binder Posted March 28, 2020 Posted March 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Tommy said: We're taking patients from Italy and France. I am guessing that is a yay for EU and boo for Brexit? Quote
Moderator Tommy Posted March 28, 2020 Moderator Posted March 28, 2020 Just now, binder said: I am guessing that is a yay for EU and boo for Brexit? Pretty sure in times like these we'd treat Brits too if they need us. Quote
Bluebird Hewitt Posted March 28, 2020 Posted March 28, 2020 Random question. Considering Italy has been on lockdown for a while, are they actually improving or are things getting worse? Quote
DeadLinesman Posted March 28, 2020 Posted March 28, 2020 59 minutes ago, Tommy said: Pretty sure in times like these we'd treat Brits too if they need us. I’ve seen your WhatsApp. You wouldn’t piss on us if we were on fire Quote
Dr. Gonzo Posted March 28, 2020 Posted March 28, 2020 9 hours ago, Stan said: Such as... Lying to the TV to tell people what they wanted to hear before backtracking... so literally just done the same as he has for the last 4 years. Its pretty clear he’s not up to the job of being president. Now that we know the senate had advanced notices of how bad things would get with this virus... and that was around his impeachment trial... I think it’s fair to say that Republican senators are culpable as fuck for this administrations response. They had advanced notice of a pandemic, surely they must see what everyone else sees about Trump being wholly incompetent. And he’s trying to do the same quid pro quo stuff he was impeached for... for a deadly disease’s response. Quote
Dr. Gonzo Posted March 28, 2020 Posted March 28, 2020 33 minutes ago, Bluebird Hewitt said: Random question. Considering Italy has been on lockdown for a while, are they actually improving or are things getting worse? Things looked better for a few days in terms of seeing less new cases. But I think yesterday they had the worst day of deaths and the number of cases went up Quote
nudge Posted March 28, 2020 Author Posted March 28, 2020 55 minutes ago, Bluebird Hewitt said: Random question. Considering Italy has been on lockdown for a while, are they actually improving or are things getting worse? It seems they have reached the peak and plateaued in the last 6 days so I'd be carefully optimistic and say that the trend indicates a slow improvement. 2 Quote
Danny Posted March 28, 2020 Posted March 28, 2020 23 hours ago, Rick said: Think people need to think about the number of people currently self isolating after showing very mild symptoms. The majority of those people will be back to normal in the 14 days. Its not an accurate number being reported obviously, so the death rate would be much much lower in reality, closer to that of Germany and others. Anybody dying is obviously horrible, but the vast majority of cases that become serious or lead to death are from people with underlying health conditions. Generally, if you have an immune system that isnt compromised, then you will more than likely be okay. I'm not trying to dismiss these numbers, they are still concerning, but its not the death sentence that the media and confirmed numbers are suggesting it is. The UK has a confirmed number less than 15k...I'm betting that its ten times that amount who actually have it but are only suffering mild issues like cough and slight fever. It will be a death sentence for a lot of people, I don't think the media have reported it as being a death sentence for everybody...but there's something like 1.5m people with serious health complications that could die from this if they get it. That is a ridiculously high number. The reporting is spot on imo and everybody should be doing all we can to isolate and not spread the virus. 2 Quote
Bluewolf Posted March 28, 2020 Posted March 28, 2020 27 minutes ago, nudge said: It seems they have reached the peak and plateaued in the last 6 days so I'd be carefully optimistic and say that the trend indicates a slow improvement. It's only the cases that go through the Hospitals/Doctors etc.. that are getting logged though would that be right??? Given that they do not have testing kits for everybody the recorded numbers of cases & deaths would only come from any official sources I should imagine so in reality the amount of possible infected people could be double that potentially and as yet unconfirmed and that's of course making the assumption that the numbers we are being told about are accurate in the first place. I think I read yesterday about the recorded number of deaths over here seemed to have dipped on previous days but that was because they recorded the deaths over a 12 hour period as opposed to the 24 hour period in the weeks prior for example, This can give a false number on first viewing and maybe give the impression that things are on the mend when perhaps that might not be the case... Quote
