Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak

[Bluewolf]

4 minutes ago, The Artful Dodger said:

People aren’t going to abide such clear double standards. However much we might say they’re wrong, there is an absurd situation where a newly born baby can’t meet their family at the persons house but can down the pub. 

Even as an avid Tory hater I had some sympathy with the start of this, it was new, chaos nobody had a clue but now it’s just incompetence. The absolute priority should be test and trace. If we had that effectively set up we would be able to manage things so much better. I reckon Johnson will go soon; this isn’t what he signed up for. He wants to office without the responsibility.

Spot on... Totally agree with all of that.. 

In the beginning nobody knew what this thing could do and there would have been a period of gathering data etc while working on a possible control measures or solutions and that would have been forgivable but it's the total sluggish responses and constant u turns to all of it that are pissing me off... It's not as if we didn't have enough of a heads up from what was going on elsewhere in the world prior to it hitting us.. same is happening again and all we keep hearing from Johnson is "let's wait and see what happens" then we can decide what action to take.. 

Anyone else notice that Cummings has taken a huge backseat in proceedings lately as well?? Since Johnson came under fire over him there are a great many that believe he is the power behind the throne and I think Johnson has pushed him to the back to make his involvement less visible to everyone.. 

3 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

There's been rumours from various sources that Johnson will resign early 2021 after the Brexit transition period. Makes sense to me, he can dine out on having been Prime Minister and call himself the man who delivered Brexit while someone else cleans up the mess he leaves behind and has to put their name to the electoral pain the Tories might take in the coming years.

Sounds about right... If this second wave turns more serious and the NHS end up not coping or they don't get on top of the Track and Trace  in time it would be a absolute disaster for him and the final nail in an already mostly iron coffin from what's gone before.. 

[Bluebird Hewitt]

On 17/09/2020 at 10:21, RandoEFC said:

Pubs and hospitality is a difficult one in general. On face value, they're trying their best not to crash the hospitality sector by forcing it to basically shut down again. Bailing them out would probably become necessary and that' s a huge outlay for the Treasury and a further inevitable increase in tax for all of us down the line.

That's how it looks from a policy makers point of view. When it gets to ground level and you're told you can't see both sets of grandparents at once but you can go to the pub with 4-5 mates, yeah it feels pretty silly.

I fully understand what you mean there (though the part in bold would be more from the Welsh Government in this instance rather than the Treasury) in that it needs to be delicately balanced for both ends (economic and health reasons). However, as you mentioned afterwards, it really makes no sense that I'm now told that I can't see family (unless outside, which considering my nan can barely walk, is damn near impossible), but I can go to the pub (which Gething even said was the evidence behind why my area has seen a spike in cases), be surrounded with complete unknowns, get wankered and leave at 11.

In fact, after reading the responses since I posted last, these quotes pretty much sum up my general feelings about these new lockdown rules. 

On 17/09/2020 at 22:35, Dan said:

Their rules are a load of utter nonsense that deserve the contempt they'll likely be treated with. There are so many contradictions I've no idea how anyone takes them seriously.

 

23 hours ago, The Artful Dodger said:

Basically you’ll get kicked out the pub at 10 now, not much else changes fundamentally. 

 

23 hours ago, LFCMike said:

Apart from the fact you can't meet another household.

 

2 hours ago, The Artful Dodger said:

As far as I can see the Government want people to eat out, drink out, go to work, go to school but not see anyone whilst doing it. 

 

2 hours ago, DeadLinesman said:

You can’t see your family in the back garden because the Rona might get you. Meet them in the pub instead though, because it doesn’t transmit there!

I think DeadLinesman's one here is slightly different as I think we can see others in our back garden, but the general quote still stands as you can easily meet them in the pub 'by coincidence'. 

[DeadLinesman]

37 minutes ago, Bluebird Hewitt said:

I fully understand what you mean there (though the part in bold would be more from the Welsh Government in this instance rather than the Treasury) in that it needs to be delicately balanced for both ends (economic and health reasons). However, as you mentioned afterwards, it really makes no sense that I'm now told that I can't see family (unless outside, which considering my nan can barely walk, is damn near impossible), but I can go to the pub (which Gething even said was the evidence behind why my area has seen a spike in cases), be surrounded with complete unknowns, get wankered and leave at 11.

In fact, after reading the responses since I posted last, these quotes pretty much sum up my general feelings about these new lockdown rules. 

 

 

 

 

I think DeadLinesman's one here is slightly different as I think we can see others in our back garden, but the general quote still stands as you can easily meet them in the pub 'by coincidence'. 

Warrington has the extra lockdown measures now so no meeting up in private gardens. Pubs still ok though 

[Bluebird Hewitt]

20 minutes ago, DeadLinesman said:

Warrington has the extra lockdown measures now so no meeting up in private gardens. Pubs still ok though 

That's what I mean. It's fucking stupid. 

I can understand the protection aspect, but when you can still go out and get wankered while mingling with people you likely won't know, it makes it more farcical. 

Edited September 19, 2020 by Bluebird Hewitt

[Harry]

Below is a COVID trajectory comparison of my state (Melbourne/Victoria, in Australia) with key European countries including the UK, normalised for cases per million population.

