.

Anybody dying is obviously horrible, but the vast majority of cases that become serious or lead to death are from people with underlying health conditions. Generally, if you have an immune system that isnt compromised, then you will more than likely be okay. I'm not trying to dismiss these numbers, they are still concerning, but its not the death sentence that the media and confirmed numbers are suggesting it is. The UK has a confirmed number less than 15k...I'm betting that its ten times that amount who actually have it but are only suffering mild issues like cough and slight fever.

 

[RandoEFC+]

5 minutes ago, Rick said:

Think people need to think about the number of people currently self isolating after showing very mild symptoms. The majority of those people will be back to normal in the 14 days. Its not an accurate number being reported obviously, so the death rate would be much much lower in reality, closer to that of Germany and others.

Anybody dying is obviously horrible, but the vast majority of cases that become serious or lead to death are from people with underlying health conditions. Generally, if you have an immune system that isnt compromised, then you will more than likely be okay. I'm not trying to dismiss these numbers, they are still concerning, but its not the death sentence that the media and confirmed numbers are suggesting it is. The UK has a confirmed number less than 15k...I'm betting that its ten times that amount who actually have it but are only suffering mild issues like cough and slight fever.

 

First paragraph, spot on.

Second paragraph, the greater threat has always been hospital capacity getting overwhelmed. While most under 70s are not likely to die, many of them need hospital care to get through it. I don't know what the actual numbers are but if 10% of people that get it need hospital, that's probably 9% who recover and 1% who go down even with intensive care, but if too many people go in at once, many of those 9% won't get a bed and will actually die.

Feel free to correct my numbers science people, just throwing rough estimates to be able to make the point.

[Honey Honey]

Higher mortality rates likely caused by concentrated community outbreaks. So the idea that loads more people have it so Germany mortality rate is real might not be the right way to look at it.

Test. Trace. Isolate. It's what the WHO said and it's what Germany and South Korea are doing well. Others are doing little testing. No tracing. Hence everyone must isolate. We'll only get out of isolation when we mass test constantly.

[Bluebird Hewitt]

36 minutes ago, nudge said:

Average age of cases in Germany: 45 years.
Average age of cases in Italy: 63 years

That might be one of the reasons. Another potential reason is that Germany's healthcare system is not overloaded yet so they have enough ICU beds, enough qualified staff and enough protective equipment for them. They are also testing in high numbers so many of those are bound to be mild cases that don't get tested in many other countries. Contact tracking and quarantine measures are apparently very thorough too. There are probably many factors that differ between countries.

Overall, the mortality rate in Germany (approx. 0.4%) is similar to that in South Korea (approx. 1%) and Singapore (approx. 0.3%) so it's not as if t's a complete outlier.

Fair enough in regards to the ages. That always helps of course. 

In regards to the other countries, I was thinking more in comparison with closer countries like Spain, Italy and the likes, seeing as it can spread easier in mainland Europe. 

19 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

See my post above. Germany are doing loads more testing. They're getting a lot of positive results from people with mild symptoms whereas we only test people with more severe symptoms. Therefore more official cases for Germany but not more deaths.

Yeah I guess. Hopefully this'll be a wake up call for all of us, though I'm not holding my breath. 

[Rick]

11 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

First paragraph, spot on.

Second paragraph, the greater threat has always been hospital capacity getting overwhelmed. While most under 70s are not likely to die, many of them need hospital care to get through it. I don't know what the actual numbers are but if 10% of people that get it need hospital, that's probably 9% who recover and 1% who go down even with intensive care, but if too many people go in at once, many of those 9% won't get a bed and will actually die.

Feel free to correct my numbers science people, just throwing rough estimates to be able to make the point.

No you’re probably spot on with the numbers, I just read my post again and it’s a lot of talking out my arse haha. Obviously a massive issue is the NHS getting overwhelmed. It’s quite infuriating that the government are JUST NOW ordering ventilators from Dyson. Why didn’t they do this 3 weeks ago? Twats. 

[Honey Honey]

Here are those estimated stats if you want them

 

[Tommy]

8 hours ago, nudge said:

Till Lindemann is in intensive care after contracting the virus

https://www.bz-berlin.de/leute/corona-drama-rammstein-saenger-till-lindemann-auf-der-intensivstation

Negative. 

 

 

[IgnisExcubitor]

1 hour ago, Harvsky said:

Higher mortality rates likely caused by concentrated community outbreaks. So the idea that loads more people have it so Germany mortality rate is real might not be the right way to look at it.

Test. Trace. Isolate. It's what the WHO said and it's what Germany and South Korea are doing well. Others are doing little testing. No tracing. Hence everyone must isolate. We'll only get out of isolation when we mass test constantly.

This is exactly what we are trying to do here, the tracing part - authorities are tracing each and every person that comes in contact with the infected person and urging them to isolate. Now under stricter law.

I wish we had more testing, but I understand where the rationale for not doing that in such a hugely populated country. We are slowly ramping up the production of testing kits, before doing that.

I think the government here wants people to fall sick in small numbers to save the hospitals from being overwhelmed. Thankfully both the government and private bodies are building temporary hospitals for the eventual tsunami of patients when the big spike happens.

Edited March 27, 2020 by IgnisExcubitor