Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak

[The Artful Dodger]

14 minutes ago, Harvsky said:

What capacity are we at now? Based on what?Why 75%? What does that actually mean? Who does that benefit? What sectors? What industries? What are the fiscal alternatives for those sectors? What are the monetary requirements and options for the sectors credit lines in varied scenarios? What shape is that sectors forecasted recovery in varies scenarios? How long can any fiscal or monetary policy hold in that sector before needing a new round?

I never said worrying about the economy is liberatarian. Its the idea of what the economy needs that I said is libertarian. The reason it is mainly liberatarians is because they are the group whose philosophy overrides bothering to go into detail. 

My Office is 25%, that's far too low. How many small businesses rely on footfall? So, so many. You walk around nearby my office, decimated by the fact office workers are not returning. They won't recover from this. The forecasts I've seen have been for a depression which may even surpass the 1920s, we don't really know until October when millions of people will lose their jobs. The 'V shaped recovery' has largely been dismissed.

It's very easy for the comfortably jobbed middle class to say 'Nah, I'm fine staying at home' but we need these people more than ever to keep society functioning. At the moment it's basically the poorly paid going into work, whilst the rest stay at home. That has to change, otherwise the prospect is very grim. I think a lot of people enjoy thinking they're in 28 days later, but the reality is this is not a disease of anything like the potency in the more conservative estimates were saying at the beginning. It's the opposite of libertarian to ask society to think about everything and ask some of us to live with a little bit more risk so that the outcome of all this isn't as terrible as it might be.

Another thing which the world stopping is doing is knocking back far more lethal diseases like Malaria/AIDs/TB in Africa, they must wonder what the hell we're worrying about as they deal with diseases which wipe out half a mill children every year. 

https://www.health24.com/Medical/Tuberculosis/News/the-forgotten-killers-covid-19-destroying-gains-made-in-the-fight-against-malaria-tb-20200817-7

Edited August 26, 2020 by The Artful Dodger

[Honey Honey]

46 minutes ago, The Artful Dodger said:

My Office is 25%, that's far too low. How many small businesses rely on footfall? So, so many. You walk around nearby my office, decimated by the fact office workers are not returning. They won't recover from this. The forecasts I've seen have been for a depression which may even surpass the 1920s, we don't really know until October when millions of people will lose their jobs. The 'V shaped recovery' has largely been dismissed.

It's very easy for the comfortably jobbed middle class to say 'Nah, I'm fine staying at home' but we need these people more than ever to keep society functioning. At the moment it's basically the poorly paid going into work, whilst the rest stay at home. That has to change, otherwise the prospect is very grim. I think a lot of people enjoy thinking they're in 28 days later, but the reality is this is not a disease of anything like the potency in the more conservative estimates were saying at the beginning. It's the opposite of libertarian to ask society to think about everything and ask some of us to live with a little bit more risk so that the outcome of all this isn't as terrible as it might be.

Nothing in there about the current or potential fiscal options to address sandwich shops lack of or non-existent revenue. It's not get back there or else. That's the point. There are actually options to choose from. 

I posit this is more about an underlying attitude about the virus and not because of any actual economic detail that goes any deeper. Back in January and February you led the posts playing down this virus, blaming red tops and calling it just like any other flu. 41,433 UK deaths later you're here plugging the line that the potency isn't as bad as early conservative figures. I suspect a connection. The econony is almost a get out of jail free card for the kind of attitude that shafted the west in the first place.

[Honey Honey]

Story about middle class people working from home at a company in London someone I know works for. About 6 weeks ago the boss demanded everyone go back to the office or be sacked. The boss got covid. Killed his dad. Now in hospital on a ventilator. Office shut again.

[The Artful Dodger]

20 minutes ago, Harvsky said:

Nothing in there about the current or potential fiscal options to address sandwich shops lack of or non-existent revenue. It's not get back there or else. That's the point. There are actually options to choose from. 

I posit this is more about an underlying attitude about the virus and not because of any actual economic detail that goes any deeper. Back in January and February you led the posts playing down this virus, blaming red tops and calling it just like any other flu. 41,433 UK deaths later you're here plugging the line that the potency isn't as bad as early conservative figures. I suspect a connection. The econony is almost a get out of jail free card for the kind of attitude that shafted the west in the first place.