We are the green line. We implemented stage 3 restrictions from July 7 (most kids home from school). And stage 4 (total lockdown, no childcare, stay home 23 hours a day) on August 2nd.

Note that the first waves look artificially low because the level of testing was way short of what was needed.

[Harry]

In Victoria the Murdoch press came out hard against our premier and against the idea of a lockdown. It's got plenty of wind and so many people now are more ropeable with the premier about the lockdown than they are about the death.

We are horribly divided. 

[The Artful Dodger]

My favourite pub is shutting today, it was on the cards before all this as the rent was doubled but I’m blaming Covid anyway. Will end up some cocktail bar full of southern students no doubt, fuck this virus. 

[Tommy]

1 minute ago, The Artful Dodger said:

My favourite pub is shutting today, it was on the cards before all this as the rent was doubled but I’m blaming Covid anyway. Will end up some cocktail bar full of southern students no doubt, fuck this virus. 

Funnily enough I don't even miss Pubs that much since Covid. It was mostly full of idiots talking bullshit etc. I really don't miss that kind of atmosphere. 

[The Artful Dodger]

Pubs are the best thing about English culture, imo. And I mean pubs, not bars/clubs.

[Carnivore Chris]

Americans protesting against masks in a supermarket

[Stan]

Utter stupidity encountered in Reading yesterday.

Went to their shopping centre with the missus. There's clear signs (several) near the lifts which say 'One household/family/couple' per lift. Simply because they're not that big anyway and it's just sensible.

We get in and then 3 other people follow us in. We say to them, politely, 'sorry it's just one household or couple per lift'. They didn't seem to hear us so we said it again. They turned around and got out but we heard them say 'everyone is so scared of this bloody Coronavirus'. 

Couldn't believe it, as if it's not caused a panedmic or killed 40,000+ people, or left people suffering after they have it.

Oh, and to make it even more stupid/hilarious, the guy who said it was wearing a fucking mask . 

What are you wearing a mask for you absolute pleb if you don't think it'll do you any harm? Why do you feel the need to wear the mask if you're not 'scared' of COVID too ?

 

[The Artful Dodger]

Maybe everyone should use the stairs? Nobody without a disability should use a lift imo. One of the big reasons that Covid is hitting us badly, which nobody seems willing to talk about, is because we are such an unhealthy nation. 

Edited September 21, 2020 by The Artful Dodger

[Honey Honey]

North East rule is households can't mix full stop. Whether indoors, outdoors, at the pub, whatever. You might not get full compliance but most older people I know and hear of are following the new guidelines.

Estimates in previous restrictions were for around 75-90% compliance. Highest compliance among over 60s.

That was sufficient back then to work. It didn't stop the attempts to blame non-compliance and set things up as if a full beach is the problem. In some ways that chastising acts as a deterrent against more breaking the rules. 

If the new restrictions don't work then blame can't be at the door of non-compliance but rather the insufficent rules. Non-compliance should be priced in to any rules.

[Harry]

An article from Melbourne I thought was interesting.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/melbourne-uni-chief-says-victoria-must-address-difficult-ethical-questions-20200919-p55x82.html

“The question everyone is skirting around here is what is the appetite in any country for disease and mortality associated with this virus,’’ he told The Sunday Age.

“Every answer to that question is valid in one way or another. If you were to say we have no appetite whatsoever for any deaths from this virus, that is a perfectly reasonable position to take, but you have to take that position knowing the consequences.

Professor Maskell says decision-makers must consider the role of quality-adjusted life year (QALY), a unit of measurement used by economists to predict and assess the impact of health policies. In simple terms, it assumes that a life near its end, whether because of disease or advanced age, is empirically different to a healthy life closer to its beginning.

“We have to look at this as an overall picture. My personal view is there should be some form of sensible, public health, QALY-based analysis done and tough calls made. It boils down to a basic but very hard moral philosophy: What is the value of a 90-year-old’s life versus the value of the continuing livelihood and happiness of a 25-year-old?’’ he said.

Professor Maskell arrived in Melbourne at the end of 2018 from the University of Cambridge to take over the running of Australia's top-ranked university. He spoke to The Sunday Age as part of a series of stories in which prominent Melburnians offer constructive ideas about Victoria's way forward.

Each day throughout the pandemic, Premier Daniel Andrews has detailed COVID deaths recorded in the previous 24 hours, routinely describing as “tragic’’ the deaths of people in their 80s and 90s, including some who were in palliative care before they were infected.

 

The Victorian government’s response to our second wave epidemic – broad suspension of commercial, educational and social activity to reduce the spread of the virus – stands in contrast to the approach being taken by European nations such as France, the UK, the Netherlands and Austria, where governments are resisting a return to lockdown despite facing substantially higher COVID case loads, and deaths, than we are.

As French President Emmanuel Macron said last week: “We must adapt to the evolution of the virus, slow down its circulation as much as possible. But we must do it by allowing us to continue living: educating our children, taking care of other patients, treating other health matters, and having an economic and social life.’’