nudge Posted March 28, 2020 Author Posted March 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bluewolf said: It's only the cases that go through the Hospitals/Doctors etc.. that are getting logged though would that be right??? Given that they do not have testing kits for everybody the recorded numbers of cases & deaths would only come from any official sources I should imagine so in reality the amount of possible infected people could be double that potentially and as yet unconfirmed and that's of course making the assumption that the numbers we are being told about are accurate in the first place. I think I read yesterday about the recorded number of deaths over here seemed to have dipped on previous days but that was because they recorded the deaths over a 12 hour period as opposed to the 24 hour period in the weeks prior for example, This can give a false number on first viewing and maybe give the impression that things are on the mend when perhaps that might not be the case... Many mild or asymptomatic cases definitely go unnoticed and the actual number of infected could be a few times higher but essentially they aren't the main problem (especially under a lockdown) - the biggest issue are those that require medical attention and hospitalisation as that's what makes the healthcare system break so as long as the testing levels stay approximately the same it is still a good enough stat to evaluate the general trend. What's encouraging in Italy's case is that they're carrying out more tests every day and the number of new cases still seems to be stable (in fact a somewhat larger increase in daily cases a few days ago was attributed to adding the backlog into the total count) - also the number of new cases in ICU seems to have stabilised at around 100 per day too. Those two are the main factors that make me cautiously optimistic - but it's definitely too early to tell. The situation seems to be slowly stabilising and improving in Lombardy only though so it's quite likely that the numbers will shoot up again as South Italy (with much worse standard of medical care) reaches the peak. As for trusting the numbers to be accurate; that's always a difficult one... You can only work with and make your observations from what you're given by the authorities. A lot depends on the way the cases are counted and the way those numbers are then reported so you're definitely right that it can be misleading. Even the number of deaths in Italy is a questionable one because of the way it's reported - it essentially shows the number of people who passed away WITH the virus - but that doesn't necessary mean that the virus was the cause of death. In other words, you could die of an unrelated chronic (or accute) disease and have no or just mild symptoms of Covid-19 but if you test positive, you are automatically included in the total count of the virus fatalities. 1 Quote
Honey Honey Posted March 28, 2020 Posted March 28, 2020 Imperial college modelling expected 260 deaths in a day to be the peak in mid April, with 6k deaths total. We have 260 deaths today! Modelling way out. If it underestimated us has it underestimated Spain where it expected 50,000 deaths? Let's hope it overestimated there. Quote
Bluewolf Posted March 28, 2020 Posted March 28, 2020 38 minutes ago, nudge said: What's encouraging in Italy's case is that they're carrying out more tests every day and the number of new cases still seems to be stable (in fact a somewhat larger increase in daily cases a few days ago was attributed to adding the backlog into the total count) - also the number of new cases in ICU seems to have stabilised at around 100 per day too. Those two are the main factors that make me cautiously optimistic If you have stable system of reporting cases that come through on a daily basis even if they don't pick up those that fly under that radar then it's a reasonable indicator of peaks and troughs regardless of the true number that may be out there... It also needs to be considered that there will be people with mild symptoms on lockdown that have not been tested or confirmed that may now have passed the 14 day period without getting any worse and one would hope in a lot of cases have made full recoveries.. The sooner the testing kits are out there in larger numbers the better for peoples peace of mind.. 1 Quote