I've got many things wrong, will do again and I'll hold my hands up. I hope your blase attitude about 'sandwich shops', presumably from a sofa in North London, is correct and we do bounce back no problem. I disagree, some of us should be shouldering more risk than the others. Just like in terms of economics, when times are hard the well off should cough up more. When times are hard here the healthy should be prepared to take steps outside to help us going forward. This is not an equal opportunities killer and we should be spreading the risk to those that can most afford it, not just hoping it goes away.

Edited August 26, 2020 by The Artful Dodger

[Honey Honey]

16 minutes ago, The Artful Dodger said:

I've got many things wrong, will do again and I'll hold my hands up. I hope your blase attitude about 'sandwich shops', presumably from a sofa in North London, is correct and we do bounce back no problem. I disagree, some of us should be shouldering more risk than the others. Just like in terms of economics, when times are hard the well off should cough up more. When times are hard here the healthy should be prepared to take steps outside to help us going forward. This is not an equal opportunities killer and we should be spreading the risk to those that can most afford it, not just hoping it goes away.

I have nowhere said we would bounce back no problem. I am arguing that it isn't a case of needing to all go back immediately or else. I see no good case for the all or nothing economic argument put forward. Fiscal and monetary policies can be considered to buy time and aid in phased return. They provide options to consider in conjunction with the virus impacts and risk mitigation. 

There are serious risks to chancing it with rising case rates among the healthy. Most notably that it is exactly what caused the second massive jump in deaths in the US. The "healthy" take the virus back to the unhealthy and the unlucky. 

The current phased management approach with offices slowly returning is a risk aversion strategy fiscal and monetary policy has the tools to support if used correctly 

[Honey Honey]

Healthy people don't wfh to protect themselves. Wfh is to prevent spreading the virus. It's not all about the individuals personal risk. 

Statistically wfh supresses community spread which aids in lowering the risk of those who cannot wfh. Risk isn't equal so increasing the risk for everyone because of that inequality is self defeating.

Phased management using good quality data seems wiser than getting Pret back open tomorrow in central London when fiscal decisions can mitigate issues Pret have.

You fill restaurants. Was there a spike? No then open the next thing. Spike? No, open the next thing. Spike? Yes, hold, pause or reverse and so on. Fiscal and monetary policy can be used to allow for that strategy.

[The Artful Dodger]

2 hours ago, Harvsky said:

Healthy people don't wfh to protect themselves. Wfh is to prevent spreading the virus. It's not all about the individuals personal risk. 

Statistically wfh supresses community spread which aids in lowering the risk of those who cannot wfh. Risk isn't equal so increasing the risk for everyone because of that inequality is self defeating.

Phased management using good quality data seems wiser than getting Pret back open tomorrow in central London when fiscal decisions can mitigate issues Pret have.

You fill restaurants. Was there a spike? No then open the next thing. Spike? No, open the next thing. Spike? Yes, hold, pause or reverse and so on. Fiscal and monetary policy can be used to allow for that strategy.

You're right. I am putting too much stock in getting back to 'normality', I am very apprehensive about what happens at the end of October though. Sunak is already getting a lot of stick from within the Tories for being so 'generous'.

[Dr. Gonzo]

1 hour ago, The Artful Dodger said:

You're right. I am putting too much stock in getting back to 'normality', I am very apprehensive about what happens at the end of October though. Sunak is already getting a lot of stick from within the Tories for being so 'generous'.

I think it’s normal to be anxious about wanting to get back to something resembling “normal” as soon as possible. Personally, I am dying for things to be closer to having my life back.

Honestly, for me the whole pandemic has been a flood of anxious thoughts relating to how the west handles the virus.

Can we open things up more and have more people back to work... or will to many people die? Or will they have long term health issues after infection? Can we keep things closed down without too many people losing their jobs? Having absolutely zero faith in the government to provide any guidance whatsoever sort of compounds the anxiety.

Everything just seems so up in the air, it’s hard not to have anxiety about what the fuck we should do about covid

[The Artful Dodger]

49 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I think it’s normal to be anxious about wanting to get back to something resembling “normal” as soon as possible. Personally, I am dying for things to be closer to having my life back.

Honestly, for me the whole pandemic has been a flood of anxious thoughts relating to how the west handles the virus.

Can we open things up more and have more people back to work... or will to many people die? Or will they have long term health issues after infection? Can we keep things closed down without too many people losing their jobs? Having absolutely zero faith in the government to provide any guidance whatsoever sort of compounds the anxiety.