Why has Victoria taken such a different approach? Professor Maskell wonders whether we are a victim of our early success.

“Australia dealt with it so efficiently at the start of the pandemic it became possible in people’s minds to eliminate the virus or keep it down at very low levels. If you look at Western Australia and South Australia and the Northern Territory, people would argue why can’t Victoria and NSW do that?

“In other countries, either because they decided to do this, as in Sweden, or they were a shambles, as in the UK, they have got used to this virus being around and people dying from it. There is an experiential thing there, not just a national characteristic.

 

 

[Stan]

6 month restrictions for the UK. 

Wedding numbers down to 15

 

[Smiley Culture]

Boris’ explanation of why a 10pm closure for pubs makes no sense. He says risk is higher once alcohol is consumed. That’s fine. However, all people are going to do is go out earlier and get slaughtered earlier and so, the risk of infection once intoxicated will increase at an earlier time. But I wouldn’t expect him to use common sense. 

[The Artful Dodger]

2 minutes ago, Smiley Culture said:

Boris’ explanation of why a 10pm closure for pubs makes no sense. He says risk is higher once alcohol is consumed. That’s fine. However, all people are going to do is go out earlier and get slaughtered earlier and so, the risk of infection once intoxicated will increase at an earlier time. But I wouldn’t expect him to use common sense. 

I’m not sure what it’s like where you are but round here many of the bigger bars are staying open till 3am-5am like they would do normally. These are places where people go at the end of the night when they’re fucked, social distancing non existent. I imagine that’s why the curfew is brought in, rather than pubs specifically. There is actually barely any evidence that pubs are a major source of transmission, they’ve been open 3 months and it’s only now cases have taken off.

[Smiley Culture]

24 minutes ago, The Artful Dodger said:

I’m not sure what it’s like where you are but round here many of the bigger bars are staying open till 3am-5am like they would do normally. These are places where people go at the end of the night when they’re fucked, social distancing non existent. I imagine that’s why the curfew is brought in, rather than pubs specifically. There is actually barely any evidence that pubs are a major source of transmission, they’ve been open 3 months and it’s only now cases have taken off.

Yes, but with the new rules, those who’d go out at 8-9, will go out at 12-1 and the risk of transmission through intoxication will just rise earlier in the evening. 

[RandoEFC+]

Yeah they're being really stupid by describing it as "pubs". They'd sound less dumb making the point that it's about the locations where people are cramming into bars and dance floors together at 3am.

[Honey Honey]

Clusters of cases are tracked on a weekly basis through track and trace data. Main culprits of clusters are care homes by far, again, then schools, workplaces and restaurants. However most covid cases can't or aren't being traced to a cluster. Probably because of asymptomatic carriers. That's where or maybe why household restrictions come in. You tend to only hear in the news if a cluster is found, maybe in a factory or a pub. 

[Stan]

5 minutes ago, Steve Bruce Almighty said:

Clusters of cases are tracked on a weekly basis through track and trace data. Main culprits of clusters are care homes by far, again, then schools, workplaces and restaurants. However most covid cases can't or aren't being traced to a cluster. Probably because of asymptomatic carriers. That's where or maybe why household restrictions come in. You tend to only hear in the news if a cluster is found, maybe in a factory or a pub. 

Is the test and trace stuff working?

Regularly hearing stories about the callers not having any calls to make and that it's then become a waste of money/resources...

[Honey Honey]

2 hours ago, Stan said:

Is the test and trace stuff working?

Regularly hearing stories about the callers not having any calls to make and that it's then become a waste of money/resources...

I think it would be fair to argue that it can't be working if cases are rising exponentially. However, there was an overnight rapid jump in cases within 24-48 hours of some schools going back. If you are running something administrative like this which has a steady level then bang it doubles it is going to be so easy to fall behind the game.

[Harry]

1 hour ago, Steve Bruce Almighty said:

I think it would be fair to argue that it can't be working if cases are rising exponentially. However, there was an overnight rapid jump in cases within 24-48 hours of some schools going back. If you are running something administrative like this which has a steady level then bang it doubles it is going to be so easy to fall behind the game.

Melbourne's contact tracing team was overwhelmed and was a big part of why we locked down again over winter. 

When cases start rising exponentially the time available per contract trace event starts reducing exponentially and the efficacy of the process drops away.

[RandoEFC+]

4 hours ago, Steve Bruce Almighty said:

Clusters of cases are tracked on a weekly basis through track and trace data. Main culprits of clusters are care homes by far, again, then schools, workplaces and restaurants. However most covid cases can't or aren't being traced to a cluster. Probably because of asymptomatic carriers. That's where or maybe why household restrictions come in. You tend to only hear in the news if a cluster is found, maybe in a factory or a pub. 

Incredibly worrying as schools simply cannot close again.

[CaaC (John)+]

That's wee Kaiden's 7th Birthday bash party with his friends up the shoot, just a wee family gathering tomorrow in the house and that's it, trying to explain to him why he can't have a party with his friends is hard but he understands a wee bit, I can't say it's because a lot of bloody moron idiots just can't follow the restrictions with social gatherings and masks and parties just to please their habits of drink and whatnot.