nudge Posted March 28, 2020 Author Posted March 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Bluewolf said: If you have stable system of reporting cases that come through on a daily basis even if they don't pick up those that fly under that radar then it's a reasonable indicator of peaks and troughs regardless of the true number that may be out there... It also needs to be considered that there will be people with mild symptoms on lockdown that have not been tested or confirmed that may now have passed the 14 day period without getting any worse and one would hope in a lot of cases have made full recoveries.. The sooner the testing kits are out there in larger numbers the better for peoples peace of mind.. That's pretty much the reason why Germany (and some other countries probably) are looking into carrying out mass testing for antibodies in order to find out who had the virus and developed antibodies so that the lockdown can be gradually lifted and people can start returning to their normal lives. But more accurate tests are desperately needed... 2 Quote
Inverted Posted March 28, 2020 Posted March 28, 2020 (edited) Globally, experience seems to suggest a strict shutdown of non-essential movement is vital for buying time, and then then any kind of a solution first requires aggressive testing. In Europe, Italy wavered and is suffering for it. The UK briefly flirted with an alternative, realised it was based on several over-optimistic assumptions, and belatedly went into lockdown. We might still suffer from it. Germany acted promptly with testing from the start, and seems to be in best shape, but also could be influenced by strong starting position in terms of hospital capacity. America is doing next to nothing and could be facing disaster. Edited March 28, 2020 by Inverted Quote
Administrator Stan Posted March 28, 2020 Administrator Posted March 28, 2020 Aside from @nudge's graphs, I do like those FT graphs. Really easy to view the different trajectories and comparisons between countries. Quote
nudge Posted March 28, 2020 Author Posted March 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Stan said: Aside from @nudge's graphs, I do like those FT graphs. Really easy to view the different trajectories and comparisons between countries. The ones I posted aren't mine either I had to stop with my own updates as it was taking way too much time once it spread everywhere and I just couldn't keep up with it anymore... Quote
Inverted Posted March 28, 2020 Posted March 28, 2020 One other thing that makes it tricky to assess Germany's situation is that it has by a large distance the biggest population in Europe (besides Russia or Turkey if you want to count them). Comparing it in absolute terms to the UK, France, or Italy isnt very useful since their population is about a fifth larger than any of those countries. At the same time, thinking proportionally also isn't that easy since Germany is doing so much more testing than everyone else. Quote
Harry Posted March 28, 2020 Posted March 28, 2020 8 hours ago, binder said: I am going to play Devil's Advocate here and ask how many people would normally have died in this time frame from influenza? I assume this number is strictly people who have died from COVID19 and not all flu like illnesses. So from stans numbers 5 a day on average compared to 300 or so today for corona from a small 17,000 confirmed cases. I'd assume the real case number is more like 170k. But if you added two zeros to that case count to 20m people you'd be talking about 30,000 deaths a day. Quote
Harry Posted March 28, 2020 Posted March 28, 2020 I found this pretty good. https://www.facebook.com/173915612706111/posts/2660801087350872/ Quote
Administrator Stan Posted March 28, 2020 Administrator Posted March 28, 2020 18 minutes ago, nudge said: The ones I posted aren't mine either I had to stop with my own updates as it was taking way too much time once it spread everywhere and I just couldn't keep up with it anymore... This is why you don't work for the Financial Times. They wouldn't put up with this attitude Quote
Harry Posted March 28, 2020 Posted March 28, 2020 49 minutes ago, Harvsky said: A shame new Zealand aren't on there. Is anyone other than Australia posting attention to what they've done? Gone very very hard and very early to a 3 week total shutdown even when zero fatalities nationally. Seem to be trying to totally stamp out corona and then go close to bank to normal... That will be done extreme of the Anglo world results set I'm guessing. Edit. Just realised it's a death curve so if course they aren't on it Quote
Administrator Stan Posted March 28, 2020 Administrator Posted March 28, 2020 12 minutes ago, Harry said: A shame new Zealand aren't on there. Is anyone other than Australia posting attention to what they've done? Gone very very hard and very early to a 3 week total shutdown even when zero fatalities nationally. Seem to be trying to totally stamp out corona and then go close to bank to normal... That will be done extreme of the Anglo world results set I'm guessing. Edit. Just realised it's a death curve so if course they aren't on it Bit hard to tell but this is their graph of cases Quote
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