Everything just seems so up in the air, it’s hard not to have anxiety about what the fuck we should do about covid

What even happens in America, is there any equivalent to furlough? I can't imagine there is, surely that would be communism?

[Dr. Gonzo]

34 minutes ago, The Artful Dodger said:

What even happens in America, is there any equivalent to furlough? I can't imagine there is, surely that would be communism?

Nah there's no furlough - if you can't work from home and your work closed down... you're probably out of a job. A few small businesses got a bit of a "bailout" to protect their payroll to keep people employed - but those mostly went to bigger companies before going to smaller companies and then the government said "ooopsies our money ran out for protecting small business." A lot of states have put a moratorium on evictions because so many people can't pay rent - but once those moratoriums are lifted by the governors... there's expected to be a flood of evictions.

This is America too, so for a lot of people their access to proper healthcare is tied to their employment. So a lot of people lost their ability to get affordable health coverage in the midst of a global pandemic.

Looking at what's happened/happening/will happen to so many of the American working class during this covid crisis is the exact reason why the UK shouldn't follow in the US's footsteps and we should strengthen our social safety nets rather than weaken them so they provide essentially no safety net... like in America.

[The Artful Dodger]

Switzerland, Jamaica and Czech Republic added to the quarantine list. Just know Greece is going to get put on the day before I go.

[MUFC]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-53948820

[Carnivore Chris]

For fuck sake

 

[tlr]

Not strictly Covid, but there was some bloke on the bus yesterday who took his mask off to sneeze. Sadly you can't regulate stupidity.

Edited August 31, 2020 by tlr

[Stan]

9 minutes ago, tlr said:

Not strictly Covid, but there was some bloke on the bus yesterday who took his mask off to sneeze. Sadly you can't regulate stupidity.

Literally as stupid as those who constantly wear their masks when it's only covering their mouths and below their nose. Idiotic.

[Dr. Gonzo]

6 minutes ago, Stan said:

Literally as stupid as those who constantly wear their masks when it's only covering their mouths and below their nose. Idiotic.

I call this "dick nosing" - I imagine these were the same people that had a hard time coping once clothes were invented and walked around with their dicks out.

[Stan]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I call this "dick nosing" - I imagine these were the same people that had a hard time coping once clothes were invented and walked around with their dicks out.

Yes  

[Carnivore Chris]

Police went to stop a party and ended up staying, joining in and dancing. 

@Berserker, @Mpache

[Mpache]

1 minute ago, Carnivore Chris said:

Police went to stop a party and ended up staying, joining in and dancing. 

@Berserker, @Mpache

Oh my god 

That's Peru-levels of incompetent hahaha

[Carnivore Chris]

Crazy amount of daily cases in India. The highest amount of cases recorded by a country in 1 day.

 

[Cicero]

Oxford Coronavirus Vaccine Enters Third And Final Phase In U.S. Testing begins and they should get results around late November. 

[CaaC (John)+]

Coronavirus: 300 people attend a house party in Midlothian

Police have launched an investigation after more than 300 people attended a party at a house in Midlothian.

Officers were called to The Mansion House of Kirkhill in Gorebridge at 00:20 on Sunday.

The party was being run as a commercial event, with those attending ordered to leave and a 29-year-old man being issued with a fixed penalty.

Organisers have been accused of showing "blatant disregard" for rules aimed at limiting the spread of coronavirus.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon described the incident as "utterly irresponsible" and urged people not to attend house parties.

FULL REPORT

[nudge+]

Phase 1/2 trials of the Russian Sputnik V vaccine have been peer-reviewed and published: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31866-3/fulltext

 

[Bluebird Hewitt]

Caerphilly and Porth in the Rhondda having local outbreaks. Wouldn't be too surprised as people are simply refusing to listen at all, especially the millennial lot (seeing as Public Health Wales have also mentioned that the 'young adult group' have been reluctant to share details of where they have been and who they have been in contact with, proving my point further that there are many people who are simply not arsed in any way, shape or form and are too selfish to think of others. But hey, at least we can have that holiday). 

Cardiff has had a bit of an increase in cases as well. Not surprising after seeing videos and pictures outside Coyote Ugly where there was no social distancing just to get inside the place. 

Edited September 6, 2020 by Bluebird Hewitt

[Bluebird Hewitt]

Caerphilly will be going into lockdown from 6pm tomorrow, with people not being allowed to leave our enter the borough without good reason, according to the Welsh Government. 

Edited September 7, 2020 by Bluebird Hewitt